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Late Night Wars - Conan's last Tonight Show was TONIGHT a long time ago

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Conan he will have a big first day and week. As long as he is as loose and crazy as he can be for at least the first month, he should secure a good audience that should make Fox and their affiliates happy. In the long run, he'll probably be winning the 18-49 demo, and I don't see how that can be a disappointment.
 
VistraNorrez said:
In the long run, he'll probably be winning the 18-49 demo, and I don't see how that can be a disappointment.
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He didn't even do that when he was competing only against Letterman. Now put Leno in there (and you guys really underestimate the appeal of unfunny comedians to the enormous south), and Conan has no chance at all.

So much of this thread is terrible. Let's talk about reality for a change.

NYTimes and Jon Stewart in 1997 and a bunch of others have it right: this late night shit just doesn't even matter anymore. We're trying to talk about shows at a timeslot people weren't even watching a decade ago, and now we've got the Internet and plenty of other things taking our time.
 
The majority of the arguments for Conan being successful going against Letterman and Leno boil down to "I can see Conan pulling a 4.3 on Fox because I like him".

You guys must be awesome in basic every day logic situations.

"Hey man, we have to split this dollar. That's 50 cents each."

"Yeah, 50 cents isn't a lot. I want more money. Maybe we should get a third person in here to split it with us."

"FUCK YES."
 
Not to mention the fact that Fox is on fire, and the fact that he's bound to have a crazy amount of buzz at least kicking off, and he won't have execs on his case to "broaden his scope" and not be himself, and the fact that he in all likeliness won't have a Jay Leno fiasco on his hands. NBC also advertised Leno more than him as the face of NBC.

Not arguing exact ratings but he has every chance to be successful, especially if the young crowd follows him at all.
 
SnakeXs said:
Not to mention the fact that Fox is on fire, and the fact that he's bound to have a crazy amount of buzz at least kicking off, and he won't have execs on his case to "broaden his scope" and not be himself, and the fact that he in all likeliness won't have a Jay Leno fiasco on his hands. NBC also advertised Leno more than him as the face of NBC.

Not arguing exact ratings but he has every chance to be successful, especially if the young crowd follows him at all.
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The young crowd that didn't follow him one hour earlier on the same network. I really want you to think about the shit you're saying.
 
Kano On The Phone said:
The majority of the arguments for Conan being successful going against Letterman and Leno boil down to "I can see Conan pulling a 4.3 on Fox because I like him".

You guys must be awesome in basic every day logic situations.

"Hey man, we have to split this dollar. That's 50 cents each."

"Yeah, 50 cents isn't a lot. I want more money. Maybe we should get a third person in here to split it with us."

"FUCK YES."
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you obviously know nothing about lead ins or the fact that Fox routinely pulls in excess of 5 to 10 million viewers... something NBC is lucky to do on occasion.
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
He didn't even do that when he was competing only against Letterman.
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Kano On The Phone said:
The young crowd that didn't follow him one hour earlier on the same network. I really want you to think about the shit you're saying.
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http://www.thewrap.com/ind-column/ratings-finish-line-conan-pulls-ahead-dave-13413

Conan was in a dead heat with Dave for the 18-49 demographic (beaten when older people are included), and pulled away in the last 2 weeks.

Through the week of Jan. 15, "Tonight" is averaging a 1.1/4 in the demo vs. a 1.0/4 for "Late Show." Until last week, "Tonight" and "Late Show" had been in a dead heat, each averaging a 1.0 rating.
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And finally, a Fox investment in Conan is not to beat Jay/Letterman (though that would be nice for them), but it is to beat Letterman and Jay's successors--or to beat Zombie Leno/Letterman--these guys are 70 when Conan will just be in his mid-fifties.
 
Regardless of whether Conan is going to do well on Fox or not, id guess that him showing up on Fox is pretty much a given. This is a very rare chance for Fox to establish a late night show that will likely not totally burn out. You have a host with experience, an established audience, lots of buzz after this whole fiasco, possible super popular lead-in. Seems to me a shot worth taking. No guts, no glory.
 
Kano On The Phone said:
The young crowd that didn't follow him one hour earlier on the same network. I really want you to think about the shit you're saying.
Click to expand...

All things considered he did fine, and that was with the lead in trash, and putting Leno on at 10. If you think that Conan's Tonight Show was an ideal situation for him and his ratings then I want you to think about the shit you're saying.
 
SnakeXs said:
All things considered he did fine, and that was with the lead in trash, and putting Leno on at 10. If you think that Conan's Tonight Show was an ideal situation for him and his ratings then I want you to think about the shit you're saying.
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No shit, but you're ignoring that if he were to jump in again, even with good Fox lead-ins, he'd be competing with Leno. If he were still only competing with Letterman like he used to, he could only go up at Fox, but a three-way battle doesn't work for Conan's odds. It's not like a lot more people are going to watch TV at 11:30. They're just going to be splitting the current audience more.
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
No shit, but you're ignoring that if he were to jump in again, even with good Fox lead-ins, he'd still be competing with Letterman and the new addition of Leno. If he were still only competing with Letterman like he used to, he could only go up at Fox.
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At a 11:00 time slot, he is technically competing mostly against local news.
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
No shit, but you're ignoring that if he were to jump in again, even with good Fox lead-ins, he'd be competing with Leno. If he were still only competing with Letterman like he used to, he could only go up at Fox, but a three-way battle doesn't work for Conan's odds. It's not like a lot more people are going to watch TV at 11:30. They're just going to be splitting the current audience more.
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Like I said, I'm not arguing particular ratings, and obviously the crowd will be thinned to some degree. I stated clearly that Conan has every chance to be a success. Period. Not that he'll pull Leno+Letterman ratings combined. Plus Leno's show thinned his audience a bit, too. People who stuck with Leno stuck with Leno, and I can't imagine all too many of them followed Leno up with Conan.

numble said:
At a 11:00 time slot, he is technically competing mostly against local news.
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And his buddies at Comedy Central.
 
SnakeXs said:
Like I said, I'm not arguing particular ratings, and obviously the crowd will be thinned to some degree. I stated clearly that Conan has every chance to be a success. Period. Not that he'll pull Leno+Letterman ratings combined. Plus Leno's show thinned his audience a bit, too. People who stuck with Leno stuck with Leno, and I can't imagine all too many of them followed Leno up with Conan.
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It's nice to want things.
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
NYTimes and Jon Stewart in 1997 and a bunch of others have it right: this late night shit just doesn't even matter anymore. We're trying to talk about shows at a timeslot people weren't even watching a decade ago, and now we've got the Internet and plenty of other things taking our time.
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Yeah, I think one of the most commonly cited lines in articles about this how fiasco is that it's remarkable simply for making late night fun and relevant again. Which is pretty true.

That said, after going through all this, it's served as a very pointed reminder of all the things that make late night fun. And part of it is the good skits and the ritualistic familiarity, but I never even thought about the role music has with late night. I doubt I ever would have gotten into MMJ if it wasn't for Conan, for example.

The biggest problem is celebrity interviews usually suck, unless it's someone particularly funny. Stewart avoids this by having a huge portion of good political guests, but Conan definitely isn't going that route.

I'd love a world where Conan would have either a half hour show, or weekly hour show. 5 hours a week of material is guaranteed to have filler. But, it's what he wants, and it's what Fox wants, and I'm sure I'll be giving the format another chance one it happens.
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
The 11pm shows aren't the repeats. Those are the original airings.
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I meant replay them immediately after the first airing (I know that that's not going to happen). It would be nice if Comedy Central returned to replaying them at 1am instead of at 1:30, starting Colbert at 2 is too late for me.
 
Are there strong rumors of Conan going to Fox, or are you guys just assuming this?

If he does go to Fox, what about Seinfeld reruns at 11pm? Fox probably still makes a killing off of running these reruns, could you guys see Fox starting Conan at 11:30 or you think they'd definitely want their 10pm show leading into Conan?
 
So I'm thinking if conan does start at 11pm on Fox, that would be a huge late night advantage imo. He will get a 30 minute head start on other late night shows ( Leno/Letterman ) so people will be less likely to switch over to another show at 11:35
 
perfectchaos007 said:
So I'm thinking if conan does start at 11pm on Fox, that would be a huge late night advantage imo. He will get a 30 minute head start on other late night shows ( Leno/Letterman ) so people will be less likely to switch over to another show at 11:35
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Or possibly more likely to switch over at 11:35...

Sometimes I'd watch Conan up until the first guest (so the monologue and 'bit' after the first break was done), then switch over to something else at midnight while I waited for Ferguson to start at 12:30.

I guess it depends on how good his first guest is, really. :)
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
He didn't even do that when he was competing only against Letterman. Now put Leno in there (and you guys really underestimate the appeal of unfunny comedians to the enormous south), and Conan has no chance at all.

So much of this thread is terrible. Let's talk about reality for a change.

NYTimes and Jon Stewart in 1997 and a bunch of others have it right: this late night shit just doesn't even matter anymore. We're trying to talk about shows at a timeslot people weren't even watching a decade ago, and now we've got the Internet and plenty of other things taking our time.
Click to expand...

He either tied or beat Letterman in the 18-49 demo. That is a fact. And I said in the long run. Letterman and Leno have 5 years at most in their spots. Whoever replaces either of them won't compete with O'Brien. Leno's ratings have been going down year to year for the past 3 years, by the way, and while I'm sure most of his audience will be back initially I don't see that trend changing.

Conan will be fine on Fox, and I don't see any reason to think otherwise.
 
Gruco said:
And part of it is the good skits and the ritualistic familiarity, but I never even thought about the role music has with late night. I doubt I ever would have gotten into MMJ if it wasn't for Conan, for example.
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Mix Master Jay?
 
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
He didn't even do that when he was competing only against Letterman. Now put Leno in there (and you guys really underestimate the appeal of unfunny comedians to the enormous south), and Conan has no chance at all.

So much of this thread is terrible. Let's talk about reality for a change.

NYTimes and Jon Stewart in 1997 and a bunch of others have it right: this late night shit just doesn't even matter anymore. We're trying to talk about shows at a timeslot people weren't even watching a decade ago, and now we've got the Internet and plenty of other things taking our time.
Click to expand...
I think the argument being offered in favor of Conan on Fox (at least among most realistic fans) concedes that he's not going to win any ratings wars. I agree with you on that. But again, where I differ is in thinking that I don't think it's inconceivable that he can mount a respectable enough showing for his show to justify staying on the air. Might it go down in flames? Sure. But I don't think the bar has to be set in terms of "he needs to be number one or it's a huge bust," which is what you seem to be continuously arguing.

The argument I've had for it is that it's a long term gamble -- should it happen -- for both Fox and Conan. One that everyone (save the most delusional members of Team CoCo) should concede will lead to disheartening Nielsen breakdowns. However, he just needs to beat the (hopefully conservative) projections, and continue to produce good material and build an audience. Furthermore, his competition can't do this forever. Last I checked, neither Leno nor Letterman have found the fabled Fountain of Youth.

So, in closing, yes, you are right; Conan will not beat Letterman and Leno. But nobody involved in making this deal should believe that to be a possibility.
 
And as it's been posted a few times and yet still overlooked, Fox picking up Conan for Late Night is not a quick fix, rather it would be for long-term success over the other networks. Everyone face the facts: Letterman and Leno are basically done within the next 5-10 years. Their ratings will most likely dwindle, as will their viewer base.

Fox, if and when they pick Conan up, is just moving for a preemptive upper-hand in the Late Night wars in the future; aka, the future after Leno/Letterman.
 
I think the idea of a "king of latenight" will probably die with Leno's real retirement, so if what Fox is looking for is setting Conan up for that role I don't think they'll succeed. This isn't 1992 anymore; there are plenty of up and comers in the late night field who also have another 10 years to build up audiences. What'll happen when Leno and Letterman are out will much more likely be a diaspora than a rote follow to whatever the next big show is. This flattening out of the audience is already occuring.

Never mind what new people will pop out of the woodwork in the next 10 years.
 
maharg said:
I think the idea of a "king of latenight" will probably die with Leno's real retirement, so if what Fox is looking for is setting Conan up for that role I don't think they'll succeed. This isn't 1992 anymore; there are plenty of up and comers in the late night field who also have another 10 years to build up audiences. What'll happen when Leno and Letterman are out will much more likely be a diaspora than a rote follow to whatever the next big show is. This flattening out of the audience is already occuring.

Never mind what new people will pop out of the woodwork in the next 10 years.
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Well, sure. But I think I'm just arguing that it's possible for Conan to have a successful show elsewhere, so long as you barrier to being considered a success isn't "you have to be #1 in the ratings. That very, very likely won't happen as long as Jay and Letterman are still on the air. However, that won't be forever. Mind you, that doesn't necessarily mean that Conan will automatically be "King of Late Night," but it also isn't impossible that he would be set up to be the most respected and longest running late night talk show host, even if it doesn't carry with it the glory it once did. His show CAN be a long term success, though there's certainly no guarantee of that.
 
Sure. Kimmel's proven well enough that you can have a successful late night talk show without going anywhere near #1 (much to some people's chagrin, though I don't know why -- if you think the last two weeks of Conan were crazy, you should see Kimmel's first two weeks).

But he also proves that it's not all about how many years you've been on the air anymore.
 
DrEvil said:
Or possibly more likely to switch over at 11:35...

Sometimes I'd watch Conan up until the first guest (so the monologue and 'bit' after the first break was done), then switch over to something else at midnight while I waited for Ferguson to start at 12:30.

I guess it depends on how good his first guest is, really. :)
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Yeah, I watched his show every day, but only up to before the first guest came out, because I wanted to go to sleep.
 
No, but 20 years ago he'd have lasted a few weeks at best. I'm using him as a sign of the changing nature of late night tv, and I don't see that trend reversing.
 
DrEvil said:
For anyone who wants it...

There's a site out there called TVTunes that has themesongs to pretty much every TV show ever.


They have Conan's Late show (but the Tonight show version that they used for 7 months) theme with direct audio w/o Andy or the crowd.

http://www.televisiontunes.com/Tonight_Show_-_Conan_O_Brien.html



They also have a rip of the end of the show song from the 2nd last ep:

http://www.televisiontunes.com/Tonight_Show_-_Conan_O_Brien_-_The_End_of_the_Show_Song.html
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Awesome!
 
BrandNew said:
I hate this, it keeps getting said and posted. A lot of people our age:

a) watch him the next day through hulu/dvr
b) could be watching him but don't have a way for neilsen to track it
c) straight up don't watch as much late night television as our parents
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a) Doesn't really help for advertiser ratings since most DVR people skip commercials.

b) Doesn't explain why Conan's Tonight Show lost to Leno's Tonight Show and to Colbert in the younger demographic. Or why Adult Swim and Sportscenter were able to attract nearly as many viewers.

c) This is discussed in the article.
 
tokkun said:
b) Doesn't explain why Conan's Tonight Show lost to Leno's Tonight Show and to Colbert in the younger demographic. Or why Adult Swim and Sportscenter were able to attract nearly as many viewers.
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According to that article, Conan lost 43,000 compared to Jay Leno's old Tonight Show and 35,000 to Colbert. Is that even 1/10th of a Nielsen point?

And Adult Swim and Sports Center had "nearly as many viewers" as Conan with over 100,000 less viewers? If being behind by 100k or 105k is "close" to Conan's numbers, Conan was very "close" to Jay and Colbert by being less than 45k behind.
 
Conan show to replace Jay Leno Show?

Conan O'Brien is getting "Justice" at NBC.

Days after the network severed ties with the former host of "The Tonight Show," it picked up a pilot from his Conaco production company.

"Justice" follows a Supreme Court judge who quits to start his own legal practice. It was written by John Eisendrath; O'Brien will serve as an executive producer.

As part of O'Brien's $33 million settlement with NBC, his NBC-based company was to continue to operate at NBC Universal through the end of the development season.

The pickup for "Justice," whose script had been one of the most buzzed about at NBC in the past couple of weeks, marks the third legal drama/dramedy pilot on the network's slate for next season, along with "Rex Is Not Your Lawyer" and David E. Kelley's "Kindred."
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http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/01/26/arts/entertainment-us-conan.html
 
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