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[Alrus]

500k for Killzone 3 is bad.

I never understood why people expect Killzone to do much more impressive number than they do. It's clearly not a major franchise, KZ2 was just overhyped at some point... I guess they're profitable enough to get sequels though.

 

[bigtroyjon]

I never understood why people expect Killzone to do much more impressive number than they do. It's clearly not a major franchise, KZ2 was just overhyped at some point... I guess they're profitable enough to get sequels though.

They are games that should do big time numbers in the US. Heavily marketed, shooter, exclusive, things that individually have set this gen on fire sales wise, Killzone has all three yet the sales never really took off.

 

[matmanx1]

Great article once again jvm. We appreciate all your hard work. My own predictions for the 3DS were somewhere in the 5-600k range for the month but I am not surprised that it actually sold much less than that. I think the system will be a good seller but won't set the world on fire until the software situation gets better. Still, I'm looking forward to the potential of that little device and I've already put many hours of play on mine.

It also seems like even with the software decline that March was a pretty strong month for retail in the video games business and everyone is making money with their hardware which is always a good thing. I still wish you (and us) got detailed information on the digital download picture in the US because it's very clear that there's alot of money being spent on DD titles right now and that will only increase in the future. NPD's comments on the matter are sparse, that's for sure.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

No, because every purchaser who bought a 360 at launch has had an extra year to buy games so time on market does effect tie ratio. As is pointed out in the article the recent drop in sales of the Wii hardware have allowed its tie ratio to rapidly increase, while the increase in 360 sales are holding the tie ratio steady. Basically tie ratio is a pretty bad metric, as a 'good' value often represents poor performance of hardware more than good performance of software.

Anyone have current numbers on average time of ownership of each console?

 

[akilshohen]

This doesn't mean Dance Central has done poorly, or that all games should be ported to the Wii: rather, Harmonix happens to be a company that makes games that are particularly suited to the Wii audience, and their continued negligence in this regard certainly doesn't help their already precarious financial situation.

Dance Central wouldn't work the same on the Wii. I can't imagine Dance Central on the Wii without it being the same as Just Dance. Maybe the Killer App for Motion+?
Although I'd love to see harmonix make a dance game specifically for the Wii.

 

[Kafel]

So no 3DS impact?

 

[Zen]

Not that bad. Killzone 2 was at around 600k during the same timeframe and that game had a lot more hype and a lot more backlash.

If anything, it shows that Killzone is an established franchise, and not a growing one.

It also doesn't include copies put into customer hands from bundles (new owners, who bought the bundle for Killzone 3 or otherwise).

 

[jvm]

It also doesn't include copies put into customer hands from bundles (new owners, who bought the bundle for Killzone 3 or otherwise).

We know this effect was 44K in February.

So no 3DS impact?

The handheld software segment was effectively flat. If we (very roughly) estimate that 3DS software averaged around $37, then you're looking at just $14-15 million in software revenue for the 3DS. The PSP probably did around $10-12 million for March 2011, or approximately half of what it did in March 2010. So the loss of $10 million from the PSP dying and the gain of $15 million from the 3DS launching ... basically not much of a gain. Add into that continued weakness of NDS software that isn't Pokémon and there you have it.

Long story short: 3DS made up for loss of PSP and NDS revenue, handheld market flat.

 

[Huff]

We know this effect was 44K in February.

Any estimate on the number of bundles sold in March?

 

[jetjevons]

I never understood why people expect Killzone to do much more impressive number than they do.

Because they sort of have to to justify the immense cost.

 

[szaromir]

Because they sort of have to to justify the immense cost.

I wonder what actual ROI for Killzone games is.

 

[legend166]

I think all the tie ratio shows is something I've thought for a long time, that the difference between the average owners of each console are not as anywhere near as big as people think

The majority of owners of each console are casual players. The type of game they play might be different, but the buying habits aren't all that different.

 

[szaromir]

I think all the tie ratio shows is something I've thought for a long time, that the difference between the average owners of each console are not as anywhere near as big as people think

The majority of owners of each console are casual players. The type of game they play might be different, but the buying habits aren't all that different.

Tie ratio should be considered together with another stat - average weeks of ownership, otherwise it's rather useless I reckon. At this point Wii could have a much higher average weeks of ownership value than PS3 as Wii's sales slowed down so dramatically since 2007-2008. Either way, the differences aren't big.

 

[Phonomezer]

Why the bloody wasn't dance evolution able to obtain the grace of the dance boom?

I know

Dance Evoltion/Masters is a great game, but it had zero marketing.

 

[Phonomezer]

I never understood why people expect Killzone to do much more impressive number than they do. It's clearly not a major franchise, KZ2 was just overhyped at some point... I guess they're profitable enough to get sequels though.

If at some point you mean a good 4 years

 

[Dedication Through Light]

They are games that should do big time numbers in the US. Heavily marketed, shooter, exclusive, things that individually have set this gen on fire sales wise, Killzone has all three yet the sales never really took off.

Quite sure that as long as it meets internal goals is all that matters. Just how big does one expect it to be in this crowded FPS environment?

 

[Mindlog]

I wonder what actual ROI for Killzone games is.

Roughly 750,000,000 gifs.

Interesting ASP numbers. New avenue of inquiry: History of ASP volatility.

 

[Margalis]

Yeah. I'll admit, I didn't believe it at first. But when I re-checked all the charts, I realized that JD2 did at least 2.5 million in 2010 and then appears to have had about 500K each month this year. A little extra here or there, and you're up to 4.4 million. Guh.

I really wish people would stop shitting all over Just Dance. (And no, I am in no way affiliated with Just Dance or Ubisoft.)

It really annoys me how Just Dance is considered a throwaway baby game for stupid people yet Dance Central is somehow a real and awesome game for teh hardcorz.

At no point have I ever seen a single person in the mainstream press try to understand why Just Dance is popular or show any evidence that they have played Just Dance and are dismissing it for a real reason. Willful ignorance is not a virtue.

If you read reader reviews of the Just Dance series there are very real and consistent reasons why it sells well. It's a well-designed game that gives a large target audience what it is looking for. The attitude that its sales are somehow perplexing or undeserved strikes me as knee-jerk nonsense.

/rant

Guitar Hero maintained its dominance over Rock Band at the height of the genre's popularity thanks to proper Wii support -- the Wii was the largest market for those types of games -- and now, once again, Dance Central is being hugely dominated by a game in the same genre that chose the Wii as its primary platform (Just Dance).

To me this is an apples-to-oranges comparison. Rock Band and Guitar Hero target the same audience. Just Dance and Dance Central don't. The audience for Dance Central is teens/20 somethings who are all into dance to the point where they want to either learn "real" dance moves or show off their knowledge. Just Dance is for families who want to have a fun silly time together while getting some exercise.

 

[jvm]

I really wish people would stop shitting all over Just Dance. (And no, I am in no way affiliated with Just Dance or Ubisoft.)

It really annoys me how Just Dance is considered a throwaway baby game for stupid people yet Dance Central is somehow a real and awesome game for teh hardcorz.

At no point have I ever seen a single person in the mainstream press try to understand why Just Dance is popular or show any evidence that they have played Just Dance and are dismissing it for a real reason. Willful ignorance is not a virtue.

If you read reader reviews of the Just Dance series there are very real and consistent reasons why it sells well. It's a well-designed game that gives a large target audience what it is looking for. The attitude that its sales are somehow perplexing or undeserved strikes me as knee-jerk nonsense.

/rant

Uh. I was surprised merely because it's not a game I had thought of selling 4 MILLION. I knew it was a game people were buying, just not in that volume.

About the game itself, I have no opinion.

 

[Margalis]

My rant was not aimed specifically at you. But if you express shock that something has sold well and end with "guh" I think it's reasonable to conclude you aren't a big fan.

 

[jvm]

My rant was not aimed specifically at you, bet lets be real, if you express shock that something has sold well and end with "guh" it's reasonable to conclude you aren't a big fan.

I tend to use "Guh" as an expression of amazement or self-deprecation. In this case, it sold well and far beyond the scale I had in mind (around 2 million was my mental marker) and I felt a bit stupid for not having paid better attention.

Again, neither fan nor foe. I literally have no opinion on Just Dance. It's not something to which I'm naturally drawn, but at the same time not something which I would avoid if given the chance.

But, by all means, read into it as you will.