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Sales-Age May 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 6th

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
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ITT, predict for the NPD May 2017 retail period (April 30-May 27, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 6th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 30-May 27, 2017 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, June 8th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted on Monday after E3 on June 19th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in May:
nothing much

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

(April's results not public)
April's #1 predictor
[NSW] 312k
[PS4] 209k
[XB1] 126k
Nintendo said:
According to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States, the Nintendo Switch system was the best-selling video game hardware in the month of April with more than 280,000 units sold.
April 2016 NPD thread
May 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

fermcr

Member
Mar 24, 2017
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250
What's the point of these predictions NPD threads since no official numbers get released?
 
Jun 18, 2014
1,841
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Seoul, South Korea
What's the point of these predictions NPD threads since no official numbers get released?
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living? If that idea does not appeal to you, then I guess there is no point.
 

ethomaz

Member
Mar 19, 2013
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835
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Brazil
What's the point of these predictions NPD threads since no official numbers get released?
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

PS. BTW you are talking with the best predictor of 2017 here :p
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 13, 2013
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I see some predictions for Xbox One to be around 100k this month, wouldnt that be.....like really bad (by Xbox standards). Dont PS4 and XBO both do around 200k on a slow month?
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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That depends on if you think Switch's current sale fluctuations are dictated by the releases for the system that month or how much was shipped.
Shouldn't really matter what we think, we know its supply starved. :p
 

ethomaz

Member
Mar 19, 2013
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That depends on if you think Switch's current sale fluctuations are dictated by the releases for the system that month or how much was shipped.
To be fair I expect Nintendo to ship about the same they shipped in April to US... 250-300k.

I explained before that I believe Nintendo will ship 600-700k WW in the slow months based on 10m forecast... you will only see a boost in Sep to Dec.

But that is a lot of help to predictors and I won't have the same good luck as April.
 

Sangetsu-II

Member
Dec 5, 2014
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That depends on if you think Switch's current sale fluctuations are dictated by the releases for the system that month or how much was shipped.
I do think that Switch sales are dependent on the games that release in the month considering it has a more compact library than other traditional consoles would by now (I personally will buy a Switch when there is backlog of games available so I don't feel like I bought a console for 1-2 games). I also think Nintendo likes to ship more consoles when their big games release. So taking those two things in consideration I think there won't be enough shipments to compare to the previous month but I do think when Arms and Splatoon release there will be.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
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Keep in mind I can't speak for the whole market. For example I don't work for the company that Abdiel does so maybe he's seen something different.

Just my take.
 
Aug 17, 2010
679
0
0
[NSW] 250K
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 100K

Switch only got Minecraft this month right? Don't see it above 250K then.
They may only sell 250k this month, but not because Minecraft is likely its biggest May release. May sales will be based purely on how many systems Nintendo was able to get to retailers since you still can't just buy the thing without luck or a search. Last months shipment was likely lower since they had air shipped systems planned for April during launch month because of demand. In theory, they may have shipped more in May, but it's possible they're holding back some systems for June to be sold alongside the release of Arms.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
430
[NSW] 201K
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 102K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of April and May. Both month are 4 weeks long. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for May to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts
 
Code:
2011
 
Xbox 360 April: 297K / 4 = 74,250
Xbox 360 May: 270K / 4 = 67,500
 
Weekly average down 9%
 
PS3 April: 204K / 4 = 51,000
PS3 May: 175K / 4 = 43,750
 
Weekly average down 14%
 
[B]Notable Events in May[/B]
 
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
L.A. Noire [2 weeks]
Brink [3 weeks]
LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean: The Video Game [3 weeks]
 
[u]PS3[/u]
L.A. Noire [2 weeks]
Brink [3 weeks]
LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean: The Video Game [3 weeks]
 
Code:
2012
 
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000
Xbox 360 May: 160K / 4 = 40,000
 
Weekly average down 32%
 
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000
PS3 May: 125K / 4 = 31,250
 
Weekly average down 27%
 
[B]Notable Events in May[/B]
 
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]
 
[u]PS3[/u]
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]
 
Code:
2013
 
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500
 
Weekly average down 12%
 
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 May: 85K / 4 = 21,250
 
Weekly average down 17%
 
[B]Notable Events in May[/B]
 
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Metro: Last Light [3 weeks]
 
[u]PS3[/u]
Metro: Last Light [3 weeks]
 
Code:
2014
 
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Xbox 360 May: 57K / 4 = 14,250
 
Weekly average down 20%
 
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Xbox One May: 77K / 4 = 19,250
 
Weekly average down 33%
 
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750
PS3 May: 36K / 4 = 9,000
 
Weekly average up 3%
 
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750
PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250
 
Weekly average down 1%
 
[B]Notable Events in May[/B]
 
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Watch Dogs [1 week] [172K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
 
[u]Xbox One[/u]
$399 500GB Standalone SKU Announced For June 9th, May 13th (19 days affect May NPD, 3 weeks)
 
Watch Dogs [1 week] [363K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
 
[u]PS3[/u]
Watch Dogs 500GB Bundle [1 week]
 
Watch Dogs [1 week] [138K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
 
[u]PS4[/u]
Watch Dogs 500GB Bundle [1 week]
 
Watch Dogs [1 week] [583K]
Wolfenstein: The New Order [2 weeks]
 
Code:
2015 
 
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Xbox One May: 140K / 4 = 35,000
 
Weekly average down 25%
 
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 153K / 4 = 38,250
 
Weekly average down 13%
 
[B]Notable Events in May[/B]
 
[u]Xbox One[/u]
April Trade In Deals Ended
 
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB White Bundle $349 [1 week]
 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt [275K][2 weeks]
 
[u]PS4[/u]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]
 
Witcher 3: Wild Hunt  [2 weeks] [420K]
 
Code:
2016
 
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Xbox One May: 107K / 4 = 26,750
 
Weekly average down 36%
 
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 207K / 4 = 51,750
 
Weekly average up 18%
 
[B]Notable Events in May[/B]
 
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Spring Price Drop Ended
$50 Gift Cards All Month
 
Gamestop Deal - Free Game With Any Xbox One Purchased [1 week]
 
DOOM [3 weeks] [244k]
Overwatch [1 week] [158k]
 
[u]PS4[/u]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Xbox One or PS4 (Not an error) and get $250 towards PS4 May 9th - 29th (20 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)
 
Uncharted 4 500GB Limited Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [51K]
 
Uncharted 4 [3 weeks] [828K]
DOOM [3 weeks] [276K]
Overwatch [1 week] [203K]
 
Code:
2017 April Weekly Averages
 
Switch: 280K / 4 weeks = 70,000
PS4: >200K / 4 weeks = >50,000
Xbox One: <128K / 4 weeks = <32,000
 
[B]Notable Events in May[/B]
 
[u]Switch[/u]
Supply constrained
 
Minecraft (Digital) [3 weeks]
 
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Gamestop Deal - 1TB Models $299 May 7th - June 10th (21 days in May NPD, 3 weeks)
Every Retailer - 1TB Models $299 May 21st (No end date)
 
Prey [4 weeks]
Injustice 2 [2 weeks]
 
[u]PS4[/u]
Prey [4 weeks]
Injustice 2 [2 weeks]
Farpoint VR [2 weeks]
 
Notes:
 
Dead month, dead sales. We have now entered the slowest period of the year, please come back in September for healthy numbers, but don't forget to make a stop in June to remind yourself consoles aren't dead (yet).
 
Xbox
The Xbox 360 dropped an average of -18%, with a minimum of -9% (2011) and maximum of -32% (2012).
 
Xbox One has seen pretty slow May's thanks to deals that happened in April and the announcement of the non Kinect SKU in 2014. It is thanks to these that the average drop is -31%, with a minimum of -25% (2015) and maximum of -36% (2016).. This year did not have a massive April sale however, so the drop should be much less than ~30%, otherwise Xbox One will sell less than 100K, and that won't happen. Haha, haha... ha...
 
Playstation
The PS3 actually had a May that was up from April (2014) thanks to the launch of the Watch Dogs bundle. This affects the average as this is very rare to happen, so for the sake of accuracy, it's an outlier, but if it's included, the PS3 averaged a drop of -14%. Without it, the PS3 dropped an average of -19%, with a minimum of -14% (2011) and maximum of -27% (2012).
 
Like the PS3, the PS4 had a major release in May 2016 that gave it a rise of +18% from April 2016, and that was thanks to Uncharted 4 in the middle of the month. Along with the bundle which sold 51K, this is a clear outlier compared to previous May's and this one. Keeping it would mean the PS4 averages a +2% increase from April, which is wrong. 2014 and 2015 saw declines of -1% and -13%, so this year should be in the general ballpark of -~10% from April.
 
Nintendo
Switch is still selling out everything they ship.
 
Not much else to say besides we are now basically guessing how much it has shipped.
 
Recap
May is slooooow from an already slow April. Weekly average drop from April is ~20%.
 
The biggest May ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 675K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 338K in 2007.
 
The biggest May ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 207K in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 again with 197K in 2015.
 

LOCK

Member
Jun 26, 2006
6,265
0
0
In a Dream
[NSW] 260K
[PS4] 175K
[XB1] 100K

Thanks Welfare!

Going to predict this month only because I find the guessing game with Switch sort of hilarious.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Jun 1, 2013
7,410
0
535
[NSW] 250K
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 110K