So if he dropped out, his supporters just wouldn't vote?
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Final DMR poll: Trump 28%, Cruz 23% & Clinton 45%, Sanders 42%
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So if he dropped out, his supporters just wouldn't vote?
Matt_
World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
The same chances as Bernie has at winning the primary I guess
Team Alucard
Banned
Trump does have a path to victory. He needs to match Romney's performance and pick up about an extra 4% of the white vote assuming minority turn-out remains at the same level as 2012.
However, that's extremely unlikely for several reasons:
1) Romney had the highest share of the white vote of any candidate in 25 years, and he still lost handily.
2) Trump's misogynistic comments as well as Hillary being on the ballot on the other end is going to hurt him with white women, a demographic that Romney won by 14 points.
3) Trump has insane unfavorables with Latinos. Its likely that the Democrats will get 80%+ of the Hispanic vote if Trump is the GOP nominee. (Obama got around 70% in 2012)
4) The economy is doing much better now than it was in 2012 and Obama is more popular. Overall conditions are much more favorable for the Dems this time around.
Trump's only real chance of victory is if there is a major terrorist attack or an economic meltdown. Something that would make white people go nuts in response.
OP, Bloomberg Politics on Twitter has a lot more and higher quality images in case you want to add them: https://twitter.com/bpolitics/
GregLombardi
Member
No, you lose horrifically with one candidate and win marginally with another. Good try though.
It just boggles my mind that you would go against ethanol subsidies in the one primary you ABSOLUTELY have to win in order to keep the race competitive.
Ted Cruz is supposed to have one of the most ruthless and intelligent campaign managers there is. I don't know what to make of it, I think the capabilities of Jeff Roe might be vastly overestimated.
Ted Cruz is supposed to have one of the most ruthless and intelligent campaign managers there is. I don't know what to make of it, I think the capabilities of Jeff Roe might be vastly overestimated.
Eh, I don't think so. If Bloomberg wants to enter the race as an Independent he will. He has the cash, popularity and name to do what he wants, Ross Perot style.
He obviously won't go in as a Democrat so I don't see how Senator Sanders electoral outcomes has anything to do with what Mayor Bloomberg wants to do.
RPGCrazied
Member
People comparing Trump to Clinton, I don't even...
This poll is a few months old, but it suggests that a terror attack wouldn't ding her chances against him. Voters trusted her more by 8%. Pretty unusual for a Democrat (I remember being a bit surprised). I'd love for pollsters to do new research on this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hetoric-clinton-is-most-trusted-on-terrorism/
Napoleonthechimp
Member
As a foreigner I feel compelled to say: Your country is fucked.
I can't believe that Trump imbecile has a chance of winning.
I can't believe that Trump imbecile has a chance of winning.
and this: what a myth I tell you.
Mixing "just ok" with "not okay" is one of the most baffling things I've ever seen in an infographic.
True, Hillary is probably going to win the delegate vote either way. However, winning by percentage is important to Bernie because it can be painted as an underdog narrative, while Sanders loosing the total percentage but still getting roughly the same delegates would still paint him as the looser of Iowa.
He said he'll only run if "extremist" candidates are chosen, in his opinion Sanders and Trump. And while he may still say fuck it and rub anyways, the cancer of him entering are higher with Bernie as the delegate than with Clinton.
I don't agree with him saying Sanders is extreme, but it's what he believes.
Mathematically yes, but practically he really doesn't.
The Artisan
Member
if i'm interpreting this correctly does this mean sanders is catching up?
The people who picked O'Malley all checked the wrong box by accident.
So you're a Trump supporter?
Team Alucard
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Cesare Borgia
Banned
This is going to be decided by turnout and who has the better organization. If Sanders pulls off the "revolution" he's promised, he'll win because new caucus goers will show up. I tend to doubt that given the voter registration numbers. Right now I think turnout won't be particularly great and Hillary will win by 4-6%.
I really don't want the democrat vote divided up with the clowns the GOP is putting forth. Not unless Trump or Cruz goes independent too, then it may be worth it.
RPGCrazied
Member
Probably doesn't have the money for that. I hear its very expensive to do that. Hence why Trump threatened to do it, and Bloomberg suggesting he might.
Basically these polls only show trends and arnt accurate enough to predict turnout. But yes Sanders has been "catching up" since like June.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Hes had a very gradual increase over the past 8 months, the only question is, if the momentum will increase that little bit more over the next 48 hours.
Caucuses are different from regular voting. There is a lot of talking, you don't just go into a booth and cast your vote. So the numbers for enthusiasm are pretty important, because the candidate's base that has the best argument when everyone meets, might get an extra boost on the night of the caucus.
O'Malley's 3 % is interesting. They said that they really isn't anything that can pull from his supporters that would say if they would go to clinton or sanders if they had a second choice that could effect the outcome. The small group of 15 people in the poll just wasn't enough for them to come to conclusions over it.
And why's that?
Who are you referring to?
DMR...
Aaronology
Member
You're either delusional and you think he'd actually be able to win the General as an (I), or you're selfish as fuck and basically want to piss on the Democrats/Dem voters for not selecting your (current) Savior To Be.
As a Bernie supporter.
NOPE.
Hillary is worlds better than absolutely everybody else running and all things considered not that much different then Bernie at her core.
I'm a Trump supporter because I want Bernie to win it all? Ok. I'm latino btw, I wouldn't be caught dead voting for Trump.
GregLombardi
Member
You are a fucking terrible person for equating the two in any semblance of reality. Keep trying though.
excelsiorlef
Member
Incorrect.
No but I really don't think you are a Bernie supporter if you want a Republican to win which is exactly what would happen. How do you justify that?
I'm thinking that probably wont matter that much. Bernie was likely already going to win the college areas, and by big percentage amounts.
If he now wins by an even higher percentage amount that likely wont change how many delegates he gets from those college areas by very much.
Delegates are what get you the nomination, not total votes, as Hillary learned from Obama in 2008.
Also the caucus is during the school term this year, compared to 8 years ago when it was during Christmas/Winter break for Obama. So all the college kids will likely be concentrated in the college areas which could also limit the delegates Bernie gets compared to if they were spread out all through out the state. And the kids from out of state don't really have anywhere else to go to in the state anyways besides their own college area.
You don't have to be registered prior to caucus day. If you show up to caucus, they can register you right there, which I imagine many first-timers will opt for.
Clinton moves up to 74% chance of winning Iowa now on 538's polls only forecast.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
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