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[Tripon]

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities

- Nintendo's first mobile "game" will flop. Miitomo will get 100 million downloads, so it will be a "success" in terms of users, but it will drop out of the top 100 grossing games on iOS and Android by year-end 2016. I think people will try it, but don't think they'll find social chat compelling enough to spend money. In my opinion, Miitomo offers little that isn't already widely available on Facebook; younger consumers not on Facebook will probably find it appealing, but they typically have little or no access to credit, so Nintendo will have trouble monetizing Miitomo.

- Nintendo's second mobile game will be a resounding success. I actually think Miitomo is intended to be a platform that allows people to create a personalized image/character and use it in other Nintendo games. I am hopeful that the second effort is something more familiar, such as a Super Mario platformer. If so, I think the game will attract 200 million downloads and will be a top 20 (or possibly top 10) grossing game on both iOS and Android.

Patrick Walker, EEDAR

eSports will continue to grow in revenue, advertisers, viewership, and infrastructure, but the industry buzz will actually decline as a deeper understanding of eSports emerges.

Looking back, I would say that the rapid growth and industry excitement around eSports was probably the biggest gaming story of 2015 (Of note: not one of the 10 analysts or GI.biz staff members mentioned it in a prediction last year). My prediction is that while eSports will continue to grow at a steady pace, and more large companies will continue to enter the supply chain as content producers, advertisers, leagues, and viewing platforms, the overall buzz will subside as knowledge grows. eSports is definitely not a fad and represents the broader theme of growing diversity in gaming engagement, but eSports is still misunderstood by many in the industry. eSports is not a fit for the majority of gaming experiences and the whole ecosystem still generates less revenue in a year than many individual games. As the industry understands eSports more fully, the hype will fade a bit, but in its place will remain a gaming segment with a long term, bright future.

India will become the new Asia in mobile gaming, but this will also be the year when the mobile market truly slows.

As we end 2015, the Asian mobile markets are starting to show the same signs of device saturation and revenue growth decline that the Western markets experienced in 2014. Mobile publishers are already showing interest in the emerging markets, but this push will happen in earnest in 2016. India will become the hot market, but as with the APAC regions, localization will be critical to success. Unfortunately, the untapped markets do not have the same revenue potential as the APAC regions and this will be the year that worldwide mobile gaming revenue growth slows significantly.

Billy Pidgeon, independent analyst

- The hype surrounding augmented reality and virtual reality will continue to build, resulting in a backlash of justifiable criticism due to delayed delivery and high expectations.

I believe VR and AR will eventually deliver exciting gameplay, but although hardware will be available in 2016, the technology will not drive more than a few must have games next year. I think we will begin to see demonstrations of satisfying experiential results from the strong development investments in VR and AR games and non-game apps toward the end of 2016. VR and AR will transform games and interactive applications, but most gamers aren't going to want it or need it until sometime between 2017 and 2020.

- Nintendo's new NX system will represent a wholesale rethinking of online games, community and digital commerce for the company.

While Nintendo is relatively late to fully embrace remote connected gaming and commerce, I believe Nintendo's new network and hardware will deliver an evolved multiplayer gameplay experience. NX will rightly be positioned as a system and network separate from Wii U and 3DS. 3DS will remain a thriving system for a number of years. Although Nintendo will sell more Wii U hardware as more highly anticipated franchises become available for the system next year, the system has lagged too far behind the competition to remain viable for most third-party publishers and should be managed accordingly. NX may be released this year, but Nintendo would be wise to delay launch until a number of quality launch titles are ready to ship.

David Cole, DFC Intelligence

- Microsoft Struggles

2016 is likely to be a very difficult year for Microsoft. They are moving on many fronts but struggling in almost all areas when it comes to consumer entertainment and services. There is likely to be a growing realization that outside North America the Xbox One has been a flop. Core gamers are abandoning the Xbox brand and that impact will really start to hit home. Microsoft is slowly paying attention once again to the PC game audience but once again they are a little late to the party. Right now they are facing potential backlash among gamers over Windows 10 and its automatic updates and spyware. On top of that Microsoft simply does not have a mobile play. Microsoft has been coasting for several years and in 2016 it will really start to catch-up with them.

- Toys-to-Life Shakeout

The Toys-to-Life movement has become overcrowded. In 2016 we see the category being dominated by Lego Dimensions and to a lesser extent Nintendo Amiibo's. Amiibo's hit on a low cost add-on price for core Nintendo consumers that fit into the growth of extra content. Meanwhile Lego takes the category to a new dimension because Lego has been far and away the leader in combining brands, playable toys and interactive games. Disney Infinity had a nice run but it is hard to see them competing with Lego. This will likely result in another restructuring of Disney Interactive to avoid going back into the red after two years of finally seeing profitability.

Jesse Divnich, VP of Product Strategy & Insights, Titling Point (and former EEDAR analyst)

I don't consider the eSports business model suitable for most games and most publishers/developers. To effectively compete, you need an entire eSports team dedicated to growing the community. If you are truly interested in eSports, you need to build your game from scratch with eSports in mind; it cannot be an after-thought. We saw this years ago when developers/publishers were tacking on online multiplayer to their games, just because of the success of Call of Duty and Battlefield. Ultimately, developers/publishers discovered that unless the game is built around multiplayer, most consumers showed little interest.

What I do see is shareable interactive entertainment becoming a larger channel for discovery and social interaction, which ultimately drives revenue. Whether it's Twitch, YouTube, MobCrush, or a host of others, there is a growing trend for streaming and sharing gameplay. More consumers are discovering new games from these shareable experiences than ever before. It's an incredible tool to reduce acquisition costs, increase engagement, and ultimately increase monetization. eSports is an interesting opportunity, but I believe developers/publishers should be thinking more about shareable, and sometimes interactive, viewing experiences.

Much more in the link. I tried to only quote one or two things from each person, and they shared much more with Games Industry.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2015-12-23-what-to-expect-in-2016

 

[Rymuth]

Was going to make a thread about this but I got beat, it seems. Strange no one's commented in this thread.

 

[Oregano]

I think Pachter will be disappointed if he thinks Nintendo's going to just slap a Mario game on iOS/Android. It's still like the opposite of what they said.

Unless he means an autorunner in which case it's a little mpre plausible.

 

[Percy]

Actually agree with a lot of these. I can see the toys-to-life bubble bursting as well, the prices on those Lego Dimensions sets are ridiculous if nothing else.

 

[banefirelord]

How have Lego Dimensions' sales been compared to Infinity over the same amount of time? They might have experience in games and a large toy presence, but Disney has the Marvel and Star Wars licenses locked down tight and those aren't exactly minor properties.

 

[bloodyroarxx]

Yeah the toys to life bubble will pop big-time this year I think

Lego is absurdly expensive, and Disney won't really have much for a marquee make to attach to it again imo

I have no idea how skylanders did this year

 

[Joni]

All logical and trustworthy predictions.

How have Lego Dimensions' sales been compared to Infinity over the same amount of time? They might have experience in games and a large toy presence, but Disney has the Marvel and Star Wars licenses locked down tight and those aren't exactly minor properties.

LEGO on the other hand has the advantage that they are actual LEGO figures. But sales-wise, no concrete numbers outside of LEGO Dimensions having a stellar start.

 

[Maybesew]

Flip a coin to see if any of these opinions will be right or wrong

 

[massoluk]

I still think people severely underestimate the appeal of Miitomo. I really just mapped the success of Tomodachi Collection onto the user base of mobile. Nintendo isn't trying to be Facebook. Hell, Facebook is one of its new log in options.
/shrug

 

[Oregano]

Interesting that two of the analysts predict Nintendo won't launch NX next year. I think it will personally but we'll see how it pans out.

 

[Ridley327]

Yeah the toys to life bubble will pop big-time this year I think

Lego is absurdly expensive, and Disney won't really have much for a marquee make to attach to it again imo

I have no idea how skylanders did this year

The wind has really gone out of the sails for Skylanders. It's having to compete with way too many well known brands now, and the lack of expansion into other media is going to ensure it doesn't grow further.

 

[EthanC]

Hah, Pachter never misses an opportunity to slam Nintendo. He's most likely right though. If Nintendo wants to make a splash on mobile, this isn't the way to do it. I also agree about Microsoft. They're a complete non-factor everywhere but America and they couldn't even win the holidays in the US this year. Sony should go for the throat in the US and end it.

 

[down 2 orth]

What exactly will the NX system be? It seems like these guys already have a good idea...

 

[bigkrev]

Agree with Pachter on Miitomo- I see myself downloading it, using it for a few days, and then deleting it without ever spending a cent

When they launch their Rayman Jungle Run clone with a Mario skin though, they should clean house, regardless of the pricin model.

 

[Linkyn]

Reading some of this, I really wonder whether there's a decent write-up of all the big events / stories / games of 2015 readily available somewhere.

 

[gigantor21]

Agree with Pachter on Miitomo- I see myself downloading it, using it for a few days, and then deleting it without ever spending a cent

When they launch their Rayman Jungle Run clone with a Mario skin though, they should clean house, regardless of the pricin model.

Given how well regarded the Rayman mobile games are, I really don't get why people say it's impossible to adapt a more traditional Nintendo platformer to a mobile setting. Obviously just doing a 1:1 copy/paste won't work, but still.

 

[sörine]

Given how well regarded the Rayman mobile games are, I really don't get why people say it's impossible to adapt a more traditional Nintendo platformer to a mobile setting. Obviously just doing a 1:1 copy/paste won't work, but still.

NSMB2 already had transitional autorunner levels mixed in, EPD could definietly craft a pretty amazing full entry if they wanted to. I just don't think it's that likely this is one of the five mobile games even if it wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

[SatoAilDarko]

Given how well regarded the Rayman mobile games are, I really don't get why people say it's impossible to adapt a more traditional Nintendo platformer to a mobile setting. Obviously just doing a 1:1 copy/paste won't work, but still.

All of their upcoming games have been confirmed to be free-to-play and Iwata talked about getting users to use the apps daily.

I definitely see a game with Mario jumping in it but that game has to be able to be monetized for a long time. It won't be close to their traditional platformers.