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Iowa 2008 Caucus Thread

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benjipwns said:
I tried looking for it, I'm not finding what I thought I read a few weeks back. I would say I was wrong, but instead, I will blame others by saying that Obama just says what people want to hear, so I interpreted his words about Pakistan was wanting to remove Musharraf.
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your level of cognitive dissonance is stunning.
 
scorcho said:
if i'm not mistaken, Obama is also a radical muslim and has said to his muslim supporters that he will destroy the US if elected.

this is fun!
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He was taught at a madrasah! Muslim confirmed!


Then again, we all went to a madrasah as it just means school.
 
KarishBHR said:
Here is why this just isn't true:

Momentum. Mainly for Obama this time around... Huckabee could just be a flash in the pan.

Bottom line is this to many people: A Black man just won a large election in a place with very few black people. All those blacks who were supporting clinton all this time.... will they really stand in the way of the first viable black candidate?

There will be some change in thought over the next few days... and if Obama wins NH he will take SC and if he takes all three, super tuesday could be his
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The whole white vs. black thing is ridiculous to me. I still don't get why people don't understand that the whites who voted for Obama are clearly democrat/independent leaning.

You don't always win a general election with that mix, and it doesn't say anything for how he will perform in the key states of the general election against a religion wielding Republican.
 
scorcho said:
if i'm not mistaken, Obama is also a radical muslim and has said to his muslim supporters that he will destroy the US if elected.

this is fun!
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Well, that is probably true, you know those muslims, always getting into things. I'm trying to find the things I saw, but google does not want to cooperate. It wasn't the deal breaker however, just the latest thing.

Now I am mildly confused as to what Obama's recent Pakistan policy is exactly.
 
TheKingsCrown said:
The whole white vs. black thing is ridiculous to me. I still don't get why people don't understand that the whites who voted for Obama are clearly democrat/independent leaning.

You don't always win a general election with that mix, and it doesn't say anything for how he will perform in the key states of the general election against a religion wielding Republican.
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The real battle is Oprah vs. Chuck Norris. I'm picturing a Gandalf-Saruman style fight to the finish.
 
benjipwns said:
Well, that is probably true, you know those muslims, always getting into things. I'm trying to find the things I saw, but google does not want to cooperate. It wasn't the deal breaker however, just the latest thing.
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well wouldn't that imply there's a chance that your entire view of Obama is built on faulty ground? or are you just looking for things that conform to your preconceived notions of what he represents or says.
 
benjipwns said:
If I'm not mistaken he wants to invade Pakistan to enact "regime change" there.
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Not regime change, but he did say he'd risk destabilizing the country if the potential for striking a target conflicted with diplomacy. And then he used the Bhutto assassination as an excuse to attack Hillary Clinton for uh... destabilizing Pakistan. Indirectly destabilizing it. As in, not at all. But hey, that's just the politics of hope for you. Completely different than the politics of personal destruction. Sooo audacious.
 
TheKingsCrown said:
The whole white vs. black thing is ridiculous to me. I still don't get why people don't understand that the whites who voted for Obama are clearly democrat/independent leaning
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Yes. A key demographic. We understand it plenty.
 
Obama got more ind. and republican votes than Hillary in Iowa but he isn't the electable one? Where is the logic in that.
 
APF said:
Not regime change, but he did say he'd risk destabilizing the country if the potential for striking a target conflicted with diplomacy. And then he used the Bhutto assassination as an excuse to attack Hillary Clinton for uh... destabilizing Pakistan. Indirectly. As in, not at all. But hey, that's just the politics of hope for you. Completely different than the politics of personal destruction. Sooo audacious.
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And he rears his head. I've been waiting for this.
 
scorcho said:
well wouldn't that imply there's a chance that your entire view of Obama is built on faulty ground? or are you just looking for things that conform to your preconceived notions of what he represents or says.
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Oh, probably the latter. I read over his entire "issues" part of his site a month or so ago, and I could swear that I saw some recent comments of his saying Musharraf should be removed from power.

I don't like him, it's a personality thing. Same with most of the candidates. If I'm wrong about the Pakistan thing, I'll admit it, my bad.
 
Tobor said:
The real battle is Oprah vs. Chuck Norris. I'm picturing a Gandalf-Saruman style fight to the finish.
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lulz :P

My instinct is that there will be racists in the south or wherever who also target Oprah. I am willing to bet you dollars to donuts that there are some people who don't believe Oprah should have meddled in this.
 
Cheebs said:
Obama got more ind. and republican votes than Hillary in Iowa but he isn't the electable one? Where is the logic in that.
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Exactly. Wasn't the big problem with Hillary her "negatives?" When people say they don't want to repeat 2004, but then choose the insubstantial "nice guy" over the divisive leader and the angry populist, there's some pretty heavy self-delusion going on.
 
Cheebs said:
Obama got more ind. and republican votes than Hillary in Iowa but he isn't the electable one? Where is the logic in that.
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Political double talk. If you say it enough, people will believe it, even past the hate and vitriol most republicans have for her.
 
Cheebs said:
Obama got more ind. and republican votes than Hillary in Iowa but he isn't the electable one? Where is the logic in that.
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I personally believe his proximity to that state calls the trend into question.

Don't you guys get it? Democrats are dealing with a Rove inspired Republican legacy. They have this system down to clockwork and it is going to take more than a message of change for Obama to win a general election in a country still dealing with racial issues as are viciously present in certain of its parts.
 
TheKingsCrown said:
Don't you guys get it? Democrats are dealing with a Rove inspired Republican legacy.
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Except the winner of the Republican party last night was the anti-Rove. His campaign was about love and sunshine.
 
TheKingsCrown said:
I personally believe his proximity to that state calls the trend into question.

Don't you guys get it? Democrats are dealing with a Rove inspired Republican legacy. They have this system down to clockwork and it is going to take more than a message of change for Obama to win a general election in a country still dealing with racial issues as are viciously present in certain of its parts.
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Please. While I've always said this election will be much closer than people expect, the Rove/Bush legacy is clearly on the wane. Obama is winning because he is the most visible expression of Anti-Bush sentiment possible and I'm starting to believe that is enough alone to win the nomination and perhaps the presidency.
 
Stoney Mason said:
Please. While I've always said this election will be much closer than people expect, the Rove/Bush legacy is clearly on the wane. Obama is winning because he is the most visible expression of Anti-Bush sentiment possible and I'm starting to believe that is enough alone to win the nomination and perhaps the presidency.
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Yes. Last night proved the Rove campaign style is not wanted. by EITHER party.
 
Cheebs said:
Yes. Last night proved the Rove campaign style is not wanted. by EITHER party.
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But another Rove style election will rise. And they will cater it to the vein of what Rove did without letting it be obvious. As many said last night, you are dealing with hardcore voters for the caucuses.

You will not be dealing with the same people in the general election.
 
Cheebs said:
Yes. Last night proved the Rove campaign style is not wanted. by EITHER party.
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Yeah, but Bush is still a Republican, no matter how far the GOP candidate tries to distance himself from Bush, he is still going to be haunted by the president.
 
TheKingsCrown said:
But another Rove style election will rise. And they will cater it to the vein of what Rove did without letting it be obvious. As many said last night, you are dealing with hardcore voters for the caucuses.

You will not be dealing with the same people in the general election.
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I can't see Huckabee going to the Rove style. Huckabee's charm is that he is not a neocon.
 
KarishBHR said:
Here is why this just isn't true:

Momentum. Mainly for Obama this time around... Huckabee could just be a flash in the pan.
Click to expand...


Is bullshit. It's a catchword for media types to use when they are chronicling the "horse race" aspect of this event. People in these early contests have been heavily courted for months and months and have mostly made up their minds on how they will vote.
 
ToxicAdam said:
Is bullshit. It's a catchword for media types to use when they are chronicling the "horse race" aspect of this event. People in these early contests have been heavily courted for months and months and have mostly made up their minds on how they will vote.
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People keep forgetting just how often the Iowa winner does NOT win NH. It happens easily half the time. You're smart guy I am curious who you think will win NH on both sides.
 
Cheebs said:
I can't see Huckabee going to the Rove style. Huckabee's charm is that he is not a neocon.
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And you don't think there will be Neocons backing him? They will try to push their policies as a wedge in support of him winning. When you dangle the most powerful position on the planet in front of a man, you don't think winning looks extremely attractive and you believe he won't buckle when the chips are down?

I don't know Huckabee well enough to know whether or not that's the case, but I suspect it is not.
 
TheKingsCrown said:
And you don't think there will be Neocons backing him? They will try to push their policies as a wedge in support of him winning. When you dangle the most powerful position on the planet in front of a man, you don't think winning looks extremely attractive and you believe he won't buckle when the chips are down?

I don't know Huckabee well enough to know whether or not that's the case, but I suspect it is not.
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Neocons hate him right now and are trying to tear him apart. Hopefully he will remember how they tried to destroy him and not let them sway him if he gets power.
 
Cheebs said:
I can't see Huckabee going to the Rove style. Huckabee's charm is that he is not a neocon.
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I can see his surrogates trying all that stuff. They are still Republicans and know how to run generally effective presidential campaigns. The problem is I think for once the people are ahead of the game. I don't think a lot of those tricks are going to work this go round.


I did a lot of thinking last night trying to understand this whole Obama thing which to be honest so far I haven't. The only thing I could come up with like I said, is that Bush has so damaged his party, that anybody who people even perceive as not being different enough from him are going to take a hit. Of course these perceptions are just that, perceptions meaning I don't necessarily agree with them but people are making a statement at the moment.
 
Stoney Mason said:
I can see his surrogates trying all that stuff. They are still Republicans and know how to run generally effective presidential campaigns. The problem is I think for once the people are ahead of the game. I don't think a lot of those tricks are going to work this go round.


I did a lot of thinking last night trying to understand this whole Obama thing which to be honest so far I haven't. The only thing I could come up with like I said, is that Bush has so damaged his party, that anybody who people even perceive as not being different enough from him are going to take a hit. Of course these perceptions are just that, perceptions meaning I don't necessarily agree with them but people are making a statement at the moment.
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I think it's too soon to start predicting this stuff about voters changing. We need to see NH first.
 
Cheebs said:
I think it's too soon to start predicting this stuff about voters changing. We need to see NH first.
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I will agree with this. I think there are a variety of reasons why Hillary will almost certainly win there. And who knows about Huckabeast.
 
ConsumerSquare said:
In what way?
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See other post above. He is perceived as being an intellectual, charismatic, diplomat essentially. Basically everything that Bush isn't. That is normally actually a tough sell due to the president needing to be "tough and bold" but I think Bush has changed the usual equation. That is proving to be the formula of early success imo. Whether that changes or whether he is actually the true agent of that sort of change are separate debates.
 
Stoney Mason said:
See other post above. He is perceived as being an intellectual, charismatic, diplomat essentially. Basically everything that Bush isn't. That is normally actually a tough sell due to the president needing to be "tough and bold" but I think Bush has changed the usual equation. That is proving to be the formula of early success imo. Whether that changes or whether he is actually the true agent of that sort of change are separate debates.
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So it's 2008's version of "Who would you rather have a beer with?"
 
Tobor said:
Won't Huckabee be preaching to the choir in SC? Literally in this case?
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He has no organization there at all though. It will still be uphill if he doesn't keep the momentum going. if he gets second in NH his momentum will remain and he will win SC.
 
TheKingsCrown said:
The whole white vs. black thing is ridiculous to me. I still don't get why people don't understand that the whites who voted for Obama are clearly democrat/independent leaning.
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Well of course they are democrat/independent leaning . . . it was a Democratic primiary! :lol

The white/black thing is that all those people could have voted Hillary or Edwards (or other white guys) but they picked Obama.
 
APF said:
Exactly. Wasn't the big problem with Hillary her "negatives?" When people say they don't want to repeat 2004, but then choose the insubstantial "nice guy" over the divisive leader and the angry populist, there's some pretty heavy self-delusion going on.
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A.) Obama is not Kerry by a long shot.
B.) Edwards is a nice guy too.
C.) America doesn't like angry women unless they're comedians, or under 20, or fuckable, or bi. Hillary is none of these things.
D.) Welcome to the thread.
 
speculawyer said:
Well of course they are democrat/independent leaning . . . it was a Democratic primiary! :lol

The white/black thing is that all those people could have voted Hillary or Edwards (or other white guys) but they picked Obama.
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Yeah, but White democrats are quite a bit different from White Republicans. You need support from across the isle if you are to win a general election, especially with evangelicals out there.
 
speculawyer said:
Well of course they are democrat/independent leaning . . . it was a Democratic primiary! :lol

The white/black thing is that all those people could have voted Hillary or Edwards (or other white guys) but they picked Obama.
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I'm actually shocked at how things turned out. I still have my doubts with America and hopefully I'm wrong. I just can't picture a lot of people voting for Obama once the curtains close behind them and it's time to vote.
 
harSon said:
I'm actually shocked at how things turned out. I still have my doubts with America and hopefully I'm wrong. I just can't picture a lot of people voting for Obama once the curtains close behind them and it's time to vote.
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Why not?
 
benjipwns said:
"Change" and "getting past partisan divisions".
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This is exactly what Bush ran on in 2000.

Also, I don't think any of you really know what you're talking about when you talk about "Rove-style" electioneering or whatever. Are you just talking about going negative? Smears? These tactics existed long before Rove.
 
Stoney Mason said:
The only thing I could come up with like I said, is that Bush has so damaged his party, that anybody who people even perceive as not being different enough from him are going to take a hit.
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Go back to what I said last night - Bush has damaged the GOP for a generation. He has up-ended EVERYTHING the GOP/Conservatism has was supposed to stand for.

The one really good thing I envision for the DEMs with an Obama candidacy over a Hillary candidacy is indie voter turnout and its effects on the Congressional races. While she would still probably win, I believe she would seriously hurt the chances of unseating many of the GOP incumbants.
 
APF said:
This is exactly what Bush ran on in 2000.

Also, I don't think any of you really know what you're talking about when you talk about "Rove-style" electioneering or whatever. Are you just talking about going negative? Smears? These tactics existed long before Rove.
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I don't know what others are talking about, but I am talking about a manipulation of the electorate in very key areas and at very key levels.
 
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