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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)

Zacfoldor said:
Apparently the Marathon crew has a twitter mob or something.
Click to expand...

It's true.

They are a vicious gang of street thugs..

kinda like this

o37RqXUGb6IsmwE4.gif


Except not nearly as masculine.
 
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Just captured Monday, though it's UTC based so obviously doesn't include tonight's North American data.
Comparison shows a serious drop. Below a 10 CCU average now and a big drop in total player hours. Just where is the hard resistance point for this game?

Code: 
| Date UTC       | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range      | DAU midpoint |
| Mon 2026-04-27 | 24.0       | 10,823  | 17,349   | 259,755      | 86,585-207,804 | 129,878      |
| Mon 2026-05-04 | 24.0       |  8,578  | 13,837   | 205,863      | 68,621-164,690 | 102,932      |
 
falconhoof said:
Just captured Monday, though it's UTC based so obviously doesn't include tonight's North American data.
Comparison shows a serious drop. Below a 10 CCU average now and a big drop in total player hours. Just where is the hard resistance point for this game?

Code: 
| Date UTC       | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range      | DAU midpoint |
| Mon 2026-04-27 | 24.0       | 10,823  | 17,349   | 259,755      | 86,585-207,804 | 129,878      |
| Mon 2026-05-04 | 24.0       |  8,578  | 13,837   | 205,863      | 68,621-164,690 | 102,932      |
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Don't think it has one yet. The myriad of issues like matchmaking, once-a-week reason to even login for the same ol' song and dance, casuals having a hard time geting engaged, etc.

It all causes a perpetual downward cycle that is very hard to stop.
 
Moridianae said:
Don't think it has one yet. The myriad of issues like matchmaking, once-a-week reason to even login for the same ol' song and dance, casuals having a hard time geting engaged, etc.

It all causes a perpetual downward cycle that is very hard to stop.
Click to expand...
This issue at this point is that once CCU got below 10K during peak OCE gaming hours matchmaking become atrocious and now US is approaching that. Even if there was some floor of say, 9K CCU that would never leave if Marathon kept working, that floor will disappear if it doesn't work as matchmaking issues arise.

Unless they get a mode in that is somehow not affected by matchmaking (ie solo with bots) I don't think there will be a floor as the decreasing player count degrades the experience.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
First time under 15k. Tomorrow will be in the 13s with possibility it goes to the high 12s.
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StreetsofBeige said:
Ballpark tracking to 13.5k tonight.
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10 pm completed hour CCU. As expected in the 13s squeaking above 13k after all. Low set at 13.2k as it's trending down
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 13.2k is -75.1k or -85%

Today vs yesterday: 13.2k vs 14.5k (-1.3k or -9%)

Yesterday's low 4.2k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 3.8k

Mon vs Mon: 13.2k vs 16.6k (-3.4k or -20%). Back to old historic changes of -20%

Alternate method to estimate peaks and valleys (ballpark ratios)
On normal weekdays, 3.3:1. For example, a peak 20k will have a low of 6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users 135
Global Top Sellers 224
Weekly Top Sellers 74 ending Apr 28 (was 81 last week)
Top Rated Games 6,061 (83.84%)
 
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As for tomorrow, Tuesday's are among the best and most consistent days for the game. Aside from the big patch day +16%, all other Tuesdays are +/- a handful of %. Sometimes a small gain vs Monday. Sometimes it goes down.

It's clear gamers want to give a chance to whatever gameplay tweaks they do from maintenance morning. Today peaked at 13.2k. So it's a toss up if it drops below 13k. Might likely hold roughly the same as today. But no doubt Weds should be in the 12s if it doesnt happen tomorrow. If tomorrow and Weds are both down days (very possible as that has happened 5 times), Weds could be in the 11s.
 
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Are they doing a patch every Tuesday to tweak the gameplay?
They really must be throwing shit at the wall hoping something sticks. And at the rate that it is declining, I guess you can't blame them.
They're probably at the "what do we have to lose" stage of desperation.

Most games that do PvP, might do an emergency patch if something is obviously broken, but tend to patch at most monthly or more likely seasonally.
 
I was surprised to find out that 70-80% of players came from Destiny 2.
I mean obviously Bungie fans will make up a big chunk of the player base, but if the percentage is that high then adding new content for both games at the same time is a dumbass move by Bungie.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
As for tomorrow, Tuesday's are among the best and most consistent days for the game. Aside from the big patch day +16%, all other Tuesdays are +/- a handful of %. Sometimes a small gain vs Monday. Sometimes it goes down.

It's clear gamers want to give a chance to whatever gameplay tweaks they do from maintenance morning. Today peaked at 13.2k. So it's a toss up if it drops below 13k. Might likely hold roughly the same as today. But no doubt Weds should be in the 12s if it doesnt happen tomorrow. If tomorrow and Weds are both down days (very possible as that has happened 5 times), Weds could be in the 11s.
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Prediction for 10 based on the current fall rate?
 
I love how nonchalant bungie is acting talking about oh we have years worth of content lol it just rubs me the wrong way, they're so delusional like it's what makes seeing it go down even more enjoyable.

Nobody can tell me bungie handled destiny and marathon in the correct way, there absolutely was a lane that was more responsible to take in keeping destiny at the top and build marathon as well.
 
Hollywood Hitman said:
I love how nonchalant bungie is acting talking about oh we have years worth of content lol it just rubs me the wrong way, they're so delusional like it's what makes seeing it go down even more enjoyable.

Nobody can tell me bungie handled destiny and marathon in the correct way, there absolutely was a lane that was more responsible to take in keeping destiny at the top and build marathon as well.
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Publicly they couldn't say anything else, behind closed doors? I imagine we'll hear about that sometime after this gets shuttered.
 
It occurs, if it gets as low as say 5k, and people literally can't play any more as they can't find matched, like 2 months into the game. What does Sony do? Like the obvious option is to shut it down…as they are also burning about $8m/month at current staff levels. But people paid like £40 for this game. Shutting it down two months in?…that's like "everyone needs refunding" territory….which is a good $100mil
 
Hollywood Hitman said:
I love how nonchalant bungie is acting talking about oh we have years worth of content lol it just rubs me the wrong way, they're so delusional like it's what makes seeing it go down even more enjoyable.

Nobody can tell me bungie handled destiny and marathon in the correct way, there absolutely was a lane that was more responsible to take in keeping destiny at the top and build marathon as well.
Click to expand...

They can't really say anything else because they know perception matters. No one is going to buy into a dead / dying multiplayer game so they have to stay positive and tell everyone seasons of content are coming. They know they're fucked on this project internally and it's about minimizing losses at this point. Sony has to weigh brand value / damage at this point more than they probably do profitability. It's clearly a financial disaster but do they keep funding the content in the pipeline just to keep up appearances and avoid burning the people who did buy it? Fund it for 6 more months till the end of Season 3 to fulfill the bare minimum commitment then walk away, even if they only have 500-2500 players at that point exclusively in NA during peak windows.

I don't see how this game revives itself without a radical design pivot, which they maybe trying to do if they genuinely assigned 100 more devs to it. Approaching any form of free to play is incredibly risky because it would both piss purchasers off and invite swarms of cheaters into the mix, something Bungie has absolutely failed to deal with at this point. I don't even think the upside of free to play is that big for them either given the meh numbers we saw during the stress test weekend. They peaked at like 150k or so? Interest just isn't there.

Overall they're pretty fucked.
 
mdkirby said:
It occurs, if it gets as low as say 5k, and people literally can't play any more as they can't find matched, like 2 months into the game. What does Sony do? Like the obvious option is to shut it down…as they are also burning about $8m/month at current staff levels. But people paid like £40 for this game. Shutting it down two months in?…that's like "everyone needs refunding" territory….which is a good $100mil
Click to expand...

They are still paying that 8 million a month with or without Marathon. Unless they boot people off the company. So they'll probably keep it going but redirect resources from Marathon to other projects. And maybe a price cut or F2P in the roadmap at some point.
 
Von Hugh said:
They are still paying that 8 million a month with or without Marathon. Unless they boot people off the company. So they'll probably keep it going but redirect resources from Marathon to other projects. And maybe a price cut or F2P in the roadmap at some point.
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They're absolutely gonna have layoffs this year.
 
Well I think what i mean is they should say less, I just think the projection of years worth of content is also more salt on the wound of Destiny fans. But yea I realize they can't say much of anything else just annoys me how these numbers are bad and they're like durrr Huururr we got so much lined up!! 🤡
 
If the game has only 5,000 players, the revenue from microtransactions won't even cover the electricity for the servers, let alone the salaries.

Do they spend $100M over the next year trying to "fix" a game with no audience, or do they take a one-time $20M–$40M refund hit and move the staff to Destiny or a new project?
 
Von Hugh said:
They are still paying that 8 million a month with or without Marathon. Unless they boot people off the company. So they'll probably keep it going but redirect resources from Marathon to other projects. And maybe a price cut or F2P in the roadmap at some point.
Click to expand...
Sure….but there would be a non zero expectation that the whole studio gets shuttered and those costs and the acquisition costs become a $4bn write off on the taxes from their actually profitable ventures…which may be a better financial decision than to just keep pumping money into bungie.
 
I think they are at least given Season 2, but if it doesn't work out and offer any real boost or consistent positive in CCU(and chances of that are lowering every day) that's it.

I mean, we're a month(assuming its beginning of June) or more out from Season 2 and they are staring down the barrel of 10k peaks in the beginning of May.
 
Timberwolf25 said:
Are they doing a patch every Tuesday to tweak the gameplay?
They really must be throwing shit at the wall hoping something sticks. And at the rate that it is declining, I guess you can't blame them.
They're probably at the "what do we have to lose" stage of desperation.

Most games that do PvP, might do an emergency patch if something is obviously broken, but tend to patch at most monthly or more likely seasonally.
Click to expand...
Imagine if they had put this much effort into Destiny?

When they were riding the Destiny gravy train they didn't give a single fuck about what players thought or wanted, and only looked for more ways to suck every drop of blood out of the people who played their game, but now that they are in pure desperation, "I'm going to lose my job" mode, they've got weekly patches, tons of interaction with the community and a vocal social media presence.

People notice this stuff, and they'll remember how a company acts when they are down vs when they are riding high.
 
Moridianae said:
I think they are at least given Season 2, but if it doesn't work out and offer any real boost or consistent positive in CCU(and chances of that are lowering every day) that's it.

I mean, we're a month(assuming its beginning of June) or more out from Season 2 and they are staring down the barrel of 10k peaks in the beginning of May.
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With what they currently have announced is coming with S2, it won't be enough to turn the tide around. Sorry Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes but unless they have some major huge earth shattering surprises coming with S2 it just won't be enough.
 
Mengy said:
With what they currently have announced is coming with S2, it won't be enough to turn the tide around. Sorry Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes but unless they have some major huge earth shattering surprises coming with S2 it just won't be enough.
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Most games that turn their player populations around don't do so with "major huge earth shattering suprises". The only one I can actually think of is FFIX:Online.

Marathon is "poker with guns". Would anyone ever find playing high stakes poker with 2 random teammates who semi consistently wreck your sh*t fun?

S2 will address that faulty concept with better solo & duo modes. Would you call that an earth shattering surprise? Do you think it'll help with retention?
 
Men_in_Boxes said:
Most games that turn their player populations around don't do so with "major huge earth shattering suprises". The only one I can actually think of is FFIX:Online.

Marathon is "poker with guns". Would anyone ever find playing high stakes poker with 2 random teammates who semi consistently wreck your sh*t fun?

S2 will address that faulty concept with better solo & duo modes. Would you call that an earth shattering surprise? Do you think it'll help with retention?
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No, I think it will take much more than that to bring in new players, or to even bring players back. What good is a solo mode if the game is still so incredibly sweaty and hardcore that people can't find the fun in playing it? And yes I know a small subset of gamers love it being sweaty and excusatory, but as a live service game Marathon needs players, it needs high CCU's to survive, and I feel simply adding a solo/duo mode with a night time version of an existing map is not enough to do that.

The core of the game needs to change, it needs to appeal to a wider audience. Bungie needs to admit its not currently working and change course. In short it just needs to be more fun to play and less like hard work, less punishing. That is if they want higher player counts. In my opinion.
 
Mengy said:
No, I think it will take much more than that to bring in new players, or to even bring players back. What good is a solo mode if the game is still so incredibly sweaty and hardcore that people can't find the fun in playing it? And yes I know a small subset of gamers love it being sweaty and excusatory, but as a live service game Marathon needs players, it needs high CCU's to survive, and I feel simply adding a solo/duo mode with a night time version of an existing map is not enough to do that.
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Why do you think the only addition or adjustment for S2 will be a solo & duo mode?

Don't you think they have a big board of issues that'll be addressed, to varying degrees, for S2?
Mengy said:
The core of the game needs to change, it needs to appeal to a wider audience. Bungie needs to admit its not currently working and change course. In short it just needs to be more fun to play and less like hard work, less punishing. That is if they want higher player counts. In my opinion.
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Can you tell me why other games that launched with low player numbers turned it around without earth shattering updates?
 
Unfortunately I bought Marathon on PS5 at launch... hated it. Tried again to play a few days ago to squeeze my money's worth out of it... tried multiple times to join a match over the course of a day and it took forever. Not sure if something was going on that day or what but I seriously couldn't get in a game.
 
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