Team Alucard
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Hillary Clinton Regains Momentum Against Donald Trump: Poll
- Thread starter Sir Alemeth
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I will try to be here provided I don't get killed for wearing my MAGA hat on campus on election day.
Fenderputty
Banned
The salt will be hypertension inducing
I'm optimistic for the debate, but I wouldn't underestimate Trump
https://twitter.com/FullFrontalSamB/status/778270057428246528?lang=en
https://twitter.com/FullFrontalSamB/status/778270258914144256?lang=en
https://twitter.com/FullFrontalSamB/status/778270057428246528?lang=en
https://twitter.com/FullFrontalSamB/status/778270258914144256?lang=en
He already surpassed her twice. Around RNC convention and earlier in the year. April, I think.
Pyroclastic
Banned
the debates will be so key, way more than in the last few elections I think. they'll try and make sure she doesn't look like death warmed up and monotonous and they'll try and make sure he looks vaguely presidential and doesn't spew his spontaneous verbal diarrhea and try and actually answer the questions put before him in some kind of coherent manner.
Mr. Giggles
Member
Stay out of Canada
Team Alucard
Banned
This isn't her worst week. Extreme carelessness was. Trump was gaining on her well before the pneumonia incident.
RustyNails
Member
State polling lags National polling. You will see upward tick in all the states by next week which will reflect this.That's only one poll. Overall you could say that Hillary is maybe stabilizing, but not improving.
Also, Trump flipped Florida recently.
As it stands, right now, Trump would only have to flip NH to win.
Lord Frieza
Member
That's only one poll. Overall you could say that Hillary is maybe stabilizing, but not improving.
Also, Trump flipped Florida recently.
As it stands, right now, Trump would only have to flip NH to win.
Florida, Nevada and Ohio are super close, though. There's actually other aggregates showing Florida and NC for Hillary or at basically a tie with no clear lean one way or the other. 538 right now is actually somewhat of an outliner for Trump's overall chances, for what it's worth. Most places still put the odds solidly in Clinton's favor. Even in 538, Trump doesn't look like he has much of a chance to flip NH
I don't believe you.
I'd like to read your posts in the thread about his charity but they are conspicuously absent. No consequences for those either. Other than maybe a little whiplash from trying to spin too hard.
Lord Frieza
Member
Trump has never surpassed Clinton in electorate polling
RedNalgene
Member
I agree that now the debates will be make or break for HRC. And unfortunately for her supporters, Trump does really well on his feet. Granted, he's not going to actually SAY anything of substance, but he ended up on the favorable side of every debate during the Republican ones, destroying each of the Republicans in turn. HRC is way more qualified than those Repubs, and she'll be very well prepared, but anything can happen.
Username1198
Member
I'm wearing diapies just incase. Tuck frump
Link
The Autumn Wind
People who support a white nationalist purely for being a white nationalist have no interest in any other factors.
Team Alucard
Banned
Gordon Shumway
Banned
#FucktRump 👉👌
Lord Frieza
Member
Are you serious with this...that is not how that works at all.
If there's one wild card aspect to Trump with the debates it's the involvement of Ailes. But I think the thing with that is that, despite what you may think, a lot of the candidates he coaches with those 'zingers' had solid footing in other ways. Reagan, Bush, Nixon were all real candidates with real abilities. Trump is not. No matter what Ailes does, he can't turn Trump into a real political force. That's why I'm still not super worried about it. A lot of people think one zinger is going to kill Hillary, but eh, I don't think one zinger will do it if the rest of the debates is mostly Hillary drilling Trump and Trump stumbling to give real answers is going to show a lot. People are also terrified of the media covering Trump positively no matter what, but that's mostly bullshit and fear-mongering. The media, in general, was pretty harsh to Trump's debate performances, and his debating has been almost universally seen as one of the big clinks in his armor.
And a lot of Ailes strategies depend on baiting your opponent with gotcha zingers, but you have to have a pretty sharp mind to deliver that properly. And Trump has shown, consistently, that he really doesn't have that. That's not a shot, either, that's just reality. He struggles to answer simple questions with simple answers that aren't needlessly convoluted or repetitive. There's a reason that Trump harped on the idea that the debates were rigged, and recently said he wanted debates that were not moderated. He knows it's probably his biggest weakness, and it the debates are, potentially, one of the biggest parts of an election.
I highly recommend that people look up Hillary debates, particularly her debates with Obama in '08. I get the feeling a lot of people really haven't seen her debate in these discussions. She's to debating what Obama is to speech-giving. She's probably the best debate in American politics right now.
8 years under a black man has driven the racist into a fury
Extra Sauce
Member
Whenever I start feeling hopeful about the future, I remind myself of that fact to temper my expectations.
Lord Frieza
Member
Okay, you can have those two days in the only place it has been recorded at, I guess.
Lord Frieza
Member
The comparison to electing Bush twice to a potential Trump election is almost as flawed as the comparison of this election to Brexit, to be honest. I hate how people just ignore context for the sake of fear-mongering comparisons sometimes.
eBay Huckster
Member
So why is the gap tightening every time I look at fivethirtyeight?
because fivethirtyeight has the "let's include everything" approach in a year where almost everything is shit
aggregate of aggregates still has literally everyone else above 65% Clinton and the biggest substantive difference between them is only 538's including shit like those weird Ipsos polls where Vermont goes for Trump
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
How does a 1% increase nationally mean it will put any particular state in play, much less NH?
What happened was that she became the focus of the news media instead of Trump and therefore suffered in the polls. The conventional wisdom for this election cycle is that whoever is in the spotlight suffers as a result. Clinton should therefore embrace this and let Trump wallow at the centre of his own self-created shitstorms.
There was no major shitstorms since the Khans.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Hmm, ok... wasn't fivethirtyeight 100% accurate for the last election? I thought their track record spoke for itself. They're suddenly not reliable anymore?
Gordon Shumway
Banned
eBay Huckster
Member
they're aight, i'm just wondering why everyone treats them like aggregate jesus when everyone else in the polling aggregation game was just as good for the last two cycles
(including PEC, which is literally just polls and one other prior and yet has the same track record as Nate Silver's Super Sophisticated Model)
(including PEC, which is literally just polls and one other prior and yet has the same track record as Nate Silver's Super Sophisticated Model)
Exactly
Lord Frieza
Member
Yeah, 538 is quoted a lot here, but it worth mentioning that they have been a pretty big outliner to actual percentage of a Trump win more or less since the general election starter. I don't say that to discredit 538, but I mean, it's kind of hard to ignore that they've consistently given Trump a higher chance than basically everyone else since generals officially started.
That's only one poll. Overall you could say that Hillary is maybe stabilizing, but not improving.
Also, Trump flipped Florida recently.
As it stands, right now, Trump would only have to flip NH to win.
OK this is getting repetitive, but how the fuck is this so close? If the shitlord doesn't win this election, some other smarter shitlord will just win the next one?
"Can't compare to Bush, can't compare to Brexit... Romney vs. Obama, on the other hand, is the exact same thing."
And Trump is doing worse with almost every demo than Romney was
Lord Frieza
Member
I mean, they were, but does that mean that they'll be 100% accurate for this one? It's worth mentioning that 538 also had Trump losing the primaries to Cruz I believe, despite the fact that everywhere else was reporting Trump as the clear winner. At some point, you have to acknowledge when someone is the outliner. Though, yes, it doesn't neccessarily discredit them.
Team Alucard
Banned
5 stages of grief.
Tons of HRC supports in denial about the Trump surge and are trying to discredit Nate Silver as a result.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
I just don't get it, drinking it or not, how do you make such an absurd jump to that particular conclusion.
WonkyPanda
Member
That's only one poll. Overall you could say that Hillary is maybe stabilizing, but not improving.
Also, Trump flipped Florida recently.
As it stands, right now, Trump would only have to flip NH to win.
How did he "flip" FL? Today's Monmouth and Saint Leo U has her up +4 and +2, respectively.
QuicheFontaine
Member
But it looks like Trump has the momentum right now...
Also, why would you trust 538 over random dudes on NeoGAF? Don't be irrational.
That's 2 out of how many?
eBay Huckster
Member
Don't you have another totally fictitious map to think up involving the victory of the white supremacist you're supporting?
Also, why read what I'm actually posting about aggregators when you can just shitpost instead?
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Trump knows how to come up with zingers with or without Ailes. I doubt anyone was coaching him for the "only Rosie O'Donnel" quip.
hipsterpants
Member
Nice to have a polling thread that doesn't read like the world is ending. If the debates go well (and they should) I can't see her falling back again.
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