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[giga]

If you're wondering why this poll is so important: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html

 

[brianmcdoogle]

I wonder how much turnout will be compared to previous years.

I guess I'll add a joke, too:

Does anyone else think establishment newspapers shouldn't be conducting polls?

 

[injurai]

I wonder who Malley is stealing more votes from?

 

[Xe4]

Not surprised. Trumps been surging, and if Bernie is gonna win anywhere it's gonna be NH, but it's close so it could go to either. What is the error percentage?

I wonder who Malley is stealing more votes from?

Probably Clinton. For a while there he was seem as the establishment alternative to Hillary.

 

[XenodudeX]

lOl'Malley

 

[Kifimbo]

Not surprised. Trumps been surging, and if Bernie is gonna win anywhere it's gonna be NH, but it's close so it could go to either. What is the error percentage?

4%. So Clinton and Sanders are basically tied.

 

[nhlducks35]

Rubio's seen some shit

 

[ICKE]

Ted Cruz has decided to make his stand and die on that ethanol hill.

Why would you do that. I know he is an ideologue but...just...no.

"I want to win this election in order to save 'Murica from the butcher of Benghazi but first I will alienate voters in the most important primary"


On the other side :

 

[Burli]

Are there actually any non-crazies running for the Republicans (I admit I nothing about this Rubio fella)?

 

[x3sphere]

No surprise that Trump is still on top. I like Sanders but it's probably going to end being Trump vs Hillary.

 

[Aequitas]

lol O'Malley's percentage mirrors how much time he had to speak at the previous debate.

 

[Xe4]

4%. So Clinton and Sanders are basically tied.

Ok, so Clinton has a slight edge but it can swing either way. Gonna be interesting to see how it turns out for the Dems.

If Trump doesn't win Iowa for the Republicans, I'll be shocked.

 

[MattKeil]

Trump is going to win.

The nomination, probably. The election, not possible.

 

[legacyzero]

Damn, O'Malley LOL

 

[diablos991]

The nomination, probably. The election, not possible.

The GAF meltdown will be glorious if he wins.

 

[Buzzman]

The fuck is up with those skewed polls between Trump and Cruz? Trying to make it seem close?

 

[Ecotic]

The takeaway is it's still a race. Trump and Clinton both probably have a 60-65% chance of winning, but it's still a race.

 

[danwarb]

Come on Bernie. Save the world!

 

[KHarvey16]

The fuck is up with those skewed polls between Trump and Cruz? Trying to make it seem close?

Cruz does very well in Iowa.

 

[NIGHT-]

The nomination, probably. The election, not possible.

Trump vs Clinton... Whoever wins, we lose!

 

[shintoki]

Ok, so Clinton has a slight edge but it can swing either way. Gonna be interesting to see how it turns out for the Dems.

If Trump doesn't win Iowa for the Republicans, I'll be shocked.

There is a pretty big piece of the puzzle missing since many aren't registered. The students in Iowa. I found out the other day for Caucuses, the students are allowed to vote in them and many of them aren't registered. Even if you are from out of state. I would definitely say that plays heavily in Bernie's favor if they do have a strong turn out.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Margin of error though, Cruz could still take Iowa.

 

[Enter the Dragon Punch]

a) fuck ted cruz

b) o'malley hot on bernie's heels. wow. looks like rodham doesn't need to sweat it after all

 

[XenodudeX]

People keep saying this, but I believe them less and less every time. Anything can happen.

Anything can happen. Like Trump winning without the latino vote, black vote, and women vote?

 

[maxcriden]

People keep saying this, but I believe them less and less every time. Anything can happen.

I don't think the electoral math shows a possible path to victory for Trump, from what I remember. Someone else can probably shed more light on this, though.

 

[KHarvey16]

People keep saying this, but I believe them less and less every time. Anything can happen.

Anything can certainly happen, but unless Trump murders all of the minorities his victory is quite improbable.

 

[120v]

I wonder who Malley is stealing more votes from?

nobody

 

[N.Domixis]

4%. So Clinton and Sanders are basically tied.

or clinton is +4% higher than what is shown or bernie is 4% lower than what is shown.

 

[BobLoblaw]

Trump vs Clinton... Whoever wins, we lose!

I'll chose losing less with Clinton than losing more with Trump.

 

[Hexa]

Go Trump Go!

 

[Xe4]

This and NH are probably the most important caucuses for Bernie, if he wins both he has a fighting chance, if he only wins one it's ok, he's still in the game. If he looses both, RIP, Bernie campaign. If he can't win some of the whitest states in the US he stands no chance in the rest of it.

My prediction : Hillary inches out Sanders in Iowa, but Sanders inches out Hillary in NH. Mostly cause NH is closer to Vermont.

 

[User 85168]

Another reason why this poll is considered to be important:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/

 

[Hazmat]

I honestly thought Sanders would have it tied or be up 1-2%. I imagine the Clinton camp is very happy with this news. The delegate count will be close either way, but a win would be big for either candidate.

 

[Escape Goat]

Soon...

 

[leatherhat]

The enemies of the Imperium fear Trump

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

The takeaway is it's still a race. Trump and Clinton both probably have a 60-65% chance of winning, but it's still a race.

Pretty much, although Trump being just outside the MoE is not insignificant. And Sanders needs a significant popular vote lead to overcome Clinton's geographical advantages for delegates.

 

[HylianTom]

A key note:
because of how delegates in Iowa are distributed, Bernie likely has to win the raw popular vote by at least a few percent in order to win the headline delegate count at the end of the night. Our pollster, Selzer, estimates that about 27% of Bernie's support comes from three counties with college towns (Black Hawk, Johnson, and Story); he can rack-up large margins in these locations, but these large margins will not translate into additional delegates. The dynamic is similar to how a Democrat in the general election can win California by millions, and it won't do him/her any good in the electoral college.

(The raw popular vote won't be announced until later on in the year.)

All that said: I'm going to laaaaugh if Selzer is wrong this year, after all of this silly fanfare.

 

[Team Alucard]

Definitely caucusing on Monday.

I still don't know if I'm on team Hillary or team Bernie though.

 

[RPGCrazied]

I'll chose losing less with Clinton than losing more with Trump.

I'd vote for anyone running than Trump, maybe even Cruz, but I'd have to sleep on it. Other than that, I'd vote for fucking Ben Carson in the white house before Trump.

 

[Makai]

Cruz was never good at Halo

 

[Kifimbo]

or clinton is +4% higher than what is shown or bernie is 4% lower than what is shown.

That's the definition of a confidence interval, yes. So Clinton ceiling is higher.

 

[Hasney]

The GAF meltdown will be glorious if he wins.

Yeah, people typing on GAF will be hilarious while the lives of several million get fucked. But hey, LOL meltdown, right?

 

[Prodigal Son]

Buying some ointment for these severe Berns.

 

[Mike M]

People keep saying this, but I believe them less and less every time. Anything can happen.

Well it's certainly possible, but proclaiming it unlikely is an assertion that's supported by data. Clinton leads by wide margins in practically every demographic outside of white males, and it's no longer possible to win the election by carrying the white vote alone. The GOP primary electorate does not extrapolate to the general election.

 

[kirblar]

I don't think the electoral math shows a possible path to victory for Trump, from what I remember. Someone else can probably shed more light on this, though.

Well it's certainly possible, but proclaiming it unlikely is an assertion that's supported by data. Clinton leads by wide margins in practically every demographic outside of white males, and it's no longer possible to win the election by carrying the white vote alone. The GOP primary electorate does not extrapolate to the general election.

This is exactly it. Bernie is incredibly unlikely to win the primary reason for the exact same reason Trump is incredibly unlikely to win the general.

 

[KHarvey16]

All it takes is some sort of "attack" or some sort of "omg terrorism" thing to happen, and Trump's numbers could go up. Trump plays into fear, and when people are afraid they vote.

I think saying "not possible" as in 0% chance is a little too early to say at this point.

It would take more than that. The people afraid of a trump victory would become more afraid in the case of an emergency that might make it easier for him to actually carry out his ridiculous campaign ideas.

 

[Kastrioti]

What are the odds Mayor Bloomberg enters the race as a 3rd party choice?

Would be fascinating to see how both Democrats and Republicans respond.

 

[RPGCrazied]

What are the odds Mayor Bloomberg enters the race as a3rd party choice?

If Bernie wins the nomination, I heard he might. That would fuck up the democrats though, maybe actually handing Trump the white house. He would split the vote.

 

[Suikoguy]

What are the odds Mayor Bloomberg enters the race as a 3rd party choice?

Slim with Hillary as the nominee.

But the chances of a 3rd party spoiler are far higher this election then normal.