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[sonycowboy]

I am quite skeptical of Mr Pachter's assumptions.

In his latest TTWO article, he speculates that GTA: SA will be released for Xbox in Q2:05 vs a Q1:05 launch on the PS2. His thought is that Sony only really wanted the holidays to themselves. He also thinks that GTA: SA will challenge HALO 2 for the best selling XBox game of alltime.

Partial Release:
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Beyond Q3, Take-Two’s outlook is quite positive. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas for the PS2 is expected to be debut exclusively on PS2 in North America on October 19, 2004 and in Europe on October 22, 2004. Our model assumes that the company will sell-in 4.5 million units in FY:04, assumes that another 4.5 million units will be sold in Q1:05, and assumes another 2 million units will be sold over the balance of FY:05. We believe that the Xbox version will likely be released after the holidays, as we believe that any Sony exclusive is intended as a driver of console sales. However, we fully expect the Xbox version of the game to debut during FY:05, and estimate unit sell-in of 1 million for Q2:05 and 500,000 for the remainder of the fiscal year.

In total, we forecast that 12.5 million units of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas will be sold between the launch date and the end of FY:05. When the prior version, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City, was released in 2002, the installed PS2 base in the U.S. and Europe was 27.2 million units. At year-end, we forecast an installed PS2 base of 55.6 million units, and an installed Xbox base of 16.7 million units. In other words, we believe that the addressable market for Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas is somewhere between 200 – 250% of the addressable market for its predecessor, which sold through 11.5 million units worldwide.

 

[Templar Wizard]

great scott!

he has a point. SA will sell some horrific quanities. 15 million plus is not an unreasonable guess.

 

[bogg]

Mmm, I hope this is true, cuz if it is that means we'll get the pc version around the same time

 

[Falch]

Our model assumes that the company will sell-in 4.5 million units in FY:04, assumes that another 4.5 million units will be sold in Q1:05, and assumes another 2 million units will be sold over the balance of FY:05.

Isn't Q1:05 still FY:04? Or does he mean Q1 FY 2005, which in effect is april, may, june? Either way, it doesn't fit.

 

[cja]

Isn't Q1:05 still FY:04? Or does he mean Q1 FY 2005, which in effect is april, may, june? Either way, it doesn't fit.

Take-Two have an odd financial year, starts in November. So he is expecting 4.5m to be shipped at launch in October and then another 4.5m for November, December, January followed by an extra 2m from February to October.

 

[Falch]

I see. Thx for clearing that up.

 

[SolidSnakex]

great scott!

he has a point. SA will sell some horrific quanities. 15 million plus is not an unreasonable guess.

Yep, SA is definetly going to end up being the best selling game this generation on consoles. Which would mean the top 3 best selling console games will all be GTA games. Unless GT4 can do something to derail it a bit by knocking one down.

 

[The Faceless Master]

but... i thought people were boycotting SA cuz the main character wasnt white...

 

[maskrider]

I will only buy PC versions of GTA (I have GTA 3 and VC on PC), like VC, the game will be better played in max AA and AF at 1280x768 wide screen.

 

[open_mouth_]

Yep, SA is definetly going to end up being the best selling game this generation on consoles. Which would mean the top 3 best selling console games will all be GTA games. Unless GT4 can do something to derail it a bit by knocking one down.

Larry Bird will be first in line to purchase this bad boy.

 

[deadhorse32]

I will only buy PC versions of GTA (I have GTA 3 and VC on PC), like VC, the game will be better played in max AA and AF at 1280x768 wide screen.

This man speak the truth

 

[jarrod]

Yep, SA is definetly going to end up being the best selling game this generation on consoles. Which would mean the top 3 best selling console games will all be GTA games. Unless GT4 can do something to derail it a bit by knocking one down.

Doubt it, GT4 will be huge but I'm not expecting much more impact than GT3... in fact I'd say anticipation and hype for GT3 was much bigger at this point. GT4 mobile might eat into GT4 numbers also if SCEI/PD delivers it soon enough.

 

[sonycowboy]

Doubt it, GT4 will be huge but I'm not expecting much more impact than GT3... in fact I'd say anticipation and hype for GT3 was much bigger at this point. GT4 mobile might eat into GT4 numbers also if SCEI/PD delivers it soon enough.

I think GT4 will do better than GT3 initially did. The userbase is like 7-8 times larger and almost half of GT3's sales came from being the premier Greatest Hits title for the longest time. It was like a mini-GTA3 or mini-Halo in that it was on the charts for like 18 months or so. It should get close.

 

[Solid]

I'm getting the PS2-version. I sold my versions of GTA3 and VC when the Double Pack was released on Xbox and it wasn't worth it when I think of it. Sure there's some nice extra effects in there but that's just it. And it's very frustrating to play and find everything in the games one more time. The custom soundtrack was a great thing though.. I love to cruise around in VC and listen to the SSX3 soudtrack

It looks alot better in the collection with all three games on the same console though. So the Xbox port isn't completely out of the question.

 

[Subitai]

That's an incredible number. He has to forecast an Xbox release date to take into the residule sales it will get. That's another million in the US.

Anyway, this generation has been defined by GTA more than any other game.

 

[jarrod]

I think GT4 will do better than GT3 initially did. The userbase is like 7-8 times larger and almost half of GT3's sales came from being the premier Greatest Hits title for the longest time. It was like a mini-GTA3 or mini-Halo in that it was on the charts for like 18 months or so. It should get close.

A larger userbase doesn't always guarantee things though, and GT3 had the benefit of being one of the first AAA games on the rapidly growthing and hungry PS2 userbase in a much less crowded market. I think all combined GT3 sold almost 11 million worldwide (with the benefit of a pack-in release too), I doubt GT4 will make it that far... GT3 also had the benefit of being "new" as the first next-gen GT on PS2 while GT4 is just a sequel... I dunno, GT3/2000 was one of the most anticipated games around since it's initial showing and I really just can't say the same for GT4... the hype just isn't there this time.

 

[dorio]

That's an incredible number. He has to forecast an Xbox release date to take into the residule sales it will get. That's another million in the US.

Anyway, this generation has been defined by GTA more than any other game.

It may have sold the most but Halo has defined this generation with its infinite replayablity and the introduction of halo lan parties.

 

[sonycowboy]

It may have sold the most but Halo has defined this generation with its infinite replayablity and the introduction of halo lan parties.

Please.

Look at Jak 2, Spiderman 2, Simpsons: Hit and Run, Tony Hawk: Underground, True Crime: Streets of LA, Mafia, Driver 3, The Getaway, etc, etc. The clones are everywhere.

The innovation was the go anywhere do anything world that GTA created. I'm certainly not saying that GTA is the best game this generation, but it has had by far the most influence.

 

[evil ways]

It may have sold the most but Halo has defined this generation with its infinite replayablity and the introduction of halo lan parties.

Nah, GTA is still more recognized and praised overall, plus it got tons of exposure and press, both good & bad. Talk about infinite replayability, open ended gameplay that let's you do whatever you want, from racing, shooting, flying, sailing, buy property, listen to music etc.

Halo may be one of the best games this gen, but in the end it's just another FPS, and before it came out there were and still are a ton of those in the market.

 

[dorio]

Nah, GTA is still more recognized and praised overall, plus it got tons of exposure and press, both good & bad. Talk about infinite replayability, open ended gameplay that let's you do whatever you want, from racing, shooting, flying, sailing, buy property, listen to music etc.

Halo may be one of the best games this gen, but in the end it's just another FPS, and before it came out there were and still are a ton of those in the market.

If it was just another fps then it wouldn't still be at the top of the charts after all this time; its alot more than just another fps.

 

[Lyte Edge]

I think I'm going to hold off on this title (for once!) until the PC/Xbox releases make it out. After playing GTA on XBox for so long now, I don't think I can go back to it on the Playstation unless it gets the same visual options (480p!), but even then, I'd miss the custom soundtrack feature too damn much.

 

[Ghost]

I couldn't care less about the Xbox version, the PC version is the one im waiting for.

 

[bishoptl]

It may have sold the most but Halo has defined this generation with its infinite replayablity and the introduction of halo lan parties.

No.

As mentioned before, GTA's incredible success has been aped by developers across the board, and those ideas incorporated in more genres than I'd care to admit. Halo, while an excellent (and high selling) title, is just another FPS at the end of the day, executed exceptionally well. Lan parties? System link titles just as popular as Halo, if not more so (GT3) have been around a lot longer.

 

[Pimpbaa]

I'm gonna pick up the ps2 versoin and then sell it when the xbox version comes out (I prefer to play these games on a console). No way in hell i'm waiting, haha.

 

[Kudie]

I think Subitai is right. Look at all the sales, all the publicity (as was stated, both good and bad) and the influence the game has had on other titles.

 

[fo shizzle]

I could be reading it wrong, but don't those numbers put it as the best-selling independent (non-system-bundled) game ever?

 

[Justin Bailey]

I could be reading it wrong, but don't those numbers put it as the best-selling independent (non-system-bundled) game ever?

Mario 3 did around 20 million I believe.

 

[fo shizzle]

I thought Super Mario Bros. 3 was more like 15.5 million worldwide?

 

[Mooreberg]

If it was just another fps then it wouldn't still be at the top of the charts after all this time; its alot more than just another fps.

Goldeneye was on the charts forever last gen, and Half-Life sold more than both of them. FPS were popular well before Halo was released.

I could be reading it wrong, but don't those numbers put it as the best-selling independent (non-system-bundled) game ever?

As mentioned, SMB3 sold way more than that, and I'm guessing there were some 16bit games that have sold more as well.

But unless they totally botch it, GTA SA should be the top selling post-16bit console game. Vice City is already neck and neck with SM64, and past it if you count the Vice City discs in the 500K double packs that were sold on PS2. And I'm only comparing PS2 skus because SM64 didn't come out on two other systems, which would warp an overall comparison.

 

[Neutron Night]

Mario 3 was at 11 million in 1996. Somehow I doubt it sold a ton of copies since then. It deserved to sell the numbers it did, but it was destined to be surpassed.