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[Nirolak]

Update:

Worse than expected:

Ouch! Really bad news for Deus Ex: Mankind Division, the game performed well below our upper bound extrapolation.

According to MCV, No Man's Sky outperformed its nearest rival by 100,000 units, by the way, note that the second best-selling game of the month wasn't even Deus Ex: Mankind Division but F1 2016. This means that at best, Deus Ex: Mankind Division sold 38,000 units during its first week.

[Week 32, 2016] 01 (NE) NO MAN'S SKY (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) < 116,000
[Week 33, 2016] 02 (01) NO MAN'S SKY (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) < 22,000 / 138,000 (-81%)

[B]August 2016[/B]

1. No Man's Sky < 138,000
2. F1 2016 < 38,000
3. Deus Ex: Mankind Division

116,000 was the upper bound for No Man's Sky debut based on Uncharted 3, but since there is no way F1 2016 or Deus Ex: Mankind Division sold way less than 38,000 units (I roughly had F1 2016 at 40,000 for its first 2 weeks) I will go with 115,000 for No Man's Sky launch week, it has to be very close to the upper limit.

[Week 32, 2016] 01 (NE) NO MAN'S SKY (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) ~ 115,000
[Week 33, 2016] 02 (01) NO MAN'S SKY (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) ~ 21,900 / 136,900 (-81%)
[Week 34, 2016] 03 (02) NO MAN'S SKY (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) ~ 11,400 / 148,300 (-48%)
[Week 35, 2016] 07 (03) NO MAN'S SKY (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) ~ 7,300 / 155,600 (-36%)

After 2 weeks:

Deus Ex: Mankind Division ~ 50,000
Deus Ex: Human Revolution ~ 150,000

----

Original Post:

Given we got some info about sales targets from Jim Sterling, I thought this would probably interest people.

[Week 34, 2016] DEUS EX: MANKIND DIVIDED (SQUARE ENIX EUROPE) < 50,400 / NEW
[Week 35, 2016] DEUS EX: MANKIND DIVIDED (SQUARE ENIX EUROPE) < 14,100 / 64,500 (-72%)

[Week 34, 2011] DEUS EX: HUMAN REVOLUTION (SQUARE ENIX EUROPE) - 96,000 / NEW
[Week 35, 2011] DEUS EX: HUMAN REVOLUTION (SQUARE ENIX EUROPE) - 51,800 / 147,800 (-46%)

Note that the figures for Deus Ex: Mankind Divided are the theoretical maximum, the actual sales number is likely lower.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=215926837&postcount=4

Deus Ex: Human Revolution shipped 2.18 million in its first ~2.5 months, with 800,000 coming from North America, and 1.38 million coming from Europe according to Square Enix's old financial report: http://www.gamesradar.com/deus-ex-human-revolution-tops-square-enix-sales-218m-copies-moved/

Deus Ex: Mankind Divided is reported to need to sell 3 million copies to break even. However, given the $70 million Canadian budget, they probably mean 3 million full price copies: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1272853

Deus Ex: Mankind Divided's sales on Steam so far are 292,548 ± 14,091: http://steamspy.com/app/337000

Deus Ex: Human Revolution did eventually move ~3,586,377 on Steam between the base edition and the Director's Cut, but that was after much bundling and lots and lots of very cheap sales:
http://steamspy.com/app/28050
http://steamspy.com/app/238010

 

[Squire]

"I never asked for this" - most gamers, apparently

 

[swearing-circle]

That's a shame. The game is great.

 

[batman2million]

Sad. Its a really good game.

 

[TheGamingBox]

do any games do good in the uk anymore?

 

[JoeyJungle]

Wow, that's a shame. I wonder how much of this is because HR benefitted from pent up demand for a new Deus Ex, and how much is because of poor marketing. I feel like they did a huge blitz for the initial announcement, another mini-surge around E3/when they announced Breach Mode and Deus Ex Go, and then when it finally launched I felt like I only remembered it because I had it pre-ordered.

After Tomb Raider's flop last year, I wonder what the western half of Squeenix's financials are looking like. It's a shame that they've had two real good games that sold so poorly on consoles (though Rise of the Tomb Raider is getting a PS4 re-release in a few weeks). Hopefully sales in other regions look better than this.

do any games do good in the uk anymore?

Fifa?

 

[Kolx]

I mean yeah it's bad but shouldn't digital sales nowadays being bigger make the situation a little bit better?

 

[packy34]

Do these figures include digital copies?

 

[Crimsonclaw111]

I can only do so much by myself guys.

 

[reptilescorpio]

HR was one of my favourite games of last gen and I had planned on grabbing Mankind Divided but I'm still busy with No Man's Sky so I haven't made the plunge yet. I wonder if the huge commercial success of NMS has impacted it.

 

[FireBeaver]

Square Enix never asked for these sales.

 

[demosthenes]

I've been playing it and while it's not perfect it's pretty great so far.

 

[Rellik]

I may be blind, but I've not seen any marketing for it here. I only knew it was released because of this forum.

 

[Kill3r7]

Add 25-30% digital on consoles and it is still looking pretty bleak.

 

[SOR5]

do any games do good in the uk anymore?

FIFA and cod with the ladzzz

 

[Matt]

Do these figures include digital copies?

Add ~25%, maybe 30%.

MD ain't doin' great.

 

[Nirolak]

Do these figures include digital copies?

No, but even the best performing digital console games open at maybe 30% digital, which would still put the LTD below the first week of the previous game (assuming that sold 0% digital copies on console).

 

[Lunar15]

I've heard rumblings that SE isn't too happy with the NA launch either.

 

[SuperBanana]

Add ~25%, maybe 30%.

MD ain't doin' great.

Digital is much higher than 25% these days.

 

[Matt]

Digital is much higher than 25% these days.

No, it's not.

 

[Kyoufu]

Very good game let down by poor, almost nonexistent marketing.

 

[Kill3r7]

Digital is much higher than 25% these days.

Do you have a source for this? Because everything we know so far puts it somewhere between 25%-30%.

 

[Lylo]

To me feels like the hype for the game worn out really fast after the release. I don't hear much talk about the game now.

 

[dugdug]

This game took way too long to come out. Might have sold more if it came out when people were still excited for Deus Ex.

 

[SketchTheArtist]

Absolutely loved Human Revolution but I can't motivate myself to continue playing Mankind Divided. The pacing, especially for the first hour, is so slow and uneven. The story and dialogues are so generic and without personality.

The talking sequences are tedious to sit through. You just cut back and forth between Jensen and whoever he's talking to while they awkwardly gesticulate for a minute then question time comes.

Even visually it looks rough and uneven. Some characters look great, some really don't. The exteriors are flat and uninteresting but the interiors are nicely put together.

It's a shame. I was really looking forward to play it.

 

[zeelman]

I think the delay kinda killed any hype this game had. It seemed like SE was advertising this game a lot at first, but it all but vanished after the delay was announced.

 

[packy34]

No, it's not.

Somehow I find that incredibly hard to believe. I'm not doubting it, but it seems very strange that people aren't adopting a much more convenient method of content delivery at a faster rate.

 

[LelouchZero]

do any games do good in the uk anymore?

Grand Theft Auto V.

Pretty shocked to hear about the sales of this game, it's fabulous!
I'm guilty of not getting a copy of it myself though, I'll definitely be picking this up soon.

 

[JoeyJungle]

Digital is much higher than 25% these days.

I've seen some reports say that digital is 50% of all game sales, but a lot of that is probably due to sales pricing on digital games and the split isn't 50/50 at a game's launch (that's my understanding of it, please correct me if wrong).

I wonder if Squeenix will do a Deus Ex/Rise of the Tomb Raider bundle for the holidays? Given the poor performance of both, I could see an orange box-esque box containing both hitting retail in mid-decemeber. Is that crazy talk, or potentially on the table?

 

[benny_a]

Somehow I find that incredibly hard to believe. I'm not doubting it, but it seems very strange that people aren't adopting a much more convenient method of content delivery at a faster rate.

It is already being adopted quick. Going from ~5% to ~30% in the span or 3 years is quick.

I've seen some reports say that digital is 50% of all game sales, but a lot of that is probably due to sales pricing on digital games and the split isn't 50/50 at a game's launch (that's my understanding of it, please correct me if wrong).

Every time a publisher talks to an investor in publicly recorded sessions the numbers are a far cry from 50%. And they are also universal among the publishers for packaged full priced games. They are all slowly rising every half year when this is being asked.

 

[Conscience Falls]

Incredibly disheartening if this is the case. Especially given the rumours that Mankind Divided is just part one in the DXNG (Deus Ex Next Gen) story they've been working on for the past few years.
The marketing was nearly nonexistent for the game, the announcement trailer was great and appeared to generate some buzz but most in my group of friends didn't realize the game was even launching this calendar year after the delay.

 

[zeromcd73]

I may be blind, but I've not seen any marketing for it here. I only knew it was released because of this forum.

I've seen a fair bit of promotion here in Sydney (Aus). Some advertisements on TV, and a couple of videos on those electric board things around the stations. Certainly far more than most games get.

 

[dugdug]

Absolutely loved Human Revolution but I can't motivate myself to continue playing Mankind Divided. The pacing, especially for the first hour, is so slow and uneven. The story and dialogues are so generic and without personality.

The talking sequences are tedious to sit through. You just cut back and forth between Jensen and whoever he's talking to while they awkwardly gesticulate for a minute then question time comes.

Even visually it looks rough and uneven. Some characters look great, some really don't. The exteriors are flat and uninteresting but the interiors are nicely put together.

It's a shame. I was really looking forward to play it.

Agreed top to bottom. Already thinking of trading it in. Huge disappointment.

 

[Matt]

Somehow I find that incredibly hard to believe. I'm not doubting it, but it seems very strange that people aren't adopting a much more convenient method of content delivery at a faster rate.

It is happening pretty quick, last gen the percent was much lower.

 

[Nirolak]

HR was one of my favourite games of last gen and I had planned on grabbing Mankind Divided but I'm still busy with No Man's Sky so I haven't made the plunge yet. I wonder if the huge commercial success of NMS has impacted it.

I think it's just apathy for a game that's this late in the gen but doesn't look "next-gen" enough, and I don't just mean that graphically.

When you look at videos, it looks more like what you'd expect an early gen title to look like where the design fundamentals are rooted in last gen, but there's a level of polish and freedom on top by virtue of the newer boxes. By this far in, I think you're more expected to mix up some paradigms, especially for mass market singleplayer titles.

Assassin's Creed started running aground on similar issues, which caused Ubisoft to take some time off in pursuit of re-imagining the franchise.

 

[packy34]

It is already being adopted quick. Going from ~5% to ~30% in the span or 3 years is quick.

It's been a lot longer than that if you've had your foot in the PC market for the past 10-15 years. PC community accepted Steam/digital relatively quickly. It was bumpy at first, but there's no way it took as long as it's taking with consoles.

 

[Ninjimbo]

The game is a near masterpiece and gets ignored: what an industry and what an audience.

The next time some culture critic goes on a tirade about how AAA games aren't intelligent, or diverse, or serious, please tell them that a game called Deus Ex Mankind Divided came out and it was all those things and it cratered.

 

[reptilescorpio]

I think it's just apathy for a game that's this late in the gen but doesn't look "next-gen" enough, and I don't just mean that graphically.

When you look at videos, it looks more like what you'd expect an early gen title to look like where the design fundamentals are rooted in last gen, but there's a level of polish and freedom on top by virtue of the newer boxes. By this far in, I think you're more expected to mix up some paradigms, especially for mass market singleplayer titles.

Assassin's Creed started running aground on similar issues.

That's a very good point actually. When it was shown off it felt more like a warm hug to fans of HR rather than something like Watch Dogs 2 which is a hop forward into something more interesting than what came before.

 

[fizzwizz]

No, it's not.

Even so, that's not how percentages work.

If most games sell 30% of their copies digitally, you need to add more than 40% to the retail number to estimate total sales.

 

[Salty Rice]

Maybe people save their money for the Brexit and dont wanna pay 500&#8364; for a game.

Spoiler

/s

 

[Matt]

It's been a lot longer than that if you've had your foot in the PC market for the past 10-15 years. PC community accepted Steam/digital relatively quickly. It was bumpy at first, but there's no way it took as long as it's taking with consoles.

PC games also had a smaller retail presence than console games, and much more aggressive digital pricing. Also the PC game market is more digital and tech savvy.

The situations aren't really the same.

 

[Kagari]

Pretty sad that SE didn't really market the game much.

 

[luckygodzilla]

God this sucks, it's an amazing game.

 

[illusionary]

The game really deserves better than this - it's without doubt a GOTY candidate right now.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I think it's just apathy for a game that's this late in the gen but doesn't look "next-gen" enough, and I don't just mean that graphically.

When you look at videos, it looks more like what you'd expect an early gen title to look like where the design fundamentals are rooted in last gen, but there's a level of polish and freedom on top by virtue of the newer boxes. By this far in, I think you're more expected to mix up some paradigms, especially for mass market singleplayer titles.

Assassin's Creed started running aground on similar issues, which caused Ubisoft to take some time off in pursuit of re-imagining the franchise.

This is exactly why I haven't jumped in yet. Well, that and the microtransactions.

 

[z1ggy]

I really doubt the game will sell 3 million copies full priced.

I think it's just apathy for a game that's this late in the gen but doesn't look "next-gen" enough, and I don't just mean that graphically.

When you look at videos, it looks more like what you'd expect an early gen title to look like where the design fundamentals are rooted in last gen, but there's a level of polish and freedom on top by virtue of the newer boxes. By this far in, I think you're more expected to mix up some paradigms, especially for mass market singleplayer titles.

Assassin's Creed started running aground on similar issues, which caused Ubisoft to take some time off in pursuit of re-imagining the franchise.

You are right on this one. 5 years of work and we dont see a huge leap from the previous game.

And to be honest the marketing wasnt great.

 

[Strangelove77]

Absolutely loved Human Revolution but I can't motivate myself to continue playing Mankind Divided. The pacing, especially for the first hour, is so slow and uneven. The story and dialogues are so generic and without personality.

The talking sequences are tedious to sit through. You just cut back and forth between Jensen and whoever he's talking to while they awkwardly gesticulate for a minute then question time comes.

Even visually it looks rough and uneven. Some characters look great, some really don't. The exteriors are flat and uninteresting but the interiors are nicely put together.

It's a shame. I was really looking forward to play it.

It sounds like you're describing Human Revolution.

 

[JayEH]

Shame, really like the game and want to see more.

 

[Zophar]

Splitting the game in two might end up a blessing in disguise then, if good word of mouth propels people to buy the 2nd part.

 

[RoboPlato]

Really sad

Game is excellent