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MCV rumour: Next Xbox will not have a disc drive, 2013 release

For some reason I actually sort of buy this... especially if Microsoft plans to enter next gen with an ultra-aggressive entry price (which I expect they will).

Amusing to see the polar opposite reactions on GAF between this and the Steam Box thread.
- Do people actively watch DVD movies on their X360s?
- Did people want to buy games on physical media for their Steam box consoles?

Clearly the elephant in the room is the backwards compatibility one but I think if the next Xbox entered the Xbox at an aggressive price point... and I'm talking $199/$299 here (more with Kinect 2)... while still offering multiple ways to purchase new content at retail via cards (ala Vita) or tablet purchasing with transfer capability... and then offered the X360 back catalog (18 months or older) at crazy cheap pricing for downloads... well, there is potential for some interesting scenarios.

It also ensures the ability to launch a product without all of those nasty problems that befell the last system such as disc scratching, DRE issues, etc.

I hope not. I'm going to assume most people have a regular BD/DVD/DivX player. I've been through too many rrod and lensfailures to even look at my 360's disc drive.
 
Internet doesn't allow a system to be fully DD yet.

It's great large metro centres and some countries have great internet but most of the US and Canada have caps and slow speeds still.
 
Also the very idea of cartridges for home consoles is bonkers! Isn't that way more expensive to produce then to press some Blu-rays?
 
Sounds problematic.

What if you don't have the controller with you and want to make an "impulse purchase"?
What if you do have it but there is not enough space?
What if you do have it, it has enough free space but the battery is low?
What if it takes longer to download a game than it is to purchase the physical copy at the desk?

It's much more convenient to just enter the store, buy the disc and leave. And I think DD is all about making it more easy to buy stuff, not complicated.


All valid concerns. I agree a disc is the most convenient and economical way to do this, but just trying to imagine what a flash-based distribution method could look like. I think if the idea was to lead people away from retail to downloading at home, inconveniences of the former might be tolerated by a platform holder.

The only problem with discs though, is just the preowned thing. Unless that's a huge concern I agree that it's sort of stretching to go with the kind of system I'm talking about. But IF it's a big concern and they want to go download-only (either in-store or at home), I think something like that might be a way to do it.
 
Maybe MCV made an error interpreting this rumor: They thought the "Next Xbox" would be "Xbox 3" when their source just meant "next revision of Xbox", and we will see two new Xbox consoles in 2013: A new revision of the 360 with smaller form factor and flash drive and a Xbox 3.
 
So as download caps are increasingly common in the US, people are seriously thinking DD only is viable next year? Forgetting about the rest of the world?
 
No disc, no buy!

Seriously that would be an easy decision. It's also way too early for DD only console considering how many people actually have these consoles connected to the internet, and download caps.

Takes about an hour for an average 1MB/s connection to download a game on steam.
I don't really know what's the difference. If MS can provide a download service as good as Steam, then I don't really think we as users have any grounds to prejudge. We should all wait and see what happens.

I haven't really been following gaming news but wasn't MCV was a reputable news site for these sort of things? I'd like to know.
 
Takes about an hour for an average 1MB/s connection to download a game on steam.
I don't really know what's the difference. If MS can provide a download service as good as Steam, then I don't really think we as users have any grounds to prejudge. We should all wait and see what happens.

I haven't really been following gaming news but wasn't MCV was a reputable news site for these sort of things? I'd like to know.

So was Eurogamer, until they started posting Photoshops from 4chan as confirmed news pieces.
 
That would be a much more sensible approach to retail sales.

Yeah, they do it with point cards now so I fully expect games to take on this format in retail stores. Cheap to make, easy to ship, one time use codes, can be given as gifts, takes up very little shelf space, gives them a large presence at retail and keeps retail in the game, no more used market, etc.

Not sure if I like the idea, but I think it's very likely this happens alongside a massive digital download push. Atleast this way nobody has to carry annoying tablets or memory cards into stores. Personally I like to own physical copies of my media, but I guess things change. Still doesn't help people with small bandwidth caps, like myself.

Quick shop of a likely future for retail:
retail-future.jpg
 
So as download caps are increasingly common in the US, people are seriously thinking DD only is viable next year? Forgetting about the rest of the world?

Who is saying DD-only? MS isn't blind, they have the hard numbers in front of them, after all. And caps will give way to competitors not employing them or offering higher ones. Their future as successful ISPs, however, hinges on online businesses of all types and those are all directly hurt by caps. So, caps might be here and there now, but I don't see it lasting very long in NA and other online-heavy territories.


I see you got yourself in there, gofreak. Nice.
 
I think I already addressed these concerns in my previous posts in this thread. Discs can still happen with an added drive unit, or included with your higher-tier console model. Consumers may still able to go to a retail outlet and buy physical releases, either in dedicated ROM card or disc format or simply on their card which is loaded with game data on-site. A good solid state storage format solution will likely smoke the best existing optical disc option every time, something that developers and players alike will appreciate given the massive increase in memory to fill.

Reasons I see this happening: Retail for disc-based games is dying. People are increasingly used to buying off of a digital storefront, even if it's to order a physical product, chiefly due to convenience. The majority of developers of games next-gen will be smaller ones that produce smaller titles that mostly don't need to be 20Gigs, like bigger budget games (and if they did, they could always be episodic or segmented for speed of product delivery). All games will be on DD channels.

Oh yeah I definitely think that all games you will be able to get in store are also available in DD format.

And there will, of course, be DD only (XBLA++) games.

I also think it's possible there will be 2 main SKU's, a DD only device and a 'traditional' model.

I don't think there will be only a DD device.

And I don't think either device will have a custom flash memory based storage device to buy 'boxed' games on. It just doesn't make any financial sense despite its advantages in terms of performance. It really is $1 media vs $15+ media.

Nor will there be devices at retailers to transfer games on/from/to your stuff, be it new games or 360 back compat games. Those operations are way too complicated and expensive, if only in terms of man hours.
 
I really, really doubt this... but who knows, stranger things have happened.

I just don't see how it could possibly be price feasible vs a dual layer blu-ray.
 
If they have a updated Xbox 360 Sku, would be nice if they slapped that with more RAM and slightly faster parts. Just a little beefier. Would be nice if the BC games offered online would run a tad smoother.
 
If they have a updated Xbox 360 Sku, would be nice if they slapped that with more RAM and slightly faster parts. Just a little beefier. Would be nice if the BC games offered online would run a tad smoother.

Will never happen. Everything works because everything is in spec. This is the reason why your first gen 360 games still work on your slim console.

I believe I have read somewhere that the slim console are in fact slightly faster than the first gen 360 models, but they are throttling it just a bit so everything works just as it supposed to...
 
If this is the strategy that MS are following it seems to me that they might be adopted a stance similar to Sony in so much as they intend to keep the 360 as a viable format and have this new platform exist alongside it.

Making noises about keeping the 360 going for 'years to come' like Sony did with the PS2 might keep their retail partners from going beserk.
 
Will never happen. Everything works because everything is in spec. This is the reason why your first gen 360 games still work on your slim console.

I believe I have read somewhere that the slim console are in fact slightly faster than the first gen 360 models, but they are throttling it just a bit so everything works just as it supposed to...

Well, I was imagining a Wii like scenario. Like imagine a chipset 50% faster with twice the RAM. Playing an old game? Well it throttles down and half the ram is locked out...so you are dealing with an identical piece of kit.
 
I have a feeling this could be what this rumor relates to.

Makes sense to me.

MS releases the new Xbox, discontinues the 360, but in it's place, releases a shrunk down 360 that's DD only for GoD and Arcade games. 1TB HDD, super cheap price, still makes money.

Gives them more presence in the market.
 
Well, I'd be fine with it. I've got the bandwidth and download caps doesn't fly over here. But America still seem to be a third world country when it comes to internet connections so I doubt it'll happen.
 
And I don't think either device will have a custom flash memory based storage device to buy 'boxed' games on. It just doesn't make any financial sense despite its advantages in terms of performance. It really is $1 media vs $15+ media.

Well, why are we assuming every game has to be these tens of gigabytes in size, when the reality today is that most of the popular titles are all pretty damn small? They can still one-off smaller cards for smaller, but still popular games while larger titles will stay on disc and DD only. There's room for two read-only options, I think.

Nor will there be devices at retailers to transfer games on/from/to your stuff, be it new games or 360 back compat games. Those operations are way too complicated and expensive, if only in terms of man hours.
Sure, it's a bit of a pie in the sky idea, though the rapid growth of Redbox and other kiosks over the course of four years proves that this could happen. The cost may be justified to the first party due to what they calculate they'll 'lose' with a used games market and more convenient piracy involved. Hell, what's stopping Redbox from partnering with one or all of the platform-holders to offer this service?
 
Well, if this happens I'm screwed. My bandwidth cap is small, and all the internet competitors in my area recently put caps on their services as well.
 
I think the games being on SD cards would be a great idea.

Even a game as massive as Skyrim was only 4GB in size. SD cards go up to 64GB right now with pretty good bandwidth to boot.

It means we'd get a tiny console with no moving parts so reliability should be a given. Our games library would also be very portable.

Sounds awesome to me.
 
Lol, I'll stick with the PS4 and Wii U then next gen, not even joking.

Fuck DD only. I like my discs.

Edit: Ok, if games are on some solid state media, I would be game.
 
Soooo is everyone completely ignoring the first few posts of the thread?

It wont be DD only.

Most likely Disc or Card.
 
Cheaper, smaller base SKU with HDD and no optical drive. External optical drive (Blu Ray) or larger more expensive secondary SKU with built in drive available.

Retailers selling game cards for downloads as primary with smaller stock of optical versions for those of you not ready to embrace the future. ;)

That would work nicely for me.
 
Good luck with emerging markets MS

I was going to buy X3 but now, my money is on PS4.

Glad to know. I make my decisions without knowing what the final product is going to be like too.

But seriously, I'd love for MS to go with bluray instead but if they did their research and DD is an effective format then go for it..I'm willing to try it.
 
Good luck with emerging markets MS

I was going to buy X3 but now, my money is on PS4.

Good point.

Perhaps not an issue 12/18 months after launch but 3 or 4 years down the line this could be a huge issue if MS intended to expand the consoles market.
 
Steam box - everybody wants
Xbox with dd only - nobody wants

Hmm



Hey, maybe the steam box *is* the next Xbox... :p
 
For some reason I actually sort of buy this... especially if Microsoft plans to enter next gen with an ultra-aggressive entry price (which I expect they will).

Amusing to see the polar opposite reactions on GAF between this and the Steam Box thread.
- Do people actively watch DVD movies on their X360s?
- Did people want to buy games on physical media for their Steam box consoles?

Clearly the elephant in the room is the backwards compatibility one but I think if the next Xbox entered the Xbox at an aggressive price point... and I'm talking $199/$299 here (more with Kinect 2)... while still offering multiple ways to purchase new content at retail via cards (ala Vita) or tablet purchasing with transfer capability... and then offered the X360 back catalog (18 months or older) at crazy cheap pricing for downloads... well, there is potential for some interesting scenarios.

It also ensures the ability to launch a product without all of those nasty problems that befell the last system such as disc scratching, DRE issues, etc.


The difference being one company is aggressive with pricing and one is not. If all console games could be purchased for under 9.99 within 6 months or so, I'm sure the vast majority of people would love a console centric DD system. What are the odds of that? Pretty effing slim.

Even the DD indie titles on those services, which have no retail prices they have to "protect", almost never get deep discounts. Heavy sales are routine on Steam and the foundation for people's love of the store.
 
A system not incorporating a disc drive I would appreciate, based on several reasons:

  • Retailers could increase profits decreasing decrement due to the fact that games would have to be packaged in one or more of three SKUs (that I can think of anyway):
    As a redeemable code, similar to the Pre-Paid Game Card for World of Warcraft. The SKU looks like an ordinary game package but features a card/sheet with a code instead of a disc.​
    Microsoft Points - Game packages are no longer featured in stores, instead if you want to purchase a game, you will need Microsoft Points which you use to download games.​
    Through an in-store game kiosk, and customers use a flash card or other storage unit to transfer games.​
    Out of these, I'd say that the first option is the most reasonable. Merchants will still be able to utilize proven shelf management and space elasticity theories, but they do not have to worry about customers knocking game packes to the floor and thus causing damage, as the redeemable code would be fitted onto a card or sheet of some kind. And with less movable parts to think about, game packages can be made smaller. A regular keep case is 190mm high and 135mm wide, with a typical thickness of 15mm. Length and width could be maintained here for path dependence, but thickness could be decreased to 5mm (that's the thickness of the World of Warcraft 60 Day Pre-Paid Time Card). Smaller packages almost always equal reduced production costs, the exception is if production facilities need to upgrade equipment for new processes, but this won't be necessary if Microsoft chooses a solution like this.

    If Microsoft is going for highest profitability though, a solution with Microsoft Points is the way to go. Cards and packaging for these should be very inexpensive, and as very large quantities would have to be produced, bulk discount is most certainly applied. For video game stores, fitting all available shelf shape with Microsoft Points would however be unfavorable, so something more has to be done here, and this could be in the form of some kind of interactive experience where customers can browse games available for Xbox Durango. This can be done using a Durango demo unit. For certain periods, like the holidays and Black Friday, there could also be SKUs for a certain game, such as for Halo Reach with the 2100 Points (and banshee avatar prop) implementation launched in November 2010. A system like this would also significate a store's ability to always, indirectly, offer all concurrent games for Xbox Durango, as long as Microsoft doesn't delete something from the servers the game data is housed on.

  • Increased security for the end customer, as discs that can be scratched are no longer present. While satisfaction related to feelings of ownership may not be as applicable here as when a user manually inserts a game disc, I believe the majority of the audience would find relief in not having to worry about scratching discs, and thus it evens out. Furthermore, as a system like this would probably be account based, users should be able to at any given time delete a purchased game from the storage unit (disk drive etc.) but be able to download it again and again on a later point; actual disc games you can lose (they can also end up in the laundry, refrigerator etc. and eventually become not salvageable), with this solution you are less likely to lose your opportunity to play the games. Even if the console should experience some system error and become eligible for repair, you'd still be able to continue playing your games either on a separate unit or when your unit returns, as long as Microsoft vouches for you keeping a printed copy of login credentials, and eventually redeemed game codes as well.
Ordinarily, a system not featuring a disc drive imposes a few problems as well. Most importantly, download speeds. Not everyone has access to a broadband connection, and even with 100 Mbps Ethernet, it would take about an hour to download a game (if we expect it at a size of 50 GB). Going from inserting a game and having it ready in a few seconds to waiting a whole hour (or up to 88 days with a 56 Kbps connection) to play, I don't think the majority would accept.

Next, we have the problems with used games and the blue dahlia scenario for key retailers such as GameStop to stock these for Xbox Durango. Would such retailers even carry the system if they cannot continue their marketing of used games because of it?

And finally, what kind of disk drive sizes are we talking here? If download speeds encountered are indeed for the majority not very high, I assume most would want to download as many games as possible and store them locally, in opposition to having perhaps five games (each of 50 GB) at any given time but deleting and switching between titles when you want something new. I don't have that many games for Xbox 360, but I know some players pack something around 50-100 titles. Let's say these games vary in size from 30-100 GB, that would theoretically require a disk drive with a capacity of 3-10 TB. That's quite much, especially the upper end, even for the PC market.

I can see both pros and cons with this, I personally would prefer a disc free system, but I have a feeling that there would be a rather great opposition to such. The next generation with all its promises I'm eagerly awaiting.
 
Still deliver games on disc at retail, but that's just an alternative to download, the gme would still be fully installed and registered online. Basically how steamworks games work at retail.

Maybe if you don't have the optical drive model you can install over your home network from a pc, like MacBook air
 
Still deliver games on disc at retail, but that's just an alternative to download, the gme would still be fully installed and registered online. Basically how steamworks games work at retail.

Maybe if you don't have the optical drive model you can install over your home network from a pc, like MacBook air

Windows 8 Exclusive (Gold members only)
 
Rösti;35871159 said:
And finally, what kind of disk drive sizes are we talking here? If download speeds encountered are indeed for the majority not very high, I assume most would want to download as many games as possible and store them locally, in opposition to having perhaps five games (each of 50 GB) at any given time but deleting and switching between titles when you want something new. I don't have that many games for Xbox 360, but I know some players pack something around 50-100 titles. Let's say these games vary in size from 30-100 GB, that would theoretically require a disk drive with a capacity of 3-10 TB. That's quite much, especially the upper end, even for the PC market.

I can see both pros and cons with this, I personally would prefer a disc free system, but I have a feeling that there would be a rather great opposition to such. The next generation with all its promises I'm eagerly awaiting.

The average game size today is less than 4 GB. The reason why BD discs can be filled up is because of redundant data to decrease loading times.
 
Steam box - everybody wants
Xbox with dd only - nobody wants
Well, compare Games on Demand pricing and sales with Steam pricing and sales. Then add paying for online on top of that.

Preferring one over the other seems perfectly rational at that point.
 
Do it MS.

physical media can suck it anyway. make it as good as steam and I'm onboard.

better launch that shit with halo though, that should convince the 'NOBUY!' people.
 
Well, compare Games on Demand pricing and sales with Steam pricing and sales. Then add paying for online on top of that.

Preferring one over the other seems perfectly rational at that point.

Comparing now with a potential future is a bit useless I think. And most people did bring other arguments, that could have been said about the SteamBox too.
 
Well, compare Games on Demand pricing and sales with Steam pricing and sales. Then add paying for online on top of that.

Preferring one over the other seems perfectly rational at that point.

Valve has proved they can provide a profitable dd business model that plays fair.

I love MS. I love my 360. But I will probably jump out of my window before I'll buy a DD copy of game on my 360. The prices set are by no means a representation of the store prices. Games you can get for 20$ are 50$ and games that are 50$ in retail are 70$.
 
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