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Enterbrain confident in Wii maintaining its lead over PS3 in Japan

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ziran

Member
Reuters - Nintendo Wii Japan sales beat Sony PS3 in January
Nintendo Wii Japan sales beat Sony PS3 in January

Tue Feb 6, 2007 8:18 AM GMT

TOKYO (Reuters) - Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s (7974.OS: Quote, NEWS , Research) Wii game console outsold Sony Corp.'s (6758.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) PlayStation 3 (PS3) by nearly three to one in January, Japan's largest video game magazine publisher, Enterbrain, said on Tuesday.

Nintendo sold about 405,000 Wii units last month, compared with around 148,000 units of the PS3 sold, Enterbrain said.

Wii and PS3, made by two of the biggest players in the $30 billion global video game industry, went on sale late last year in a three-way showdown with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile , Research) Xbox 360.

A wider range of software titles for the Wii is luring more users, while the PS3's higher price tag is hindering sales growth, Enterbrain said.

The basic model of the PS3 sells for 49,980 yen ($415.9) in Japan, double the price for the Wii.

Nintendo has sold a total 1.4 million units of the Wii in Japan, far outpacing the 614,000 PS3 units sold, Enterbrain said.

"There could be a price cut for the PS3 by the end of the year, and more software titles will hit the market. I expect the PS3 to be doing better after a while," Enterbrain President Hirokazu Hamamura said.

"Of course, the Wii will keep running ahead all the while."


Shares in Nintendo were unchanged at 32,950 yen in afternoon trade, while Sony was up 2.1 percent at 5,820 yen.
Even though Wii has had a great launch, I'm still a little surprised to hear Enterbrain call the race over so early.
 

cvxfreak

Member
I think Enterbrain will end up being right for the most part. There are no signs of the two systems switching positions anytime soon, such as in 2007.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
Hamamura is a total goof and is obviously trying to change horses to Nintendo after a long period of being in Sony's pocket.

Hell just a few issues ago he said that the PS3 would do a turn around and take the lead position within a year or two. He later said that his comment "was about overseas", but he is really all over the place.
 

Terrell

Member
Hamamura has the same problem that American game journalists do: they want Nintendo as a marginalized player because Nintendo used to treat the press like garbage and because journalists want to continue pandering to their hardcore readership instead of catering to the new market Nintendo seeks to open up. After all, if news sites keep shouting "we don't care about the Wii, we're teh hardcore!!", it gives them more clout (and advertising dollar) with their current hardcore readerships who don't want it to look like they're "going soft".
 

Deku

Banned
Terrell said:
Hamamura has the same problem that American game journalists do: they want Nintendo as a marginalized player because Nintendo used to treat the press like garbage and because journalists want to continue pandering to their hardcore readership instead of catering to the new market Nintendo seeks to open up. After all, if news sites keep shouting "we don't care about the Wii, we're teh hardcore!!", it gives them more clout (and advertising dollar) with their current hardcore readerships who don't want it to look like they're "going soft".

Enterbrain isn't EGM or Gamepro. They actually do research and publish Famitsu. AFAIK Nintendo has a relationship with Famitsu, in terms of giving them content to publish. This isn't like the western/American situation.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
cvxfreak said:
I think Enterbrain will end up being right for the most part. There are no signs of the two systems switching positions anytime soon, such as in 2007.

World wide it's completely in the bag for Nintendo for 2007.
 
They'll probably end up being right but it's still a fairly early assumption to make, especially with all the excellent PS3 software coming up that the Japanese will eat up.
 
Deku said:
Enterbrain isn't EGM or Gamepro. They actually do research and publish Famitsu. AFAIK Nintendo has a relationship with Famitsu, in terms of giving them content to publish. This isn't like the western/American situation.


True.

Hamamura was expecting the same that all gaming journalists expected; a clean sweep by Sony. Why? Because they were successful before.

Like I keep saying, the industry is notoriously bad at predicting paradigm shifts.
 

llTll

Banned
catfish said:
World wide it's completely in the bag for Nintendo for 2007.
dont judge when there is still 10 months away from the end of 2007 :p

EDIT:fixed some shit here and there :p
 
llTll said:
dont judge when u r till 10 months away from the end of 2007 :p

While I agree that it's still a bit premature, I don't see anything on the horizon that could change this situation.

Sony would have to drop an absolute bomb to make up the lead that Nintendo is widening every week in Japan, and Nintendo would have to drop off in sales. I don't see either happening, quite frankly.
 

farnham

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
True.

Hamamura was expecting the same that all gaming journalists expected; a clean sweep by Sony. Why? Because they were successful before.

Like I keep saying, the industry is notoriously bad at predicting paradigm shifts.


i predicted DS... although i didnt predict brainage and gave electro plankton way too much credit for its own good
 
The main thing I can't see is anything coming out for the PS3 that would dent the Wii hardware sales. They're both targeting a diferent audience.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
llTll said:
dont judge when u r till 10 months away from the end of 2007 :p
I said world wide and you clearly don't live in europe.

Everyone here has to still go through the WTF 600 euros!~!!@#! early adopter stuff before it even gets to mass market. Unless wii flops horridly, like really horridly in USA i don't see how it can happen. I make no statement as to the rest of the gen, but I reckon nintendo has already secured themselves easily entrance to the next round with a tidy profit.
 

Haunted

Member
llTll said:
dont judge when u r till 10 months away from the end of 2007 :p
Holy shit, please don't replace are and you with letters - this is not gamefaqs.


I for one agree that the PS3 will have a hard time catching up to the Wii in Japan (i.e. it won't). PS3 already got a price-cut there, is now cheaper in Japan than anywhere else in the world and it's still outsold 3:1 week after week.
 
Haunted_One said:
Holy shit, please don't replace are and you with letters - this is not gamefaqs.


I for one agree that the PS3 will have a hard time catching up to the Wii in Japan (i.e. it won't). PS3 already got a price-cut there, is now cheaper in Japan than anywhere else in the world and it's still outsold 3:1 week after week.

I keep forgetting about that pre-emptive price cut.
 

Loonz

Member
Haunted_One said:
I for one agree that the PS3 will have a hard time catching up to the Wii in Japan (i.e. it won't). PS3 already got a price-cut there, is now cheaper in Japan than anywhere else in the world and it's still outsold 3:1 week after week.

More like 4:1 :) .
 

ziran

Member
llTll said:
i might have read it wrong. but he didnt end the race, all he said that the Wii will be #1 for while and he is totally right.

as long as there are no enough games for PS3 + the price of this thing. it wont go up in sales.
Phife Dawg said:
He didn't really say the race is ended. PS3 will struggle to really catch on. It will take some time naturally, since Wii will be selling steadily as well. I mean we're looking at roughly a 2-1 ratio LTD and roughly a 3-1 ratio in the current weeks.
maybe, but i think he was implying more than that because of the 'wii will keep running ahead all the while' bit combined with this statement, which is the real cause of my surprise:
A wider range of software titles for the Wii is luring more users, while the PS3's higher price tag is hindering sales growth, Enterbrain said.
imo not just ps3, but sony's and ms's strategy in general has been destined to not be the one which wins over the most consumers in japan since the success of nintendo's direction with the ds a couple of years ago. for enterbrain to be the first, to my knowledge, of any of the gaming media to finally admit nintendo's strategy for wii is one which has a wide range of titles attracting more people, and not try to say nintendo is only going to sell to the same people who bought gc, is significant.

too often the gaming media tries to pigeon hole games like wii sports and brain training as some sort of irrelevant obscure market that isn't sustainable, when in reality these are games with a really wide appeal. people from the hardcore, casual and non/new gamers enjoy these titles.

my surprise isn't someone saying wii is going to keep its lead over ps3 in japan, it's in enterbrain saying wii is going to keep its lead over ps3 in japan.

for the bigger picture though, japanese developers will not be ignoring wii's current success. it represents the biggest userbase of any of the new consoles with much lower dev costs, which is a huge factor imo. there's often talk about more power and better graphics making games more immersive, but this doesn't mean anything if the mass market doesn't care and it doesn't make videogames sell more. if there's a cheaper alternative which gives more profits developers will take it.

if wii's success continues i expect every major franchise which relies on most of its sales from the mass market, like ffxiii, to be coming out on wii.


Zefah said:
Hamamura is a total goof and is obviously trying to change horses to Nintendo after a long period of being in Sony's pocket.

Hell just a few issues ago he said that the PS3 would do a turn around and take the lead position within a year or two. He later said that his comment "was about overseas", but he is really all over the place.
i think this is part of it too. you'd have to delusional not to see the strength nintendo has in the japanese market at the moment.
 
I can't beleive that this was even reported. There has been nothing new. We already know all of this. He has made the most conservative prediction. Which by no means is wrong, its better than saying something stupid like a Sony PR. But we all know where it stands, and we also know there will be no lead change in the current year. At least not till at least mid last quarter. I thought here on GAF these sorts of nonsense breeze needn't be reported.

Next someone is going to say "hot out of the press, DSL is going to go on and be the fastest selling gaming machine of all time", and then maybe a small cover-my-ass, "it will definately out sell all other competition by 2:1 for this year." well duh, we were aware of this since a few Easters ago.
 
ziran said:
if wii's success continues i expect every major franchise which relies on most of its sales from the mass market, like ffxiii, to be coming out on wii.
Except that most of the Final Fantasy world wide sales come from a heavy "graphic whore" type of mass market and that is the most important factor that caused FF7 sales >>>>>>>>>> FF6 sales. Not every franchise is the same, you can't hope to put anything in the Wii and have better sales than on the rest of platforms.
 
Haunted_One said:
Holy shit, please don't replace are and you with letters - this is not gamefaqs.


I for one agree that the PS3 will have a hard time catching up to the Wii in Japan (i.e. it won't). PS3 already got a price-cut there, is now cheaper in Japan than anywhere else in the world and it's still outsold 3:1 week after week.

Quoted for truth (QFT).

The other day, someone was writing, here on neoGaf, "does" instead of "those". I did a search and found who it was.

It was Shoho, Official Zelda:TP thread. Page 149, post 7441. I have pointed it out to the user. You know I tried not to be patronising, but we got to hold some linguistic integrity, right?
 

ziran

Member
the thoroughbred said:
I can't beleive that this was even reported. There has been nothing new. We already know all of this. He has made the most conservative prediction. Which by no means is wrong, its better than saying something stupid like a Sony PR. But we all know where it stands, and we also know there will be no lead change in the current year. At least not till at least mid last quarter. I thought here on GAF these sorts of nonsense breeze needn't be reported.

Next someone is going to say "hot out of the press, DSL is going to go on and be the fastest selling gaming machine of all time", and then maybe a small cover-my-ass, "it will definately out sell all other competition by 2:1 for this year." well duh, we were aware of this since a few Easters ago.
the reason this is news is because after tgs last year enterbrain said ps3 will be the market leader in japan by the end of 07, yet today they're saying wii will maintain its lead:
Gamespot - Enterbrain: PS3 will lead Wii by Q4 2007


deathkiller said:
Except that most of the Final Fantasy world wide sales come from a heavy "graphic whore" type of mass market and that is the most important factor that caused FF7 sales >>>>>>>>>> FF6 sales. Not every franchise is the same, you can't hope to put anything in the Wii and have better sales than on the rest of platforms.
ff is one of the most mass market games there is. graphics are important for the series but the gap between wii and ps3 is far smaller than the one between the snes 2d sprites and the ps1 cg.

also, the cutscenes would look the same as the ps3 version, it's only the in game graphics which would change, and as i said, if wii continues to sell the way it has been doing i think square-enix will go where the money is. i don't even think a moneyhat from sony would help, because not going to the biggest install base could damage the long term future of series.

i'm not saying it won't come to ps3, i'm saying a wii version will happen if things continue as they have been doing in japan.
 
Zaptruder said:
Over the next year, I'll definetly agree with this.

Over the next five years, I'll say, that's highly improbable.

And what are you basing that on? Care to back it up? Because right now what you're implying is:

Nintendo builds a substantial lead in '07
???
Sony wins.
 
ziran said:
ff is one of the most mass market games there is. graphics are important for the series but the gap between wii and ps3 is far smaller than the one between the snes 2d sprites and the ps1 cg.

also, the cutscenes would look the same as the ps3 version, it's only the in game graphics which would change, and as i said, if wii continues to sell the way it has been doing i think square-enix will go where the money is. i don't even think a moneyhat from sony would help, because not going to the biggest install base could damage the long term future of series.

i'm not saying it won't come to ps3, i'm saying a wii version will happen if things continue as they have been doing in japan.
I don't think that FFXIII PS3 will be ported to the wii but there will be a FFXIII wii with, lets say, "more colorful" orientation akin FF12 Revenant Wings DS. If FFXIII wii sell better than the PS3s main one Square Enix will shift the series to the Wii, if the FFXIII wii sell good but still less than PS3s Squere Enix will continue with the main FF in PS3 + spin offs in Wii/DS policy.
 

Kafel

Banned
Talking about FF XIII, I definately see it selling a lot less than the previous episodes.


Not because of a lack of PS3s in houses ( it's not supposed to be a problem in the long term ) but because of the way the game has taken.


The market target aimed by FF X ( and obviously X-2 ) as well as FF XII was way more larger : I don't see girls playing with these sorts of robots revealed in the last Famitsu scans.
 

Pellham

Banned
Zaptruder said:
Over the next year, I'll definetly agree with this.

Over the next five years, I'll say, that's highly improbable.

Well the Wii likely won't have a 5 year lifespan due to its limited hardware. I won't be surprised if Wii's successor comes out in 3-4 years.

And because of the Wii's momentum, it's successor would likely outsell the PS3 as well.
 

jarrod

Banned
Zaptruder said:
Over the next year, I'll definetly agree with this.

Over the next five years, I'll say, that's highly improbable.
It really is PSP all over again I guess. They're even trotting out the same near sighted counter arguments. :lol
 
I dunno. History has told us that if you win short-term, you win long-term unless something awful happens, or the bottom just falls out.
 
llTll said:
i might have read it wrong. but he didnt end the race, all he said that the Wii will be #1 for while and he is totally right.

as long as there are no enough games for PS3 + the price of this thing. it wont go up in sales.

RTFA

"There could be a price cut for the PS3 by the end of the year, and more software titles will hit the market. I expect the PS3 to be doing better after a while," Enterbrain President Hirokazu Hamamura said.

"Of course, the Wii will keep running ahead all the while."
 
Zaptruder said:
Over the next year, I'll definetly agree with this.

Over the next five years, I'll say, that's highly improbable.

And that works out... how, exactly? There are basically two scenarios for that:

1) Sega-style complete corporate meltdown, or

2) Everyone magically gets tired of the Wii's "inferior" product and migrates to PS3 for "real" gaming.

Given that Nintendo is managed in maybe the most opposite possible way from Sega, with profitability ensured at all times on all product lines and a huge, untapped cash reserve, number 1 (which, I'll note, is the only historical cause of complete turnarounds more than a year into the generation) is pretty much out of the running.

As for number 2... All the demographic info we have so far pretty much points to Wii successfully drawing in a similar lapsed/non-gamer market to the DS, most of whom are not potential customers for the PS3 under any circumstances. Where is the surge of mid-cycle PS3 adopters going to come from, and what is going to maintain software release frequency in the face of 1-2 years of poor sales in order to justify that mid-cycle adoption?

Kafel said:
The market target aimed by FF X ( and obviously X-2 ) as well as FF XII was way more larger : I don't see girls playing with these sorts of robots revealed in the last Famitsu scans.

If you, uh, think that some robots will drive away more female players than the first female lead in a Final Fantasy in more than 10 years will draw in, you, uh, don't have a very good picture of FF's market appeal, I think.

Pellham said:
Well the Wii likely won't have a 5 year lifespan due to its limited hardware. I won't be surprised if Wii's successor comes out in 3-4 years.


Ummm... or not? If you're on top, extending your console's lifespan is more profitable to you. And given that the Wii's entire central philosophy is that graphical power doesn't really matter...

People said the same thing about DS, but there's no way in hell we'll hear about a followup to that in 2008. DS is just coming into the period of its greatest profitability, and Nintendo is going to milk that (like they did with the nine-year lifespan of the original Gameboy) until external market forces (read: competition) force them to move again.
 
charlequin said:
And that works out... how, exactly? There are basically two scenarios for that:

1) Sega-style complete corporate meltdown, or

2) Everyone magically gets tired of the Wii's "inferior" product and migrates to PS3 for "real" gaming.

Given that Nintendo is managed in maybe the most opposite possible way from Sega, with profitability ensured at all times on all product lines and a huge, untapped cash reserve, number 1 (which, I'll note, is the only historical cause of complete turnarounds more than a year into the generation) is pretty much out of the running.

As for number 2... All the demographic info we have so far pretty much points to Wii successfully drawing in a similar lapsed/non-gamer market to the DS, most of whom are not potential customers for the PS3 under any circumstances. Where is the surge of mid-cycle PS3 adopters going to come from, and what is going to maintain software release frequency in the face of 1-2 years of poor sales in order to justify that mid-cycle adoption?

After some thought, it's pretty obvious what Zaptruder is implying:

2008, a bomb will blow up Nintendo HQ.
 

Parl

Member
Updating the hardware will update the price of the console, update the price of the games and update the development costs.

Wii is already "outdated" graphically, by about 4 years (the tech IS slightly upgraded from GC, we need to remember), and the demand is HUGE. Consumers have the choice of getting a PS3 or Xbox 360 over a Wii, because they're both easy to obtain, and many do, of course. But many also do not.

I don't understand why the majority of people will all of a sudden become graphics whores.

Is Nintendo updating the DS to combat the PSP? They will do, once PSP/GC type hardware is cheap enough for a handheld in their eyes, but it currently is not. Did Sony update the PlayStation to combat the N64? Or Nintendo the Game Boy so it could compete with Game Gear in the long run?

Wii will be replaced by a new Nintendo product, but it'll be because of innovation and because better graphics has become cheaper over time... Cheap enough for them to think its worth it.
 

Zaptruder

Banned
Well, more of what I'm implying is that the Wii gimmick (it just doesn't work quite as well as it should. The pointer isn't relative to the screen (relative to the sensor bar; no/poor calibration fails to compensate for different screen dimensions) ... and motion implementation in 3rd party games so far leaves much to be desired) won't sustain the wii quite as long; unlike the DS, it lacks full (console) classic controls. And PS3 will have more room for price drops than the Wii; it's cheap now; but it won't get all that much cheaper; the cost for materials, form factor, packaging, distribution are all still essential costs. The PS3 in 4 years time will have much more substantial discounts and represent much better value; especially when you consider that HDTV adoption will be significantly up in 4 years (along with a large catalogue of great franchises and games).

The Wii will probably sell the most in the coming year; but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll dominate anything; the PS3's sales need not be trailing far behind.

And unlike the handheld DS, which specializes in small cheap fun games; a strength and an expectation for that category... the Wii doesn't really do the same for the full budget console oriented games; indeed, both the X360 and PS3 are able to outplay the Wii in terms of small fun cheap games with the use of their online networks; I'm not sure VC is going to offer anything but old games.
 

jarrod

Banned
Zaptruder said:
Well, more of what I'm implying is that the Wii gimmick won't sustain the wii quite as long; unlike the DS, it lacks full (console) classic controls.
800px-Wii_classic_controller.jpg



Zaptruder said:
And PS3 will have more room for price drops than the Wii; it's cheap now; but it won't get all that much cheaper; the cost for materials, form factor, packaging, distribution are all still essential costs. The PS3 in 4 years time will have much more substantial discounts and represent much better value; especially when you consider that HDTV adoption will be significantly up in 4 years.

The Wii will probably sell the most in the coming year; but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll dominate anything; the PS3's sales need not be trailing far behind.
It *really is* PSP all over again! :lol
 

Defuser

Member
Late 2007 and 2008 is where PS3 gonna go into full force,DMC4,FFXIII,MGS4,White Knight and maybe a price cut will sell a shitload of PS3.
 
This is the same nonsense we see about PS3 overtaking 360 in the US. People don't understand that even if PS3 outsels 360/Wii month to month at some point (which is possible and even likely), it would take eons to overtake a lead of millions of units established in the first year by the competition.

It's not like 360 or Wii are going to stop selling if/when PS3 starts flying high. They are going to keep selling every month.
 

Zaptruder

Banned
jarrod said:
http://www.techspot.com/gallery/data/502/medium/800px-Wii_classic_controller.jpg

I don't recall getting one of those out of the box.

If it's not in the box the console comes with, then it can't be relied on by developers; there games will still have to be developed to the specification of the wiimote.

It might be better if Nintendo mandated classic controller support, but they don't; games that should obviously support it like Marvel Alliance don't; result is you get a bunch of shit shovelware with very ill fitting controls.

If you think the home console business is akin to the handheld console business... I think you're sorely mistaken. Just like Sony was.

As far as the games comment goes; before anyone takes issue... it's more that in a year or two's time... you'll definetly be seeing the software there. The console portion of the system will definetly be justified by the games that developers are producing for it. If they continue to work on it as they've done in the months since release... then they'll definetly be able to leverage the rest of the latent advantages that the PS3 has.
 
Zaptruder said:
Well, more of what I'm implying is that the Wii gimmick (it just doesn't work quite as well as it should. The pointer isn't relative to the screen (relative to the sensor bar; no/poor calibration fails to compensate for different screen dimensions) ... and motion implementation in 3rd party games so far leaves much to be desired) won't sustain the wii quite as long; unlike the DS, it lacks full (console) classic controls.

If we're comparing to the DS, you should remember the games that rocketed the DS to winner status all were touchscreen centric games.

And PS3 will have more room for price drops than the Wii; it's cheap now; but it won't get all that much cheaper; the cost for materials, form factor, packaging, distribution are all still essential costs. The PS3 in 4 years time will have much more substantial discounts and represent much better value; especially when you consider that HDTV adoption will be significantly up in 4 years (along with a large catalogue of great franchises and games).

I'm reminded of a line from Lezard Valeth: "No matter how strong you grow, my magic is far greater still."

Please. Do you honestly believe that the Wii's price is as tight and barebones as you make it seem?. The PS3 can drop price when the tech gets cheaper, but Nintendo can likewise drop the price as they recoup losses from R&D, etc.

And which console do you think will reach mass-market pricing sooner?

The Wii will probably sell the most in the coming year; but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll dominate anything; the PS3's sales need not be trailing far behind.

Agreed. Too soon to tell.

And unlike the handheld DS, which specializes in small cheap fun games; a strength and an expectation for that category... the Wii doesn't really do the same for the full budget console oriented games; indeed, both the X360 and PS3 are able to outplay the Wii in terms of small fun cheap games with the use of their online networks; I'm not sure VC is going to offer anything but old games.

AC:WW, Nintendogs, and Brain Training. One common thread throughout these games is the idea of a daily activity. You have incentives to pick the game up every single day, and I think that's more important that simply 'small cheap fun games'.

(Not to mention that I'd hardly think games like FFXII:RW and DQIX are 'small cheap fun'. Cheap and fun, maybe, but small?)

Late 2007 and 2008 is where PS3 gonna go into full force,DMC4,FFXIII,MGS4,White Knight and maybe a price cut will sell a shitload of PS3.

Of these 4, only FFXIII can really be counted on as a system seller, with MGS 4 coming in a close 2nd. DMC4 and WKS will probably be great games, but not 'through the roof' sales like.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
nintendo hasn't even released any of its DS style market rapists for Wii yet, except Wii sports I guess but how can anybody think that the wii nintendogs animal crossing etc etc isn't going to drive sales?

And that's without even releasing their good games, like mario and smash bros. The Wii is absolutely not going away through 2007 and it's probably pretty save for a fair bit of 2008 as well.
 
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