J-Rzez said:
How are they going to fail? What is your definition of fail? Because if you're like many of the Ninty lovers, it's about sales. If you consider Ferrari a failure because they don't sell as many F430's as econo-box Chevy Cobalts, then more power to you. As long as Sony and MS profit in the end, they'll more than likely continue their path. Sony at the least will, as they're always pushing tech in all of their products. MS is usually about pushing forward, but they're known to emulate others at times too, so they're a little shaky. I'm not saying Sony won't ship a motion controller with the PS4, it's very possible as they have in the past released alternative input devices, just they'll push the tech again as well. Perhaps without the Blu-Ray debacle, they'll increase the horsepower while keeping costs a little more user friendly. I highly doubt they'll just make an optimized performing PS3, shrink the case, and throw in a fancy controller and call it next gen while overcharging like Ninty did.
And before people start saying what about people boasting PS2 numbers then, they could. Why? Simple, that console had perhaps the most killer gaming library ever in a console. Within 2 years of it's launch it was getting decent number of killer titles. The Wii on the other hand has had a gaming library nearly equivilant to the Atari Jaguar so far: One or two "AAA" titles, rest are sub par-generic quality titles with hopes and promises of better games on the horizon that don't seem like they're coming anytime soon, if at all. Ninty's first parties are out in left field doing who knows what, and third parties haven't been flooding the market with their AAA teams works either. The PS2 was at least "competitive" in the tech department as well, and not at a crippling situation like the Wii is now.
First, I hate calling Nintendo by such moniker. Big N, Ninty... Nintendo's not anyone's buddy. Not against you, I just had to voice that. Ninty sounds silly anyway.
My answer was mainly a reaction to your "as long as the Wii has no effect on the industry norm", because it certainly will. As far as this particular assumption goes, I can assure you you're in for a big disappointment. For now, it is only the beginning, that much is clear, but unless Nintendo makes a huge mistake and Sony or Microsoft can capitalize on it in an incredibly ingenious fashion, Nintendo will continue turning the industry on its head and make current values more and more irrelevant. So yeah, they will change the norms.
Now, to be more specific. The problem with your argument is that you're ignoring Microsoft and Sony's losses. Sure, Ferrari seems to do well enough (although I'm no specialist on the matter, what about you?), but Microsoft and Sony don't. They still take huge losses. Sony is the company that is suffering the most right now despite the sales of the PS2 and PSP. Microsoft had huge losses to begin with and, although they had made money a few months ago, they're once again in the red lately, as recent numbers have shown (ask Opiate if you want more details about that).
Sure, their sales won't just go to 0 overnight. That said... I don't get it: do you expect them to miraculously grow with their future next-gen consoles if they do the whole "better graphics" approach once again, even with motion controller? Conversely, do you expect Nintendo to have no support at all as their userbase grows and grows, breaking sales records? Saying that the Wii has a library equivalent to that of the Atari Jaguar is laughable. I mean, I know what hyperbole is, but even that can't be excused by stylistic devices. It's just too much. Either you're completely blind, or you're spreading FUD.
Before I post once more, I'd like you to tell me if you're interested in hearing my elaborating on the contents of my previous post, not just ask me what my definition of failure is. Because I can't tell you why I used that word unless I explain this from a business angle. And I said
business angle, not simply sales. Sales are just data. They mean nothing unless you study their underlying causes, i.e. the strategies and business models at stake.
