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[Lothars]

The place where you can play Sony exclusives AND "everything else" And still look good and be cheaper is most appealing.

Exactly being at least a 100 dollars cheaper and not substantially less powerful is a huge selling point because your not really missing out that much by going for a Pro over an xbox one x.

The price is what will kill the xbox one x overall. It's a hard thing to justify for most people plus the lack of exclusives doesn't help anything.

 

[Sol Mori]

That right there tells you "exclusives" aren't as important as being the best at running all the 3rd party games. You can take almost any NPD top 20 list for ps4 and xbone each month and 15 or more are on both lists. Being the best version of those 15 and your system will have a better chance at being the sales leader. 360 did this in America last gen.

Exclusives tend to be how one manufacturer can differentiate themselves from another. Being "best" (read: higher resolution and/or framerates) is not necessarily something that makes a meaningful difference in sales.

The reasons that 360 outperformed the PS3 in the US are one, releasing a year earlier, and two, being much cheaper. The 360 was $299/$399 at launch vs the $499/$599 of the PS3 that was released a year later.

The XB1 X is not a cheap console at $499 and is not a new generation, so it would not get as much of a boost from early adopters. After all, if someone is looking to play XB1 games then they can get an XB1 S for much cheaper and have money left over to buy said games.

Will the X boost the XB1 family to #1 in NPD charts in November and December? It really depends on how many are upgrading. The XB1 X, like the PS4 Pro, is not really machine for new owners. Those that have not purchased an XB1 at this point in the generation are more likely to be price sensitive buyers, and as such, unlikely to choose the $499 console vs the cheaper $249 (current price) XB1 S.

Looking at a thread on last December's number the PS4 Pro was 15% of total PS4 consoles sold (238K out of 1,568K). I honestly do not see the XB1 X doing better with a console that is also $100 more. I would really peg the X at around 600k total over Nov and Dec and honesty think that all of these million plus predictions are rather bold.

Just a final reminder; the X is not competing against just the PS4 Pro, but also the PS4, Switch, and XB1 S as well. While Microsoft would probably prefer someone purchase the X; they'd be happy if that individual opted for an S instead since it is still an xbox.

 

[WeirdoStalkerJr]

I think it will do better than most people think. It's not gonna do Switch/PS4 numbers, but it will do fine.

Probably the most honest and realistic answer. Nintendo outselling Microsoft Xbox after Wii U. What a time to be alive.

 

[Matt]

So you're saying a statistic like a MAU or something similar might be more useful than the sales data of this mid-gen refresh?

Ha. No.

 

[Team Andromeda]

The price is what will kill the xbox one x overall. It's a hard thing to justify for most people plus the lack of exclusives doesn't help anything.

It isn't for most people (insert joke here) Its for the Die Hard console game who wants to play console games at their very best. Those sorts of people pay the money and have always paid a high price for system console launches.

It will more or less sell out for all of this year and for a couple of months into 2018. It's then that it will become more of a harder sell to MS after most of the hardcore have the unit. MS will either look to do a bundle or price cut or hope word of mouth will sell the system when people can see the improvements over the Pro.

It's not going to beat the PS4 or the Pro, but it should sell well enough and look to get MS back as being the best system to lead games on or make games on. That is one area that really must be hurting MS as it is a software corp and its One tools were like a step backward from their OG XBox and 360 days.

 

[Goalus]

So that would be PS4, because all multiplat racers run better on it at a higher resolution. It has Wipeout and (redout) which run at 60fps on PRO, it has driveclub which is arguably the best racer this gen for the hardcore racer fan with the most events and content I've ever seen and the best season pass of any game this gen....

That cheered me up, nice work!

I can though, I have a gaming PC and I can play Horizon, Apex and the upcoming Forza 7 at the highest settings....but I can't play Driveclub and Wipeout anywhere else...

Sure, IF you have a gaming PC (that still won't play Forza Horizon 1 & 2), you can play at least FH3. I just don't see how this works in favor of PS4.

 

[Ushay]

It isn't for most people (insert joke here) Its for the Die Hard console game who wants to play console games at their very best. Those sorts of people pay the money and have always paid a high price for system console launches.

It will more or less sell out for all of this year and for a couple of months into 2018. It's then that it will become more of a harder sell to MS after most of the hardcore have the unit. MS will either look to do a bundle or price cut or hope word of mouth will sell the system when people can see the improvements over the Pro.

It's not going to beat the PS4 or the Pro, but it should sell well enough and look to get MS back as being the best system to lead games on or make games on. That is one area that really must be hurting MS as it is a software corp and its One tools were like a step backward from their OG XBox and 360 days.

I agree here, a software company that can't output consistent top quality software is just ridiculous. Just hope they take the current situation as seriously as their fans do.

 

[Goalus]

Joke?

Why would that be a joke?

 

[ShadowkillXNA]

Right, and that's why choices are great. Enjoy bro.

Why so bitter?

So why were you so disengenuous with your reply to me ?
It was very clear that my opinion was my opinion and mine alone.
Again, your opinion won't cancel mine out.

 

[Necron]

It won't be a problem in the beginning. The "hardcore" and fans will buy one but in a few months is where the issues lie. I imagine sales will quickly slow down after launch.

This Xmas period will be interesting to analyse to say the least.

 

[nelo_inc]

It won't be a problem in the beginning. The "hardcore" and fans will buy one but in a few months is where the issues lie. I imagine sales will quickly slow down after launch.

This Xmas period will be interesting to analyse to say the least.

Agree.Without the hardcore it will face many problems finding an audience.
Even Xbox fans may just stay with the One S, very few reasons worthwhile to spend extra money.

It's all in the exclusives, and it got 0.0
I think that the xbox play anywhere is very bad for the xbox brand.

 

[rudger]

Well I'm considering getting one. But I love the Saturn and my Wii U, so I can only conclude that it will fail.

 

[The Greek Freak]

Outside of hardcore xbox fans, and people who are usually multi console owners (but hadn't gotten an xb1 yet) I don't expect it to sell much.

However the above audience is probably enough to make it worth it.

Also unless it sold Sega Saturn level bad Microsoft will say it sold way beyond their expectations (as they should for the PR).

I would be so so so much more interested if this was a clean break from the XB1 instead of a half step.

I rarely wish misfortune on a company (that isn't blatantly doing evil shit like Walmart) but I really hope pspro/xb1x sell poorly enough that the next iterations aren't half steps.

 

[Kayant]

Software releases are packed starting next year, even though they were all delayed but Sea of Thieves, Crackdown, State of Decay 2 all launch in the first or second quarter next year. Timed exclusive Black Desert also is due in spring. Ori looks like late summer release. I am guessing Forza launches next fall. So in terms of spreading their lineup out, I think they have learned that lesson.
MS also has exclusives signed that they are not ready to show because they want to adhere to the philosophy of announcing games that release within a year from now on. That is a lesson learned as well.

True 2018 is looking like a release cycle that we will last saw in the first year. Am defending curious to see what they will announce next E3 for holiday release if those games met their target release timeframe.

Sea of Thieves/Crackdown(If it comes out) are definitely ones that benefit from releasing in the quieter parts of the year.

 

[CuNi]

Hardcore Fans will probably be a good amount. I also think, most probably GameStop or so will make a trade in offer, where you trade your old Xbox and pay prob 200-300$ on top for the X. This will be a good incentive for some to upgrade from the Original Xbox Brick. S owners will most probably hold on to their console. I don't think many non-xbox owners will be gettint into the Xbox brand with a X though. So Original Xbox Owners and some S owners will probably make out the vast majority of sells.

IMHO.

 

[Rolf NB]

Less than 15%.

 

[Celine]

I expect Xbox One X to be bought mainly by core Xbox fans, it will spike sales in the holiday but I don't see having a big impact in the long term.

 

[NowhereFaded]

Before the price was announced I planned on getting one. But at $500 bones I'm out. At $400 I was there day one. This gen I play ps4 only. Last gen 360 only. $100 doesn't seem like much but to a family man like me it is.

 

[gamz]

So why were you so disengenuous with your reply to me ?
It was very clear that my opinion was my opinion and mine alone.
Again, your opinion won't cancel mine out.

All I said is that's your opinion. Keep your opinion and enjoy.

 

[thelastword]

That cheered me up, nice work!

It is the most unique and content rich racer this gen, that is not a lie, and it can't be played on any other platform including PC.

Sure, If you have a gaming PC (that still won't play Forza Horizon 1 & 2), you can play at least FH3. I just don't see how this works in favor of PS4.

Ahh ok, so we are now delving into BC games with Horizon 1, which is an old game and has nothing to do with this generation's releases......As for you not seeing how Forza on PC affects XBONEX sales, especially against PS4....What it does, is that it prevents persons who would buy this console (xbonex) for exclusives to do so, especially at $500.00, when their current PC can play these forza games just fine, at even higher settings too. Also, Forza is not that great of a racer (saleswise) that it will singlehandedly make people buy XBONEX irrespective of it being on PC.....It just doesn't have the pull of other stalwart racers....

 

[hanspampel]

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one and beating original Xbox One?

will be sold in more than just 13 markets day one
faster preoders than original Xbox One
better console than original Xbox One
same price

 

[Bgamer90]

Ahh ok, so we are now delving into BC games with Horizon 1, which is an old game and has nothing to do with this generation's releases......As for you not seeing how Forza on PC affects XBONEX sales, especially against PS4....What it does, is that it prevents persons who would buy this console (xbonex) for exclusives to do so, especially at $500.00, when their current PC can play these forza games just fine, at even higher settings too. Also, Forza is not that great of a racer (saleswise) that it will singlehandedly make people buy XBONEX irrespective of it being on PC.....It just doesn't have the pull of other stalwart racers....

This almost completely goes against Forza Horizon 3 still being in NPD charts.

Also, as I said before, I'm not sure why anyone would pay $500 on a console to only play exclusives on it. Buying an S seems far more logical as it's a significantly cheaper price for a console that a person wouldn't use as their main.

___________________

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one and beating original Xbox One?

will be sold in more than just 13 markets day one
faster preoders than original Xbox One
better console than original Xbox One
same price

No. It doesn't have true next gen hype behind it (in part, due to Microsoft still tying the X to the Xbox One brand) so it isn't going to do original Xbox One numbers. More pre-orders =/= more sales.

It should do well at launch for a mid-gen $500 console though. I think the majority of Xbox One Xs in November will be sold and I'm positive there won't be as many Xbox One Xs as there were original Xbox Ones back in November 2013.

 

[Purest 78]

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one and beating original Xbox One?

will be sold in more than just 13 markets day one
faster preoders than original Xbox One
better console than original Xbox One
same price

Unlike The Launch Xbox one it's not a new gen all the games will be playable on the S. Last gen lasted so long people couldn't wait for a new gen. I think that's a huge difference if you compare the launch X1 vs X1X.

 

[gamz]

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one and beating original Xbox One?

will be sold in more than just 13 markets day one
faster preoders than original Xbox One
better console than original Xbox One
same price

I'm in that club. How much will PUBG sell first day?

 

[hanspampel]

No. It doesn't have true next gen hype behind it (in part, due to Microsoft still tying the X to the Xbox One brand) so it isn't going to do original Xbox One numbers. More pre-orders =/= more sales.

It should do well at launch for a mid-gen $500 console though. I think the majority of Xbox One Xs in November will be sold and I'm positive there won't be as many Xbox One Xs as there were original Xbox Ones back in November 2013.

while i agree on "no true nextgen"
i find the hype to be above original Xbox One
at least for the vocal Xbox community on places like Reddit, Twitter etc.

how much of the day one original Xbox One sales were no preorders, tho?
hard to measure, but day one sales are to a vast majority preorders....

I'm in that club. How much will PUBG sell first day?

i don't think PUBG will have big day one sales unless the game will get a fixed release date some time in advance and a decent marketing push from Microsoft.

otherwise i expect PUBG on Xbox One to have a similar sales pattern to PUBG on PC,
or also Minecraft and Rocket League on console. They sell steady over time, not a huge amount initial and slow down heavily.

 

[Servbot24]

It will sell decently simply because XB1 sold decently (sold well actually), XBox is still a popular brand, and people like to buy new technology.

I think the bigger question is whether it will sell enough to confirm to MS that iterative consoles are a good idea. I'm not sure what their threshold is, but I kind of doubt it will sell so well that it will mark a new direction for console releases.

 

[blakep267]

while i agree on "no true nextgen"
i find the hype to be above original Xbox One
at least for the vocal Xbox community on places like Reddit, Twitter etc.

how much of the day one original Xbox One sales were no preoders, tho?
hard to measure, but day one sales are to a vast majority preoders....


i don't think PUBG will have big day one sales unless the game will get a fixed release date some time in advance and a decent marketing push from Microsoft.

otherwise i expect PUBG on Xbox One to have a similar sales pattern to PUBG on PC,
or also Minecraft and Rocket League on console. They sell steady over time, not a huge amount initial and slow down heavily.

They aren't going to just plop it on the console. Olunkess the port is really bad. Your gonna see sites like IGN and gamespot giving previews of it and then I can see a big launch event. Even halo wars 2 got an MS launch event so I can easily see this having it. Marketing dollars gotta go somewhere

 

[GLAMr]

I feel like somewhere between 1 and 2 million by Christmas. I only know one person who is buying one, but I'm sure a couple of other existing Xbowners I know would get one if they had the cash. As for lifetime sales... Who knows? I'm sure the Xbox brand will always do well in the US, and it is well liked here in Australia.

It seems to me that the biggest market for the One X is existing customers who like the MS platforms/services and can afford a hardware boost. Which is good, as if those X adopters sell their existing xbones on to new users, the userbase grows and everybody wins.

 

[qa_engineer]

I think it will do well but not enough to increase marketshare. MS may be able to claim top sales for 1 or 2 months but then things go back to PS4 switch domination.

You have to ask who is this console for.

-It's first and foremost geared towards Xbox die-hards who want the best xbox experience and can afford it.

-prospective console gamers who want a more premium experience.

-Early adopters and tech enthusiasts who don't have allegiance to any brand.

-People who have money to burn.

You average console gamer is not going to care or be willing to shell out 500 USD for a console. PC + PS4 only gamers are unlikely to switch as is the case with PCMR or PS4 only gamers


As a PC + PS4 pro gamer with access to almost all 3rd party titles and high end visuals this doesn't appeal to me.

 

[watdaeff4]

It is the most unique and content rich racer this gen, that is not a lie

As an owner of Driveclub and its season pass......this statement is much less fact than it is a biased opinion.

It's not unique at all, and as far as content Forza 6 and Forza Horizon 3 have more (much less the fact that FH3 is so much more "unique" than Driveclub it's not even funny as well as shits all over Driveclub when it comes to content)

About the only thing you can say that Driveclub has over Forza 6 is that the progression system of the SP campaign is better. Gameplay though? Not even close. Driveclub feels clunky compared to Forza

EDIT:
I just saw this hilarious post and realize there will be no rationalizing with you as you are clearly trolling or if you truly have this belief are not just biased but incredibly biased

it has driveclub which is arguably the best racer this gen for the hardcore racer fan with the most events and content I've ever seen and the best season pass of any game this gen....

All I can say to that statement is LOL

 

[ShadowkillXNA]

All I said is that's your opinion. Keep your opinion and enjoy.

Again, it was already very clear from my original post that it was my opinion and mine alone.
No need to feel so threatened by different preferences/opinions dude.

 

[TheJoRu]

Depends on what their expectations are, but it won't be hugely popular I think. The bigger question for me is whether the long-term goal (this pertains to the PS4 and PS4 Pro as well) is to eventually make Xbox One X the base model in the future once they're able to drop the price low enough, or if we'll see a whole new generation of hardware before that ever happens. If the former then yes, it'll sell well later on.

 

[gamz]

Again, it was already very clear from my original post that it was my opinion and mine alone.
No need to feel so threatened by different preferences/opinions dude.

LOL

 

[Deleted member 17706]

I don't see it selling better than the PS4 Pro and that thing isn't exactly flying off shelves, is it?

Anything over $300 for consoles is just not mass-market.

 

[univbee]

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one

That would be better than the PS2's launch (at a time when everyone wanted a DVD player) so absolutely no way that happens.

 

[hanspampel]

That would be better than the PS2's launch (at a time when everyone wanted a DVD player) so absolutely no way that happens.

WHAT.JPG

 

[ethomaz]

Why would that be a joke?

Because you can play Forza Horizon games without Xbox consoles now and in the future lol

It is obvious.

 

[Elandyll]

WHAT.JPG

I don't know about PS2 ... but you are literally the one who said it would do more than 1m in November NPD, aka US alone.

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one and beating original Xbox One?

will be sold in more than just 13 markets day one
faster preoders than original Xbox One
better console than original Xbox One
same price

You obviously can't mean WW, because the XB1 did 909.000 in the US alone in Nov 2013...

Between you and the fellow who thinks 1 to 2m in NPD launch month ... what are you smoking guys, I want some

 

[10k]

Probably similar to the Pro, which as of the last sales update 1 in every 5 PS4's sold was a Pro.

 

[watdaeff4]

Because you can play Forza Horizon games without Xbox consoles now and in the future lol

It is obvious.

Considering the original discussion was referring to consoles for racers then yeah he's right.

I realize you have a need to move the goalposts but you're just being obtuse at this point

It is obvious

 

[Duderino]

This isn't actually the case for NPD, we're in a second year of decline. Xbox One also sold less in 2016 than it did the previous year. Due to S, the back half of 2016 was much closer than the front half. But each six-month period--both before and after the S model launched--was down YoY versus 2015.

The first half of 2017 has been lower still. This was not wholly an effect of the final One X reveal at E3. January 2017 was higher than 2016--the highest Xbox One January, in fact. But by the end of February Microsoft had already fallen behind last year's pace, and they've remained that way (though the gap has indeed accelerated since E3). So far, 2017 is the worst the platform has ever done. One X will likely push it just high enough to escape that result for the entire year, however.

All the more reason why 2018 will be the true make or break time for the One X. The pressure for State of Decay 2, Crackdown, and Sea of Theives to collectively help sell systems has to be pretty high.

 

[Lady Gaia]

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one and beating original Xbox One?

It has a lot going against it, much of which has been pointed out earlier in the thread. Unlike the Xbox One at launch it:

Doesn't have a single game you can't play elsewhere, including a substantially less expensive console that has been in market for years.

Doesn't have the industry hype of a new generation launch.

Doesn't have the buzz of a wildly successful immediate predecessor under the Xbox brand. The Xbox One has certainly sold reasonably well, but it doesn't have the kind of wild brand enthusiasm the 360 had going for it.

I can see 1-2 million units during the holiday season if all goes well.

 

[ShadowkillXNA]

LOL

So you don't care that someone else finds the xbox library laughable and yet you still felt the need to respond to my post which was clear as day was my own opinion and no one elses.
Why was that gamz ?
Your actions are speaking way, way louder than your words.

 

[Netherscourge]

The price point is a sales killer.

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

LOL

So you don't care that someone else finds the xbox library laughable and yet you still felt the need to respond to my post which was clear as day was my own opinion and no one elses.
Why was that gamz ?
Your actions are speaking way, way louder than your words.

Jesus, you guys want to take this to PMs?

I expect 1mm over the holiday season.

 

[cakely]

anyone else is going with over 1 million day one and beating original Xbox One?

will be sold in more than just 13 markets day one
faster preoders than original Xbox One
better console than original Xbox One
same price

No, Because that's a ridiculous prediction.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

By definition, enthusiasts would want it for being sexy, new and powerful as a console, thats the market. And theres plenty of console gamers wanting power, which is the market MS are aiming for.

Enthusiasts aren't likely to be impressed with a machine that is less capable than the PC they already own.

Also historically speaking, console gamers don't give two shits about the power of a console. How many times have we seen the less technically capable machine dominate the market?