StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Pacing about +13% vs yesterday. Still on track for about 12k or so.
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Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)
Conflict NZ
Member
Whelp, looks like Bungie is all in on Marathon based on Schreier's latest story that Destiny 3 is not in active production and they are about to lay a massive chunk of people off.
My guess is that if it isn't doing better by the end of Season 3 that will be the end of Bungie.
My guess is that if it isn't doing better by the end of Season 3 that will be the end of Bungie.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Hey Hey! Right on target. Off by 54 people. Looks like Steamdb now adds a small note saying if the number is a 24 hour peak! Never saw it before.
The game is still around 12k at 10:55 pm. So you never know, it might edge up. But I'm doing the recap now as I'm heading to bed!
Peaked at 12.1k. Cryo rebound from yesterday
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 12.1k is -76.2k or -86%
Today vs yesterday: 12.1k vs 10.8k (+1.3k or +12%)
Yesterday's low 3.3k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 3.7k
Thu vs Thu: 12.1k vs 13k (-0.9k or -7%). Trending lately is about -5 to -15% since early May
Ratio method to estimate peaks and valleys
Mon-Thur 3.3:1. For example, a peak of 12k will have a low of 3.6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1
Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users: 163
Global Top Sellers: 212
Weekly Top Sellers: Unknown. Not on top 100
Top Rated Games: 6,197 (83.65%)
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Conflict NZ
Member
With all the updates they have made in the last month, along with the current double XP and guaranteed keys, the game is only tracking ~1500 ahead of predictions made in April. All of that work and effort to retain 5-15K DAU. I can't believe Sony doubled down on this.
cormack12
Gold Member
Would be interesting to see the projected costs of just running the game on a monthly basis
PeteBull
Gold Member
I have my conspriracy theory that one of bungies top devs is some baddie who can do supreme premium version of "gluck gluck 9000" to hermen and thx to that he does all her biddingSony betting on the wrong horse despite the data right in front of them. Amazingly, D2 since late March is slightly trending up. Sony doesnt even need to spend money on any sales analysts. Just skim this board, purple board or any other site doing the data work for them.
Also, on console there's way more D2 console split than Marathon heavier on PC. So there's going to be a lot more D2 gamers in total still playing. They'd do better if they just milked D2 with some more big DLC packs, while working on D3 (which they should be though it sounds like they arent).
Top Steam sellers list. D2 way ahead in ranking.
Alternative theory- that hot female could be decepticon and hermen either didnt realise or did actually realise and enjoys it even more
Conflict NZ
Member
They allegedly have 400 developers working on Marathon. Their average salary is $100K. That's a minimum of $770K per week without including any staff overhead, server costs, building costs etc. If you trust Redbullcola on Resetera they are selling less than 7,000 copies a week which is less than $200K after platform cuts. Based on the steam position they are selling next to nothing in terms of Microtransactions.
It's likely they are currently burning more than half a million a week to keep development going on it.
Negotiator101
Member
You're mad if you think Marathon has 2 years left
it won't see out the year. To put it in perspective Destiny 2 is doing similar numbers to Marathon on Steam and they're shutting it down, in 4 months Marathon will be doing half the numbers it's doing now, it's simply not sustainable as a matter of fact.Moridianae
Member
It'll get a boost from Season 2, but it won't really hold it.
Might get 3 seasons before they maintenance mode it, but outside of a MASSIVE revamp that gives a bunch of PvE content(loss-free looter shooter campaign or just meatier stuff) and some kind of basic PvP modes you aren't getting a big part of the Destiny crowd.
Ain't gonna happen. All-in the only option they have and this decision(about Destiny 2) was absolutely Sony doing what they were always going to do(and may still do more).
We all knew that conference thing where they spoke of Bungie was PR speak.
Might get 3 seasons before they maintenance mode it, but outside of a MASSIVE revamp that gives a bunch of PvE content(loss-free looter shooter campaign or just meatier stuff) and some kind of basic PvP modes you aren't getting a big part of the Destiny crowd.
Ain't gonna happen. All-in the only option they have and this decision(about Destiny 2) was absolutely Sony doing what they were always going to do(and may still do more).
We all knew that conference thing where they spoke of Bungie was PR speak.
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Plague Doctor
Member
Have you guys been noticing how the rating is dropping almost daily now?
It's ramping up though. .3 in less than a day.
Are we getting close to the "Mostly Positive" Zone at 79? But everyone who plays it, loves it, we were told.
It's ramping up though. .3 in less than a day.
Are we getting close to the "Mostly Positive" Zone at 79? But everyone who plays it, loves it, we were told.
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Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Marathon can (and likely will) do everything you suggest here. Sci fi Extraction is all encompassing.
Cumulus
Member
Schreier already hinted at a big round of layoffs at Bungie.
Guess we`re at that point now where the harsh reality of numbers can`t be "Social Media PR-Bullshit-Posted" away anymore.
Remember the Highguard Dev`s "we`re fine with a low userbase" comments and what followed soon after?
Marathon has max 1-2 more seasons to drastically turn things around before going straight to maintenance "skeleton-crew" mode.
Guess we`re at that point now where the harsh reality of numbers can`t be "Social Media PR-Bullshit-Posted" away anymore.
Remember the Highguard Dev`s "we`re fine with a low userbase" comments and what followed soon after?
Marathon has max 1-2 more seasons to drastically turn things around before going straight to maintenance "skeleton-crew" mode.
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But they increased headcount on Marathon from 300 to 400 just recently apparently (said during the financial results I think) so one doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the other.
Cumulus
Member
Certainly for the experiments with PvE mode and the other stuff they`ve mentioned. But if that doesn`t turn things around, and fast...
Sohurmk833
Member
That'll just kill Marathon faster. They're not making even a fraction of the money to keep 400 devs paid.
Zacfoldor
Gold Member
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Plague Doctor
Member
Unironically, this has been a blast.
Funny ass memes. Good discussion on the topic of GaaS trends as a whole. Drama when people get pissed and crash the fuck out. This has dovetailed into larger news like the fall of Bungie as a studio and more than likely layoffs.
Watchers geniunely derive entertainment from a game they would have never found fun to play.
And it cost zero dollars. It was always Free to Play.
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mdkirby
Gold Member
I had grok run the numbers on this a while ago (take it or leave it). But it had them at about $6.7 mil monthly for 400 staff. This was extrapolated from glass door/levels, showing a median comp of around $110-187k per year, but that's not what an employee costs a business, benefits, facilities, taxes etc add another 30-50%. So it ended up with each employee costing $14,000-$20,000 per months.
It then backed it further from analysis of bungies operating costs of around 1000 staff, which describe the yearly burn rate of about 200mil total. Which scales to about 80mil annually for 400 staff.
So yeah, low end has them at 5-6mil monthly, high end 8 mil/month....it's a massive money black hole given how poorly it seems to be selling.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Some people play the games they like.
Other people complain about the games they don't.
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rm082e
Gold Member
Eh, it seems more like we've not had the tools in the past to micro-analyze a game's performance over time. Now that we do, Marathon is a really interesting case study. It didn't just die a quick death like Concord and Highguard, but it's clearly not successful like Arc Raiders. That makes the eb and flow more interesting.
Guilty_AI
Gold Member
And true chad gamers do both
Rocco Schiavone
Member
Some people waste their time on forums defending their favourite games instead of playing them.
If I were you, I'd spend more time playing this "great" game. Judging by the player numbers, time seems to be running out for you.
Guilty_AI
Gold Member
He stopped playing it btw
{insert code here}
Member
Has a game ever rebounded from 10k CCU up to 80-100k?
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
You think the thread shows a lot of "micro analyzing", or is it more like a chant?
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Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
It topped out at 60k. It also took them 6.5 years to get there. After it hit that it immediately cut in half.The Extraction Shooter Hunt Showdown (below) did it.
It's full release in 2019 (Rel) shows it topped at 13k. Then it dropped to 6k. Lost a little more than half. Marathon has lost almost 90%.
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rm082e
Gold Member
Hunt is made by Crytec, which is an independent company. Bungie is not independent - they have shareholders who demand value be delivered. Sony isn't going to wait around for years to go from 10k to 100k CCU. You know this.
Hari Seldon
Member
Honestly who in there right mind would think that a dogshit tier studio like Bungie is competent enough to rebound this game. Sure if this was a Blizzard game or a small team of hungry developers they would have a shot. But this is a massive studio led by complete retards that is about to have significant layoffs which will completely ruin morale. They have zero chance.
duhmetree
Member
If I were Sony... My take would be....
Infusing Destiny type of PvE loop into Marathon. Marathon will not be the same game in a year. Much more depth will be added to build a much larger player base.
All hands on deck. New shells, maps, events, end-game content, loot every season or so. The Bungie gameplay, mostly everyone loves, is there in Marathon. It has a strong engagement loop already... too hardcore though, a casual approach needs to be added and made available.
Patrol, Strikes, Dungeons, Raids etc... 'Destiny gameplay loop' brought into the Marathon world.... Solo gameplay will also be fleshed out. Hopefully that's where the attention and work force is moving to.
IMO Marathon has massive potential but it can't just stay as a hardcore punishing PvP extract shooter- and that's where I see them pivoting. That aspect will still be there but it will be much more than just that. Destiny PvE loop along with Division Dark Zone/current Marathon gameplay.
Infusing Destiny type of PvE loop into Marathon. Marathon will not be the same game in a year. Much more depth will be added to build a much larger player base.
All hands on deck. New shells, maps, events, end-game content, loot every season or so. The Bungie gameplay, mostly everyone loves, is there in Marathon. It has a strong engagement loop already... too hardcore though, a casual approach needs to be added and made available.
Patrol, Strikes, Dungeons, Raids etc... 'Destiny gameplay loop' brought into the Marathon world.... Solo gameplay will also be fleshed out. Hopefully that's where the attention and work force is moving to.
IMO Marathon has massive potential but it can't just stay as a hardcore punishing PvP extract shooter- and that's where I see them pivoting. That aspect will still be there but it will be much more than just that. Destiny PvE loop along with Division Dark Zone/current Marathon gameplay.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Sony.
Going by the roadmap PR, Marathon is getting support till Season 5 when "everything comes together". Assuming seasons are all 3 months long, Season 5 takes the game another year till spring 2027!
Yet a studio like BP with about 80 people got canned because whatever GAAS project they were forced to pitch to management was junk so to save money they shut them down.
But Bungie somehow continues at $3.6B buy out, big losses, two impairment charges totaling $750M, two waves of layoffs already (soon to be third as per Jason S), D2 sunsetting, and Marathon which barely breaks over 10k CCU on Steam with a fraction of gamers on console.
If costs are so important, Sony couldnt even pick the right game to support going forward.
D2
Marathon
duhmetree
Member
I think it was logical to kill D2 as it had hit a wall after Final Shape. The Final Shape should have been the end. No vision, direction or anything to pull players back in. Doesn't help that the current Destiny Game Director absolutely sucked. D3 will most definitely be a thing. Needs a vision and something that could replace/rival the Light-Dark saga... a story that can last as long as the Light/Dark... Maybe they just drop the number and call it Destiny. It's a cash cow. I know Sony overpaid and lost money... The Destiny IP still has so much more potential and a lot of money to be made.Sony.
Going by the roadmap PR, Marathon is getting support till Season 5 when "everything comes together". Assuming seasons are all 3 months long, Season 5 takes the game another year till spring 2027!
Yet a studio like BP with about 80 people got canned because whatever GAAS project they were forced to pitch to management was junk so to save money they shut them down.
But Bungie somehow continues at $3.6B buy out, big losses, two impairment charges totaling $750M, two waves of layoffs already (soon to be third as per Jason S), D2 sunsetting, and Marathon which barely breaks over 10k CCU on Steam with a fraction of gamers on console.
If costs are so important, Sony couldnt even pick the right game to support going forward.
D2
Marathon
Marathon will be the stop-gap until the next iteration of Destiny... They will 'Destiny-fy' Marathon in the interim imo. That's the most logical direction.
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Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
As if going from 2.3k to 60k isn't relevant to Marathon. You behave yourself.It topped out at 60k. It also took them 6.5 years to get there. After it hit that it immediately cut in half.
It's full release in 2019 (Rel) shows it topped at 13k. Then it dropped to 6k. Lost a little more than half. Marathon has lost almost 90%.
Sony is pretty clearly going to give them a year to right the ship. We'll see how much the CCU is improved by then.
Darchaos
Gold Member
But it has a boring dead world, boring story and no npc with even an inch of personality, no social-space etc etc everything that made Destiny. All this is also important and they wont have the time and or money for it and people just dont care about the game more than to watch it die. They are done, they fucked up everything they had.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Marathon top sellers 252nd.
- Hunt 1896 higher
- Dwarf Eats Mountain and Super Bunny Man higher
A couple big achievements though
- Marathon is making more money than 2015's Black Ops 3
- Good news, Marathon took over Video Store Simulator with its 1500 CCU. Days ago, Marathon ranked below it
- Hunt 1896 higher
- Dwarf Eats Mountain and Super Bunny Man higher
A couple big achievements though
- Marathon is making more money than 2015's Black Ops 3
- Good news, Marathon took over Video Store Simulator with its 1500 CCU. Days ago, Marathon ranked below it
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People in the past would have the same fun as us today if they had the same tools. Imagine people having fun with the CCU of Daikatana.
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
Destiny 2 is #101. Why they didn't immediately pivot into Destiny 3 or Destiny 1 remake years ago is a mystery. Given the meager content of Marathon, my theory is that they realized they couldn't produce a project of that scope with all the dei corporate welfare babies they call employees, so they tried to make something simple and addictive like crack cocaine for Fortnite kids and it didn't work so now they are dead meat.Marathon top sellers 252nd.
- Hunt 1896 higher
- Dwarf Eats Mountain and Super Bunny Man higher
A couple big achievements though
- Marathon is making more money than 2015's Black Ops 3
- Good news, Marathon took over Video Store Simulator with its 1500 CCU. Days ago, Marathon ranked below it
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
Game is ugly as fuck, not cool, looks gay, has fetish weirdos... That all may work if the game wasn't those things above.
PeteBull
Gold Member
I think (and i said it before, dont remember if in this particular topicSony.
Going by the roadmap PR, Marathon is getting support till Season 5 when "everything comes together". Assuming seasons are all 3 months long, Season 5 takes the game another year till spring 2027!
Yet a studio like BP with about 80 people got canned because whatever GAAS project they were forced to pitch to management was junk so to save money they shut them down.
But Bungie somehow continues at $3.6B buy out, big losses, two impairment charges totaling $750M, two waves of layoffs already (soon to be third as per Jason S), D2 sunsetting, and Marathon which barely breaks over 10k CCU on Steam with a fraction of gamers on console.
If costs are so important, Sony couldnt even pick the right game to support going forward.
D2
Marathon
) its same phenomenon that happens in some big sports clubs/teams, on one side they can easily bench or get rid off rookie at first or second mistake coz he was cheap and no big hopes are associated with him, on the other hand if they buy/exchange for some wellknown superstar who starts not only underperfoming but playing like literal shit, they have way more difficulties benching/selling him coz they dont wanna admit to making that huge mistake of overpaying for the guy in the first place, hence he is getting many unjust chances.
Hollywood Hitman
Gold Member
Look at that fucking asshole, it angers me just to see these shitty characters
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