Shining Sunshine
Banned
About point 2, we didn't lose anything. The nongamer Wii crowd were never interested in gaming. The Wii was a fad that came and gone for that crowd.
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Does anyone still not think console gaming is in trouble?
- Thread starter Kimawolf
- Start date
PeakPointMatrix
Member
How did I miss this gem. Hoo boy.
How about you tell Nintendo about this sagely advice. If you make more it will sell more! Unless it's bad, then it won't sell more!
HMMM.
Byakuya769
Member
Only thing I'm convinced of is that I was right for calling the wii a fad and right for predicting tablets and phones to eat into the gaming market (rip Cloving). I think the handheld market is definitely in trouble, home consoles are being unfairly compared to last gens aberration that included the wii.
CheDominik
Member
It doesn't need to die, it needs a wake up call.
I have read that UC2 only cost $20 Millions to make. Compare that with figures we got from TR and it sure is mindboggling. First thing they should do is cut down on these huge bloated marketing budgets(I don't even want to know Titanfall's marketing budget).
Games like Beyond turned a profit although some people said it was sent out to die by Sony marketing. Seems like the opposite is true.
Its becoming increasingly difficult to figure out who is serious and who is taking the piss on here.
GTA is a positive, but not the sort of thing that's particularly healthy or can be sustained. Imagine if GTA V didn't meet expectations? Both Rockstar and 2k would be in a huge hole right now, but luckily it did pretty well. Who's to say the next GTA or similarly budgeted game would be as successful? The AAA industry is incredibly risky and while cases like GTA are a good sign, not every developer or publisher has the same luxury.
entremet
Member
Not in trouble, but it expanded--read: studios trying to chase the AAA dollar--too quickly.
Gaming as a whole has a bright future in DD only platforms like mobile and PC.
As a boxed retail product it will continue to sales go down YOY.
I also love it how GTA5 is mentioned when so many games last generation didn't meet their expectations in sales. GTA is not the norm.
Gaming as a whole has a bright future in DD only platforms like mobile and PC.
As a boxed retail product it will continue to sales go down YOY.
I also love it how GTA5 is mentioned when so many games last generation didn't meet their expectations in sales. GTA is not the norm.
Disaster Nebraska
Banned
I think all gaming is "in trouble", some platforms moreso than others. But that isn't because of smartphones killing such-and-such or PCs dying, or PCs taking over, or consoles dying, or anything like that.
It's simply the macroeconomic conditions. 80s-early 2000s were a period of population growth, economic growth, an expanse of the gaming demographics (kids w/ allowances became adults with jobs), an expanse into new territories, a rise in popularity of gaming, etc.
And now we're on a downturn. It has less to do with gaming and more to do with the economy in general.
It's simply the macroeconomic conditions. 80s-early 2000s were a period of population growth, economic growth, an expanse of the gaming demographics (kids w/ allowances became adults with jobs), an expanse into new territories, a rise in popularity of gaming, etc.
And now we're on a downturn. It has less to do with gaming and more to do with the economy in general.
100% agree with this.
Consoles are, essentially, just a platform for gamers to access games. What those games are and how they're delivered are separate issues to "are consoles dieing/dead". If the AAA industry is in trouble, and if we start seeing less of them on shelves, then that isn't necessarily a problem for consoles or for console gaming.
Even some of the most "Joe Sixpack" guys I know have started trying out new things due to the continual rise of PSN and the games on it. Microsoft might need to make some changes but I think Sony are and will continue to be fine on that front.
Games are games. Call of Duty, Madden, FIFA, Battlefield, Assassins Creed, GTA etc might still drive console sales for many, but there's plenty more going on and plenty more reasons to own a console besides.
I should have clarified that I think it would affect the console/PC/handheld world. The iOS/Android world I still kind of treat as a parallel universe that's pretty separate from the gaming world most of us acknowledge.
Point 1: The complete collapse of the Wii U.
Poorly executed console
Point 2: The loss of the true casual gamer.
You are misinformed. This group has gone nowhere.
Point 3: Studio closures/crazy sales
One closes one opens. Sometimes multiple open.
Point 4 PS4 and XB1 sales
This right here debunks your argument.
Poorly executed console
Point 2: The loss of the true casual gamer.
You are misinformed. This group has gone nowhere.
Point 3: Studio closures/crazy sales
One closes one opens. Sometimes multiple open.
Point 4 PS4 and XB1 sales
This right here debunks your argument.
Saint Gregory
Member
If this is true then we should be concerned because the console market shrank last gen if you subtract the Wii and last gen was the longest gen ever.
I do agree with everyone saying that the Wii U should not be considered an indication that the market isn't healthy and it's way too soon for doom and gloom threads about the current gen but there have been subtle warning signs for ages that the overall home console market is contracting.
LegendofLex
Member
It is a gem. As long as your product has any demand momentum behind it, it's not hard to sell the first few million consoles. It's just a matter of getting them to market.
The problem with Wii U is it had very poor demand momentum going into launch. Even still, it managed to sell pretty well at launch. It was after that that it dropped to no momentum and thus the supply stopped flowing.
We still don't know what the PS4's actual demand is. I'm starting to see that constant sell-outs are no longer a given, so the demand is probably pretty average. But since PS4 is definitely not Wii U levels of bad in terms of the way Sony has driven demand, no one should be (or is) surprised that the stock is selling.
ElRenoRaven
Member
Oh look another chicken little. Console gaming is fine. Publishers who can't actually budget and produce games within a proper budget are dying but that's their problem. Nintendo is also hurting because of their arrogance and refusal to get with the times. Again that's not a sign console gaming is in trouble.
At least 4 out of 5 major current platforms (Vita, 3DS, Wii U, X1, PS4) will sell less than their predecessors. It's also possible that all 5 out of 5 end up doing this.
With dev costs rising this is a huge problem. We, as the consumers, are the ones who will suffer. What has happened so far then?
-Major studios and publishers closing doors, even some of your personal favourites
-Devs and publishers need to make more money, so more pay to win stuff and also freemium
-Online gaming behind a paywall
-Games released rushed and unfinished, might be patched... or not
-Lots of DLCs
-Microtransactions
-Game devs moving on to mobile platforms
-DRM
-Games in general will be more generic with no risks
Etc. Devs and pubs don't do this because they are shitheads or anti-consumer, they do this because they need to make money from this business. And before someone says "GTA V" as an example, think about it; it's one fucking game out thousands released during a console gen. Hundreds of games are complete commercial flops against one GTA-like success.
The industry is broken as hell, and an inevitable crash is coming.
ReBurn
Gold Member
My uneducated guess is that if there were stuff worth buying that wouldn't be the case. It seems like all that was really available this holiday season were sequels to sequels. As long as devs keep phoning it in by changing the number at the end of the title the trend will probably continue.
Thank you for this. There are so many people here just parroting Sony's PR that it drives me crazy. The entire industry is built on what are now broken models, and denying this doesn't help anyone.
MidgarBlowedUp
Member
I think AAA games should be easier to make on x86 hardware than exotics we have had before. I am not saying they aren't in trouble or don't need to adapt, but I do believe having console hardware that is x86 and getting faster and better tools to build assets will help. There is a lot going on now, like you have Unity and it's new 2D game making system that speeds up game creation. You also have software like Substance than streamlines and allows for faster and easier texture asset creation. What I'm getting at is that I think AAA is still very doable but, not without a new model of doing it.
Byakuya769
Member
Why would you discount the wii sales completely? I only mean that it expanded the console to a much broader group for that generation. That doesn't mean that every sale wasn't to a existing gaming consumer or one able to be captured.
Then we're fucked, because we *need* to expand the audience. We lost potential.
X86 makes it easier to code for the systems. Unfortunately, coding isn't actually the bulk of the cost of development.
The bulk of the cost is quality and quantity of assets. And I don't particularly see streamlining happening all that much, despite all the lipservice being paid to it.
Well, that's a separate issue, of course. It's already pretty damn hard to justify upgrading to PS4/Xbox One when only a few developers would actually have the resources to tap the increased power. That's not an issue that's going away.
flatearthpandas
Member
I think there are plenty of people who will argue that the XBO and PS4 will outsell their predecessors because of their successful launches.
There are arguments to be made that handheld gaming is dying because of mobile to explain the Vita and 3DS. The Wii U never had a chance since even the 100m+ selling Wii could not earn Nintendo "hardcore" support.
All those arguments aside, I think this at least bears (slightly modified) repeating: 3 of 5 modern platforms will sell less than their predecessors this gen... guaranteed.
That is terrible for the industry.
By 20%? If we take Wedbush Morgan's estimate for budgetary increases to be accurate (and I think that it's too conservative), then we need a 20% larger audience to sell to in order to turn similar profit. I don't see that happening.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
I think AAA gaming is in trouble. Unless E3 is just chalk full of amazing new IP or the already announced games are hiding amazing features some some odd reason, its looking kind of grim.
Saint Gregory
Member
OK, I misunderstood what you were saying then. I have seen a lot of posts over the years that made it sound like 90% of Wii sales went to grandmas and such. What gets lost in that is it was really important to expand the market beyond existing gamers. That expanded audience was pretty much treated like lesser consumers by the gaming industry which is why that former new audience is getting their fix elsewhere now.
Ever since the 360 took over the US market from the Wii the NPD has been reporting month over month and year over year contractions. Every time someone tries to bring up that point in the NPD thread it's dismissed as the just the Wii people leaving the market and I never get the impression that they realize just how bad that is.
I don't think any of the points mentioned in the OP really lead to the conclusion of the title.
But this is an assertion that seems a lot more sensible.
But this is an assertion that seems a lot more sensible.
Byakuya769
Member
I don't think that market was underserved. Ubi made bucketloads off of dance games and shovelware, that market was always going to get its fix elsewhere because wii gaming was a replacement for entertainment dollars they'd easily spend elsewhere, hence me characterizing the success as a fad.
How should the grandmas and such have been treated by the gaming industry?
Boy Wander
Member
I think the landscape has changed for sure. I don't have any figures to back this up so feel free to call BS if that's what it is, but my perception is that, outside of a select number of big AAA franchises, games on the whole take longer than ever to make and sell no more than they ever did. Hence the risk has increased. Yes you have stuff like Last of Us that sells well, but for every LoU, there's probably a dozen Remember Me's and the like.
I also think Nintendo's move to QoL (rightly or wrongly, time will tell) has as much, if not more, to do with the general gaming landscape than it does the performance of the Wii U.
Outside of devs backed by platform owners, studios and even entire large publishers have gone out of business at a higher rate than any time since the early to mid Eighties. That should tell you all you need to know about the sustainability of the current model.
I also think Nintendo's move to QoL (rightly or wrongly, time will tell) has as much, if not more, to do with the general gaming landscape than it does the performance of the Wii U.
Outside of devs backed by platform owners, studios and even entire large publishers have gone out of business at a higher rate than any time since the early to mid Eighties. That should tell you all you need to know about the sustainability of the current model.
All your points are anecdotal.
The market seems to only support 2 manufacturers as seen with Sega's down fall in 99'
And we don't know how IG was managed they could have been losing money and in debt before Bioshock Infinte and that would mean they were operating in the red and 2K was carrying their dead weight.
And the casual gamer has never existed but there are things every so often that have had cross over success but not enough to support the industry.
What is killing GAMES! not just consoles is lack of innovation and an inability to appeal to children coming into the medium and adults that are aging out of it.
The market seems to only support 2 manufacturers as seen with Sega's down fall in 99'
And we don't know how IG was managed they could have been losing money and in debt before Bioshock Infinte and that would mean they were operating in the red and 2K was carrying their dead weight.
And the casual gamer has never existed but there are things every so often that have had cross over success but not enough to support the industry.
What is killing GAMES! not just consoles is lack of innovation and an inability to appeal to children coming into the medium and adults that are aging out of it.
Saint Gregory
Member
LOL, this is exactly what I mean. The Wii audience was always treated as a secondary audience or the source of funds to make real games for the PS360. It was pretty rare that anyone but Nintendo tried to make games that were broad and easy to play without treating them like they had a mental disability. There's a reason why the music/rhythm genre sold so well on the Wii and it has a lot to do with the fact that they were real games that families and friends could all play together and generally weren't dumbed down from the HD versions of the same games.
A good example of what went wrong was RE4:Wii. It came out, broke a million and how did Capcom follow it up? RE railshooter while HD consoles got the real game. So there's no mystery why people who enjoyed real RE or other action games like it abandoned the Wii and moved on either to the PS60 or other activities. You can't poison the well like that and expect everyone to keep drinking.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
As valuable customers, because the money made from the Just Dances, Carnival Games, Fitness Evolveds and UDraws was being directly used to fiance the Assassins Creeds, the Dead Spaces and the Saints Rows.
grosvenor_92
Member
I don't think it's in trouble with how the PS4 and XBO are selling.
If anything companies will have to evolve but i don't think console gaming will go away anytime soon
If anything companies will have to evolve but i don't think console gaming will go away anytime soon
RobFox64tm
Member
The writing is on the wall, as far as I can see it. The increased costs of development and decreased mind share (of the broader public) will bring a change for sure. Will it kill console gaming entirely? I don't think so, but the dynamic is going shift dramatically by the next console cycle. Those holding out hope that things will stay as they are, forever, aren't looking at the situation with a critical eye and are only kidding themselves. This isn't something I'm happy to say either, just what I speculate based on the trends I'm seeing now.
Byakuya769
Member
Sounds like wii gamers with sour grapes. Um, bros... The people buying RE 4 weren't the primary ones buying Just Dance. If that's what the gaming industry has to cater to to "save" itself, I'll be chilling on PC.
Mr. Poolman
Member
I think a lot of people are in for a very rude awakening this console generation.
The console market is shrinking and the fault falls on the shoulders of the AAA model which very few developers can sustain.
I think consoles won't disappear, but some sacrifices must be made for the health of the industry, and that insane model of increasing costs needs to collapse and become way smaller.
The B and A class projects need to live again on consoles.
The console market is shrinking and the fault falls on the shoulders of the AAA model which very few developers can sustain.
I think consoles won't disappear, but some sacrifices must be made for the health of the industry, and that insane model of increasing costs needs to collapse and become way smaller.
The B and A class projects need to live again on consoles.
I think people who thought gaming as taboo are now coming into the market. Wii U was just a poorly designed console. X1 and PS4 are both really popular despite the bulk of their staple franchises coming later in the year. Companies are closing down, but it's not a big deal. Companies will leave the industry and others will enter.
We don't, really. Even if we do, it's not a healthy market to tap into at this point. Don't lose what you already have. Creating an all-in-one entertainment machine is enough in drawing enough attention to casuals like how the PS4 and X1 are doing.
We don't, really. Even if we do, it's not a healthy market to tap into at this point. Don't lose what you already have. Creating an all-in-one entertainment machine is enough in drawing enough attention to casuals like how the PS4 and X1 are doing.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Console industry is fine. I've said why plenty of times before, but yes, it's gonna be alright.
I understand there are legitimate concerns from unbiased people and I respect those concerns, but I also get the feeling a lot of that "doom and gloom" comes from butthurt Microsoft and Nintendo fanboys.
Especially Nintendo fanboys...
I understand there are legitimate concerns from unbiased people and I respect those concerns, but I also get the feeling a lot of that "doom and gloom" comes from butthurt Microsoft and Nintendo fanboys.
Especially Nintendo fanboys...
Saint Gregory
Member
Sounds reasonable... or... maybe there could have been room for everyone in the industry? The people that bought RE on Wii could have bought more RE and the people who like just dance could have bought more of that. The problem is the market got split since the Wii was never treated like a 100 million selling console by anyone... including Nintendo.
Basically all I'm saying is that it wasn't an inevitability that grandma was going to get bored with the Wii and start playing candy crush, the traditional gaming industry chased her into King's arms willingly.
many places
Member
PS4 selling 5 million even before japan release, gta v destroying sales records, the absolutely insane hype around anything naughty dog especially ps4 related, and the general attitude of both sony and microsoft at the moment would say console gaming is doing just fine.
many places
Member
I highly disagree with you. Where is there any hype for the Amazon machine anywhere on the internet? I haven't seen any on here, ign , kotaku, polygon.
ab.aeterno
Member
See, while I think the market and industry ate beginning a contraction, the problem I have is that people have been arguing the imminent demise of consoles solely because of the WiiU's compete shitshow of 2013. There were more than a few posters who basically said "you think this is just the WiiU doing bad but the new consoles will bomb too, you'll all see!!"
And, well, that certainly hasn't been the case. The WiiU bombing is not indicative of an industry collapse. Sometimes, products just do poorly.
And, well, that certainly hasn't been the case. The WiiU bombing is not indicative of an industry collapse. Sometimes, products just do poorly.
LegendofLex
Member
High initial sales =/= long-term health. In fact, we've seen lately that sales are becoming more front-loaded everywhere, and then prices drop like a rock.
Success becoming more concentrated among fewer titles is actually evidence of decline, not health. Or did you not notice that today not reaching GTA/COD success means your studio gets closed?
Hype among whom, exactly?
Absolutely the worst metric for measuring real success. Or do you not remember Sony in 2006?
got no interest in ever buying a console again
Both consoles are underpowered as fuck. The one seems to rely too much on an unnecessary peripheral but some of the exclusives look quite interesting. The PS4 has zero interesting looking exclusives coming to it, unless you count the medieval looking uncharted (and if you liked knack or killzone why wouldn't you?).
In the age of the kickstarter why would you want to buy a current gen console? the PC has better graphics at reasonable prices. plays PSP games, Wii Games, Gamecube games and PS2 games. Game prices are dirt cheap. Controls are flexible. It is backwards compatible and has a vastly superior selection of indie titles.
Both consoles are underpowered as fuck. The one seems to rely too much on an unnecessary peripheral but some of the exclusives look quite interesting. The PS4 has zero interesting looking exclusives coming to it, unless you count the medieval looking uncharted (and if you liked knack or killzone why wouldn't you?).
In the age of the kickstarter why would you want to buy a current gen console? the PC has better graphics at reasonable prices. plays PSP games, Wii Games, Gamecube games and PS2 games. Game prices are dirt cheap. Controls are flexible. It is backwards compatible and has a vastly superior selection of indie titles.