I think before assessing whether it fails or not, it's critical to define what failure looks like, and conversely, what success looks like for this title.
The success condition imo here absolutely has to be that Starfield would push more Xbox series units, there is no sense in making it a bonafide exclusive* because you want to sell it on PC, because it would have sold on there regardless of whether MS got involved or not. If Xbox numbers don't materially improve during release window, then this title will have failed its true purpose in Microsoft's plans: To sell consoles and shift people from Playstation to their platform.
I disagree with the prevailing notion in this thread, Starfield is absolutely make or break for Xbox (or at least their current management) for multiple reasons:
- It's a game that has been teased a long, long time ago now, it's gonna have expectations.
- It's the 1st true proof of concept for Xbox's current acquisition-1st mindset, if this tanks critically or commercially then the perception of what Microsoft paid for Bethesda will certainly suffer.
- Starfield is not a multiplat, online ppl will absolutely be applying the microscope to it because dumb console wars.
- The constant delays with polish constantly being pushed as a reason by Phil Spencer will make it under more scrutiny for bugs etc, even more than any other Bethesda title.
- Todd Howard is involved.
* Let's sidestep the arguments about whether it was "stolen" or not, that doesn't matter anymore, and it being an exclusive to Xbox rn doesn't really preclude MS deciding to release it on PS consoles a few years later, it's ultimately their IP after all.