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(Hardware) March 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes April 11

Whoa, why is everyone so high on PS3? I thought it was still supply constrained? If that's the case some of you guys seem way off.
 
Whoa, predictions all over the place... gaf cant even agree on the ordering. first interesting month in a while after the unexpected results in feb.

[360] 370k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 100k
[PS3] 350k
[PSP] 150k
[WII] 320k
 
gregor7777 said:
Whoa, why is everyone so high on PS3? I thought it was still supply constrained? If that's the case some of you guys seem way off.
Click to expand...

There are two reasons:

(1) PS3 is supply issues were not as servere in March.

(2) PS3 did 360K (with supply issues) in 4 weeks in February. Indicating that supply should be enough to satisfy 450K demand for that month (since March has 5 recorded weeks).
 
Anytime people say the 360 has outsold the PS3, the PS3 outsells the 360; and anytime people say the PS3 outsold the 360, the 360 always outsells the PS3...so judging by people's general predictions here, I'm saying PS3 outsells the 360, albeit not by much.

[360]370k
[NDS]500k
[PS2]90k
[PS3]390k
[PSP]110k
[WII]430k
 
Baki said:
There are two reasons:

(1) PS3 is supply issues were not as servere in March.

(2) PS3 did 360K (with supply issues) in 4 weeks in February. Indicating that supply should be enough to satisfy 450K demand for that month (since March has 5 recorded weeks).
Click to expand...

Actually it was way more severe in March than it was in February but you guys go with your high numbers. Even major non-game related news sources were running stories about it:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-godofwar16-2010mar16,0,4271362.story
 
OldJadedGamer said:
Actually it was way more severe in March than it was in February but you guys go with your high numbers. Even major non-game related news sources were running stories about it:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-godofwar16-2010mar16,0,4271362.story
Click to expand...

That does not mean it was worse in March? That just means it got more attention in March due to the high profile games coming to the PS3 during that time.

I mean the impression I got from the musing thread was that 20th Feb - 5th march was especially bad, but from 20th March onward, suply was pretty good.
 
Baki said:
That does not mean it was worse in March? That just means it got more attention in March due to the high profile games coming to the PS3 during that time.

I mean the impression I got from the musing thread was that 20th Feb - 5th march was especially bad, but from 20th March onward, suply was pretty good.
Click to expand...

If folks PS3 numbers here are right that means Sony was full of shit and supply wasn't tight for the month. As always, NPD will reveal all.
 
OldJadedGamer said:
If folks PS3 numbers here are right that means Sony was full of shit and supply wasn't tight for the month. As always, NPD will reveal all.
Click to expand...

Do you mean the ~400k range? If so, its not unreasonable to have tight supply and still sell ~400K PS3's in a 5 week period. I mean, they sold 360K PS3's in a 4 week period with tight supply.

Now if its ~500K, then yes, its unlikely to have been tight supply.

NB: Not sure what range of numbers you are talking about. Haven't looked at others predictions.
 
Baki said:
Do you mean the ~400k range? If so, its not unreasonable to have tight supply and still sell ~400K PS3's in a 5 week period. I mean, they sold 360K PS3's in a 4 week period with tight supply.

Now if its ~500K, then yes, its unlikely to have been tight supply.

NB: Not sure what range of numbers you are talking about. Haven't looked at others predictions.
Click to expand...

And here is where the disconnect is. You think that the supply was tight in February when in my area (downtown San Francisco) you could pretty much walk into any store in the area and easily pick up a PS3. In March, they were no where to be found... at all.

What city/state do you live in?
 
[360] 365k
[NDS] 560k
[PS2] 87k
[PS3] 345k
[PSP]120k
[WII] 520k

Having a hard time figuring out if FFXIII is going to give PS3 a bump or not, but Im guessing not
 
OldJadedGamer said:
And here is where the disconnect is. You think that the supply was tight in February when in my area (downtown San Francisco) you could pretty much walk into any store in the area and easily pick up a PS3. In March, they were no where to be found... at all.

What city/state do you live in?
Click to expand...
This is pretty bad logic.
 
cooljeanius said:
Don't forget the launch of the DSi XL.
Click to expand...

Thanks! Added.

Brakara said:
Was NPD March 09 also five weeks?
Click to expand...

Yes. I think it was NPD's software change in February 09 settling down, though, which would be why everything dropped in March 09.

Sho_Nuff82 said:
Is it odd that this and the software thread both completely ignore the launch of Bad Company 2? I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that it sold more units (and moved more hardware) than Final Fantasy XIII.
Click to expand...

Why would you think Battlefield 2 would move more hardware than FFXIII?

As for the other thread, it seems like most people are predicting for Battlefield 2, anyways. :P

Baki said:
I mean the impression I got from the musing thread
Click to expand...

Usually a bad idea. Just saying. :P
 
donny2112 said:
Thanks! Added.



Yes. I think it was NPD's software change in February 09 settling down, though, which would be why everything dropped in March 09.



Why would you think Battlefield 2 would move more hardware than FFXIII?

As for the other thread, it seems like most people are predicting for Battlefield 2, anyways. :P



Usually a bad idea. Just saying. :P
Click to expand...

Haha...Not the retail musing thread. But yes, I know where you are coming from.
 
OldJadedGamer said:
And here is where the disconnect is. You think that the supply was tight in February when in my area (downtown San Francisco) you could pretty much walk into any store in the area and easily pick up a PS3. In March, they were no where to be found... at all.

What city/state do you live in?
Click to expand...

didnt we run through this back in the February? They were very hard to be found in SoCal in Feb as well, and it was just worse in March.

It could still do 600k... or 300k... just like Wii doing >1 mil without "anyone" being able to find it anywhere.
 
[360] 360k
[NDS] 550k
[PS2] 80k
[PS3] 320k
[PSP] 100k
[WII] 400k

No real thought to these guesses.
 
gregor7777 said:
Whoa, why is everyone so high on PS3? I thought it was still supply constrained? If that's the case some of you guys seem way off.
Click to expand...


Yeah, but it had shipments on the last 4 or 5 days. So It's safe to assume that it'll sell well.
 
Not good good at this at all, but i'll have a go

[360] 380k
[NDS] 621k
[PS2] 60k
[PS3] 390k
[PSP] 187k
[WII] 680k
 
offshore said:
Anytime people say the 360 has outsold the PS3, the PS3 outsells the 360; and anytime people say the PS3 outsold the 360, the 360 always outsells the PS3...so judging by people's general predictions here, I'm saying PS3 outsells the 360, albeit not by much.

[360]370k
[NDS]500k
[PS2]90k
[PS3]390k
[PSP]110k
[WII]430k
Click to expand...

Can you provide an example of this? I can't recall a case where people (on average) predicting 360 outselling PS3 and it turned out the other way. (maybe once with a very small margine).

The reverse has happened many many times though.
 
[NDS] 650K
[Wii] 550K
[PS3] 390K
[360] 360K
[PSP] 110K
[PS2] 80K

Brakara said:
Was NPD March 09 also five weeks?
Click to expand...
The quarter-ending months are always five weeks, so yes. The only one that changes is January, which is usually 4 weeks but is occasionally 5 when things get too out of whack with the actual calendar.
 
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