okay. so.
leading up to e3 or so, i was pretty confident in what nintendo was showing would be leading them to a console ready in 2016 with basically the combined support of the wii u and 3ds. after e3, it became even more apparent to me that they could very well likely have a platform that would support such an environment quite well. level-5, monster hunter, sonic, atlus titles, k-t stuff, and b-n stuff would probably be the majority of third-party support.
i had also not seen certain people posting and didn't account for what seems to be a total loss of square-enix support, aside from perhaps some token support in the future (like what happened with rise of the tomb raider, although i doubt nintendo will outright buy a title).
now i'm thinking there really is little left for them if sony's trying to consolidate japanese gaming to their side in a major way. i think that you can go with games announced in the last year as a decent barometer of the level of support nintendo can expect from third-parties.
recently, the monster hunter series has had a lot of support in the way of nintendo launching it next to new 3ds, getting monster hunter stories, that weird psp update, and monster hunter x. nintendo is also doing level-5 a solid recently and promoting inazuma eleven, lbx, and yo-kai watch, while also having been a longtime partner with them for professor layton. k-t and nintendo have made a lot of games together in the last five years. i don't think that relationship is going anywhere soon after the success of hyrule warriors, and the port to 3ds. atlus and nintendo have a solid relationship that seemed to be secured in 2012 with smt iv and smt x fe. in a similar situation, nintendo's been somewhat close to sega, having gotten exclusive sonic games out of them, and some worthless yakuza ports that probably wouldn't have happened outside of someone at nintendo asking for them in particular. if anything, i expect the next sonic to be a multiplatform title though.
i had actually thought the nx would get some support from square-enix too. the 3ds had seen quite a lot of it, with new franchises, big sellers, and some of their top franchises on the platform. now it seems it might get the token release if it gets anything. i'm actually wondering what might be left for them in japan for support, especially for a release in 2016.
perhaps sony had been going around in 2013 and started securing these kinds of deals while nintendo was unable to match them. it might explain why nintendo became a bit closer with level-5, platinum, capcom, k-t, and atlus in the meantime. for the first time, i'm actually thinking the nx's third-party lineup might be bare, as i had expected the ps4 to be a more western console when sony seems more keen on trying to recreate the ps1 in a sense.