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Community Business Sales-Age Did Sony understimate demand by allocating only 10-15m till March 2021? Poll Inside!

Did Sony vastly understimated demand in their internal projections?


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Bitmap Frogs

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Dec 26, 2008
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There's also manufacturing realities to be considered... TSMC capacity is not infinite and they have tons of customers.
 

CAB_Life

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I would say they’re currently production and supply constrained—new console, horrible time for manufacturing. Those of you going off with your pie in the sky 20 million fantasies need to come back down to Earth and realize that no $500 box is going to light the world on fire when it’s in the grips of a global recession.
 

wolffy71

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Feb 19, 2014
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Im gonna second the notion that covid is what limited console production, not misjudging the markets.
 

Elysion

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Jan 11, 2020
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I agree with the others that Sony is producing as many units as they can. But I wonder what the official day 1 sales are gonna look like. In the US the PS4 sold 1 million within the first 24 hours after launch (including preorders), which was the most successful launch of a console until that point.

I could see the PS5 easily doubling that number in the US, meaning there‘s gonna be at least 2 million sold PS5s within the first 24 hours in the US. It‘s probably going to sell similarly when it launches in Europe the week after. Then there‘s Japan and the rest of the world… I expect there to be at least 5 million sold PS5s worldwide by the end of November. Since all of the launch shipments will be sold out in November, I expect December to be quite sparse as far as stock is concerned; maybe Sony manages to get another 2 million consoles into the hands of consumers in that month, which means a worldwide sell-through of ~7 million units by the end of the year.

As for next year, if I remember correctly, the PS4 kept selling around 1 million units worldwide per month for most of its first year, despite the lack of games. I expect that the PS5, with its much stronger lineup, will easily surpass that number, though maybe not quite as much as the launch numbers. So let‘s say it sells 1.5 million per month in the first quarter of 2021 (4th quarter of the fiscal year 2020). That would leave us with ~11.5 million sold PS5s by the end of March (in that case I expect a press release from Sony in early March or so when they reach 10 million).

I think that 1.5 million units per month is a realistic prospect for the rest of 2021 (at least until the holidays), which means Sony would sell another ~10.5 million between April and October, leaving them with an install base of ~22 million by the end of October 2021, making the PS5 the fastest selling console ever (a spot previously held by the PS4, I believe).

If the PS5 keeps selling at this rate after 2021 (and possibly more once the price drops), then I expect it to surpass 100 million units within the first five years. However, if the first five years are such a blow-out, then sales will probably decline afterward more quickly than usual for Sony consoles. Overall I expect the PS5 to end up at somewhere between 140 and 150 million units, surpassing the PS4 by 10 to 20 million.
 

ScaryBrandon

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Feb 21, 2014
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Ps5 in high demand? LOL. If you want to see what high demand means try to get an Ampere graphics card.
 
Feb 15, 2013
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They could manufacture 20m and they'd still sell out. But they're at max capacity, they didn't underestimate demand per se.

Ps5 in high demand? LOL. If you want to see what high demand means try to get an Ampere graphics card.

You can't be serious. Ampere is a paper launch. A few thousand uber nerds and scalpers buying all the limited stock is not even in the same ballpark as what is happening here.

Plus the Ampere hardware fault is going to kill sales off.
 
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Slings and Arrows

and Ceramide R
Apr 19, 2019
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Away with the fairies
I can't see real demand been as high as what is projected.

I just think we will see stock come flooding in in late october/early november and this is a classic 'supply and demand' marketing trick ready for Xmas.

Series S is still on sale on Amazon. X and PS5 are sold out
 

Unknown?

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Jan 5, 2016
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I can't see real demand been as high as what is projected.

I just think we will see stock come flooding in in late october/early november and this is a classic 'supply and demand' marketing trick ready for Xmas.

Series S is still on sale on Amazon. X and PS5 are sold out
Series S is a bad deal though. Series X isn't. Hopefully you're right though...
 

ScaryBrandon

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Feb 21, 2014
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You're a moron if you think they are even in the same light year of popularity. The PS5 has orders of magnitude more sales than nvidia extremely limited supply of GPUs
Indeed they are not. Ampere is way more popular and also more expensive as its a premium and cutting edge piece of hardware. Ampere release took the internet by a storm and crashed 3 out of 5 biggest e-shops in the UK with every relevant tech website and youtube channel covering it and struggling from the traffic. PS5 preorders went by like a wet fart in comparison.

The only two console gamers that I know secured their ps5 preorders easily while all of my pc gamer friends can't even dream to own an ampere card until December at least.
 
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JohnnyFootball

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Jan 20, 2014
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Indeed they are not. Ampere is way more popular and also more expensive as its a premium and cutting edge piece of hardware. Ampere release took the internet by a storm and crashed 3 out of 5 biggest e-shops in the UK with every relevant tech website and youtube channel covering it and struggling from the traffic. PS5 preorders went by like a wet fart in comparison.

The only two console gamers that I know secured their ps5 preorders easily while all of my pc gamer friends can't even dream to own an ampere card until December at least.
Wrong. So stupid wrong that you should feel embarrassed for even typing it. The supply levels for Ampere cards is a drop in the bucket compared to PS5.
 

ScaryBrandon

Has a powerful MS-Excel PC that plays some games
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Wrong. So stupid wrong that you should feel embarrassed for even typing it. The supply levels for Ampere cards is a drop in the bucket compared to PS5.
Nope I am correct. All the evidence is out there if you want to find it. Now stop embarrassing yourself.
 
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oldergamer

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We still don't know if the numbers of 10 million units was accurate. That number came from bloomberg who seemingly pulled the 15 million number and cutting it to a lower number out of someones behind.

I don't think 10 million for a quarter made sense. Not at console launch, and not at the current price point. It usually takes console makers (exclusion nintendo) 8 months to 1 year to hit 10 million units after launch. Part of that is dependent on how fast the consoles could be made, availability, and finally price.
 
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JohnnyFootball

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Nope I am correct. All the evidence is out there if you want to find it. Now stop embarrassing yourself.
Please show me where nvidia or ANYONE for that matter stated that there were along the lines of 10-15 million Ampere GPUs that were produced. This is so hilarious an argument you are trying to make.
 
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DaleinCalgary

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We still don't know if the numbers of 10 million units was accurate. That number came from bloomberg who seemingly pulled the 15 million number and cutting it to a lower number out of someones behind.

I don't think 10 million for a quarter made sense. Not at console launch, and not at the current price point. It usually takes console makers (exclusion nintendo) 8 months to 1 year to hit 10 million units after launch. Part of that is dependent on how fast the consoles could be made, availability, and finally price.
If Sony and MS can make 10 million for the first quarter I'd bet they would make them. But you can't have foxcom etc set up factories for 2.5 million a month then bring that down to 1 million/month after that because of retooling.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
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They could manufacture 20m and they'd still sell out. But they're at max capacity, they didn't underestimate demand per se.



You can't be serious. Ampere is a paper launch. A few thousand uber nerds and scalpers buying all the limited stock is not even in the same ballpark as what is happening here.

Plus the Ampere hardware fault is going to kill sales off.
I think he is being serious and it's pretty damn hilarious.
 
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DaleinCalgary

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Indeed they are not. Ampere is way more popular and also more expensive as its a premium and cutting edge piece of hardware. Ampere release took the internet by a storm and crashed 3 out of 5 biggest e-shops in the UK with every relevant tech website and youtube channel covering it and struggling from the traffic. PS5 preorders went by like a wet fart in comparison.

The only two console gamers that I know secured their ps5 preorders easily while all of my pc gamer friends can't even dream to own an ampere card until December at least.
I see what you mean but those cards aren't going to sell 10 million in 6 months if they have the stock available.
 
Feb 15, 2013
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Indeed they are not. Ampere is way more popular and also more expensive as its a premium and cutting edge piece of hardware. Ampere release took the internet by a storm and crashed 3 out of 5 biggest e-shops in the UK with every relevant tech website and youtube channel covering it and struggling from the traffic. PS5 preorders went by like a wet fart in comparison.

 
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oldergamer

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If Sony and MS can make 10 million for the first quarter I'd bet they would make them. But you can't have foxcom etc set up factories for 2.5 million a month then bring that down to 1 million/month after that because of retooling.
I agree with what you say. If they could they would. its why I don't think those were realistic targets to begin with. Sony isn't selling 40 million units in a single year, or if you believe what bloomberg says 60 million. those numbers are unrealistic and people should stop using them. I bet they would be hard pressed to manufacture 1.5 - 2.5 million units in a quarter, at least until die shrinks and component costs come down.
 

graywolf323

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I mean demand is clearly there but they can only produce so many units right now, I don't think they underestimated demand at all it's more Sony can only do so much to meet it right away
 

ScaryBrandon

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Please show me where nvidia or ANYONE for that matter stated that there were along the lines of 10-15 million Ampere GPUs that were produced. This is so hilarious an argument you are trying to make.
I doubt they will sell half of that by March which is similar to how much the ps4 sold but this time around the xbox is the better console.

Nvidia gpus outsold the ps4 during its lifetime and pc gaming has grown a lot in the past 7 years contrary to playstation which has stagnated since ps2.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Jan 20, 2014
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I doubt they will sell half of that by March which is similar to how much the ps4 sold but this time around the xbox is the better console.

Nvidia gpus outsold the ps4 during its lifetime and pc gaming has grown a lot in the past 7 years contrary to playstation which has stagnated since ps2.
I dont get the argument you are trying to make at this point. Take the L and move on.
 

danielJackson

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Jun 18, 2020
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Indeed they are not. Ampere is way more popular and also more expensive as its a premium and cutting edge piece of hardware. Ampere release took the internet by a storm and crashed 3 out of 5 biggest e-shops in the UK with every relevant tech website and youtube channel covering it and struggling from the traffic. PS5 preorders went by like a wet fart in comparison.

The only two console gamers that I know secured their ps5 preorders easily while all of my pc gamer friends can't even dream to own an ampere card until December at least.

And what the fuck does pc GPUs have to do with supply limited PS5 preorders?

If you point were "pc master race Dick is thiccer" then we already heard it. Ampere is hard to get also, so what?
 

jonnyp

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Jan 12, 2008
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There is a difference between underestimating and TSMC not being able to produce more.
 

Reallink

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Jan 7, 2008
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Indeed they are not. Ampere is way more popular and also more expensive as its a premium and cutting edge piece of hardware. Ampere release took the internet by a storm and crashed 3 out of 5 biggest e-shops in the UK with every relevant tech website and youtube channel covering it and struggling from the traffic. PS5 preorders went by like a wet fart in comparison.

The only two console gamers that I know secured their ps5 preorders easily while all of my pc gamer friends can't even dream to own an ampere card until December at least.

3080's launched with single digit thousands of units (as in less than 10K) for the entirety of North America. Amazon's US, Canada, and Mexico allocation was around 1000 units total. PS5 presold around 500K in NA based on Gamestop's individual store numbers compared to prior console launches. Your talking a 50x difference here. No idea how many units Nvidia could have actually sold, but it's nowhere near 500K.
 
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saintjules

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As many of you have witnessed, whether from afar, or personally, pre-ordering a PS5 has not been an easy task (especially outside the first half hour of the first pre-order wave when pre-orders “erroneously” went live after Sony’s Games Showcase). The PS5 pre-order thread and other individual complaint threads on GAF are witness to the trials and tribulations that many of our fellow Gaffers (and other gamers as a whole), are facing when trying to secure a PS5.

Many have speculated and attributed scarcity to scalpers, online bots, shady GameStop employee’s, whales etc... but the fact is, in the grand scheme of total demand, they represent a very small minority of sales compared to the hundreds of thousands, and millions being snatched up en-masse. The scalper resale market on eBay/Amazon/Craiglist is but a drop in the bucket when total numbers, in the millions, are added up. So while these practices may be frustrating, and may be preventing some of our fellow Gaffers from securing their PS5's; the bigger problem is that there is simply not enough PS5's to go around for everyone.

But if you think scalpers and bots are the only thing you have to worry about then you're wrong my friends. Entering the ring are the homeless.

Homeless people are securing PS5 pre-order spots to sell to desperate gamers in an effort to make a quick buck. Don't believe it? Kid you not..... it's that bad.


Millions of gamers worldwide are showing unprecedented interest in purchasing and pre-ordering a PS5. Whether you're in the U.S/Europe/Asia, you name it, the PS5's go up for pre-order and instantly sell out. You can check out German Gaf, UK Gaf, and NA GAF threads, here, here, here In the U.S, long lines outside popular Games retailer GameStop are common place. Gamers are daring COVID to camp out live for 6, 7, 8, 10 hrs or more with some going away empty handed after the effort. And this is just for the second wave of pre-orders. Even Sony's initiative to reward PlayStation veterans and VIP's a slot is getting saturated by interest.

Some musings....




If there is any positive to the madness is that one of gamings rites of passage, camping out for console launch pre-orders is alive and well. Which says a lot about the console's industry health. This will all be gone in an all digital future dominated by cloud subscription services and digital rental services where physical hardware boxes are extinct.

Anyway; this brings us to the crux of the thread.

Is it safe to say that Sony massively underestimated demand?
Should Sony have had better planning when it comes to making sure they had greater manufacturing capacity in order to meet demand?
Shouldn't the Nintendo Switch hardware sales been a big tell tale sign of the unprecedented demand for gaming hardware during COVID?
IF this is just the pre-ordering phase; how bad will it be at launch when we're practically seeing midnight launch type lines this early in the game?
Is the doubling of production by Sony (to 10m-15m consoles until March 2021) too little to meet demand globally in NA, Europe and Asia combined? Should it have been 20m-30m or more units?
Did Sony not see the writing on the wall when looking at the competitive environment (or lack thereof), its enticing launch line up, and the 45+ million PS+ subscribers that are heavily invested in the ecosystem?
Were did their projections go wrong?

Feel free to discuss these topics and post any crazy stories you've read or witnessed so far about your pre-ordering process for PS5s (or Xbox Series X/S).


Lol Dude, did you take my grandma photo and didn't credit me?

Grandma on line. Both stores had 6 units. Guess I'll just stick to my online orders!

 
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diffusionx

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Where is the option for “they made the systems they could but there is more demand”?

Where's the Poll option for "Why the fuck aren't all of those people in line wearing masks?"
It’s a hoax bro
 
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Tmack

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Sep 23, 2020
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I said they should have aimed to have 30 million before march.

That would be a record and the demand is there.

Yup but the cost to stockpile/streamline 30 million units whould be insane. Considering the estimate cost per unit, that`s like 15 billion dolars.
 
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Investor9872

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While I do agree that the PS5 would sellout every unit it can make, and that Sony could move 1.5 million PS5 per month for the first year... that is, if Sony can manufacture that many PS5. With the winter upon us in the Northern Hemisphere, we don't know how much COVID-19 will impact the production lines this winter.

I had made up my mind long ago to hold off for a few months to see whether Sony can manage the thermals efficiently with that 2.23 Ghz GPU. Now I've come to terms that I probably won't be able to get my hands on a PS5 until 6 months after launch, and that's all right! Hopefully, the XSX will not have any major hardware issues, so that I will be able to pick one up a month or two after launch for the Game Pass library. I'm thinking I will have a better chance picking up a XSX than a PS5 soon after launch, but who knows if the scalpers will cooperate.
 

phat_crazy

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They sold people on PS5 during the PS4 generation. Despite all the recent noise I don't think people understand the momentum Sony has with the PS5 right now.

In Europe the demand is insane. Out pacing the PS4 by a wide margin according to anecdotal reports. But what amazes me is that they're maintaining this momentum during a world wide pandemic.
The pandemic will contribute to the hype
Everyone will most likely be stuck inside and more people are gaming more than ever
People with PS4s want to take the leap to the PS5 now, especially with a handful of AAA game releasing within the PS5's launch window and Ragnarok coming next year if it can make it.
Ordering online is the wave now and due to COVID and high demand from the consumer and production side supplies will limit production throughout all of 2021
This is why I preordered to avoid having to deal with instant sell outs and "sorry can't add to cart"
The transition from this gen to next gen might be the quickest transition we have ever seen
 
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phat_crazy

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PS5 will even outsell the PS4 going by all the metrics I have seen, at least for the first few years.

After then, it's a question of whether Sony can keep up with PS4's steller 2nd half of its life in terms of exclusives and 3rd party exclusive content/marketing deals.
At least for me, based on its first year alone, it will
We are being spoiled as gamers
PS5 owners will get Spiderman MM, Ratchet & Clank, GT7, Horizon, and GOW Ragnarok within a year
That's not including other potential sleeper hits like the Returnal, Solar Ash, Little Devil Inside, etc.
The PS4 didn't have much its first two years until Bloodborne came along
It hit its stride a few years later with UC4, GOW, etc.
Once Sony started they didn't stop
I remember reading one Sony exec feeling extremely confident in the PS5 and how well it will sell because its release schedule for its first few years is unprecedented
He obviously didn't reveal what games he knows will be releasing and when
I can see the PS5 easily surpassing the PS4 in terms of sales, popularity, and games
 
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YeulEmeralda

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Demand for new consoles on both sides is through the roof.

It’s unfortunate that the last 7-8 years the programs that were primarily used on eBay to snipe people that were not really mainstream are now pretty easy to get and things such as 3000 series graphics cards and console orders are posted online within seconds of using these bots to snap up units

I hope retailers come up with better ways to manage this in the future

Why should retailers care? They are getting their money. Whether one guy/gal buys 10 PS5s or 10 guys/gals buy one each its not their business.
 

Kagey K

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It would look bad for them if shelves were stuffed after the preorder period ends.

This is where it’s going though. I sold 4 and was going to keep the other 4 for after Black Friday madness (but I think there’s going to ba ample stock soon) so I might just dump these as well.
 

ripeavocado

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I am pretty sure all this next-gen consoles shortage is artificial and marketing ploy to have some hype for the worst next-gen of the past 20 years.

They were planning to ship a ton of consoles and they are all sold out in September for months?

C'mon they are both weak consoles that haven't shown anything remotely "Next" and are launching with cross gen games.
 
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this stupid poll choices trend needs to pass already.

I actually see a ton of engagement on the polls in my threads. Way more than thread posts by a fair margin.... provided the options cover a wide range of potential takes. I love polls too. There is something to be said about a choice that aligns with your opinion at a click's distance being better than typing your thoughts out... which may just be the same as someone else who already posted on the thread. Plus you get to see the splits.
 
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