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Iowa 2008 Caucus Thread
- Thread starter ronito
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Kitschkraft
Member
TheKingsCrown said:
A democrat/Independent mix seems about as good as a republican/independent mix.....and I don't really see any other variables.
Of course, Obama just isn't going to be able to reach some people due to his skin color, but he doesn't NEED to reach everyone any damn ways, he needs his party, and the indies, to go his way. To hell with whatever fraction of the republican party is too methed out and busy with fucking their cousins to throw him support...those types of people wouldn't vote for a Dem in the first place, so whats the difference?
What else does this man have to prove? He won in damn IOWA, the state probably hasn't ever had a black McDonalds manager, let alone people willing to throw him support to become POTUS. Not only did he win it, he won it with by 8 points, in the biggest turnout they have had for this. I see no reason at this point to believe that he at least wouldn't carry the same people that say, Hillary would, in fact, evidence right now points to him carrying MORE indies then her polarizing self. Unless you think there will be some great white turnout JUST TO vote down the black candidate, I don't really see why he is any more unelectable then anyone right now. I mean, of course stormfront might get some buses together, but the average american, cynical as I believe some to be, will not be.
Obama has even me, a 20 year old black man that used to tell people that america was simply too racist to vote for a black man in my lifetime, believing that we might have one within the next 2 years. And believe me, if he gets his shot by gaining the democratic nomination, I believe that with the regular dems who would vote strictly based on politics, the blacks that just want to see some people like us living in the white house, and even some whites that just want to prove it once and for all that the worst of americas terrible racial history is in the past (Call it white guilt if you want, I believe them to be different things but some people use that phrase for buzz), that he will indeed be the next POTUS.
At my caucus site, we had 5 delegates to split up. Most of the un-viable candidate supporters split between Clinton and Edwards but predominantly Edwards. Turnout was more than double that of 2004.
Initial support before un-viable supporters went to support the major candidates (total 136 people):
Obama - 66 - 49%
Edwards - 31 - 23%
Clinton - 24 - 18%
Biden - 6 - 5%
Richardson - 5 - 4%
Dodd - 2 - 2%
Kucinich - 2 - 2%
Delegate count (total 5):
Obama - 2
Edwards - 2
Clinton - 1
Final hard count (total 136 people):
Obama - 66 - 49%
Edwards - 44 - 33%
Clinton - 26 - 20%
Even though the final counts state-wide among delegates came out 38/30/30, you can expect that Obama won among individual voters by a significantly higher margin.
I expect a landslide in NH in Obama's favor.
Initial support before un-viable supporters went to support the major candidates (total 136 people):
Obama - 66 - 49%
Edwards - 31 - 23%
Clinton - 24 - 18%
Biden - 6 - 5%
Richardson - 5 - 4%
Dodd - 2 - 2%
Kucinich - 2 - 2%
Delegate count (total 5):
Obama - 2
Edwards - 2
Clinton - 1
Final hard count (total 136 people):
Obama - 66 - 49%
Edwards - 44 - 33%
Clinton - 26 - 20%
Even though the final counts state-wide among delegates came out 38/30/30, you can expect that Obama won among individual voters by a significantly higher margin.
I expect a landslide in NH in Obama's favor.
I think Hillary is gonna continue to slip. Picked a bad time to start losing ground... realistically the top 3 will still be in it for awhile here but I'm just not sure about Hillary's chances.
I really hope Obama wins. I wana stick it to closet racists everywhere who think a black guy can't be president. I mean it won't be long before he gets killed anyways by some right-wing religious/racist group, but man, to have those closet racists-- the ones who won't come out and say they're racist but secretly know they are-- have to sit and choke on the fact that a black guy is just as capable of greatness as a white guy... i'm giddy.
I really hope Obama wins. I wana stick it to closet racists everywhere who think a black guy can't be president. I mean it won't be long before he gets killed anyways by some right-wing religious/racist group, but man, to have those closet racists-- the ones who won't come out and say they're racist but secretly know they are-- have to sit and choke on the fact that a black guy is just as capable of greatness as a white guy... i'm giddy.
speculawyer
Member
harSon said:
You may be right . . . but don't be so sure. There are a fair number of Republicans that have been so completely turned off by the Bush administration that they've turned to Obama as a new fresh change.
I think Obama has a secret weapon in that he has religious cred . . . didn't he do organizing for church groups in Chicago? One of the Mega-church guys let Obama address his congregation.
ElectricBlue187
Member
SephCast said:
It will mean racism isn't apparent among democrats which isn't exactly headline news
speculawyer said:
This wasn't a big part of the primary, but it is interesting. Among "Establishment" Republican frontrunners Guiliani, Romney, McCain, Obama's religious convictions seem like they should be more palatable to the Republican christian base. Then again, Obama does support the brutal murder of millions of unborn babies every year, making him complicit with genocide.
so its hard to say.
speculawyer
Member
That is a terrible reason to select someone as a president. However, as a side effect I have to admit that I also would get an incredible pleasure out of knowing how annoyed some racist jerks would be to have a black president.whytemyke said:
This is a fear I share. However, on the bright side for the Dems, that would probably guarantee a Dem president. Electing the GOP candidate would pretty much be rewarding assassination.whytemyke said:
SephCast said:
I think it has changed in a big way but most of it was with the younger generation. I'm still confident that a strong closet presence of Racism exists with many of our elders. People didn't just toss aside their racist feelings in the 60's because it was later taboo :lol
speculawyer
Member
If he wins the election, he will need a lot more than just Democratic votes.ElectricBlue187 said:
Sir Alemeth
Member
He's a sexy beast.Triumph said:
TheKingsCrown
Banned
He already has it doesn't he? I saw them last nightTobor said:
TheKingsCrown
Banned
As a senator I would assume he already has them.Tobor said:
Tobor said:
As soon as they feel it Necessary. It began in the spring of last year for Obama & Clinton.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18474444/
Stoney Mason
Banned
Sir Alemeth
Member
Because most men won't vote for a men-hatin' feminist like Hillary. Women, however, would vote for Obama cuz he's a sexy beast. So there's the tilt on the scale.tanod said:
DAMMIT!!whytemyke said:
Kitschkraft
Member
speculawyer said:
The racial shit surrounding Obama is soooo much deeper then most of us (Me included) really care to look at.
I don't really know how I would feel about him getting elected. It would definitely be a good sign, and as I said, I would have NEVER thought it possible a few years ago, even so, I don't think his election will be a signal to sound the "Racism is dead" trumpet, at the same time, many blacks (Me included) will definitely need to rethink what we feel the racial situation in the country is. It will be interesting.
What do whites really feel about Obama racially? I find it odd that nowadays, whites are far more likely to claim someone as "Really as much white as black" then blacks are....what does this mean in relation to Obamas white Kansas mother? Would these white Iowans have been willing to vote for someone that didn't look like Obama with East African heritage? Would they have voted for someone that looks like Michael Jordan, a dark black man, whose ancestry lies in the "HIV section" of Africa (Not what I would say, just paraphrasing the middle american view on the subject)? Lots of stuff to look into, most places don't really look into it, but I feel the election is already being shaped a bit by it. I keep hearing about Hillary having all this black support because her husband Bill is just OH SO POPULAR in the black community...I call bullshit on this. I KNOW some blacks who are just a little bit too cynical of Obama being "another high yella/mixed brutha". And the fact that he's not just half white, but half African (Meaning, not an "Organic Black American") is even fueling some content for him even more. His biggest asset towards the black community is actually his beautiful wife and family, as cynical as some of us are of him, the fact that he didn't marry a "light skinned trophy wife" or even worst, GASPS, a white woman, gives him a TON of credibility within the black community. I think the best thing that Obama can do for himself in South Carolina, aside from proving to blacks yet again that he can beat Hillary, is to parade his family around as much as possible. Those daughters of his are GORGEOUS, and I would personally LOVE to see them grow up in the white house (And I don't mean this in some pedo-bear way).
Kitschkraft
Member
Tobor said:
IIRC, Obama got his secret service protection awhile ago, like, months ago, and he got it earlier then anybody else ever got it.
Not too certain, I remember hearing about the story in big media publications some time ago though.
siamesedreamer
Banned
Liara T'Soni said:
Just curious as to what you or Stoney think it does for Affirmative Action?
As far as race goes like some one said all this says is that a majority of democrats aren't as racist as the republicans (majority of deep south). Plus younger people are generally less shealtered and ignorant than their parents/grandparents and it shows.
I say generally because there are closet racists everywhere mainly as a result of the enviroment they grew up in.
I say generally because there are closet racists everywhere mainly as a result of the enviroment they grew up in.
"God's Beard!"
Member
If Clinton loses the nomination, what are the chances of Huckabee reaching across party borders to pick her up as a running-mate? Is something like that even possible? Just some rediculous thought I had.
ConfusingJazz
Member
God's Beard said:
There is a better chance of a leprechaun riding a unicorn knocking on your door and asking if you have seen his lucky charms.
"God's Beard!"
Member
Dice Man said:
oh well
thebishop said:
wait, something like that IS theoretically possible?
"God's Beard!"
Member
Tamanon said:
Hmm... merged into one person, you say...
pops in copy of frankenhooker
Stoney Mason
Banned
siamesedreamer said:
Personally I've never been pro affirmative action (especially in the case of Clarence Thomas
) although I understand the reasons why it existed and perhaps needed to exist for a certain period of time. I've always been in favor of moving it to low income base situations for the most part where it currently exists in the form of race. That doesn't mean I'm not for both social pressure and political pressure or for prosecution in cases where it is clear anti-minority policies are in place or strong good old boy networks that prevent upward mobility. But to answer your question, as far as what it does for Affirmative Action though realistically, probably nothing. I doubt Obama will make any changes to roll it back because it would be a killer politically. Most of this stuff ends up with the Supreme Court anyway so i believe ultimately they will be the ones to decide on this stuff.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Step one a success for Obama. Pretty cool! I'm pulling for him.
But Huckabee, ick
But Huckabee, ick
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