• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Disney: “not sure there’s going back” to pre-pandemic theatrical windows

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Except right now D+ is propping up the company.

Remember that movie and theatre experiences are a small part of the overall Disney portfolio, which by and large is invested in bricks and mortar, and Cruise ships.

Unless Mr and Mrs Bob can entice people back into the parks, or the Disney Wedding Chapels, D+ is NEVER going to be a sustainable business model on its own. And they can quote all the nonsense sub numbers or fiddle the Quarterly Reports how they like, they're still losing money hand over fist at the moment.

Huh? How is Disney+ not sustainable, and what does it have to do with their brick and mortar/cruise ship businesses? And why are sub numbers "nonsense"? They don't even have a free trial anymore.. and it was only 7 days originally.

You are contradicting yourself.. how is it propping up the company if Dinsey+ isn't sustainable?

Obviously the rest of Disney is at risk, their parks, etc.. that's not what this conversation is about.
 
Last edited:

tsumake

Member
Well there's no way your home setup will ever look or sound as good as an IMAX theater.
Heck a lot of UHD home releases have cropped out the IMAX format, so you're not even seeing it the way it was intended.

If your options are your home setup or a "poorly calibrated projector", "sound so bad" and (loud) people, then I can understand wanting to be at home, but it also just means you've been going to a trash theater and should probably find a better one.

I hear ya. To be fair, people may not have access to a decent movie theater. One hopes there may be a remedy for that.
 

billyxci

Permabanned.
good. i hope cinema dies. should've died long before now. hopefully this pandemic is the death blow it deserves.

if Disney are abandoning it then likely the rest will follow. i hope i never have to step foot in a cinema again. despite all the shite of the last year a positive of it has been not having to deal with cinema bullshit. i can just watch stuff at home.

if people still want to cling onto the past them i'm sure some small independant cinemas will linger around catering to these enthusiasts. nah not me. i'll be chilling at home watching on my TV.
 

futurama78

Banned
Well like is a $10 streaming service enough money for CG in movies? Box office income is fun to track as well. Who wants to lose that?
 

futurama78

Banned
7billion a year? They must have hoarded money for 140 million budget movies. They could still do it at a smaller profit margin but they might be 80 million budget films. No bueno. What’s the profit margin for?

oh Black Widow is 200 million. So like what?
 
Last edited:
Except right now D+ is propping up the company.

Remember that movie and theatre experiences are a small part of the overall Disney portfolio, which by and large is invested in bricks and mortar, and Cruise ships.

Unless Mr and Mrs Bob can entice people back into the parks, or the Disney Wedding Chapels, D+ is NEVER going to be a sustainable business model on its own. And they can quote all the nonsense sub numbers or fiddle the Quarterly Reports how they like, they're still losing money hand over fist at the moment.

Of course it will. All 3 Disney streaming services will likely be profitable by themselves by 2024.
 

Alebrije

Member
Meanwhile in Mexico :


Also in most of other states Movie theatres have been opened since november 2020..not a full capacity but open..

No matter what setup you have in home it will never compare to going to a MT...Guess the industry will pevail but with less MT on most of places.
 
Last edited:

jason10mm

Member
Be interesting to see the second order effects of fewer theatrical releases.

Used to be a major expense was advertising, up to or even more than the films budget. Hard to imagine anyone dropping much for a streaming film.

Plus principle actor pay was usually based on earnings or even residuals, in a streaming world those guys go back to a straight paycheck because how do you calculate "profit" and "re-runs"? Does this emphasize or minimize the actor as a selling point? (I'd argue that it increases the need for a known actor as a selling hook, and REALLY stresses the need for a known IP).
 

SegaShack

Member
Well there's no way your home setup will ever look or sound as good as an IMAX theater.
Heck a lot of UHD home releases have cropped out the IMAX format, so you're not even seeing it the way it was intended.

If your options are your home setup or a "poorly calibrated projector", "sound so bad" and (loud) people, then I can understand wanting to be at home, but it also just means you've been going to a trash theater and should probably find a better one.
I've been to many theaters and have yet to find a good one unfortunately. Guess it all depends on peoples options.
 

Goro Majima

Kitty Genovese Member
I think the social experience of going to the theaters is a bit overrated.

Sometimes the experience is closer to being a passenger on an airplane where the whole event is ruined because you're subject to the terrible behavior of other people. Watching movies at home with surround sound and an 85" TV completely eliminates that. Plus I don't have to guess if there's a lull in the movie for me to time my bathroom breaks.
 

sol_bad

Member
Disney just restructured the entire company around streaming. Previously contracts would have a guaranteed theatrical release in them, going forward they don't; which gives Disney the freedom to release a movie however they want.

Cmon ManaByte ManaByte you should know what that means considering you follow the industry. It means they will produce more content for Disney+, it does not mean they'll abandon theatrical releases. I feel that some people are accidentally or intentionally misinterpreting that announcement.

This announcement was in October 2020 and then we saw that decision in action at their investor day in December 2020. There was a lot of digital content announced at the investor day but they still had a lot of theatrical releases. Theatrically 2021 and 2022 are still getting 3-4 MCU movies, 1-2 Disney animation films, 1-2 Pixar films and 1-2 Disney live action films. Nothing has changed.

It also means they have a division that decides if a movie will get released theatrically or on Disney+. We saw that decision making in action with Artemis, they realised it was a POS film and dumped it on Disney+. With Artemis, it was changed from a theatrical release to a Disney+ release but I can't see Disney changing where a movie will be released during production anymore, I think the decision will be made during pre-production. Artemis was greenlighted way back in 2013 and had a director by 2015, not released until 2020 so it was in a really weird position.
Mulan, Soul and Raya were put on Disney+ just because of the pandemic and it's a shame for Soul and Raya as Disney missed out on potential hundreds of millions in profit. It also makes good business sense to release movies like Flora & Ulysses and Timmy Failure on Disney+ as no one knows what they are and I doubt they would have made a dent in the box office.

And all the people talking about % of box office profit like it's a bad thing. It's still profit they miss out on if they skip a theatrical run. I think everyone here agrees though that tent pole films will still get theatrical first releases.

Someone mentioned Nomadland as an example of a movie being a home release instead of theatrical release. Many many people will choose not to watch this at the cinemas because it's not a big tent pole release but as a film lover ...... this film was amazing on the big screen. Such a beautiful looking film and full of so much emotion. Theatrical is the way I'd choose to watch it and for these smaller films I really hope they go the duel release instead of dumping them on VOD / theatrical.
I can't justify spending $30aud on a new release rental when I could just wait a few months to buy and keep the movie for $30aud. I only spent the rental money on Mulan as my wife was very excited to watch it *sigh*. I wouldn't do the same with Raya if there was no theatrical release here.
 

NickFire

Member
I am completely on board with watching movies from home sooner than we could pre-covid. But I found this funny still: "Particularly since now they’ve had the luxury of an entire year of getting titles at home pretty much when they want them"

I mean, sure, that happened for some people on occasion. But pretty much everything I wanted to see a year ago was postponed like 5 times. So get with it Disney et al, and release Top Gun 2 on Friday, and Halloween on Saturday.
 

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Plus principle actor pay was usually based on earnings or even residuals, in a streaming world those guys go back to a straight paycheck because how do you calculate "profit" and "re-runs"? Does this emphasize or minimize the actor as a selling point? (I'd argue that it increases the need for a known actor as a selling hook, and REALLY stresses the need for a known IP).

This is where a lot of the resistance from typical Hollywood players come from; not just from actors, but from directors and producers. The WB situation really highlighted this; it was particularly egregious considering the contacts were already signed, with absolutely nobody assuming the B/O of these movies would be cut off by COVID or of course, WB releasing on streaming day and date.

I think that's a solvable problem as long as the money is there; and I personally believe it is. But it's a change, and change is scary.
 

Valonquar

Member
It isn't like theatrical released movies don't get pirated too. I remember watching Attack of the Clones, and Kill Bill at home the day they were released in theaters. Not cam rips either.
 
good. i hope cinema dies. should've died long before now. hopefully this pandemic is the death blow it deserves.

if Disney are abandoning it then likely the rest will follow. i hope i never have to step foot in a cinema again. despite all the shite of the last year a positive of it has been not having to deal with cinema bullshit. i can just watch stuff at home.

if people still want to cling onto the past them i'm sure some small independant cinemas will linger around catering to these enthusiasts. nah not me. i'll be chilling at home watching on my TV.
You sound like a person who enjoys watching shit with the motion smoothing on & color temperature set to "cold."
 

K' Dash

Member
I'm not paying them anything to watch movies on Disney+, if Netflix can deliver original movies and shows at a constant pace at no extra cost, Disney can definitely do the same.

I would understand if they put their movies on a different rental service, but having a pay wall to rent a movie is stupid, they can go fuck themselves.
 

sol_bad

Member
I'm not paying them anything to watch movies on Disney+, if Netflix can deliver original movies and shows at a constant pace at no extra cost, Disney can definitely do the same.

I would understand if they put their movies on a different rental service, but having a pay wall to rent a movie is stupid, they can go fuck themselves.

Someone doesn't understand how the 2 businesses work.
 
I like the experience of going to a theater. I get a rush from the energy of watching a big screen with a group of people. I like going to the mall for the energy of the people too. It’s not the same without the people.
 

Aces&Eights

Member
Meanwhile in Mexico :


Also in most of other states Movie theatres have been opened since november 2020..not a full capacity but open..

No matter what setup you have in home it will never compare to going to a MT...Guess the industry will pevail but with less MT on most of places.
That is purely subjective, though. The "never compare" part. To you, sure. For me? I have an OLED ceiling mounted at the foot of my bed. Surround sound in the room as well. I find extreme diminishing returns on screen size as I just don't see any extra "wow" from my large OLED to a movie theater where I am sitting 30 get away from it. The ability to lay in bed with the wife and dogs and watch a crystal clear image with awesome sound is way better (to me) than sitting in a chair with other people around making noise and just, well, being people. Not a fan of people. This isn't even considering not having to drive, pay to park, pay for snacks, can't hit pause and can't fiddle with the sound to make it to my liking. If some think parking, people, paying 30 bucks for snacks is well worth the price to have a huge screen and tinitus inducing sounds scapes then more power to them. Doesn't mean they are right, though
 

sol_bad

Member
I'm assuming the people who hate the cinema here haven't been to one in 10+ years or if they have it's probably been 2-4 times in the last 10+ years.
:D
 

NahaNago

Member
The release window of movies to online stores might be moved up but I can't see them doing day and dates next year with the big blockbuster billion dollar potential movies.
 

K' Dash

Member
Someone doesn't understand how the 2 businesses work.

please explain, not being sarcastic, I'm curious.

from my point of view, Netflix invests a huge amount of money on original movies and shows they deliver constantly at no extra cost, why does Disney get a pass?
 
Last edited:

sol_bad

Member
please explain, not being sarcastic, I'm curious.

from my point of view, Netflix invests a huge amount of money on original movies and shows they deliver constantly at no extra cost, why does Disney get a pass?

It's just that the 2 companies fundamentals are completely different. Netflix have been working with a loss of money where as Disney ensure they are positioned to make profit.

Netflix is all about throwing as much shit at a wall as possible to see what sticks. Some of it works, the majority of it doesn't. When it comes to their TV shows, half of their originals are actual originals, the other half is just licensed from other countries to stream on Netflix in another country and generally people have no idea what is what. The majority of Korean shows and anime shows are just licenses and Netflix had nothing to do with production. There is a huge difference between making an original production from scratch and just licensing a show. Netflix have been in the red for 10 years or so and only just last year went black and this was primarily due to a pandemic year, if it wasn't a pandemic year they'd still be in the red.
Netflix have raised their price to allow them to throw more money at more shit. I think Netflix need to cool it with buying 140 different things for a single year and really double down on a lower number of productions that they have faith in. Less productions and higher quality.

Disney on the other hand is all about calculated decisions and ensuring they earn profits. Everything they release is greenlighted and funded by them or one of the studios they own. Even though they fund everything, not everything sticks of course, you can look at examples like Dumbo and the Lion King remake. You can see Disney actually put faith in productions and I feel that is very different than buying 60 films and 60 TV shows in a single year.
You can see that Disney make smart business decisions with Disney+ as well, they released the streaming service at a low price and for the first year it had very limited original content, even if the pandemic didn't hit there was still barely any original content for that first year. Disney had no idea how successful their platform would be or if it would be successful at all so they had low expenditure for that first year. Now they know it's more successful than they imagined and they have gone full force with original programing. As mentioned in this thread Disney increased their price and I think that is fair considering they are making the most expensive TV shows that have ever been produced, WandaVision for example costs more than the majority of an of the MCU films.
They have Loki, Hawkeye, Ms Marvel, What If?, Moon Knight, She-Hulk, Secret Invasion, Iron Heart, Mandolorian season 3, Boba Fett, Ahsoka, Obi-Wan, Andor, The Bad Batch and Turner and Hooch amongst other shows in active development.

The 2 streaming services have very different target demographics of course. Disney+ caters to the Disney/Pixar/Star Wars/Marvel fans whereas Netflix is trying to make everyone happy. You can compare Netflix to anyone though and see that they work very differently to the norm. Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Apple+, HBO Max, Paramount+, any of the network channels, any of the cable channels, they all focus on lower productions and try to ensure quality and profit. Netflix is the only crazy cowboy that buys/produces over 100 new things a year.

I'll stay subbed to Disney+ and Netflix but personally I am very rarely excited about a Netflix original film. Movies like Marriage Story and 6 Underground are very far and few between. Of course 6 Underground isn't a great film but it's a stupid fun film and the production quality is equal to the usual Hollywood fare, nothing else has come close from Netflix.

Going back to Mulan, Soul and Raya and the Last Dragon on Disney+, it's important to understand that these films were made for theatrical release and studios expect a return on a theatrical release, Disney+ was never in the equation for these films. Disney have been experimenting during the pandemic. Mulan and Soul were both financial failures and both lost Disney millions of dollars. Raya is going to have a wider theatrical release but it's still most likely going to lose Disney millions of dollars even more so if they don't charge the premium price on Disney+. I can understand people not wanting to pay the premium. I personally don't want to either but I will see Raya at the cinemas this weekend.
Warner and AT&T are an entirely different beast with their 2021 theatrical films, they are going to lose money on every one of those releases. The only way Disney or Warner would be making money on their theatrical titles via releasing them for free on their streaming platforms is if they gain enough new subs on release week to equal what they would make at the box office. This is not happening though, sure there are sub spikes when Mulan, WW84 and Raya are/get released but it's not enough to equal what they'd make at the box office.

I'm pretty sure Disney are close to making 1 billion a month with Disney+ so realistically they could release at least 1 Hollywood quality film a month at this point. Make a 200 million dollar film, there is still 600 million in profit there. But then you take into account the shows they make for the service and the lower budget films and those profits start diminishing quite quickly. WandaVision is a 225 million dollar show, basically 100 million in costs a month, that's 500 million in profits.
Even when they hit 180 million subs they still need to ensure they are making substantial profit. It's pointless if they are throwing out 50 productions a month and only making 100 million profit. They are a company, not a charity.

Sorry for the long rant.
o_O
 

Reallink

Member
Gotta big TV, a 7.1 system and a couch my arse has made a perfect dent in.

Close them fuckers up, boy.

Problem is made for Netflix/D+/Amazon movies typically have shit-tier sound mixes as they have to assume 95% of their audience are using TV/Phone speakers at worst or a $100 soundbar at best. As a result there is typically very little meaningful LFE and surround content in streaming exclusive content, and when there is, it's lower quality dressing. With cinema releases they know 99% of their audience are viewing on 6 and 7 figure surround systems and the production houses budget the audio accordingly.
 
Last edited:
I guess this is a sign from the elite that things are never getting back to normal. They want to keep us on permanent lockdown. The streaming is part of a propaganda campaign to normalize this. They have already done Marvel characters with a pro mask infomercial. We know they have tremendous political power, and Biden and Fauci have both recently stated that despite the vaccine (which they are both on) we cannot get back to normal and will resume the question in another year. These companies have political insiders, they have probably known that for a while now, and used it to shape their business strategy, much like how they are shaping political policy. It is an unfortunate and fascistic combination of corporations and state power.

So it seems like these companies have decided that this is the best thing for them financially, for us to be locked down at home, with no movies in the theater. They can make more money that way. Ticket sales were falling drastically, necessitating an appeal to the Chinese communist government, which now runs the USA. Parks are shut down, so this is really their only revenue source, so the best thing to do is charge people for streaming services. That way instead of a $15 ticket once or twice a year, the person is paying you $79.99 per year PLUS you can charge them $30 extra for new releases. People that were spending under $50 a year to see a handful of films are now at a baseline of over a hundred dollars if they see more than 1 new movie.

It's funny, when I heard that Mulan was $30, I was amazed. First of all, people are already paying for the service, right? Second of all, that is twice what expensive tickets where in movie theaters pre-pandemic. Plus way more people will be paying to see this in a year with no other movies, there is a captive audience.

But people will pay it. Because what else are they going to do? The state gov'ts have decimated the country's economy and left nothing else for people to do. Plus apparently it is a lot of fun to have a dick measuring contest with you entertainment setup, as seen in this thread.
 
Last edited:

sol_bad

Member
Disney are actually making less money if they have Mulan or Raya on Disney+ for $30. A family of four would have to pay $60 or so to see a film. That same family just pays $30 for the home convenience but then they could lend their account to other friends and families. There is no limit to how many people can watch Mulan or Raya for that $30.

Read my post above about theatrical releases, Disney and Warner are still losing money even if they do charge $30.
Not everything is political.........
 

JSoup

Banned
But people will pay it. Because what else are they going to do?

Pirate it. Most of the trackers I use reported Mulan being not just the number one shared movie the day it was released, but was easily already in the top three most downloaded torrents ever.
 
Another reason why they want to do digital only is refunds. When I used to see a terrible movie, I would demand and get a refund on the spot. You can't do that if you buy digital.
 

sol_bad

Member
Pirate it. Most of the trackers I use reported Mulan being not just the number one shared movie the day it was released, but was easily already in the top three most downloaded torrents ever.

Another reason why duel releases will just have the studios lose money.
(Y)
 

Malcolm9

Member
My biggest hate in going to the cinema are the people who can't eat properly or have their hand in a crisp/sweet/popcorn bag the entire movie.

I usually see a film at least a month after release to avoid these people.
 

Salz01

Member
Its ironic, because Disney killed the movie experience for me a couple of years ago. I haven’t stepped into a movie theater since I saw The last Jedi. That movie alone just soured the whole experience.
 
Top Bottom