Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Typically, Monday night. However, it can take days in the case of close races.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Final DMR poll: Trump 28%, Cruz 23% & Clinton 45%, Sanders 42%
- Thread starter Downhome
- Start date
- Status
Typically, Monday night. However, it can take days in the case of close races.
No, he does have broader support, but that support isn't as deep once voters get over the age of 35 or so. When a race is as close as the polls appear to make it, he needs all the help he can get. Under-30s, and especially under-25s, are notorious for not voting, and Bernie needs as many of those voters as he can get. The new registration numbers (which are more likely to skew younger as there are more older, already-registered voters than younger ones) haven't moved as much as they need to in order to demonstrate support from that younger age group. If I were a Bernie supporter, this would have me more than a little concerned.
It's possible that a lot of these new voters may register at the caucus itself (same-day registration is allowed, if I remember), but those numbers tend to be smaller, and earlier registrations tend to be stronger signs that voters are enthusiastic about turning out. Again, if I were a Bernie supporter (or a member of his campaign), the general registration trends would have me very worried.
Of course, I could be completely wrong, but the numbers aren't adding up like they should be. I suppose we'll find out when exit poll numbers start coming out.
Oh no I'm not talking about giving her credit, I'm saying that it's proven to be a popular idea with a conservative women.
Clinton running a campaign with paid parental leave, equal pay for women, funding women's health care, defending women's reproductive rights, funding affordable childcare options, confronting domestic violence will make her very difficult to beat amongst female voters, especially when the odds on favourite to get the GOP nomination is Trump who has a huge gender gap in his support levels.
Link
The Autumn Wind
I'm really not too sure about that. Society has repeatedly proven to be selfish. It will probably play well with women that are expecting or planning a family, but then you'll have young professionals ("Why should I care?") and older women ("I didn't get paid maternity leave, why should they?") who will just keep toeing the GOP line.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
What a crock. She was well on her way to be someone big in politics before she got married.
CrocMother
Banned
We live in a patriarchal society, that has been that way for thousands of years. Women are intellectual equals to men, but have never been given the same opportunities. It seems hypocritical to acknowledge Hilary's merits, yet at the same time deny that she had to claw her way here on the backs of powerful men.
Oh there will definitely be some "I didn't get it neither should you".
"He married up" is a common insult amongst the elite.
Prodigal Son
Member
When tomorrow will we know, for sure, who won?
EatinOlives
Member
Depends. Usually at the end of the day but sometimes it takes days if the race is close
Cruz could conceivably win Iowa because of this, which I think would be a good thing. For this same reason, Hillary Clinton is (unfortunately) going to probably take Iowa.
Bel Marduk
Banned
So tomorrow if Trump wins here he's pretty much got the nomination locked up
We'll probably see Santorum Hickabee Paul Carson and Fiorina drop out after Iowa
Christie and Jeb! will stay on until New Hampshire
Rubio will likely stay on until Florida but he has no hope of winning here either
There's a very good chance Trump could win in every state except possibly Texas or California
Sanders needs a win in Iowa to get momentum on his side If he can't do well here he will have to do a curbstomp in New Hampshire in order to avoid a Clinton rout
I dont see how his campaign is successful without either or preferably both
If Omalley wants to have any sort of influence in this campaign at all he will drop out and endorse another candidate tonight or tomorrow morning
We'll probably see Santorum Hickabee Paul Carson and Fiorina drop out after Iowa
Christie and Jeb! will stay on until New Hampshire
Rubio will likely stay on until Florida but he has no hope of winning here either
There's a very good chance Trump could win in every state except possibly Texas or California
Sanders needs a win in Iowa to get momentum on his side If he can't do well here he will have to do a curbstomp in New Hampshire in order to avoid a Clinton rout
I dont see how his campaign is successful without either or preferably both
If Omalley wants to have any sort of influence in this campaign at all he will drop out and endorse another candidate tonight or tomorrow morning
BoboBrazil
Member
There's supposed to be a blizzard warning for Iowa tomorrow too lol
User 463088
Banned
Bernie has to win Iowa not just for a narrative, but to actually be competitive down the stretch. He needs to run up margins in white rich states to hope to be able to keep up with Hillary. Sam Wong was saying that Bernie would need to win by at least 10% to net enough delegates to keep his campaign viable. He's already at a disadvantage because a big chunk of his supporters live in one of three counties. He can increase turnout there as much as he wants but it won't net him too many more delegates. The most delegates a precinct can award is 4.
Link
The Autumn Wind
CNN mentioned Cruz's team was praying for snow. I guess Satan was listening.
RustyNails
Member
krackerjack
Member
So with the possibility of Trump vs. Hillary, is it possible Hillary wins a majority of most if not all states in the election?
Link
The Autumn Wind
No. The country is too politically divided nowadays. Unless Trump actually does go out and shoot someone. And even then...
So the Republicans win when less people go vote. Says so much.
User 463088
Banned
A slight majority, yes. All of them, definitely not. She would probably repeat Obama's 2008 map (minus Indiana), and MAYBE have a shot at Missouri, Georgia or (outside the realm of probability) Arizona. Possibly Montana, because Obama did get fairly close.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Been that way forever. Why do you think they're so eager to put Voter I.D. laws into place, along with cutting days, hours, and locations for early voting?
It's going to be hard for Trump to walk back all of his anti-immigrant, anti-muslim, anti-everybody-that-isn't-white rhetoric, so I expect that Hillary (or Bernie) would sweep everything outside of the deepest red states. Not a Reagan/Mondale level wipeout, but I could see either of them winning 40 states.
User 463088
Banned
Well, I mean, a lower GOP turnout only hurts the GOP. This is a partisan caucus, after all. Lower turnout hurts Trump and Sanders more, though, because both desperately need first time caucus goers and Independents. Both of these groups are less likely to turn out on the best of days, and things like weather could make it even less likely for them to show up.
This isn't Republican versus Democrat--a Republican will win the Republican caucus anyway, and the Republican establishment, including the Republican governor of Iowa, don't want Cruz to win the caucus anyway. They are banking on the fact that evangelical voters are more reliable caucus-goers opposed to the new caucus-goers that Trump is attracting.
Well, that's what their voting records are for. Those things that happen in between elections.
Yes, though if you qualify as a resident of a New England state, you may want to register there anyway as the California primary will probably be too late to matter.
does it really matter? THere is a huge balance of power at stake here, it matters less HOW these sychophants got where they are it matters more what they are doign NOW!
http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton...n-from-speeches-since-january-2014-1431730968
for those that prefer video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYWcKwXgD0c
User 463088
Banned
Here's a link to your Secretary of State that lists the information you'd need to vote absentee. Looks like primaries are included.
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/vote-mail/
Edit : We can't post gyfcat gifs ?
Ted Cruz trying to kiss his daughter http://gfycat.com/CornyDesertedAmmonite
Ted Cruz trying to kiss his daughter http://gfycat.com/CornyDesertedAmmonite
Link
The Autumn Wind
I'm assuming this was featured in the cringe videos thread.
There is an "Opinion Savvy" poll conducted Friday and Saturday that puts Iowa at a virtual tie between Trump, Cruz and Rubio:
Trump: 20
Cruz: 19
Rubio: 19
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Iowa-1.30.15.pdf
Trump: 20
Cruz: 19
Rubio: 19
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Iowa-1.30.15.pdf
Byakuya769
Member
Came to say this.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Do *you* think it's dumb luck that she's the first viable candidate in the entire history of First Ladies?
It's arguable many of them have had more executive branch experience than most of the male candidates that have ever run for President.
Angelus Errare
Banned
Pretty much. It's the republican mentality in a nutshell.
- Status