This is not a perfect comparison, because the 3DS was available for a long while before its Western launch in Japan (February 26th, 2011), but it's also true its Western launch was right at the end of the month (March 25th/27th, 2011). However, here's the data
- Nintendo shipped 3.61 millions of 3DS in the Q4 FY2011 (January 1st - March 31st, 2011)
- However, for Q1 FY2012 (April 1st - June 30th, 2011), there were only 710,000 units shipped, and that's what inspired the decision to drastically cut down the console's price. So, yes, again: there was a massive amount of units still on shelves after the launch, something that Nintendo surely wants to avoid.
ahh, yeah that's a but of a weird comparison. nonetheless, I suppose shipping over a million less switches during about the same timespan makes sense.
For actual sell through, 3DS sold Slightly Under 400,000 units during March 2011 in North America. I remember walking into Wal Mart the morning of launch, no one was there, I walked up to the games section, asked for a 3DS, no pre-order needed.
According to Media Create, 3DS sold about 835,933 units by April 3rd 2011.
can't find concrete european sales, but I think it's safe to say they were below the 400k number from North America.
So with a Spring launch, 3DS managed to sell about 1.2 million units at $250 with the worst launch lineup of all time. However, you have to keep in mind that this was coming off the white hot DS, and the handheld market was a lot more healthy in 2011 than it was in 2017.
Yet, they shipped 3.61 million units. 1.2 million units sold means like 66% of 3DS' at the end of fiscal year were sitting on store shelves. 3DS obviously underperformed, as they cut the price soon after.
My expert analysis:
1.2 million units sold is probably around the minimum the Switch will sell, especially if it is priced correctly. Considering how god awful the launch lineup was for 3DS AND how overpriced it was, that 1.2 million number makes up the hardest of hardcore Nintendo fans that will buy everything they put out, day one, no exceptions.
So the 2 million shipped number is probably fine. Worst case scenario, it's a solid amount shipped and not dangerously overshipped like the 3DS in 2011. Best case, they sell out and get to play the "artificial demand" game like they did with the Wii