Maybe they're not mutually exclusive. In the end the atoms have to follow the laws of physics - the very same matter that makes up our consciousness and dna are applicable to those rules too. On the micro, every day scale it definitely feels like free will exists. I don't believe a baby tragically shot to death or born with genetic deficiencies was always meant to happen. Though I bet to a more intelligent species than us, or heck the human scientists gathering large historic data - the behavior and fate of humans on this planet and empires/nations is predictable to a large extent.