What you're missing when it comes to Black Ops and Halo: Reach is that the target market likely already owns a 360, just like Black Ops' target market already owns a Wii (or isn't buying one). The sales for Modern Warfare 2 were so massive that I think almost anyone who was interested in it would have a 360 by now, and Halo Reach is in a similar situation with Halo 3. I don't know the kinds of bumps that CoD put up in the past for something like WaW, but that's probably a good comparison here (if anyone does know off the top of their head, I'd really appreciate it). They will sell well, of course, i just doubt their hardware-selling power in this situation. The other titles you mentioned are also sequels in an already massive genre, so I expect the same kind of increase (but less), though they all might amaze me. Honestly, it will be hard to tell because of the massive increases associated with the holidays, so we might have to agree to disagree there.
With Mickey, DK, and Kirby, I see it differently (I don't think Metroid will do anything for hardware, and it might be lucky to break a million because of how much it's divided its own audience, as you mentioned). As long as Mickey doesn't have many issues, like bad game mechanics or something that would give it bad word of mouth, then I think it'll be massive. Mickey's already one of the biggest brand names, and when you pair that with the amount of respect Spector gets from the core, that pretty much spells success, as long as there's a marketing campaign (which there should be).
After Mickey, I'm not sure whether Kirby or DK will do better overall, but I think they'll both break 2 million. I know people will call me out for that kind of a prediction for Kirby, but Superstar Ultra sold extremely well for a port from an SNES game, and I think that suggests that at least Japan wants a new entry that's somewhat similar in quality and mechanics to the traditional ones. Even Kirby: Squeak Squad sold somewhere around 2 million worldwide, and many thought it was mediocre. Note: Kirby isn't the type of game that needs portability, so I don't think pointing out the portable vs. console sales argument is worthwhile here. Kirby is also the kind of game that provides easy fun and works with children, which will help Epic Yarn's cause, especially since parents can play co-op with their kids. The rich visual style might even give it more attention than the usual Kirby games in the West, and E3 showed signs pointing toward that idea (when was the last time a Kirby game won...anything?). Good Feel is also a decent developer, so I expect the game mechanics to work out well (a little less faith in them than Spector).
DK is a stronger brand for the West, so it has a larger potential audience, but it's Rare's first platformer, so it's kind of a toss up on the level of success (it'll be over a million, but after that, I'm not sure). DKC is a strong franchise that used to (at least somewhat) rival Sonic and Mario, so it needs to be as good as or better than NSMB Wii to do excellent (I could say Sonic 4, but I don't think that will be difficult). How well it does will really depend on how accessible it is and how it compares to the older DKC games. NSMB Wii partially did excellent because some people thought that it was better than SMW, for instance, and competing with the past is very important when a main strategy is to try to get people to get a game based on their previous enjoyment of the series (otherwise some will stay satisfied with the classics). If Rare can make the game rich in content and inviting/accessible for new players, it could do very well. I definitely don't think it will top the original DKC at 8 million unless it's by the best in the series and advertised well, etc., but it definitely has a chance to top DKC3 at 3 million or so. All of these series have not been on the Wii before this release, so I see them causing fans of the series to buy a Wii. Platformers are an established genre for the Wii, and these are all relatively high-profile, so they shouldn't have the same problems as some other, more niche games. The 15 million people who bought NSMB Wii didn't disappear, and I think some of them will be attracted to these platformers because of its example.
I also don't think this will help the Wii's third party relations with anyone but Disney and maybe Sega, however, because few third parties care about or can make platformers.
Nintendo's real problem from what we know is next year. DQX will be huge for Japan's hardware, but America/Europe only have Zelda and Pikmin 3, and hopefully Last Story and Xenoblade. I like Pikmin, but it is even more B-tier than Kirby and DK, so I don't think it will have much of a hardware effect at all. Xenoblade and Last Story are more like C-tier in the West sales-wise, so that's pretty much the same deal. The Wii won't be as successful next year if Zelda is the only game able to carry the Wii to sell well...Even though I'm optimistic about Nintendo's prospects for this holiday, even I can't see them going much past next year without a hardware announcement. They've basically used all of their franchises or are using them for the 3DS, except for F-Zero, and follow-up games like SMG2 just aren't going to help them as much as they would like. Nintendo themselves said that when they ran out of ideas, they would move on, and, at least from the outside, it looks like the Wii's potential for new ideas from Nintendo will be mostly over by the time they release Zelda. As I said before, though, I'm ready to be amazed if companies/games do the unexpected, and I'm ready to be corrected if I'm factually wrong on something (it is 3 AM here).
Basically what Skiesofwonder said...
