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Guess Atlus USA's next game reveal

Well, for one, they've actually published Knights in the Nightmare (in two different editions) and Devil Survivor (also in two different editions) since then, so I really wouldn't attribute too much as a general rule to their decision to drop Luminous Arc and skip out on Summon Night. But also, Atlus has published far fewer Japanese games in general since then, and yet jokes aside no one's seriously suggesting that this proves they're announcing a Western title here.

Knights in the Nightmare is more of a hybrid. It plays in real time and feels more like a puzzle game with layers of complex mechanics than a traditional turn based tactics game. Furthermore, Knights in the Nightmare was published in NA in 2008, in the same time period as their big SRPG push. Of course they'd publish Devil Survivor, it's a first party title and it sold well.

Gungnir has several strikes against it. The only way I could see Atlus rationalizing it is if they saw Tactics Ogre's sales and thought Gungnir could do the same, since it's a similarly generic SRPG.
 
Knights in the Nightmare is more of a hybrid. It plays in real time and feels more like a puzzle game with layers of complex mechanics than a traditional turn based tactics game. Furthermore, Knights in the Nightmare was published in NA in 2008, in the same time period as their big SRPG push. Of course they'd publish Devil Survivor, it's a first party title and it sold well.

Gungnir has several strikes against it. The only way I could see Atlus rationalizing it is if they saw Tactics Ogre's sales and thought it had an audience, since it's a similarly generic sandbox style SRPG.

Gungnir is a Dept Heaven Episode game. It's a major original title from Sting. Atlus Japan has a publishing contract with Sting which might or might not extend to the US, but Sting generally wants Atlus to help publish their games overseas. It might or might not be a similar situation with Gust and NISA.

Such agreements tend to overwrite "common sense" especially if the games can actually be profitable even with low sales numbers.
 
I dunno dudes I don't think it's gonna be either.

Gungnir would have been the best guess based on the timing of past Atlus announcements, but I honestly thought they had exited the ultra-niche industry.

http://atlus.com/forum/showpost.php?p=266670&postcount=3

Maybe this is a random nobody or something and I'm over-reading it, but the post made the rounds a while back and seems logical to me. I don't read the Atlus forums regularly though so I'm probably missing context or something, the dude seems to be teasing the speculators in threads over there right now so who knows, decide for yourselves. The only Atlus game I'm fiending for anyways is Eternal Punishment PSP.
 
Gungnir is a Dept Heaven Episode game. It's a major original title from Sting. Atlus Japan has a publishing contract with Sting which might or might not extend to the US, but Sting generally wants Atlus to help publish their games overseas. It might or might not be a similar situation with Gust and NISA.

Such agreements tend to overwrite "common sense" especially if the games can actually be profitable even with low sales numbers.

What has that "publishing contract" gotten them lately? They've skipped over two Union games. It doesn't matter how major Gungnir is to Sting, the name recognition isn't there, and it's on a system that is largely regarded as deceased in NA, especially considering the lack of backwards UMD compatibility with Vita. Gungnir would have been announced by now if it were being localized (it's well over a year old by now), while Growlancer: Over Reloaded was released in April 2011.

Finally, Atlus is too big a company now to be publishing likely unprofitable games like Gungnir now. I was going to link to that atlus.com forum post that randomkid just linked to as evidence.
 
I dunno dudes I don't think it's gonna be either.

Gungnir would have been the best guess based on the timing of past Atlus announcements, but I honestly thought they had exited the ultra-niche industry.

http://atlus.com/forum/showpost.php?p=266670&postcount=3

Maybe this is a random nobody or something and I'm over-reading it, but the post made the rounds a while back and seems logical to me. I don't read the Atlus forums regularly though so I'm probably missing context or something, the dude seems to be teasing the speculators in threads over there right now so who knows, decide for yourselves. The only Atlus game I'm fiending for anyways is Eternal Punishment PSP.

I wouldn't have expected Atlus to bring over Growlanser or Gungnir given their recent direction, but they might see it as worthwhile to pacify their restless traditional fanbase. By choosing the clues they have, Atlus USA is directly referencing two Atlus Japan games with vocal fans who want to see them localized. If the answer is neither, then they have just given the middle finger to those fans. Would they really want to make them upset in this way?

Finally, Atlus is too big a company now to be publishing likely unprofitable games like Gungnir now. I was going to link to that atlus.com forum post that randomkid just linked to as evidence.

I don't see how Growlanser would be more profitable for Atlus than Gungnir. It wouldn't sell more, at least to any significant extent, and the localization costs would likely be higher.
 
It may also simply mean they won't do stuff like, say, Rondo of Swords or My World, My Way. The games no one hears about, have no established US base to sell to, and tend to be received poorly. Instead they'll probably be looking closer to home (these games) or bigger Japanese properties they can bring out (Demon's Souls, King of Fighters) while ignoring the third party stuff that companies like Xseed, Aksys, or NISA will gladly handle these days.

That, and I think sticking with western games still comes down to the same rule as before: they need to be profitable. I imagine their digital games beyond Droplitz are modest successes, and Game of Thrones will probably be nicely lucrative, but Cursed Crusade seems to have been an out and out tank and I half expect will be the kind of thing Atlus tries to avoid in the future.

Edit: I also DO imagine however that this may change somewhat depending on how the handhelds shake out, we're in a bit of a transition period and few portable games are significant successes, there's few choices on consoles other than the Wii that are practical to bring out, and the Wii itself seems to be in a similar position as handhelds for more niche/hardcore games. I could see however early-to-mid 3DS/Vita being much better for niche Japanese games than late DS/PSP.
 
I dunno dudes I don't think it's gonna be either.

Gungnir would have been the best guess based on the timing of past Atlus announcements, but I honestly thought they had exited the ultra-niche industry.

http://atlus.com/forum/showpost.php?p=266670&postcount=3

Maybe this is a random nobody or something and I'm over-reading it, but the post made the rounds a while back and seems logical to me. I don't read the Atlus forums regularly though so I'm probably missing context or something, the dude seems to be teasing the speculators in threads over there right now so who knows, decide for yourselves. The only Atlus game I'm fiending for anyways is Eternal Punishment PSP.

I hadn't seen that post before. I don't know if that person is actually a fully-fledged Atlus employee or some sort of CM volunteer, but that sort of fuck-you post to your so-called "faithful" fans is a really bad idea if you want them to remain as such.
 
This.

Persona 5 or Persona 4-2 a direct follow up to those characters.

I'd pay literally double retail for one of those games, and have little to no interest in almost anything else they are going to put out.

Ok, so you didn't notice the thread title either.
 
Right. I was talking about NA localization.

I don't see how Growlanser would be more profitable for Atlus than Gungnir. It wouldn't sell more, at least to any significant extent, and the localization costs would likely be higher.
I'm not sure about that. Growlanser has been localized before and has more name recognition than a new IP. Either way I wouldn't be particularly interested. Gungnir is an ok SRPG but it's rather generic and one of Sting's least interesting games overall. I'd rather they localize another Union game.
 
I'm not sure about that. Growlanser has been localized before and has more name recognition than a new IP. Either way I wouldn't be particularly interested. Gungnir is an ok SRPG but it's rather generic and one of Sting's least interesting games overall. I'd rather they localize another Union game.

Growlanser does have more name recognition, and if it was on any platform besides the PSP I'd say it would be likely to sell more. As it is, the only people buying it in the West would be the same group of people who buy every niche PSP game that gets localized.
 
Atlus U.S.A. said:
We're a business, not a magical JRPG fairy that grants all your localization wishes. So you'll have to suck it up, and just accept that to be how it is. But things aren't necessarily that grim, 'cause where we once existed in the market, other newer, small companies like Aksys, etc. can move in and bring over those niche titles that are no longer viable for us. So go bug them to do all those niche titles.

So ends Business 101 class for the day.

Wow, I'm so thankful Perry McGillicutty descended from his business throne to educate the "great unwashed" that he used to have to suck up to, but not anymore cause now Atlus is "upmarket".
They should probably get someone to speak to fans that won't effectively give them the finger like this.

So do they want to be a serious western publisher and leave the niche rpg localizations behind them? What are they going to publish now?
 
Wow, I'm so thankful Perry McGillicutty descended from his business throne to educate the "great unwashed" that he used to have to suck up to, but not anymore cause now Atlus is "upmarket".
They should probably get someone to speak to fans that won't effectively give them the finger like this.

So do they want to be a serious western publisher and leave the niche rpg localizations behind them? What are they going to publish now?

That post sounds pretty bad when taken out of context, but if you read the entire thread, you'll see that the admins are more worried about their customers than this singular quote suggests.

I really think this is a case where both the company and the fans feel betrayed to some degree. (Maybe betrayed is the wrong word. Exasperated maybe?)
 
Wow, I'm so thankful Perry McGillicutty descended from his business throne to educate the "great unwashed" that he used to have to suck up to, but not anymore cause now Atlus is "upmarket".
They should probably get someone to speak to fans that won't effectively give them the finger like this.

So do they want to be a serious western publisher and leave the niche rpg localizations behind them? What are they going to publish now?

The console port of this
 
I dunno dudes I don't think it's gonna be either.

Gungnir would have been the best guess based on the timing of past Atlus announcements, but I honestly thought they had exited the ultra-niche industry.

http://atlus.com/forum/showpost.php?p=266670&postcount=3

Maybe this is a random nobody or something and I'm over-reading it, but the post made the rounds a while back and seems logical to me. I don't read the Atlus forums regularly though so I'm probably missing context or something, the dude seems to be teasing the speculators in threads over there right now so who knows, decide for yourselves. The only Atlus game I'm fiending for anyways is Eternal Punishment PSP.

And people get confused about my "this ain't no charity" comments in this day and age of Operation Rainfall.

Tangent: my god, they have one loose corporate culture where they're allowed to verbally smackdown riffraff like that with frankness.
 
Well that's cool if you know some secrets. Like I said it could be possible Atlus is looking at the sales of Tactics Ogre and thinking "hey, Gungnir is also a generic fantasy SRPG that the same audience could latch on to". I think that potential view is short sighted and ignores the fact that your typical JRPGamer deliberately ignores any tactics game that doesn't have the word Final or Ogre in it, and will lead them to yet more disappointing sales. Tactics Ogre's fanbase is practically a cult in the way it deifies TO beyond reproach or criticism and refuses to compare any TO to any other game besides other versions of TO.

That Atlus post is harsh, but they have been disappointed by JRPG sales in the past, and with a larger staff, they need to earn a greater profit on each game to maintain their current size or continue to grow. As a US business, not growing = death. And why would they continue to localize low margin JRPGs when they could take on bigger games and earn more of a profit?
 
Knights in the Nightmare is more of a hybrid.

Not really relevant to this kind of argument. From a market segmentation perspective, it's much more straightforwardly aiming at the SRPG market (both because Sting titles are mostly SRPGs and because -- inasmuch as these two groups are different in the first place -- its structure makes it more appealing to SRPG fans than typical narrative RPG fans.)

Furthermore, Knights in the Nightmare was published in NA in 2008, in the same time period as their big SRPG push.

What? No it wasn't. DS version came out June 2009, PSP version November 2010.

Like I said it could be possible Atlus is looking at the sales of Tactics Ogre and thinking "hey, Gungnir is also a generic fantasy SRPG that the same audience could latch on to".

I think it's more likely that your whole theory just doesn't accord that closely with the actual situation on the ground and Atlus isn't thinking about things in the same terms.

I really think this is a case where both the company and the fans feel betrayed to some degree. (Maybe betrayed is the wrong word. Exasperated maybe?)

I don't really see the cause on Atlus' side. Dealing with whiny customers is a universal issue, not one specific to them; low sales on certain niche titles is definitely unfortunate for Atlus but it's hard for me to think of many cases where it'd be fair to say that a much-requested game fell flat because Atlus' fanbase failed to deliver on an implicit promise to support it.

On the converse side, it's certainly true that there are business realities that stop Atlus from being a niche-game vending machine for their fans, and it's worth talking about that reality, but it's frankly pretty embarrassing to let a post like that go out with some semblance of a company seal of approval attached. I have yet to see any company where that kind of loathing for their customer base as a whole was well-earned.
 
What has that "publishing contract" gotten them lately? They've skipped over two Union games.
3 actually, but who's counting. But there is certainly a more specific as to why Atlus USA would pass over the Union franchise of games that is not as pertinent to Gungnir or the Dept. Heaven series in general.

Especially considering the lack of backwards UMD compatibility with Vita. Gungnir would have been announced by now if it were being localized.
And exactly what's to stop them from also releasing a DD version on PSN like they've done with other Sting titles, so that everyone who wants to play it on a Vita or PSPGo can as well? Plus we all know Sting has a history the porting bug and an updated version will probably be making its way to Vita or 3DS anyway, so it doesn't matter when Atlus does it, because it just lays down the groundwork for the subsequent version as well

That Atlus post is harsh, but they have been disappointed by JRPG sales in the past
Because Persona and Demon Souls were pretty poor performing JRPGs for them, right?
 
And why would they continue to localize low margin JRPGs when they could take on bigger games and earn more of a profit?

Maybe they can't. Have you considered that there is also a short supply of "bigger games" that Atlus can realistically publish to earn more of a profit? They got lucky with Demon's Souls. There aren't that many big games out there which Atlus can afford. At some point they gotta keep working, and their specialization is still "niche" Japanese games which come from their Japanese parent publisher.
 
I think the game will be "Ginger". It will be half-dating simulator/half soul-searching game. As you gain a soul (you start out with no soul given your gingerness), you can proceed further in the dating simulation aspects.
 
I dunno dudes I don't think it's gonna be either.

Gungnir would have been the best guess based on the timing of past Atlus announcements, but I honestly thought they had exited the ultra-niche industry.

http://atlus.com/forum/showpost.php?p=266670&postcount=3

Maybe this is a random nobody or something and I'm over-reading it, but the post made the rounds a while back and seems logical to me. I don't read the Atlus forums regularly though so I'm probably missing context or something, the dude seems to be teasing the speculators in threads over there right now so who knows, decide for yourselves. The only Atlus game I'm fiending for anyways is Eternal Punishment PSP.

Wow, that drastically lowers my opinion of Atlus.

I don't think they should be localizing every JRPG in the sun, I'd be the first to say that they need to keep the lights on and be profitable and that would be an awful idea. But there's a pretty blatant lack of respect for the consumer there.

They are under no obligation to buy your niche RPGs if they do not want to. Similarly, you are under no obligation to bring this over. If you do, and it bombs, guess what, you made the decision to take that business risk and all the consumer can be blamed for is is being more complex than you thought.

Is there a point in that thread where they specify "Hey, this guy's kind of crazy and we absolutely don't think you're all contemptible nerds"? If not, that's disappointing, too.
 
Maybe they can't. Have you considered that there is also a short supply of "bigger games" that Atlus can realistically publish to earn more of a profit? They got lucky with Demon's Souls. There aren't that many big games out there which Atlus can afford. At some point they gotta keep working, and their specialization is still "niche" Japanese games which come from their Japanese parent publisher.

This is why the quote about "getting bigger" in the Atlus forum post confuses me. There's no untapped market of safe 1-3k-selling titles desperate for a publisher (either localized Japanese titles or Western titles without a publisher.) I don't see a lot of evidence that there's that much room for a "larger" Atlus USA or enough content to keep one going.
 
Wow, that drastically lowers my opinion of Atlus.

I don't think they should be localizing every JRPG in the sun, I'd be the first to say that they need to keep the lights on and be profitable and that would be an awful idea. But there's a pretty blatant lack of respect for the consumer there.

They are under no obligation to buy your niche RPGs if they do not want to. Similarly, you are under no obligation to bring this over. If you do, and it bombs, guess what, you made the decision to take that business risk and all the consumer can be blamed for is is being more complex than you thought.

Is there a point in that thread where they specify "Hey, this guy's kind of crazy and we absolutely don't think you're all contemptible nerds"? If not, that's disappointing, too.

No, in fact I find the later post from a "Site Admin" even more filled with contempt.

Manly Biceps said:
The RPG market is so divided in terms of what it wants versus what it wants to pay for. People want SRT. People want Brandish. People want Gungnir. But nobody wants to pay for all 3 of them, and too few want to pay for 1 of those 3 if it isn't the 1 from those 3 choices they wanted. That's how it is. The RPG market left us. We didn't leave the market, seeing as how we're STILL HERE.
 
2010 and 2011 were bleak for smaller rpgs getting US releases because so many of them moved to the PSP and the PSP was already dead over here by then.
 
Not really relevant to this kind of argument. From a market segmentation perspective, it's much more straightforwardly aiming at the SRPG market (both because Sting titles are mostly SRPGs and because -- inasmuch as these two groups are different in the first place -- its structure makes it more appealing to SRPG fans than typical narrative RPG fans.)
Being a gameplay oriented rather than narrative oriented game or being developed by a company that has made SRPGs before isn't a good reason to lump it in with SRPGs as far as publishing/sales support goes. If it didn't take place on a grid it would have almost no resemblance to a SRPG.

What? No it wasn't. DS version came out June 2009, PSP version November 2010.
You're right about that. I was looking at the Japanese DS release date.

I think it's more likely that your whole theory just doesn't accord that closely with the actual situation on the ground and Atlus isn't thinking about things in the same terms.
What else could they be looking at in their decision other than sales? Doesn't seem like there are any contractual obligations to publish Sting games in NA or we would have seen Blaze or Gloria Union.

Maybe they can't. Have you considered that there is also a short supply of "bigger games" that Atlus can realistically publish to earn more of a profit? They got lucky with Demon's Souls. There aren't that many big games out there which Atlus can afford. At some point they gotta keep working, and their specialization is still "niche" Japanese games which come from their Japanese parent publisher.
They seem to be interested in picking up European developers. If they're going back to niche games that would be interesting, but I doubt the sales will be any better than before. If their abandonment of the SRPG genre after their 2007-2008 bomb is any indication, they won't be returning to SRPGs anytime soon unless they are guaranteed sellers (such as something in the Shin Megami Tensei franchise with its built in fanbase).
 
Wow, that drastically lowers my opinion of Atlus.

I don't think they should be localizing every JRPG in the sun, I'd be the first to say that they need to keep the lights on and be profitable and that would be an awful idea. But there's a pretty blatant lack of respect for the consumer there.

They are under no obligation to buy your niche RPGs if they do not want to. Similarly, you are under no obligation to bring this over. If you do, and it bombs, guess what, you made the decision to take that business risk and all the consumer can be blamed for is is being more complex than you thought.

Is there a point in that thread where they specify "Hey, this guy's kind of crazy and we absolutely don't think you're all contemptible nerds"? If not, that's disappointing, too.

I felt the same way when reading that; however, the Atlus poster could have a case of mad due to some unsavory posts/posters in their forums.

Hmmm, I wonder how Persona 2: IS did.

Also, could it be Game of Thrones?
 
Being a gameplay oriented game or being developed by a company that has made SRPGs before isn't a good reason to lump it in with SRPGs.

It is when you're talking about market positioning and who the game is likely to sell to, yes.

I think "well, Luminous Arc 2 bombed, let's get out of SRPGs altogether" is not a good approximation of Atlus' publishing decision-making process to start with, but if it were I can't see how KitN wouldn't fall under the same umbrella. It's a strategy game with RPG elements; it's divided between animated cutscenes and interactive battle sequences on an isometric grid (i.e. the same game structure as FFT, FE, TO, etc.) and it doesn't have any of the gameplay elements that "regular" RPG fans would be used to or expect (like exploration, NPCs to talk to, dungeons, etc.) If it doesn't count, the only reason I could see why is that it's too weird which would not be a good pitch on its own for bringing it out where more typical games were left behind.

What else could they be looking at in their decision other than sales?

It's a question of which sales. I think KitN and Yggdra Union (being in the same series) or Hexyz Force and P2 (being on the same platform) would be more useful predictors of Gungnir's sales than (say) Luminous Arc 2, and there's at least anecdotal evidence to suggest the former group performed better than the latter.

If they're going back to niche games that would be interesting, but I doubt the sales will be any better than before.

Well, I mean, it's not like their Western releases have been lighting up the charts either.
 
It is when you're talking about market positioning and who the game is likely to sell to, yes.

I think "well, Luminous Arc 2 bombed, let's get out of SRPGs altogether" is not a good approximation of Atlus' publishing decision-making process to start with

Well let's see. From 2006-2008. Super Robot Taisen: Original Generation, Super Robot Taisen: Original Generation 2, Yggdra Union, Luminous Arc, Rondo of Swords, R-Type Command, Drone Tactics, Operation Darkness, Spectral Force 3, Zoids Assault, Yggdra Union PSP, Eternal Poison, and Luminous Arc 2. Some of these games were so bad, even I didn't buy them new, and I'm a fairly dedicated tactics game player. Now I'm sure at least a few of these turned a profit, but let's just say the bargain bin was a lonely, desolate wasteland of Atlus SRPGs in 2008. In fact most of those 2008 games were still in Xmas bargain bins.. in 2009.

2009-2011. Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor, Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice, Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked. Yeah, 3 games in 3 years, one of which is a slightly updated 3DS port. The numbers speak for themselves. They got burned hard by their earlier SRPG push and retreated back to the occasional sure seller. Now note that they have still been publishing niche traditional RPGs, but they've avoided niche SRPGs like the plague, and for good reason if their previous sales are any indication. Atlus's avoidance of SRPGs in 2009-2011 has followed a general industry trend, as well. These last two years have seen so many good yet unlocalized SRPGs and turn based tactics games it's starting to look like the gaming dark ages when almost nothing got localized.

I think Knights in the Nightmare is too different from SRPGs to state that it's a vote of confidence for the SRPG genre. I think it's likely the reason they took a risk on it is because it was different enough from an SRPG to give it a try. Furthermore I don't think the Sting name has much recognition or appeal and lumping Sting games together when most people don't even know that Sting developed all of them isn't sound logic.

Now I'm not saying I'd be disappointed if Gungnir was announced. I'd certainly buy it since it's not a totally awful Grindea Factory game or something. But I worry that if it's being published, Atlus is doing so for the wrong reasons, and the sales won't match up to what they're expecting, and we'll be back to square 1 again.
 
Used to be, every Atlus thread was a love fest. These days, the threads quickly turn to Atlus abandoning their fans, while insulting them for not being enough of a fan for their tastes.

I really hope this tease turns out to be something the Atlus faithful want, because I really don't think Atlus can afford another disappointment right now - and nothing is more disappointing than pulling the rug from under your feet after spending days building up your hope.
 
2009-2011. Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor, Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice, Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked. Yeah, 3 games in 3 years, one of which is a slightly updated 3DS port. The numbers speak for themselves. They got burned hard by their earlier SRPG push and retreated back to the occasional sure seller. Now note that they have still been publishing niche traditional RPGs, but they've avoided niche SRPGs like the plague, and for good reason if their previous sales are any indication. Atlus's avoidance of SRPGs in 2009-2011 has followed a general industry trend, as well. These last two years have seen so many good yet unlocalized SRPGs and turn based tactics games it's starting to look like the gaming dark ages when almost nothing got localized.

Atlus only did the first Disgaea.
 
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