ManaByte
Member
In SoCal they 100% are and they've admitted to it. They're flying COVID patients in from Northern Mexico (the Baja area) and treating them in Riverside hospitals and counting them as COVID patients for the county.
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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
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In SoCal they 100% are and they've admitted to it. They're flying COVID patients in from Northern Mexico (the Baja area) and treating them in Riverside hospitals and counting them as COVID patients for the county.
diffusionx
Gold Member
First rule of data analysis: understand what the data shows and doesn’t show. You can’t just take the numbers at face value, ever.
Confirmed cases is a woefully inadequate denominator for the mortality rate.
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HarryKS
Member
Yeah, but what else am I going off here? Your word that it's 10x-100x more?
The point of contention here is whether it's accurate within the parameters I'm talking about. The reported deaths fall within the reported infection cases. It is not be the real death rate in the absolute, but in the absence of other data, it is what can be controlled for.
The percentage of deaths is therefore tantamount to a fraction of archived infections, using the current methodology.
I have no argument against the real number of cases. That falls within a different realm.
diffusionx
Gold Member
You can start by looking at antibody test results, like in NYC where they estimate about 21% of people have gotten it. That is almost 2 million, but the confirmed case number is about 210,000. You can also look at studies like this,
Study: Initial U.S. COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than believed
A new study concludes that the country's COVID-19 infection rate early on in the pandemic may have been over 80 times greater than originally reported.
www.studyfinds.org
cryptoadam
Banned
#believewomen ??
darkinstinct
...lacks reading comprehension.
We have had actual test data from Austria and Sweden and Italy that suggests the unknown infections are not even three times higher than the known infections in countries that test a lot. And that's without even a 90 % accurate test for antibodies, because most tests can't tell corona viruses apart, they only test for corona antibodies, not for SARS-CoV-2 specifically.You can start by looking at antibody test results, like in NYC where they estimate about 21% of people have gotten it. That is almost 2 million, but the confirmed case number is about 210,000. You can also look at studies like this,
Study: Initial U.S. COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than believed
A new study concludes that the country's COVID-19 infection rate early on in the pandemic may have been over 80 times greater than originally reported.
darkinstinct
...lacks reading comprehension.
Trump is so screwed. The fear of the virus will hurt the economy more than a short and sustained lockdown would have. The handling of Covid-19 in the US is second to only third-world countries. Even if now a complete lockdown was implemented, it would take three months to bring the numbers down to below 1.000 cases a day. As it stands they will go up massively over the next two weeks because that's how long it takes for anything to show an effect. Growth is exponential again, gonna be 100k infections a day in two weeks. Hospitals are already at max capacity, meaning death rates will spike massively. We've seen it in Italy, once the capacity isn't there anymore because of the sheer amount of new infections, people die from something as simple as a non-covid related concussion/fall because they can't be treated anymore. And all that with seeing how it happens in China, in Iran, in Italy, in France, in Brazil, ...
Tesseract
Banned
thefool
Member
Non-regional studies don't show that at all.
The paper is about estimating the ifr but he goes through several seroprevalence studies. It's not three times. It's actually 5-500x. You can estimate this through the ifr in those regions but he has the data there about the populations and the positives.
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thefool
Member
Where are you even getting the sweden data?
D
darkinstinct
sverigesradio.se
6,1% in the country, in late may. You have around 0,61% detected, in late june. 10 times less, much more with 1 month of spread.
And we're still completely blind about people who seem immune to it without these particular antibodies
New study: 6.1 percent of Swedes had developed covid-19 antibodies by late May - Radio Sweden
A new study shows that 6.1% of Sweden's population had developed antibodies to Covid-19 by late May, a lower figure than predicted in previous ...
sverigesradio.se
6,1% in the country, in late may. You have around 0,61% detected, in late june. 10 times less, much more with 1 month of spread.
And we're still completely blind about people who seem immune to it without these particular antibodies
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Yup likely outcome , and he could had googled Spanish flu San Francisco, and implement all the rules early and kept them until a significant sustained drop showed.
DunDunDunpachi
Patient MembeR
It shocks me that after months, this still needs to be explained. GAFers have pointed out the potential inaccuracies from the earliest pages of the thread, particularly...You can start by looking at antibody test results, like in NYC where they estimate about 21% of people have gotten it. That is almost 2 million, but the confirmed case number is about 210,000. You can also look at studies like this,
Study: Initial U.S. COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than believed
A new study concludes that the country's COVID-19 infection rate early on in the pandemic may have been over 80 times greater than originally reported.
- "official" First Case dates were wrong, off by SEVERAL WEEKS in some instances
- lack of antibody testing meant that total new cases were a flawed method of gauging the spread
- misdiagnosis and false positives/negatives of COVID was far more rampant than they admitted initially
- rates from dense megacities and unique cases were extrapolated across entire countries/continents
"Official" lethality rate was based on the above pieces of misinformation
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THE:MILKMAN
Member
Went for my dentist check-up today and boy they aren't messing about. My dentist was fully hazmat-ed up with an oxygen supply plus extreme precautions.
Also been called into work for redundancy.........So that sucks.
But hey the weather is scorching and I'm playing TLOU2!
Also been called into work for redundancy.........So that sucks.
But hey the weather is scorching and I'm playing TLOU2!
Ornlu
Banned
You can start by looking at antibody test results, like in NYC where they estimate about 21% of people have gotten it. That is almost 2 million, but the confirmed case number is about 210,000. You can also look at studies like this,
Study: Initial U.S. COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than believed
A new study concludes that the country's COVID-19 infection rate early on in the pandemic may have been over 80 times greater than originally reported.
diffusionx
beat me to it; there's a shitload of people who get it and either never get sick at all, or get mildly ill, or get ill to the level of the flu and don't bother with the hospital and testing. Why would you bother coming up with a fake mortality rate of 5%, when you know going in that your numbers are grossly wrong?
Pizdetz
Banned
Does anyone know how much Texas and Florida ramped up testing? Are the new numbers proportional to the testing increase or is the infection rate increasing?
If Texas/Arizona/Florida become the new NJ, NYC and Mass that will suck. Not only does it suck for those people but now there is increased risk of respreading through people traveling across states.
Imagine if Trump made red masks and branded them. All the Trumpers would likely be gleefully running around in masks proud of their president. It would have curbed the virus so much and saved so many lives. It would have prevented the precipitous drop in his approval Instead we got projections of 180k dead by October, immense economic loss, and you can't even measure yet the impact on other health conditions or the long lasting health effects of getting COVID.
We had all the tools and power to halt this crisis and even save the economy. Now things are going from bad to worse. Yeesh.
If Texas/Arizona/Florida become the new NJ, NYC and Mass that will suck. Not only does it suck for those people but now there is increased risk of respreading through people traveling across states.
Imagine if Trump made red masks and branded them. All the Trumpers would likely be gleefully running around in masks proud of their president. It would have curbed the virus so much and saved so many lives. It would have prevented the precipitous drop in his approval Instead we got projections of 180k dead by October, immense economic loss, and you can't even measure yet the impact on other health conditions or the long lasting health effects of getting COVID.
We had all the tools and power to halt this crisis and even save the economy. Now things are going from bad to worse. Yeesh.
H
hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
I mean you're having to deal with so much and then you have to suffer through that as well? You poor poor fucker - life really is horrible.
Petey-o
Member
...says increasingly nervous man
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Hey, its a good game so far!
llien
Member
WHOs wizdom is second only to Mao's:
www.bbc.com
Coronavirus: 'Very significant' resurgences in Europe alarm WHO
If left unchecked the resurgences will "push health systems to the brink once again", the WHO warns.
www.bbc.com
cryptoadam
Banned
COVID-19 vaccine may not work in older people, experts say
A vaccine against COVID-19 may not be as effective in older people who are most at risk of suffering complications and dying from the disease, according to U.K. researchers. However, some experts say immunizing those around the elderly may help protect them.
www.ctvnews.ca
Sorry old people no luck for you
Starlight Lotice
Member
Plot Twist: He doesn't have Air Conditioning and he is playing the game in the Attic on Hard Mode.
H
hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
Plot Twist: He doesn't have Air Conditioning and he is playing the game in the Attic on Hard Mode.
I thought it would only have
HarryKS
Member
Read it again.
Public policy, 2,3,4,5 years from now does not look at details like this. It's not about 'getting it'. It's about verifiable cases.
Dark/Hidden figures do not matter.
It also goes both ways.
longdi
Banned
https://www.scmp.com/coronavirus/gre...be-defenceless
Published: 7:30pm, 21 Jun, 2020
Coronavirus: recovered Chinese patients may be defenceless against foreign mutation, study says
Antibodies found in blood of people who have fought disease failed to stop D614G, Chinese scientists say
Mutant form identified in genetic data of samples collected at Xinfadi food market in Beijing where latest outbreak began
Recovered Covid-19 patients in China may still be vulnerable to a mutant form of the pathogen spreading overseas, a new study says.
According to Professor Huang Ailong from Chongqing Medical University, there is an urgent need to determine what threat the mutation, known as D614G, poses to people who have recovered from a different form of the virus.
D614G began spreading in Europe in early February and by May was the dominant strain around the world, presenting in 70 per cent of sequenced samples in Europe and North America.
Antibodies found in patients who had been infected with earlier forms of the pathogen failed to neutralise the mutant strain, the scientists said in paper published on Biorxiv.org, a preprint website, which means it has not been peer-reviewed.
Since the latest coronavirus outbreak was reported at the Xinfadi wholesale food market in Beijing, 227 new infections have been confirmed and more than 2.3 million residents have been tested for Covid-19 in a bid to contain the spread.
Health authorities identified the infection in a number of locations at the market, including inside the mouths of imported salmon. The whole genome sequencing data of samples from the first three patients have been released and they all contained the D614G mutation.
Huang and his team selected a strain of the virus that had previously circulated in China and then manipulated it to create a man-made version containing the mutation.
They then extracted antibodies from 41 blood samples collected from recovered patients and pitched them against the mutant.
According to a report published last week by Scripps Research, a medical research facility in San Diego, the D614G mutation has the potential to increase the number of spike proteins on the coronavirus and boost its ability to infect human cells by a factor of 10.
However, that estimate was mostly based on computer modelling so questions remained over the possible increase in binding efficiency.
In the Chongqing study, the antibodies generated by three patients failed to suppress the mutated strain, with one sample showing almost zero effect.
The researchers then tried to infect host cells with the mutant and normal strains. The mutant’s entry efficiency was 2.4 times higher.
“This seemingly small increase in entry activity could cause a large difference in viral infectivity in the human body,” they said.
One of the concerns now is that the prevalence of D614G will have a detrimental impact on vaccine development.
Several Chinese vaccine candidates have entered the final phase of clinical trials, but they are based – like those under development in the United States and Europe – on the earliest strains of the coronavirus detected and sequenced in Wuhan.
A study by IBM’s AI medical team in April warned that the D614G mutation could reduce the effectiveness of vaccine programmes that target the virus’ spike protein. A separate study by a team of researchers in Serbia last month came to a similar conclusion.
“Given the evolving nature of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome, antibody treatment and vaccine design might require further consideration to accommodate the D614G and other mutations that may affect the immunogenicity of the virus,” Huang said.
Published: 7:30pm, 21 Jun, 2020
Coronavirus: recovered Chinese patients may be defenceless against foreign mutation, study says
Antibodies found in blood of people who have fought disease failed to stop D614G, Chinese scientists say
Mutant form identified in genetic data of samples collected at Xinfadi food market in Beijing where latest outbreak began
Recovered Covid-19 patients in China may still be vulnerable to a mutant form of the pathogen spreading overseas, a new study says.
According to Professor Huang Ailong from Chongqing Medical University, there is an urgent need to determine what threat the mutation, known as D614G, poses to people who have recovered from a different form of the virus.
D614G began spreading in Europe in early February and by May was the dominant strain around the world, presenting in 70 per cent of sequenced samples in Europe and North America.
Antibodies found in patients who had been infected with earlier forms of the pathogen failed to neutralise the mutant strain, the scientists said in paper published on Biorxiv.org, a preprint website, which means it has not been peer-reviewed.
Since the latest coronavirus outbreak was reported at the Xinfadi wholesale food market in Beijing, 227 new infections have been confirmed and more than 2.3 million residents have been tested for Covid-19 in a bid to contain the spread.
Health authorities identified the infection in a number of locations at the market, including inside the mouths of imported salmon. The whole genome sequencing data of samples from the first three patients have been released and they all contained the D614G mutation.
Huang and his team selected a strain of the virus that had previously circulated in China and then manipulated it to create a man-made version containing the mutation.
They then extracted antibodies from 41 blood samples collected from recovered patients and pitched them against the mutant.
According to a report published last week by Scripps Research, a medical research facility in San Diego, the D614G mutation has the potential to increase the number of spike proteins on the coronavirus and boost its ability to infect human cells by a factor of 10.
However, that estimate was mostly based on computer modelling so questions remained over the possible increase in binding efficiency.
In the Chongqing study, the antibodies generated by three patients failed to suppress the mutated strain, with one sample showing almost zero effect.
The researchers then tried to infect host cells with the mutant and normal strains. The mutant’s entry efficiency was 2.4 times higher.
“This seemingly small increase in entry activity could cause a large difference in viral infectivity in the human body,” they said.
One of the concerns now is that the prevalence of D614G will have a detrimental impact on vaccine development.
Several Chinese vaccine candidates have entered the final phase of clinical trials, but they are based – like those under development in the United States and Europe – on the earliest strains of the coronavirus detected and sequenced in Wuhan.
A study by IBM’s AI medical team in April warned that the D614G mutation could reduce the effectiveness of vaccine programmes that target the virus’ spike protein. A separate study by a team of researchers in Serbia last month came to a similar conclusion.
“Given the evolving nature of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome, antibody treatment and vaccine design might require further consideration to accommodate the D614G and other mutations that may affect the immunogenicity of the virus,” Huang said.
Ornlu
Banned
Sorry, but that logic is flawed. That's like shouting "If you get bit by a dog, your fatality rate is 50%!!!" because 50% of people that go to the hospital for a dog bite may die (not a real scenario), but meanwhile for every dog bite that people visit the hospital for, there are 90 other people who don't bother with the hospital because Snippy The Wonder Chihuahua only caused a small injury.
If 1000 people get the virus and 5 die, that's the real mortality rate, regardless of how many people test positive.
HarryKS
Member
I'm not denying the actual mortality rate. In the absolute, it's lower than 5%.
Still not what's gonna be recorded in history books and what drives public policy. That's what really matters.
Yup, we are still ducked .
Pizdetz
Banned
There was a study by LNAL that basically pointed out similar findings (perhaps this is related to that). Basically as the virus mutates, if the mutation is substantial enough it could undermine vaccine efforts and other therapies:
Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more contagious than original
A mutation in the novel coronavirus has led to a new strain viewed as more contagious than the virus that emerged from China, according to a new study.
www.latimes.com
It can also mean that you're basically dealing with a different enough virus that will cause reinfection.
All these charts don't even measure the real impact it has on health. Many people who "survived" are actually having follow on problems that are lasting weeks or months.
infinitys_7th
Member
Deaths have not increased as infections have increased in either Florida or California. So it is likely a combination of increased testing and, like
diffusionx
said, people who are signficantly less likely to die getting infected.For most people, this virus remains just the flu.
HellforLeather
Member
Edit ROFL bonus woke red pill Dreamgirl hitting all the important subjects
So good
Maybe people will realize how crazy the QAnon shit sounds when you say it out loud. This shit is seriously directly from Parks and Rec; satire is dead.
On a separate note this topic used to be a good source of the most up to date info, now it just seems like a dumping ground for conspiracy theories. and push back on them seems to just be ignored.
Pizdetz
Banned
Deaths have not increased as infections have increased in either Florida or California. So it is likely a combination of increased testing and, like
For most people, this virus remains just the flu.
Yep, the flu that debilitates people afterwards, fills up ICUs at record pace, is far more contagious and far more resilient to warm temperatures. Please remember your mask.
Ornlu
Banned
Which conspiracy theories? That it came from a fish market? That you can't transmit to other humans? That it's just the flu? That it's going to kill everyone? That it kills nobody? Seems like there's all sorts of FUD surrounding the whole topic, so which are the conspiracies?
cryptoadam
Banned
America you needed to be more like this
| AGE GROUP | NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES¹ | DISTRIBUTION OF CASES (%) | RATE PER 100,000 PEOPLE | NUMBER OF DEATHS | RATE OF MORTALITY PER 100,000 PEOPLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 years | 322 | 1.2 | 290.4 | 0 | - |
| 5-9 years | 299 | 1.1 | 276.9 | 0 | - |
| 10-19 years | 1,022 | 3.8 | 513.9 | 0 | - |
| 20-29 years | 3,238 | 12.0 | 1,005.3 | < 5 | n.p. |
| 30-39 years | 3,449 | 12.7 | 1,049.8 | < 5 | n.p. |
| 40-49 years | 3,749 | 13.9 | 1,346.9 | 15 | * 5.4 |
| 50-59 years | 3,404 | 12.6 | 1,326.2 | 63 | 24.5 |
| 60-69 years | 2,353 | 8.7 | 1,086.5 | 209 | 96.5 |
prag16
Banned
The next prong in the multipronged ongoing fear mongering campaign.
Smiles and Cries
seems there is a resurgence of #flubros Like back in the old days, remember, that’s why we have a worldwide pandemic and recession! Just flu.
Petey-o
Member
Seems like we're seeing a slight uptick? Hopefully just noise, though.
Nymphae
Banned
Petey-o
Member
Yeah, both lines saw upticks, though.
I wonder what it looks like for every individual state.
Omega Supreme Holopsicon
Member
There's a new d614g mutation that appears can reinfect even those who were exposed to the earlier version of covid-19, the earlier antibodies don't appear to defend against it.You can start by looking at antibody test results, like in NYC where they estimate about 21% of people have gotten it. That is almost 2 million, but the confirmed case number is about 210,000. You can also look at studies like this,
Study: Initial U.S. COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than believed
A new study concludes that the country's COVID-19 infection rate early on in the pandemic may have been over 80 times greater than originally reported.
we also have lethality from the diamond princess cruise ship and from south korea were testing was very good.
DunDunDunpachi
Patient MembeR
Omega Supreme Holopsicon
Member
The problem has never been the lethality rate. At most it was 1-3% mostly affecting those over 60, barely affecting the young. In south korea I think lethality was around 0.7%. The problem is that initial findings seemed to suggest a 5-7% hospitalization rate. edit : (this could overwhelm the hospitals if the disease was left to run loose, in brazil it appears hospitals are nearly overwhelmed.).
Coronavirus: Hospitals in Brazil's São Paulo 'near collapse'
Public hospitals in São Paulo have reached 90% capacity for emergency beds, the city's mayor warns.
www.bbc.com
Not sure what current estimates are for hospitalization rate.
The video I just posted suggests potential for long term damage even in those with mild symptoms. Also the new mutation apparently can infect even those who've recovered from the earlier strains of covid-19.
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DunDunDunpachi
Patient MembeR
The virus is not even a year on. Considering how must misinformation and outright propaganda has been pumped from the start, I'm not about to take their warnings and estimates at face value all over again. Rumors of reinfection and doubts over future immunity has always been a concern, nearly since the beginning.The problem has never been the lethality rate. At most it was 1-3% mostly affecting those over 60, barely affecting the young. In south korea I think lethality was around 0.7%. The problem is that initial findings seemed to suggest a 5-7% hospitalization rate. edit : (this could overwhelm the hospitals if the disease was left to run loose, in brazil it appears hospitals are nearly overwhelmed.).
Coronavirus: Hospitals in Brazil's São Paulo 'near collapse'
Public hospitals in São Paulo have reached 90% capacity for emergency beds, the city's mayor warns.
Not sure what current estimates are for hospitalization rate.
The video I just posted suggests potential for long term damage even in those with mild symptoms. Also the new mutation apparently can infect even those who've recovered from the earlier strains of covid-19.
cryptoadam
Banned
So they found a new strain that will reinfect us and hospitals are going to collapse. sounds like rewinding to early March.
Just play it on a loop.
But then again all we have to do is where masks and we are protected. Thats why no one at the protests got infected and the surge in the US is all because of Trumps rally in Tulsa 6 days ago.
Wear masks, be outside, steal TVs, tear down statues and no CV can infect you.
Just play it on a loop.
But then again all we have to do is where masks and we are protected. Thats why no one at the protests got infected and the surge in the US is all because of Trumps rally in Tulsa 6 days ago.
Wear masks, be outside, steal TVs, tear down statues and no CV can infect you.
infinitys_7th
Member
The problem has never been the lethality rate. At most it was 1-3% mostly affecting those over 60, barely affecting the young. In south korea I think lethality was around 0.7%. The problem is that initial findings seemed to suggest a 5-7% hospitalization rate. edit : (this could overwhelm the hospitals if the disease was left to run loose, in brazil it appears hospitals are nearly overwhelmed.).
Coronavirus: Hospitals in Brazil's São Paulo 'near collapse'
Public hospitals in São Paulo have reached 90% capacity for emergency beds, the city's mayor warns.
Not sure what current estimates are for hospitalization rate.
The video I just posted suggests potential for long term damage even in those with mild symptoms. Also the new mutation apparently can infect even those who've recovered from the earlier strains of covid-19.
Also from Sweden, which I have talked about pretty extensively. Overall death rate was 0.2-0.8% depending on their estimates of infected, with younger people (<70 YO) having around 2-in-10,000 death rates and older people (>70 YO) having 2-4% death rates.
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DunDunDunpachi
Patient MembeR
At several points I recall smoking conferred some resistance. Buy some cigs too. For your health and the health of your children
- Status