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Marvelous Ent. sales expectations for FY2009 (as well as some related infos)

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
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Like I mentioned in the MC thread where I crossposted some of the OP, I think it's very given the very tiny numbers for titles they are localizing that they've got a profitable setup in terms of localizing stuff... Given that LA1 has outsold their projections for Valhalla Knights 2 and Avalon Code, it seems pretty unlikely that LA2 wouldn't--and there's no reason to suggest it'd cost any more to localize than either of those two games.

I am curious about the rest of the FY2009 titles that we don't know about, both Japanese and localized.
 

radcliff

Member
Jun 10, 2004
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legend166 said:
NMH has shipped 330k?

Nice.

How much would Grasshopper actually get of that? $15-20 a copy? At $15 a copy, that's about 5 million dollars, US. That'd cover the budget eaaasily.

Kittowny is hilarious wrong in this thread, by the way.

I think the 330K is just for US and Europe. But I would imagine Japan's shipments won't add too much to the total.
 

charlequin

Banned
Oct 19, 2005
26,635
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Stumpokapow said:
Like I mentioned in the MC thread where I crossposted some of the OP, I think it's very given the very tiny numbers for titles they are localizing that they've got a profitable setup in terms of localizing stuff... Given that LA1 has outsold their projections for Valhalla Knights 2 and Avalon Code, it seems pretty unlikely that LA2 wouldn't--and there's no reason to suggest it'd cost any more to localize than either of those two games.
Right. There's also no particular reason not to sit on it and put it out during what one might expect to be a quiet Q2 in 2009, assuming that they have a limit on how many games they can really get out at any given time (pretty reasonable, given their tiny operation.)

If you look at the Harvest Moon games, a lot of them have gotten way backed up to the point that they're releasing in the US well after their sequel/followup comes out in Japan.
 

Sule

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Feb 15, 2007
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Stumpokapow said:
Let's look at some facts

- Suda has given several lectures on how to cut corners in game development and save money. All of his games are low budget. This includes No More Heroes.
ooooh, never heard of this before. I knew he gave a presentation at GDC once, though. You don't happen to have any transcripts or anything of any of these lectures?
 

Phife Dawg

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Dec 4, 2006
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Kittonwy said:
I don't know what the budget is for NMH, but it's not exactly cheap like a Harvest Moon game, I'm not sure if they can ship fewer copies than this, those aren't exactly sold-through numbers here. I doubt they made money on the title and this whole "it's a suda game" rationale is just bizarre, if suda keeps making games that are money-losers why would anyone fund him? It's not good business.
You should stick to posting "RAWR".

Kittonwy said:
Am I reading you right? What kind of publisher would have a party for 100k? I would have a party if the game sold a mil but 100k? How many copies did they expect to sell? 50k? 20k? How low did they basically set the bar for sales? How much did it cost them to fund NMH? 5 mil? 10 mil?
:lol Between this and the guy saying that the Conduit trailer looks as good as Halo 3 GAF delivers once again.
 

jesusraz

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Apr 27, 2006
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Stumpokapow said:
Like I mentioned in the MC thread where I crossposted some of the OP, I think it's very given the very tiny numbers for titles they are localizing that they've got a profitable setup in terms of localizing stuff... Given that LA1 has outsold their projections for Valhalla Knights 2 and Avalon Code, it seems pretty unlikely that LA2 wouldn't--and there's no reason to suggest it'd cost any more to localize than either of those two games.

I am curious about the rest of the FY2009 titles that we don't know about, both Japanese and localized.
I asked RSG about LA2 the other day, since I also thought it'd be a lock for a quick release. The response was there are no plans to bring it to Europe 'yet'...Given how the first Rune Factory is only coming out here in September, a Q2 (or even Q3!) 2009 release for LA2 would not surprise me at all.

And HK-47, I believe it's meant to be marginally better than the first. Personally I enjoyed the first game, so am really looking forward to the sequel...
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
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Sule said:
ooooh, never heard of this before. I knew he gave a presentation at GDC once, though. You don't happen to have any transcripts or anything of any of these lectures?
I don't have any transcripts, but here's a record of a talk he gave in Australia. It doesn't emphasize the "how to make a game on a budget" thing, but I do know that that's one of the talks where he shared his nuggets on the issue. There were most definitely others; I think there was a GAFfer who attended at least one of the talks, because I remember someone discussing it here.

You'll probably need to google a bit, but you'll definitely be able to find stuff related to the fact that Grasshopper's assistance on Samurai Champloo and Shining Soul 2 were to get cash to finance the rest of the projects.

There's a Japanese website that lists number of employees and startup/seed funding for various companies that noted that Grasshopper is ~45 people and the startup capital was about 50k. (Note: this suggests the "$5-$10 million dollars for No More Heroes" Kittonwy claim reflects $100,000-$200,000 per Grasshopper employee; a figure that'd be astronomical for American game industry workers, let alone Japanese ones who are generally paid a lesser amount)

I wish I had more links for you, but hopefully you find the information interesting at any rate.
 

Sule

Member
Feb 15, 2007
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Stumpokapow said:
I wish I had more links for you, but hopefully you find the information interesting at any rate.
No problem, thanks for the link and post. Interesting stuff, really.
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
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jj984jj said:
above may be delayed as they don't have solid dates, but that's exactly why I think if Atlus was bring this over they would at least have EU projections on there for LA2. They even have EU projections for Natsume's upcoming Harvest Moon games.
Natsume has no EU division, Marvelous is releasing the games themselves there (under their Rising Star brand). And actually, Natsume's US Harvest Moon releases (Island of Happiness DS and Tree of Tranquility Wii, both due this year) are missing from the projections.

I'd say this list only cover Marvelous, Rising Star and the XSEED deal... meaning Atlus might still be bringing out LA2 this year. Personally though, I suspect XSEED will do the honors next year and Atlus will move on to the Summon Night ports...
 

Stormbringer

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Feb 28, 2006
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Yep, it's that time again (midterm results and forecasts) ->

Midterm results :

Japan :

• Luminous Arc 2 (DS) - midterm shipments : 70k units (total : 86k units)
• Hitman Reborn (PSP) - midterm shipments : 43k (current total 56k, Fiscal Year forecast : 60k)
• Valhalla Knights (PSP) - midterm shipments : 85k (current total : 87k, FY forecast upped from 68k to 90k)
• Ikkitousen Eloquent Fist (PSP) - midterm shipments : 24k (current total : 34k, FY forecast upped from 33k to 35k)



Plans for rest of the fiscal year :

Japan :

• Harvest Moon WakuWaku Animal March (Wii) - Starting shipment : 43k, FY forecast : 50k
• Avalon Code (DS) - Starting shipment : 74k, FY forecast : 85k (upped from 56k)
• Akagawa Jirou Mystery (DS) - Starting shipment 23k, FY forecast : 29k
• Hitman Reborn (Wii) - Starting shipment : 17k, FY forecast : 19k
• Hitman Reborn ( PS2) - Starting shipment : 1.75k, FY forecast : 30k
• Rune Factory Frontier (Wii) - Starting retail preorders : 45k, FY forecast : 55k
• Junjyou Romantica (PS2) - Starting retail preorders : 13k
• Harvest Moon Welcome to the Wind Bazaar (DS) - Starting retail preorders 120k, FY forecast 170k
• Oboro Muramasa Youtouden (Wii) - [previous forecast was 56k, but since the Wii domestic marketplace is in bad shape, they are reconsidering their previsions]

Europe :

• Harvest Moon Island of Happiness (DS) - Starting retail preorders : 130k, FY forecast is down from 450k to 250k
• Rune Factory A Fantasy Harvest Moon (DS) - FY Forecast is down from 80k to 60k
• Harvest Moon Tree of Tranquility (Wii) - FY Forecast : 220k
• Little King's Story (Wii) - FY forecast is up from 124k to 125k

America :

• Valhalla Knights 2 (PSP) Starting shipment : 32k, FY forecast : 35k
• Avalon Code (DS) - FY forecast : 40k
• Rune Factory Frontier (Wii) - FY forecast : 100k
• Little King's Story (Wii) - FY forecast up from 120k to 150k


Source : the latest investors briefing, via a 2ch transcription.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
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Stormbringer said:
• Oboro Muramasa Youtouden (Wii) - [previous forecast was 56k, but since the Wii domestic marketplace is in bad shape, they are reconsidering their previsions]
.
:-/
 

Stormbringer

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Feb 28, 2006
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jj984jj said:
Nothing for Arc Rise Fantasia?
Nope, nothing at all... I certainly would have liked to know their expectations for this title, especially after their comment on the unfavorable situation of the Wii market in Japan.
 

vareon

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Feb 5, 2007
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Interesting since they're my favorite company now. Thanks Stormbringer.

What do they mean "Wii domestic marketplace is in bad shape"?
 

Cosmonaut X

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Jun 5, 2006
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vareon said:
What do they mean "Wii domestic marketplace is in bad shape"?
Well, Wii titles just don't seem to be taking off. Some have done very well, but the mid-level and budget titles don't appear to be meeting expectations and that is getting to be a big problem. The audience that made the PS2 such a software powerhouse seem to have shifted to the DS, and to a lesser extent the PSP, and Nintendo and other third parties are having real trouble (in Japan, anyway) getting them on to the Wii.
 

RpgN

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Dec 19, 2007
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Wow, I didn't expect Harvest Moon games to be selling this well in EU. It looked like a franchise mainly aimed to the Japanese audience. I'm glad though, the games are really fun and a nice change between other games.

I hope we'll be getting Fragile too.

And the figures are very realistic, unlike an other company called bamco :)>
 

vareon

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Feb 5, 2007
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Cosmonaut X said:
Well, Wii titles just don't seem to be taking off. Some have done very well, but the mid-level and budget titles don't appear to be meeting expectations and that is getting to be a big problem. The audience that made the PS2 such a software powerhouse seem to have shifted to the DS, and to a lesser extent the PSP, and Nintendo and other third parties are having real trouble (in Japan, anyway) getting them on to the Wii.
Ah, so that's why they put some modest number for their Wii titles, then? Thanks.
 

Tenbatsu

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May 9, 2007
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Cosmonaut X said:
Well, Wii titles just don't seem to be taking off. Some have done very well, but the mid-level and budget titles don't appear to be meeting expectations and that is getting to be a big problem. The audience that made the PS2 such a software powerhouse seem to have shifted to the DS, and to a lesser extent the PSP, and Nintendo and other third parties are having real trouble (in Japan, anyway) getting them on to the Wii.
I hope Tatsunoko Vs Capcom do well:/
 

Cosmonaut X

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Tenbatsu said:
I hope Tatsunoko Vs Capcom do well:/
I think that if the next wave of big and medium titles - stuff like Tatsunoko vs. Capcom, 428, Monster Hunter Tri etc. - don't perform well then the situation is hopeless.
 

Dascu

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Cosmonaut X said:
I think that if the next wave of big and medium titles - stuff like Tatsunoko vs. Capcom, 428, Monster Hunter Tri etc. - don't perform well then the situation is hopeless.
Wait for Secret Wii game.

What kind of numbers should we expect for Tatsunoko vs Capcom?
 

Stormbringer

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Feb 28, 2006
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Phife Dawg said:
That can't be right though?
Yep, that would be 17.5k


By the way, more results (platform breakdown) :

- Midterm :

Japan :

Wii : 0 titles, 1k units
DS : 8 titles, 184k units
PS2 : 2 titles 51k units
PSP : 4 titles, 189k units

Europe :

Wii : 2 titles, 60k units
DS : 2 titles, 86k units
PS2 : 2 titles, 4k units
PSP : 1 titles, 50k units

America :

No title sold under Marvelous Entertainment USA (officially established in November) for this period.


- Forecasts for the remaining fiscal year :

Japan :

Wii : 4 titles, 150k units
DS : 12 titles, 500k units
PS2 : 5 titles, 110k units
PSP : 5 titles, 300k units

Europe :

Wii : 4 titles, 400k units
DS : 12 titles, 560k units
PS2 : 2 titles, 50k units
PSP : 1 title, 25k units

America :

Wii : 2 titles, 250k units
DS : 1 title, 40k units
PSP : 1 title, 35k units

Source
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
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Cosmonaut X said:
I think that if the next wave of big and medium titles - stuff like Tatsunoko vs. Capcom, 428, Monster Hunter Tri etc. - don't perform well then the situation is hopeless.

I've said it before- 3rd parties skipped the step where they release big games to build the userbase so those medium tier titles can do well.

Monster Hunter 3 needed to come out this year
 

donny2112

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Apr 18, 2005
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schuelma said:
I've said it before- 3rd parties skipped the step where they release big games to build the userbase so those medium tier titles can do well.
They spent the effort to build it on the PS360, but those consoles aren't appealing (for the most part) to the non-hardcore PS2 owners. If they'd have spent the effort to ensure a Wii port of every major PS360 (i.e. already multi-platform) Japanese release, I think they'd be in much better position, right now. Oh, well. Maybe it'll improve with the next round, like we both hope. I have to think that the PS2 owners can't all be content with the DS/PS2 combination for the next several years. Either the non-winning console(s) will see an unprecedented surge or they'll go to the Wii. I suppose there's also the remote possibility that they'll hold onto the PS2 long enough to have the next generation come around, but as I said, I consider that remote.
 

dark steve

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May 9, 2006
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-WindYoshi- said:
Such low expectations for Steal Princess... Climax deserves better!
Not when they don't bring their A-game. Or their B-game. I guess you could be kind and call it their C-game.