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[RBH]

There are few numbers in the media industry that turn heads and prompt speculation quite like the number of subscribers to ESPN, the sports giant that generates nearly half of all profits at Disney (DIS) , the world's largest entertainment company.

Nielsen (NLSN) on Friday said it was standing by a report from a week ago in which the media performance firm said pay-TV subscribers to ESPN fell by 621,000, or 3.1%, in October, its largest consecutive month decline in its history.

To be fair, Nielsen also reported subscriber declines of about 2% at networks owned by Time Warner (TWX) , Comcast's (CMCSA) NBCUniversal and Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI) .

But when the subject is the shrinking universe of cable TV viewers, ESPN turns heads. And for good reason: It's the most expensive network for pay-TV providers to carry and consumers to pay for.

So when word of a 3.1% drop in ESPN subscribers was made public, the network pushed back, arguing that Nielsen's number-crunching didn't include subscribers from online multichannel platforms such as Dish Network's (DISH) SlingTV and Sony's (SNE) PlayStation Vue.

Sensitive to the feelings of one of its most prominent clients, Nielsen withdrew its Oct. 28 report, saying it would reanalyze its data. On Friday, Nielsen said the data was solid.

"Nielsen has now completed an extensive review and has verified that November estimates were accurate as originally released and that all the processes that go into the creation of these estimates were done correctly," the company said in a statement.

ESPN took little time to issue a rejoinder.

"This most recent snapshot from Nielsen is a historic anomaly for the industry and inconsistent with much more moderated trends observed by other respected third-party analysts," ESPN said in its statement. "It also does not measure [online multichannel platforms] and other new distributors, and we hope to work with Nielsen to capture this growing market in future reports."

It's likely that Disney CEO Bob Iger will have further comment to make on the controversy when the world's largest entertainment company reports its third-quarter earnings on Nov. 10.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/138...s-by-subscriber-numbers-as-espn-grumbles.html

Nielsen is standing by its estimate showing an eye-popping subscriber loss at ESPN in the span of a month, but the sports network still isn’t buying it.

Tensions have run high between ESPN and Nielsen since the ratings specialist put out its November estimates of TV networks’ subscribers last Friday, showing that ESPN lost 621,000 subscribers in a month.

ESPN pilloried the numbers, calling them a “dramatic, unexplainable variation.” The sports TV giant took a dig at Nielsen, noting “their demonstrated failures over the years to accurately provide subscriber data.” ESPN said the numbers didn’t track with its internal estimates but also declined to release those.

Given the backlash, Nielsen took the report down Sunday to investigate whether there was a measurement issue.

In a statement Friday, Nielsen said after investigating the “larger than usual change,” it has verified that its original estimates were accurate. It said the declines that most cable networks experienced were driven by cord-cutting -- an overall decline of 0.55% in the universe of customers subscribing to pay-television through cable, satellite or phone companies. Now, about 98.4 million homes subscribe to pay-TV in the U.S.

ESPN isn’t backing down. On Friday, it called the data a “historic anomaly for the industry and inconsistent with much more moderated trends observed by other respected third party analysts.” The network noted that the number doesn’t measure new streaming TV operators like Dish Network Corp.’s Sling TV and Sony Corp.’s PlayStation Vue, which carry ESPN. “We hope to work with Nielsen to capture this growing market in future reports.”

Nielsen’s subscriber estimates showed declines among many cable networks, not just ESPN, according to Pivotal Research Group analyst Brian Wieser. In a report last week, Mr. Wieser said that median cable network penetration fell by about 1.4%.

Mr. Wieser said he believes Nielsen’s data, though they are estimates, are “useful for assessing long-term trends around households subscription levels to different networks.” In a note Friday, he said the ESPN-Nielsen dustup “serves to highlight that complaints from media owners or others who would benefit from adjustments to the data regarding Nielsen…should generally be taken with a proverbial grain of salt. In fact, they should often be ignored.”

Bruce Leichtman, another industry analyst, disagrees. He said that Nielsen’s numbers “make absolutely no sense” given that the third quarter is shaping up to be an “okay quarter” and there has never been a fourth quarter where the industry has experienced an overall subscriber decline. “It is such a glaring aberration.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/nielsen-and-espn-feud-over-cord-cutting-estimate-1478297498

But ESPN’s loss, according to Nielsen’s figures, wasn’t as big as what Viacom experienced, where Spike lost 1 million subscribers from October to November, and CMT lost 1.1 million. Ten other networks had losses greater than ESPN. Time Warner’s suite of networks lost 2.2% of its subscribers, according to Wieser’s analysis.

http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/nielsen-november-cable-subscriber-loss-espn-spike-1201910098/

 

[ClayKavalier]

ESPN earns HALF of Disney's profits? With the Marvel movies, Pixar, Star Wars, etc. and all of the associated merchandise that's just insane to me.

 

[Volimar]

Kind of crazy given how big football is. A sign of the times I guess.

 

[Squalor]

Kind of crazy given how big football is. A sign of the times I guess.

NFL's ratings are way down.

 

[Skellig Gra]

ESPN earns HALF of Disney's profits? With the Marvel movies, Pixar, Star Wars, etc. and all of the associated merchandise that's just insane to me.

Handful of movies a year vs constant stream of revenue

 

[platakul]

Cool maybe thwy wont control all sports opinions

 

[alleyezonme]

NFL's ratings are way down.

Could it be argued that their numbers were so big that its just going back to normal lvls

 

[Squalor]

ESPN earns HALF of Disney's profits? With the Marvel movies, Pixar, Star Wars, etc. and all of the associated merchandise that's just insane to me.

Your incredulity is insane to me.

Sports are bigger than all of the things you just mentioned.

Could it be argued that their numbers were so big that its just going back to normal lvls

Obviously any empire has its fall, but there's no such thing as a "normal level."

The NFL had been on a consistent rise. This precipitous fall is too sudden. Things would have leveled off for a period before declining had this "stood to reason."

 

[Saucycarpdog]

The entertainment industry is growing rapidly with things like Netflix, Amazon, Sling, ect. People are finding other things to watch besides sports.

 

[Squalor]

The entertainment industry is growing rapidly with things like Netflix, Amazon, Sling, ect. People are finding other things to watch besides sports.

Untrue. People just don't need to watch sports live from home at an added cost.

Sports in general are more popular than ever.

 

[Wuthering_Heights]

Good.

Sooner ESPN goes away, the better.

 

[Bowdz]

Bye bye Nate-the-lesser.

 

[Ambient80]

Good.

Sooner ESPN goes away, the better.

I also hate competition in the market

 

[Kill3r7]

ESPN earns HALF of Disney's profits? With the Marvel movies, Pixar, Star Wars, etc. and all of the associated merchandise that's just insane to me.

Sports have been the driving force behind cable and TV for over 20years. This was inevitable as more and more people opt for basic cable or the nonsports package.

 

[HStallion]

The reality is everyone is getting back into reading.

 

[The M.O.B]

They will find other ways into your pockets, don't worry.

 

[Ninja Beagle]

The only hour of Sportcenter I can catch these days is the 11 am Coast to Cast edition. WOW is Cari Champion terrible. I can't watch her. Even her Co-host rolls his eyes at how bad she is. It's awkward at times.

 

[Team Alucard]

Skip was their heart and soul after all.

 

[Hyun Sai]

 

[LQX]

Whoever is running ESPN is crazy to think the talking head talents do not matter. So many of them are gone. I don't even watch the Sunday NFL commentary anymore as it is without Tom Jackson. Retired my butt, he was given walking papers like many others.

 

[RBH]

Whoever is running ESPN is crazy to think the talking head talents do not matter. So many of them are gone. I don't even watch the Sunday NFL commentary anymore as it is without Tom Jackson. Retired my butt, he was given walking papers like many others.

Not gonna lie, I was a bit bummed out when it was revealed that Tom Jackson wouldn't be brought back

Grew up watching TJ and Berman on NFL Primetime

 

[ColdPizza]

Don't tell me people actually miss losers like Bayless and Cowherd. Do they?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Numbers are inflated and have been for years. Many people who didn't want ESPN have been forced to have it. Now with increased choice like Netflix ESPN isn't the mandatory albatross it used to be and people are dropping it like it's hot.

 

[entremet]

Not gonna lie, I was a bit bummed out when it was revealed that Tom Jackson wouldn't be brought back

Grew up watching TJ and Berman on NFL Primetime

The new lineup is awful.

Trent Dilfer. Ugh.

 

[jstripes]

Sports have been the driving force behind cable and TV for over 20years. This was inevitable as more and more people opt for basic cable or the nonsports package.

Yup. Countless people have been subsidizing ESPN, even if they don't watch a minute of it, simply by having it in their cable package. It's sort of omnipresent in that way. You want certain channels? Gotta subscribe to this tier. By the way, ESPN comes with that tier.

 

[Striker]

Obviously any empire has its fall, but there's no such thing as a "normal level."

The NFL had been on a consistent rise. This precipitous fall is too sudden. Things would have leveled off for a period before declining had this "stood to reason."

It was getting historic ratings last season. It was not going to hold up. Fantasy Football's popularity played in part (draftkings, etc.). And while quality of play was down, it is seemingly worse this season on top of bad officiating.

It hasn't dropped much at all for regional games. Frankly, Goodell needs to stop TNF. Players, coaches and often times the fans don't like it; but they will over saturate as much as possible.

 

[biggersmaller]

ESPN just lost mainstream appeal.

All home NFL games are OTA and ESPN is not the only source for witty talking head sport lists anymore. Meanwhile, people got sick of getting fucked by cable companies.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Handful of movies a year vs constant stream of revenue

That and very little cost up front and what there is is very predictable.

Movies are crap shoots. Costs could overrun easily or reviews could be bad

 

[PeakPointMatrix]

They'll find a way to blame millennials.

 

[commedieu]

God dammit capernick.

 

[Himynameischris]

I don't think these are fans that like sports that are suddenly cutting ESPN but people that don't watch sports and no longer need to get a cable subscription. The only time I watch ESPN is for football, I never tune in to anything else they show and yet I keep it around just for that.

 

[Squalor]

It was getting historic ratings last season. It was not going to hold up. Fantasy Football's popularity played in part (draftkings, etc.). And while quality of play was down, it is seemingly worse this season on top of bad officiating.

It hasn't dropped much at all for regional games. Frankly, Goodell needs to stop TNF. Players, coaches and often times the fans don't like it; but they will over saturate as much as possible.

As I said, it was on a rise.

Now the drop off is sudden and significant. At the same time, the ratings were so huge, even with this drop, it still outclasses just about everything else (aside from the World Series) in terms of ratings.

Regional games are down by low single-digit percentages, which is much less than the double-digit drop-off for Primetime games.

You can't just "stop" Thursday football. There are contracts.

 

[TheGreyHulk]

cable/tv bills are ridiculously overpriced now and there's so much more content you can get via the internet that many just say fuck it ditch tv services and stick to internet streaming services instead.

the only downside is that i see cable companies jacking up internet service prices or using fake ass data caps on land lines to keep the revenue stream up.

i'm pure internet only with netflix and right now i have slingtv for nba games on tnt/espn but i'm going to kill that until spring when the nba season really heats up towards the playoffs. nfl is all OTA anyways too.

 

[MegaManTrigger]

621,000 left with Skip Bayless. /s

 

[Jamie OD]

ESPN earns HALF of Disney's profits? With the Marvel movies, Pixar, Star Wars, etc. and all of the associated merchandise that's just insane to me.

If I understand correctly around $7 from every single cable bill in America goes to ESPN.

 

[BizzyBum]

Skip Bayless leaving for FS1 actually hurt them a lot. I think I heard somewhere ratings are down 33%. Max Kellerman is nowhere near as good as Skip.

 

[Electric Eye]

People to bussy trolling and making memes to watch espn and sport

 

[Sushi Nao]

They'll find a way to blame millennials.

This, haha

 

[Sandfox]

ESPN's quality gas dropped has dropped massively so I would say this is deserved.

Skip Bayless leaving for FS1 actually hurt them a lot. I think I heard somewhere ratings are down 33%. Max Kellerman is nowhere near as good as Skip.

ESPN has been losing big names over disagreements and FS1 stepping their game up. A lot of these guys on TV don't know what they are talking about in general though.

 

[Ambient80]

ESPN's quality gas dropped has dropped massively so I would say this is deserved.


ESPN has been losing big names over disagreements and FS1 stepping their game up. A lot of these guys on TV don't know what they are talking about in general though.

Yep. Skip Bayless, Colin Cowherd, and some others. I know most on GAF seem to hate those two, but they have a massive audience.

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

ESPN earns HALF of Disney's profits? With the Marvel movies, Pixar, Star Wars, etc. and all of the associated merchandise that's just insane to me.

Dog. ESPN and sports fuel the TV advertising industry, which is absolutely massive.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

ESPN sucks so this isn't surprising.

 

[entremet]

I don't think the taking heads matter that much.

It's just that cable companies are unbundling it.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Aren't most of ESPN's contracts super long term?

Are they even able to adjust costs in the wake of massive subscriber declines?

 

[MegaManTrigger]

Skip Bayless leaving for FS1 actually hurt them a lot. I think I heard somewhere ratings are down 33%. Max Kellerman is nowhere near as good as Skip.

Depends on what you mean by good. Skip Bayless was good for trolling SAS, which made First Take quite an enjoyable show, even if it was filled with garbage arguments. Max Kellerman on the other hand, is the sensible one and makes an already moronic SAS look even more stupid when they argue. First Take now is decent, but nothing like it was with Skip Bayless.

 

[Draxal]

I don't think the taking heads matter that much.

It's just that cable companies are unbundling it.

Well, in defense of ESPN, PS Vue numbers should count for ESPN and they are not counting them. It seems like there's a possibility that the cable networks are adjusting and Neilsen isn't.

 

[Sandfox]

Yep. Skip Bayless, Colin Cowherd, and some others. I know most on GAF seem to hate those two, but they have a massive audience.

I'm not a fan of Bill Simmons, but ESPN not renewing his contract and killing Grantland over him making a negative comment about Goodell during the Patriots fiasco was stupid.

With the way ESPN is set up right now they want you watching or listening to shows for specific people and the number of quality ones are dropping as they move on to better opportunities when their contracts end.

 

[Tom Nook]

Sad.

 

[newjeruse]

Yep. Skip Bayless, Colin Cowherd, and some others. I know most on GAF seem to hate those two, but they have a massive audience.

None of those debate shows get "massive" audiences. Only thing that gets that is live sports.

 

[Allforce]

I wonder if they somehow take this as a sign to tighten their security on people using logins from friends/family to watch ESPN via the website/app.

I mean, MLB can block me from all the Reds/Indians games in the area based on where I live just from my IP, couldn't ESPN stop people from using their brother's login halfway across the country to access MNF?