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Marvelous Ent. sales expectations for FY2009 (as well as some related infos)

Stormbringer

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I've seen these numbers floating around for a while, but now that I can tally these with a credible source, I thought I'd post them in their own thread rather than to bump the old one again. Here they are then :

Sales forecast for FY2009 (first number is domestic sales, number in parenthesis are North American and European sales) :


• Little King Story (Wii) : 45k (NA : 120k , EU : 124k)

• Oboro Muramasa Youtouden (Wii) : 56k

• Harvest Fishing (DS) : (EU : 35k)

• Harvest Moon : Island of Happiness (DS) : (EU : 450k)

• Rune Factory (DS) : (EU : 80k)

• Luminous Arc Will (DS) : 86k

• Steal Princess (DS) : 19k

• Avalon Code (DS) : 56k (NA :40k, EU :39k)

• Tokyo Majin Gakuen (DS) : 62k

• Valhalla Knights 2 (PSP) : 68k (NA : 30k)

Sources : 1, 2


Also, while we're at it (various results and forecasts) :

-net sales : 1,238.7M (down 0.8% from last year)
-operating profit : 352M yen
-ordinary profit : 326M yen
-net profit : 791M yen

Also :

-Expectedly positive bilan, despite inferior amount of sales compared to last year
-Overseas business is in good shape, thanks to good results of subsidiary Rising Star Games, with most satisfactory sales of "Harvest Moon DS" (330k units sold in Europe, 530k shipped), "No More Heroes"(Wii) [cvxfreakgirl.jpg], and "Harvest Moon Magical Melody"(Wii).

Sources : 1, 2
Number of actual/forecasted titles per console and actual/forecasted shipments for FY2008 and 2009 :

FY2008 (Japan + Overseas) :

Wii : 8 titles (5 Japan + 3 Overseas) : 520k units (168k Japan + 352k Overseas)
DS : 18 titles (12 + 6) : 1,141k units (599k + 541k)
PS2 : 11 titles (11 + 0) : 212k units (207k + 4k)
PSP : 4 titles (1 + 3) : 155k units (63k + 91k)

Forecasts FY2009 (Japan + Overseas) :

Wii : 14 titles (7 Japan + 7 Overseas) : 1,070k units (380k Japan + 690k Overseas)
NDS : 23 titles (13 + 10) : 1,270k units (540k + 530k)
PS2 : 6 titles (4 + 2) : 90k units (80k + 10k)
PSP : 6 titles (4 + 2) : 200k units (150k + 50 k)

Various shipments as of 03/08 :

No More Heroes -> EU : 150k / NA : 180k
Harvest Moon DS -> EU : 530k / NA : 280k

Sources : 1, 2

As it's mainly a Japanese company, it's always a bit weird to see their domestic expectations next to their overseas one :lol . However, given the actual results of some of their IP in each region, I really can't blame them to try to actively pursue the overseas market...
Also, looks like they've found a pretty good success by betting mostly on "last gen"...Good for them, I say.
 

batbeg

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Huh, had Avalon Code already been revealed as being localized to NA and Europe? Awesome news that they're already planning for it this fiscal year.

And very modest numbers around, it'd be nice if some of those titles exceed expectations. Although they seem to be quite hopeful for Little King's Story, which is good news. I hope it does well for them - I'll sure as hell be there day one :D

And, uh, wow at NMH. I didn't realize it had done so well :eek:
 

Stormbringer

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schuelma said:
Well, at least Oboro Muramasa Youtouden is still listed..

And pretty reasonable sales expectations IMO.
Yep, given the recent rumours of troubled development and even cancellation, that's rather reassuring...And I believe these are pretty reasonable forecasted sales as well. Given the notorious low costs strategy of the company, I can totally believe that these sales will satisfy them well enough (though of course, I'm sure they're not against some extra money there and there :p ...).
batbeg said:
And, uh, wow at NMH. I didn't realize it had done so well :eek:
Indeed. And pretty much all thanks to the West, too. They're aiming for 500k units shipped lifetime, which, I think, would be a real success for this game.
batbeg said:
Huh, had Avalon Code already been revealed as being localized to NA and Europe?
No, not yet, but it seems like financial statement can sometimes reveal some rather meaningful infos ...
 

BorkBork

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It's interesting to contrast their small business models to some of the other giants in the industry.
 

Lain

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They expect Valhalla Knights 2 to do better in NA than in JPN?
Does that mean the first performed better in NA compared to Japan as well?
 

Stormbringer

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Lain said:
They expect Valhalla Knights 2 to do better in NA than in JPN?
Does that mean the first performed better in NA compared to Japan as well?
Oops, sorry, I got my numbers mixed on this one :

JPN : 68k
NA : 30k

Apparently, from the same source, the previous one did 69k in JPN and 40k in NA, so, yeah...

• Harvest Moon : Island of Happiness (DS) : (EU : 45k)
Same here, it's 450k, and not 45k, obviously. Geez, I thought I checked everyting correctly :/ ...


[edit] Done. Found no other mistake, so everything should be fine now.
 

Alex

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I hope it does make it out, I really did love Odin Sphere.

I'll be buying Little King Story as well. Where is Rune Factory Wii!? A ways off still?
 

zoku88

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Heh, I didn't think Oboro would be coming out anytime soon since Vanillaware was having troubles with it.

Man, those are some really low sales, though. I guess most of those games don't cost a lot to develop, huh?
 
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So are those game numbers for each platform the total amount of games, or are just the JPN ones the total number of games from Marvelous?

As in, for the 2009 forecast, it shows 14 titles for the WIi, 7 for each, but would that actually be 7 in total, for worldwide? I'm confused.
 

ThatObviousUser

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Holy crap at Oboru Muramasa! Still alive, I knew it all along.
 

Stormbringer

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Hero of legend said:
So are those game numbers for each platform the total amount of games, or are just the JPN ones the total number of games from Marvelous?

As in, for the 2009 forecast, it shows 14 titles for the WIi, 7 for each, but would that actually be 7 in total, for worldwide? I'm confused.
In this case, both numbers are actually the number of titles published for each region, independently, which could possibly mean that the same game is included twice in the total (14, in this example), yes.
 

Stormbringer

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GrotesqueBeauty said:
Should I be concerned that Oboro Muramasa Youtouden doesn't have NA/EU forecasts?
That's what I thought as well :/. It appears that, unfortunately, a localization doesn't seem to be planned for this fiscal year, at least.
See also their regional planning, for the fiscal year :



Yellow : JPN
Pale Yellow : NA
Pink : EU

Yeah...
 

botticus

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I'm surprised Oboro is expected in this fiscal year domestically, getting it out in the West in that timeframe would be too much to ask for.
 

Joule

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It's nice that Oboro is listed for this fiscal year. It'll be good to get more information on it, loved Odin Sphere after all. If they were able to fix up the flaws and keep or even improve the strengths of OS, that will be one amazing game.
 

jj984jj

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I guess this confirms that Luminous Arc 2 isn't coming out here? They would at least have EU numbers if it was. This list confirms that Rune Factory and Avalon Code are though.

john tv said:
"Harvest Fishing"? Running out of name ideas, perhaps? Yeesh. :)
Rising Star is just cashing in on the Harvest Moon brand, it's Legend of the River King.
 

TunaLover

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Stormbringer said:
• Oboro Muramasa Youtouden (Wii) : 56k
No NA release =(, I will miss it along Sky Crawlers, Devil Kings HEROES and maybe Fragile =(

Marvelous is easily becoming one of my most loved company.
 

_Alkaline_

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Nice NMH shipments.

Very glad to see that Oboro Muramasa Youtouden is still alive. The game looked way too good to have been cancelled.
 

charlequin

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jj984jj said:
I guess this confirms that Luminous Arc 2 isn't coming out here?
Why would this list confirm that? If LA2 is covered by their deal with XSEED, we're talking about a company that generally has a 9-12 month window in bringing a game from Japan to America; if LA2 is published by Atlus it might not be included in the list.
 

Akai

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Avalon Code confirmed for U.S. release = awesome...

Steal Princess and OMY not confirmed (yet) for U.S. release = not awesome... =(
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
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charlequin said:
Why would this list confirm that? If LA2 is covered by their deal with XSEED, we're talking about a company that generally has a 9-12 month window in bringing a game from Japan to America; if LA2 is published by Atlus it might not be included in the list.
It was a question but I think this the chances are very unlikely see how the only other title in that list that has already come out in Japan is Rune Factory 2 and it is the one of the few titles that have no NA/EU projections.

If LA2 was being brought over by MMV/XSEED I don't see why it wouldn't have a similar schedule to Valhalla Knights 2, LA2 was released just before it would certainly make it over here before games that have not even been released in Japan yet. It should at the very least have NA projections on there. Also, all the games MMV/XSEED are planning to co-publish here completely prove your general release window false:

Valhalla Knights 2
JP - May 29th
NA - TBA Fall 08
EU - by the end of this FY (Q1 09)

King Story
JP - TBA Summer 08
NA - TBA Winter 08
EU - Q1 09

Avalon Code
JP- Fall 08
NA/EU - by the end of this FY (Q1 09)

Yes I'm aware that any of the titles above may be delayed as they don't have solid dates, but that's exactly why I think if Atlus was bring this over they would at least have EU projections on there for LA2. They even have EU projections for Natsume's upcoming Harvest Moon games.
 

Jammy

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:D

I'm really excited that Oboro's still apparently in development.
Also, that No More Heroes has done really well for them and that Little King's Story is coming at the end of this year.
 

Phife Dawg

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Thanks Stormbringer, your input is very much appreciated.

I think the expectations are pretty reasonable. And seeing that they are indeed making money (unlike some bigger companies with blockbuster titles) I think they're doing a good, a damn good job, even if their games don't sell bazillions.

Stormbringer said:
Indeed. And pretty much all thanks to the West, too. They're aiming for 500k units shipped lifetime, which, I think, would be a real success for this game.
Yeah, it's a big success story and well deserved. It's one of the roughest games I've ever played and the overworld is boring, but the fighting is so rewarding and the characters are so over the top that it's a great game in the end - not for everyone though.

john tv said:
"Harvest Fishing"? Running out of name ideas, perhaps? Yeesh. :)
Slapping on the "Harvest" name it is. Harvest Moon is hugely popular here in Germany for instance - the really old DS title (with sub-SNES gfx) was in the Top 10 for a long time. I guess it's the same for most other European countries.
 

Kittonwy

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farnham said:
No More Heroes -> EU : 150k / NA : 180k


so much for No more heroes is a flop
I don't know what the budget is for NMH, but it's not exactly cheap like a Harvest Moon game, I'm not sure if they can ship fewer copies than this, those aren't exactly sold-through numbers here. I doubt they made money on the title and this whole "it's a suda game" rationale is just bizarre, if suda keeps making games that are money-losers why would anyone fund him? It's not good business.
 

AniHawk

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Kittonwy said:
I don't know what the budget is for NMH, but it's not exactly cheap like a Harvest Moon game, I'm not sure if they can ship fewer copies than this, those aren't exactly sold-through numbers here. I doubt they made money on the title and this whole "it's a suda game" rationale is just bizarre, if suda keeps making games that are money-losers why would anyone fund him? It's not good business.
They had a party because of NA's sales (I think), and it was at least at 100k at the end of February. It wasn't a flop.
 
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Kittonwy said:
I don't know what the budget is for NMH, but it's not exactly cheap like a Harvest Moon game, I'm not sure if they can ship fewer copies than this, those aren't exactly sold-through numbers here. I doubt they made money on the title and this whole "it's a suda game" rationale is just bizarre, if suda keeps making games that are money-losers why would anyone fund him? It's not good business.
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis Debbie.
 

Kittonwy

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AniHawk said:
They had a party because of NA's sales (I think), and it was at least at 100k at the end of February. It wasn't a flop.
Am I reading you right? What kind of publisher would have a party for 100k? I would have a party if the game sold a mil but 100k? How many copies did they expect to sell? 50k? 20k? How low did they basically set the bar for sales? How much did it cost them to fund NMH? 5 mil? 10 mil?
 

AniHawk

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Kittonwy said:
Am I reading you right? What kind of publisher would have a party for 100k? I would have a party if the game sold a mil but 100k? How many copies did they expect to sell? 50k? 20k? How low did they basically set the bar for sales? How much did it cost them to fund NMH? 5 mil? 10 mil?
Did you even play NMH? I like the game, but it's obviously very low budget.

Anyway, wikisays:

Shortly after No More Heroes's European release, PAL publisher Rising Star raved about its sales, with manager Martin Defries proclaiming:

"We are weeping with delight. Especially as sales should improve further with the TV campaign moving up a gear from tonight. It is a verification of all the posturing and ambitious claims made these past months. I think a 'told you so' would be apt at some point. Thanks to Nintendo and the Wii console. Thanks to Mastertronic for their sales efforts and all our retail partners. Most of all thanks to Grasshopper for the greatest of products"
Original plan was 160k for the European release though...
 

wsippel

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Kittonwy said:
Am I reading you right? What kind of publisher would have a party for 100k? I would have a party if the game sold a mil but 100k? How many copies did they expect to sell? 50k? 20k? How low did they basically set the bar for sales? How much did it cost them to fund NMH? 5 mil? 10 mil?
Well below $5M I think.
 

rakka

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Kittonwy said:
Am I reading you right? What kind of publisher would have a party for 100k?
it did quite a bit better than his previous games, didn't it? who wouldn't be fucking happy with that?
 
Kittonwy said:
Am I reading you right? What kind of publisher would have a party for 100k?
One that's happy with 100k sales, obviously. Publishers aren't typically run by forum goons that demand everything to sell a million copies on launch day.

Also this is so unlike you, Kittonwy. Making actual posts and everything. Where's your usual unfunny Uncharted!!!11 spam and smileys?
 

Pureauthor

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Kittonwy said:
Am I reading you right? What kind of publisher would have a party for 100k?
A publisher of Suda Goichi games would. Do you even realize how much they usually sell?
 

-WindYoshi-

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Such low expectations for Steal Princess... Climax deserves better!
At least Matrix seems to have a pretty good outlook with Avalon Code.
 

legend166

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NMH has shipped 330k?

Nice.

How much would Grasshopper actually get of that? $15-20 a copy? At $15 a copy, that's about 5 million dollars, US. That'd cover the budget eaaasily.

Kittowny is hilarious wrong in this thread, by the way.
 

Stumpokapow

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Kittonwy said:
I don't know what the budget is for NMH, but it's not exactly cheap like a Harvest Moon game, I'm not sure if they can ship fewer copies than this, those aren't exactly sold-through numbers here. I doubt they made money on the title and this whole "it's a suda game" rationale is just bizarre, if suda keeps making games that are money-losers why would anyone fund him? It's not good business.
Let's look at some facts
- Suda started Grasshopper with 50,000 dollars US. This is not a large or high maintenance company.

- Grasshopper has always worked as a contract developer and especially sound developer when they have not been working on their own projects. It is entirely possible that the company can sustain itself by alternating between vanity projects and cash raisers.

- Suda has given several lectures on how to cut corners in game development and save money. All of his games are low budget. This includes No More Heroes.

- Marvelous has repeatedly said how happy they are with the sales, indicating that the project was likely profitable.
 

_Alkaline_

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Kittonwy said:
I don't know what the budget is for NMH, but it's not exactly cheap like a Harvest Moon game, I'm not sure if they can ship fewer copies than this, those aren't exactly sold-through numbers here. I doubt they made money on the title and this whole "it's a suda game" rationale is just bizarre, if suda keeps making games that are money-losers why would anyone fund him? It's not good business.
:lol
 

charlequin

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jj984jj said:
It was a question but I think this the chances are very unlikely see how the only other title in that list that has already come out in Japan is Rune Factory 2 and it is the one of the few titles that have no NA/EU projections.
Yes, but it still doesn't confirm anything. That's really my point. I honestly don't see much reason why LA2 wouldn't see either a Euro or NA release, so assuming that they're just being slow about it seems as reasonable to me as assuming they've decided never to localize it.

If LA2 was being brought over by MMV/XSEED I don't see why it wouldn't have a similar schedule to Valhalla Knights 2
I don't know specifically, but some of XSEED's timing decisions are pretty odd, at least based off of browsing their release history. Why did Brave Story take over a year to come out in the US?