For the people interested in drawing conclusions exclusively for consoles:
I think we all agree that they are the main remaining driver of physical sales in the US market. According to this data, physical sales are shrinking each year and rather significantly so. So there are only two possible reasons for this: (i) the console market is shrinking or (ii) the console market is in the process of catching up to others in embracing digital.
Hello Durante, I'm a big fan of your work.
However, hoping I can course correct you slightly. I don't think you're incorrect in what you're saying, just want to put a finer point on assumptions.
The data suggests to me that physical has been in decline because publishers have produced far fewer physical games than they used to.
The average physical sales per game produced really didn't change much at all between 2010-2015, but we went from over 700 physical games in 2010 to just over 200 in 2015.
This sharp decline in the number of games brought physical sales down.
In 2016, people started getting smarter. Smaller, previously digital only games started getting packaged releases. Rocket League (which passed 1m physical unit sold recently according to Psyonix) is a great example of this.
As release count begins to increase again, and as this holiday approaches with games like Destiny 2 etc etc I fully expect packaged sales to increase this year. Not because consumers all of a sudden found a renewed interest in packaged, but rather because more products will be available for sale.
The packaged market will always have a place, at least over the next decade or so. It's just that digital share of total spend is more pushed by publishers than it is pulled by consumers, if you know what I mean.