It's actually kind of amazing you have posted here considering I quoted your outrageous pre-release prediction that has already been proven completely insane earlier on the same page.L fucking mao.
I'll eat a whole family of crows if this thing is at 50 million by 2019.
Good luck though.
It's actually kind of amazing you have posted here considering I quoted your outrageous pre-release prediction that has already been proven completely insane earlier on the same page.
Let me refresh your memory again:
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=228248367&postcount=12595
What?
Wii sold about 12.7M units in Japan, it's less than what one should expect from a console leader in the market (15M +) and surely it was disappointing after the initial very strong sales but it's not terrible at all.
I love how your avatar underlines your post.��
Switch ain't no DS, guys.
It's actually kind of amazing you have posted here considering I quoted your outrageous pre-release prediction that has already been proven completely insane earlier on the same page.
Let me refresh your memory again:
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=228248367&postcount=12595
L fucking mao.
I'll eat a whole family of crows if this thing is at 50 million by 2019.
Good luck though.
Eh disagree there. That's a lot of consoles, even if it is popular. Doesn't seem like a lock to me, but something that would be surprising.Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.
I mean if Nintendo doesn't release a new handheld then the Switch just becomes handheld + console sales combined. 130 mil isn't that far of a stretch.
lolIt's actually kind of amazing you have posted here considering I quoted your outrageous pre-release prediction that has already been proven completely insane earlier on the same page.
Let me refresh your memory again:
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=228248367&postcount=12595
I don't think that 130 is a lock but yeah... We are still very early in the Switch cycle, once all the puzzle pieces come together we could see some massive sales worldwide.Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.
Duh?Great for a console. But no where near top selling iOS and android devices.
So then you expect the switch to move a staggering 130m units by 2022?And apparently the only ones out of their minds and don't know what they're talking about are Credit Suisse lol.
Yeah no
So then you expect the switch to move a staggering 130m units by 2022?
Couldn't fit in the title but Credit Suisse is apparently a big market analyst firm/Swiss bank.
12.7M for XX console in Japan cannot be categorized as terrible.12.7 M for Wii in Japan is terrible, compared to the almost 50M in the US. Compare that to the 3DS, where Japan is the largest single market. The OT prediction is based on that the Switch will sell a lot in Japan.
Behold the new 3DS phenomenon.
What even is this argument?
"If it can sell 130 million, what's to stop it from selling 160?"
100 million would put it on par with the PS1 and Wii lifetime sales (And with the way things are going, the PS4's). That's a fucking lot of units, and it's hard to significantly push past that. Only two consoles have managed to pass 130 million in the history of the industry.
Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.
It was a question from me to you, Credit Suisse is pretty much out of their minds if they expect the Switch to do 130 million by 2022.I never said that at all. But I see people who come here daily predicting 40 million lifetime and wonder why only the predictions on the more positive end of things are being considered ludicrous.
It's going to sell *well* over 10 million in its first 12 months on the market which only includes one holiday period and I'm to take 40 million seriously? Come on...
Wrap it up then ladies and gents! Switch to become the new PS2/Wii confirmed.Apparently? Haha. Funny. Videogame forum
I work for Credit Suisse and I can assure you these guys do little mistake.
Behold the new 3DS phenomenon.
Apparently? Haha. Funny. Videogame forum
I work for Credit Suisse and I can assure you these guys do little mistake.
Behold the new 3DS phenomenon.
On one hand, these guys are betting on this for investment guidance, so they have put way more rigorous thought into it than the average GAF-er.
On the other hand, financial analysts are wrong every day.
Really the take away should be less the specific number, and more the trajectory of success that they think this thing will take. Regardless of whether it sells 100mm or 130mm, investors see it being one of the best selling consoles of all time in a 5 year horizon and Nintendo being massively successful. So take that as you will.
Apparently? Haha. Funny. Videogame forum
It was a question from me to you, Credit Suisse is pretty much out of their minds if they expect the Switch to do 130 million by 2022.
40 million is also a stupid amount and it will get well past that.
Not from third parties it isn't. But we'll see. If third parties start to support Switch it could be a real monster. 2018 is key.The software IS killer and we are only on year one.
Given you now expect it to sell 'well' and maybe 80m, let's see what you said pre-launch:Delusional. I don't think you realise how much of a sales monster this system needs to be to reach that number. To outsell the Wii even. It's selling well but I get the feeling that there are some of you who think this thing is going to be the next PS2.
I think it'll just about outsell the 3DS at best. 80m tops and that's being generous.
Nope. They're making the exact same mistakes they did with the Wii U and then some. The price, bare bones launch line up and the complete fumbling of their online services will ensure Nintendo fans are yet again the only people that give a damn.
People who think Joycons and Zelda are going to be a good enough hook here are kidding themselves.
It's actually kind of amazing you have posted here considering I quoted your outrageous pre-release prediction that has already been proven completely insane earlier on the same page.
Let me refresh your memory again:
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=228248367&postcount=12595
I don't see this happening for any console in the world of the smartphone. Then again, I know the PS4 is doing crazy well, and recall people comparing it to the PS2, but I don't know if that was hyperbole.
Given you now expect it to sell 'well' and maybe 80m, let's see what you said pre-launch:
Question: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
I think it's just as insane to rule out 100 million as it is to guarantee it.
I think it's just as insane to rule out 100 million as it is to guarantee it.
I understand, I'll gladly take that risk though. I mean, if I'm wrong then that means a more healthy system and industry so it wouldn't be a disaster at all for me if I misprojected.Well if you want my opinion I am afraid you're out of luck, I don't do these predictions because the more you asset yourself the more silly you look when/if you're wrong. Especially in this instance, it's a 6 month old system and we barley know anything about future system sellers it'll have beyond 2017.
Your original comment was implying I did agree with the article which is what I took issue with, don't put words into my mouth.
I'll continue to watch others make fools of themselves then.
5 game platforms hit 100m (Game Boy, PlayStation, PlayStation 2, Nintendo DS, Wii).Because other gaming devices have already reached that number, that means the market can absorb those numbers. Only 4 have reached 100m as well, so the same can be said of your argument "what even is this argument". The market has proven before that 130m is possible, it has never gone beyond that. So 2 out of 4 consoles that sold 100m have gone through to sell 30m more. That's 50% of the consoles that sold 100m also selling 130m, but all 4 of them were cultural phenomenons. Had Nintendo supported the Wii the two final years of its life, it also might have gone higher as well. But it's silly to say "100 is possible, but 130 is not". I think Nintendo should be happy if it sells 3DS/PSP/360 numbers at this point, but it's just as silly to project 100m as it is 130m for the moment. But there is no reason why it should be possible to sell 100, but impossible to sell 130. There is a good reason why it might not sell 160 if it reaches 130, as the market never supported a device with those numbers before.
80m isn't really that 'generous' a ceiling. Switch is vastly outperforming 3DS globally, if that continues 80m would be a more reasonable floor.Delusional. I don't think you realise how much of a sales monster this system needs to be to reach that number. To outsell the Wii even. It's selling well but I get the feeling that there are some of you who think this thing is going to be the next PS2.
I think it'll just about outsell the 3DS at best. 80m tops and that's being generous.
5 game platforms hit 100m (Game Boy, PlayStation, PlayStation 2, Nintendo DS, Wii).
80m isn't really that 'generous' a ceiling. Switch is vastly outperforming 3DS globally, if that continues 80m would be a more reasonable floor.