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Media Create Sales 10/15 - 10/21 2007

Lobster

Banned
Parl said:
I'm no 360 fan, but I think 360 has a relatively bright future in Japan. Although, this year has been bigger than last year. Next year, 360 may rise again.

Yes I agree, it could sell 1 million by the next gen.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
GreenGlowingGoo said:
He's talking about predictions on blind faith. The difference between the wii two years ago and the ps3 now is that we have a past and a present. You can use a past and a present to make predictions based off past trends, which has nothing to do with blind faith.

For example. You see Steve. And you want to predict how high Steve can jump, now before you ever see Steve jump you can say he will jump 10 feet into the air, and the other person says 6 feet. Both would be predictions on blind faith. now let's say you have watched Steve jump 183 times, and each jump has been between 6 to 7 feet high. Now, if you suddenly predicted that Steve will jump 10 feet, while somebody else predicts 6 feet, which of the two of you would be prediction on blind faith?

What do you mean with past and a present? 2 years ago Nintendo had a past and a present. They've been releasing consoles since 1983. To use your example:

You see Nintendo. And you want to predict how many Wii consoles Nintendo can sell, now before you ever see Wii being launched you can say Nintendo will sell 10 million within the first year, and the other person says 3 million. Both would be predictions on blind faith. Now let's say you have watched Nintendo selling consoles since 1983, and each console have been selling less than the other, Gamecube selling slowest of them all and that PSX and PS2 has been dominating the market for the last 8 years (its 10 years, but we're 2 years back in time now). Now, if you suddenly predicted that Nintendo will sell 10 million, while somebody else predicts 3 million, which of the two of you would be prediction on blind faith?

Also, i'm not the one who mentioned blind faith, that was BishopLamont. I'm not the one who mentioned 12 million PS3 sold within 4 years, that was also BishopLamont. So its mystery to me why he say i shouldnt talk about this when hes the one who brought it up and started talking about it hehe :p I guess he thought what i was saying was that PS3 will be number 1 in Japan within the years to come, but i've never said anything like that.

All i was saying was that PS3 isnt Gamecube. I never said anything that i belived PS3 would be number 1 and sell 12 million consoles within 4 years. BishopLamont brought those 2 things up. PS3 and GC are 2 different consoles being released at 2 different times. You can pull lines between them and compare them up today's date, but to use todays situation and say how it will be in 4 years is impossible. Time changes, simple as that.



BishopLamont said:
What he said. We know the Wii has upcoming software (Wii Fit) that will keep it's sales number at a decent pace of 20-30k. We know of none that will increase the PS3 beyond the usual 10-15k. EOJ bombed and that's something that would appeal to the casual.

We dont know that, we predict that =) I dont disagree with that WiiFit might keep the Wii sales at 20-30k (or even more) a week for quite some time. Its already at ~20k even without WiiFit so theres a big chance for that to happend ye, but we dont know for sure or for how long. I have to disagree that EoJ is a casual game. Its a card game with fantasy creatures that fight. I havnt seen many moms playing Heros of Might and Magic for example. But that is another discussion.

As said earlier, i never said that i thought PS3 would sell 12 million consoles and be number 1 in Japan within 4 years. You was the one who brought up the 12 million. All i said is that time changes and things can happend. It can be a very unpredicatble market. 4 years is a long time.



donny2112 said:
Things can make a dramatic change at generation transitions. During a generation is a much less likely occurrence, and I really can't think of one with the magnitude of what's being discussed for the PS3 in Japan.

Maybe less likely to happend, but its not impossible :) All i'm saying is that PS3 isnt GC and that their faith will be the same is not a given just because the situation looks like today. Its still years to go. I also hope people dont read this as me saying "PS3 will sell 12 millions within 4 years and rule Japan once again!" :p Because thats not what i'm saying at all. I'm talking in genereal, things can change. I dont have any really insight or belives what will happend in 4 years when it comes to console sales. Sure, i do have my thoughts, guesses and belives around it, but 4 years is a long time, its so much that can happend.
 

Shiggy

Member
wsippel said:
I hope it'll do well in Europe. Point'n'click adventures used to be very successful in Europe back in the day. Especially Germans love their old-school adventures it seems, and Germany is Nintendo land. Too bad it's not exactly a huge or important market for console games, though...

I think it will perform better in Europe than elsewhere as NoE is the publisher, i.e. that there will be enough copies available (ok, after MP3 I've got some doubts...) ;)
 

Parl

Member
Lobster said:
Yes I agree, it could sell 1 million by the next gen.

I'm rooting for 1 million by the end of next year. It's an unpopular theory, but I think that chances are high enough for me to not be surprised if it achieved that.. nor will I be surprised if it didn't.
 

donny2112

Member
ethelred said:
Are you sure? I'm 95% positive that was in fact the best price version.

You are correct. I was going off of my original translation for it which left off the "(BEST)" part.

GEIMIN.NET said:
133位 GBA『MOTHER1+2(ベスト版)』(任天堂)
 

jarrod

Banned
test_account said:
According to this site it does. But nevertheless, a sequel didnt come. Capcom could have funded it :p Afaik Cadillacs & Dinosaurs (not counting that Sega CD release), Magic Sword (not exactly a beat em' up, but still) and Knights of the Round never got sequels.
C&D = licensed IP

KOTR actually *is* the sequel to Magic Sword too. :p
 

test_account

XP-39C²
jarrod said:
C&D = licensed IP

KOTR actually *is* the sequel to Magic Sword too. :p

I know about C&D, i wrote it earlier in this thread:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8386884&postcount=532

How u figure KOTR is the sequel to Magic Sword? Magic Sword is a platformer. Its been quite some time since i've played through Magic Sword, but the story is about stopping some evil monster from using an orb that will remove all light from the earth or so. When you beat the last boss you could also choose if you wanted to destroy the orb or use it yourself.

KOTR is a beat em' up, not a platformer like Magic Sword. The story in KOTR is about King Arthur finding the Legendary Grail to stop evil in the world. Both games are about stopping evil tho, but what game back in the day wasnt about that hehe. Afaik none of the main characters in Magic Sword are playable in KORT too, so i dont see how KORT could be a sequel to Magic Sword.
 

Salazar

Member
Xeke said:
Maybe people just don't want the PS3. Is that impossible...?

By making the PlayStation the only console with Tomb Raider II, Sony Computer Entertainment was able to benefit by attracting new PlayStation owners leveraging Tomb Raider as a killer application and using Lara Croft as a marketing character alongside Sony's own first party characters

I'd be angry and out of pocket, but I'd be there if history repeated.
 
Well, more than 500 posts after first day sales post....I wonder if we can return to other matters? :lol

In other words, I just feel like predicting something...for Mario week:
100k > Wii >> X360 > PS3

Oh, and Monster Hunter Portable 2nd is around 17k away from outselling Super Smash Bros DX (biggest GCN seller), and it sold little over 6k in the latest Famitsu top30, although we probably won't see it again until a 2007 Top100 or something. Man, it would be so cool to see trackers give away numbers for weekly top50 during the Christmas period...
 
test_account said:
long post.

They'll both be blind faith, you can't predict how much it'll sell until it's on the market. Just because it's predecessor was market leader, does not mean it will be market leader too. Look at SNES > N64 > GC. Oh and I didn't say you said 12M in 4 years, that joke of a character guy did. I merely quoted you because you seem to be defending his blind faith.
 

Verve

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
In other words, I just feel like predicting something...for Mario week:
100k > Wii >> X360 > PS3

i really don't know: is there anything important coming out for X360 in mario week or why should it cross streams with ps3 in your opinion?
 
charlequin said:
Nope. If a game did well compared to other GCN games, but still shitty overall, it did shitty overall. Tales of Symphonia did quite well for a third-party GameCube game, but still shitty for a Tales game.
As long as there is no absolute measure of when a game becomes successful (say, 300K to pick a number familiar to these threads), success will always be a relative thing, usually either to market size or cost of production. Was Tales on GCN less successful than Tales on PS2 (in Japan)? Yes. Was every game on PS2 less successful than it would've been on a theoretical console with a 40 million userbase? Probably. If "less successful than it could've been under other circumstances" means the same as "not a success", nothing will be viewed as a success.
 
Verve said:
i really don't know: is there anything important coming out for X360 in mario week or why should it cross streams with ps3 in your opinion?
Ace Combat 6 + Pricedrop on old SKUs + Elite push + Lots of budget re-releases + Week before 40GB PS3

I think I read (at shinobi's blog iirc) that there was going to be a bigger Elite shipment in that week...Elite launch shipment was very small (like 5000).
 

ccbfan

Member
Parl said:
I'm rooting for 1 million by the end of next year. It's an unpopular theory, but I think that chances are high enough for me to not be surprised if it achieved that.. nor will I be surprised if it didn't.


I think one thing thats really going to head into the 360's favor is that there's no dominate home console for 3rd parties in Japan.

I expect a lot more support from Japanese companies based on sales in NA and Europe.

Announcements like DMC and AC is only the beginning. I have a feeling MSG4 and FFXIII are going to be next. There's just too much money for Konomi and SE to lose to take a chance on the PS3 especially with the 360's software dominance in the west. MSG4 is another game that fits the mode of a multi-million seller on the 360. FFXIII would surprise people on how well it'll do compared to previous 360 jrpgs. REmember we're talking about a final fantasy. In the west there's final fantasy and there's jrpgs. The two has no correlation concerning sales. FF is a core gamer's game (much like MSG, RE, DMC, Halo, MAdden, GT, ect). JRPGs are a hardcore gamer's game in the west.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
BishopLamont said:
They'll both be blind faith, you can't predict how much it'll sell until it's on the market. Just because it's predecessor was market leader, does not mean it will be market leader too. Look at SNES > N64 > GC.

True that, just look at PS2 -> PS3, from huge market leader to 3rd place (worldwide). But my point was that things years ahead cant be predicted, even with logical thinking or evidence on today's situation, even if the console is out on the market or not. Well.. it can be predicted of course, but the outcome is not certaint what will happend. Thats why i mentioned the things in my previous posts, about Nintendo consoles selling less for every generation etc. Looking at those facts and situation then, and judging by them, it was sorta unthinkable that they would be market leader today. Just like its unthinkable that PS3 will boost their hardware sale alot during the years to come and maybe regain the number 1 spot.

BishopLamont said:
Oh and I didn't say you said 12M in 4 years, that joke of a character guy did. I merely quoted you because you seem to be defending his blind faith.

Ah ok. I didnt really read all the other posts, i just saw you said 12 millions in 4 year when you quoted me on something. No no, i didnt defend anyone, i was just talking about how things can change during time and that PS3 and GC are 2 different consoles that can have 2 different outcomes eventho the situation today looks simular. I'm not predicting that PS3 will sell 12 millions within 4 years since that would take quite some changes to make that happend, but i'm not totally ruling it out. Sony is a big company, who knows if they're able to drop the price at the right time and score some killer exclusives when its really needed. We'll see :)
 
ccbfan said:
I think one thing thats really going to head into the 360's favor is that there's no dominate home console for 3rd parties in Japan.
.

The 360 would have to sell better then the PS3 to be dominate in 3rd party sales... which will never happen in japan.. any third party multi plat game released in japan will sale much better on the PS3.. no brainer... its almost like the 360 doesent exist there... if ever FF13 was released on 360 and PS3 in japan.. the 360 version would sale way below expectations...making a port pointless

also SE is looking at RPG sales on the 360.. there not that great...why should they even bother when they can just focus on 1 console where there fans are.. Most of the 360's fanbase Dont play RPG's there FPS fans... look at the attach rate
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
As long as there is no absolute measure of when a game becomes successful (say, 300K to pick a number familiar to these threads), success will always be a relative thing, usually either to market size or cost of production. Was Tales on GCN less successful than Tales on PS2 (in Japan)? Yes. Was every game on PS2 less successful than it would've been on a theoretical console with a 40 million userbase? Probably. If "less successful than it could've been under other circumstances" means the same as "not a success", nothing will be viewed as a success.

Well, we can wax poetic about what a success "really" is... but none of the major third party titles on Gamecube were successful. Resident Evil and Tales both fled the platform due to dramatically poor sales. If you were a publisher and you had a product on tap that wasn't a licensed anime fighting game, it did better on PS2 -- and you demonstrated this by moving the titles to PS2.

This is really the crux of my point: there are a lot of series that did well in Japan on GBA, series which generally have carried over that momentum to DS (and helped other series in similar genres thanks to their penumbra effect.) Wii doesn't have the benefit of such series: there's nothing third-party you can point to and say "well, that'll do well on Wii because it did so well on GCN" (except, again, licensed anime games.)
 

ccbfan

Member
Phoenix Down said:
The 360 would have to sell better then the PS3 to be dominate in 3rd party sales... which will never happen in japan.. any third party multi plat game released in japan will sale much better on the PS3.. no brainer... its almost like the 360 doesent exist there... if ever FF13 was released on 360 and PS3 in japan.. the 360 version would sale way below expectations...making a port pointless

also SE is looking at RPG sales on the 360.. there not that great...why should they even bother when they can just focus on 1 console where there fans are.. Most of the 360's fanbase Dont play RPG's there FPS fans... look at the attach rate


Did you even bother to read the rest of my post or did you just read 1 line and ignore the rest that explains it?
 
Phoenix Down said:
also SE is looking at RPG sales on the 360.. there not that great...why should they even bother when they can just focus on 1 console where there fans are.. Most of the 360's fanbase Dont play RPG's there FPS fans... look at the attach rate

FFXIV to DS confirmed.
 
test_account said:
True that, just look at PS2 -> PS3, from huge market leader to 3rd place (worldwide). But my point was that things years ahead cant be predicted, even with logical thinking or evidence on today's situation. Well.. it can be predicted of course, but the outcome is not certaint what will happend. Thats why i mentioned the things in my previous posts, about Nintendo consoles selling less for every generation etc. Looking at those facts and situation then, and judging by them, it was sorta unthinkable that they would be market leader today. Just like its unthinkable that PS3 will boost their hardware sale alot during the years to come and maybe regain the number 1 spot.
One is predicting a race's outcome before it starts. Another is predicting a race's outcome after it's begun and one competitor has lapped another multiple times.
Phoenix Down said:
The 360 would have to sell better then the PS3 to be dominate in 3rd party sales... which will never happen in japan.. any third party multi plat game released in japan will sale much better on the PS3.. no brainer... its almost like the 360 doesent exist there... if ever FF13 was released on 360 and PS3 in japan.. the 360 version would sale way below expectations...making a port pointless
His point is, as long as third party success is negligible for both in the East, more decisions will be based upon what's going on in the larger western markets.
charlequin said:
Well, we can wax poetic about what a success "really" is... but none of the major third party titles on Gamecube were successful. Resident Evil and Tales both fled the platform due to dramatically poor sales. If you were a publisher and you had a product on tap that wasn't a licensed anime fighting game, it did better on PS2 -- and you demonstrated this by moving the titles to PS2.
Isn't that just the definition of the market leader? It seems pointless to say that all games on secondary or tertiary platforms are failures. If they were, they wouldn't bother releasing them once the market positions were clear.
This is really the crux of my point: there are a lot of series that did well in Japan on GBA, series which generally have carried over that momentum to DS (and helped other series in similar genres thanks to their penumbra effect.) Wii doesn't have the benefit of such series: there's nothing third-party you can point to and say "well, that'll do well on Wii because it did so well on GCN" (except, again, licensed anime games.)
I don't think that's valid for any current systems, though, really. Success on PS2 doesn't imply success on PS3/PSP, and DS and Wii are so successful because they're not defined by the same things as their predecessors.
 

ethelred

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Isn't that just the definition of the market leader? It seems pointless to say that all games on secondary or tertiary platforms are failures. If they were, they wouldn't bother releasing them once the market positions were clear.

No, that's not true across the board. Look at the PSP. There are plenty of third party games we can look at and not just say "These are good third party sales for the PSP," but "These sales are really good comparable to how this game/series would have done/did do on a market leading platform."

Monster Hunter 1 and 2 on PSP both way outperformed the PS2 games. Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, sold comparably to some of the top-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs -- it'll end its run second only to Final Fantasy Tactics, and frankly we all know the game wouldn't have sold like that on the DS. The PSP's Tales of the World game outsold all the GBA's Tales of the World games, and the PSP Tales ports outsold the GBA's Tales of Phantasia port.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
JoshuaJSlone said:
One is predicting a race's outcome before it starts. Another is predicting a race's outcome after it's begun and one competitor has lapped another multiple times.

Well.. ye, but in the end both are predictions. Point is, things can change, nothing is impossible :)
 

Galactic Fork

A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
test_account said:
What do you mean with past and a present? 2 years ago Nintendo had a past and a present. They've been releasing consoles since 1983. To use your example:

You see Nintendo. And you want to predict how many Wii consoles Nintendo can sell, now before you ever see Wii being launched you can say Nintendo will sell 10 million within the first year, and the other person says 3 million. Both would be predictions on blind faith. Now let's say you have watched Nintendo selling consoles since 1983, and each console have been selling less than the other, Gamecube selling slowest of them all and that PSX and PS2 has been dominating the market for the last 8 years (its 10 years, but we're 2 years back in time now). Now, if you suddenly predicted that Nintendo will sell 10 million, while somebody else predicts 3 million, which of the two of you would be prediction on blind faith?


It's funny how you talk about the Playstation dominating for 8 years, but fail to put in that Nintendo had dominated before that for longer and still got pushed away by Sony who came out of nowhere in the gaming industry. And the recent success of Nintendo in the handheld market against Playstation when Nintendo dropped their big gameboy brand but still dominated.

Brand dominance changes easily from one generation to the next, but that is rarely the case within a generation, which we are in.


test_account said:
Also, i'm not the one who mentioned blind faith, that was BishopLamont. I'm not the one who mentioned 12 million PS3 sold within 4 years, that was also BishopLamont. So its mystery to me why he say i shouldnt talk about this when hes the one who brought it up and started talking about it hehe :p I guess he thought what i was saying was that PS3 will be number 1 in Japan within the years to come, but i've never said anything like that.

The reason I responded to you before is that you were somehow equating guesses before the generation started and predictions now. There is a big difference.

test_account said:
All i was saying was that PS3 isnt Gamecube. I never said anything that i belived PS3 would be number 1 and sell 12 million consoles within 4 years. BishopLamont brought those 2 things up. PS3 and GC are 2 different consoles being released at 2 different times. You can pull lines between them and compare them up today's date, but to use todays situation and say how it will be in 4 years is impossible. Time changes, simple as that.

Actually, you're right, I'd honestly compare the PS3 to the N64 way before I'd ever compare it to the gamecube.
 
here he comes
here comes ethelred
he's a demon with words
he's a demon and he's going to be rebutting somebody

go ethelred
go ethelred
go ethelred gooo
 

Parl

Member
ethelred said:
Monster Hunter 1 and 2 on PSP both way outperformed the PS2 games. Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, sold comparably to some of the top-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs -- it'll end its run second only to Final Fantasy Tactics, and frankly we all know the game wouldn't have sold like that on the DS. The PSP's Tales of the World game outsold all the GBA's Tales of the World games, and the PSP Tales ports outsold the GBA's Tales of Phantasia port.

It would've been a different game on DS. Much worse graphics, and therefore a different game. A much lower budget game, which was also a remake, FF3 sold more, didn't it not?

The DS game would've sold less because of DS being really competitive when it comes to RPGs and worse graphics (so a notably different product anyway). Also, CC had a higher perceived quality than many spin-offs of FF have done, so I think the game was less successful than it could have been elsewhere.
 

ksamedi

Member
Parl said:
It would've been a different game on DS. Much worse graphics, and therefore a different game. A much lower budget game, which was also a remake, FF3 sold more, didn't it not?

The DS game would've sold less because of DS being really competitive when it comes to RPGs and worse graphics (so a notably different product anyway). Also, CC had a higher perceived quality than many spin-offs of FF have done, so even with everything it had going against it, I think the game was less successful than it could have been elsewhere.

Wow you took the words out of my mouth. Crisis Core should have sold better.
 
"Would have done" is always a guessing game, though. If they hadn't released Tales of Symphonia on PS2, we wouldn't have a comparison by which to say the GCN version was less successful than. Similarly we don't have a DS Monster Hunter/Crisis Core/Tales of Phantasia to directly compare the PSP games with.

Resident Evil was less successful on GCN than PS1, but it was also less successful on PS2 than PS1. Series have their ups and downs over time. Some are more successful on portables than home consoles. Knowing that certain games are less or more successful than their predecessors on another system doesn't make that success primarily a function of either specific platform.
 

ethelred

Member
ksamedi said:
Wow you took the words out of my mouth. Crisis Core should have sold better.

Right, right. I know in Hypothetical Nintendo Candy Land Fantasy World, Crisis Core came out on the DS and sold 5 million copies because of how hugely fanboyish towards Cloud x Sephie the stylus fanbase is. Here in Real World, though, it's still one of the best-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever created, even comparing its performance to market leading platforms like the PSX, the PS2, and the NDS; its sales are consistent with how a top-of-the-line Final Fantasy spinoff should sell. Anyone who latches onto it as some sort of underachiever is, I regret to say, pushing an agenda bigger than the iceberg what sunk the Titanic.

JoshuaJSlone said:
"Would have done" is always a guessing game, though. If they hadn't released Tales of Symphonia on PS2, we wouldn't have a comparison by which to say the GCN version was less successful than. Similarly we don't have a DS Monster Hunter/Crisis Core/Tales of Phantasia to directly compare the PSP games with.

We can't compare the PSP's Monster Hunter performance with that of the PS2? We can't compare Tales of Phantasia's PSP performance (or, again, the various Tales of the World games) to that of the GBA? Surely those count as market leading platforms as well -- surely, at the very least, the PS2 is? Your statement was that by definition a market leading platform is going to engender better sales for various third party games, but that isn't the case as here I'm pointing to a bunch of third party games and series that thrived on perpetually second place PSP.

We can't compare Crisis Core to Crisis Core DS (thank god), but we can look at how every single Final Fantasy spinoff has done on another system. While none leads to a direct comparison, there's still enough broad information about the subseries and its trending to tell us enough -- that Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, had outsold a lot of its brethren and didn't just achieve "good for the system" sales but "great for the series in general" sales.

If you're a publisher or a developer, you're going to have to actually stop and think about whether to put your game on the market leading platform this time around (DS or Wii) or whether you'd be better going with one of the secondary platforms, as unusually enough, they may well be better choices. That was never a consideration the GameCube warranted, as demonstrated by the PS2 rightly being installed as the default, "don't even need to think about it" choice.
 
ccbfan said:
Did you even bother to read the rest of my post or did you just read 1 line and ignore the rest that explains it?

Yes i did but i thought it was very silly and redundant... this forum has allready had enough of MGS4/FF13 on 360.. AC and DMC have nothing to do with those 2 games..nor did will they sway the decision of other companies
 

test_account

XP-39C²
GreenGlowingGoo said:
It's funny how you talk about the Playstation dominating for 8 years, but fail to put in that Nintendo had dominated before that for longer and still got pushed away by Sony who came out of nowhere in the gaming industry. And the recent success of Nintendo in the handheld market against Playstation when Nintendo dropped their big gameboy brand but still dominated.

I dont quite see what you mean with this. We were talking about how the situation was 2 years before Wii was released, that would be somewhere around 2004. Nintendo did not dominate in 2004 so why should i mention Nintendo's domination back in the late 80's and to some extend in the early 90's? That is irrelevant to this example. Handheld is a different marked and Nintendo has dominated that since the release of Gameboy in 1990 (maybe you can even count Game & Watch from the early 80's too). But that is a different discussion.

GreenGlowingGoo said:
Brand dominance changes easily, from one generation to the next, but that is rarely the case within a generation, which we are in.

So far this has seem to be the case, but history doesnt always repeat itself. These times are different from the other times. If it will happend again is totally possible of course, but its not a given.


GreenGlowingGoo said:
The reason I responded to you before is that you were somehow equating guesses before the generation started and predictions now. There is a big difference.

My point was that you could use logic and evidence already back in 2004 that Nintendo Wii wouldnt dominate this generation (so far atleast), just like you can use logic and evidence today that PS3 wont sell i.e 12 million within 4 years. I agree that its a different thing, but the main thing is still the same, using evidence and logic on today's situation to predict the future.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Isn't that just the definition of the market leader?

No, only when the market leader is so thoroughly, unquestionably dominating as PS2. The DS is the portable market leader, but certain titles are successful on PSP -- FF7:CC is a great example. Or look at the US, where some third-party GameCube titles were successful -- Tales of Symphonia, Harvest Moon AWL, and Soul Calibur II being some of the notable examples.

I don't think that's valid for any current systems, though, really. Success on PS2 doesn't imply success on PS3/PSP, and DS and Wii are so successful because they're not defined by the same things as their predecessors.

It's not the only factor, certainly; it's one element of many. Carryover franchises aren't useful on their own (look at PS3 for the current canonical example) but they do help. The DS synthesized the GBA audience with a new broadened audience created by "non-games," then found that members of each audience could be sold titles intended for the other -- leading to the DS' huge explosion of success.

The Wii doesn't have that "by default" market of established gamers waiting to buy established franchises to synthesize with the lapsed/non-gamer market, which means any success the system has for third-party publishers has to be built up from scratch. Which (circuitously enough) gets back to my very original point: Nintendo should be throwing down tons of cash and (more importantly) well-thought-out alternative marketing to destroy the "third parties can't sell on Nintendo consoles" stigma as quickly as possible so the Wii can succeed as hugely as possible.

JoshuaJSlone said:
"Would have done" is always a guessing game, though. If they hadn't released Tales of Symphonia on PS2, we wouldn't have a comparison by which to say the GCN version was less successful than.

The mainline Tales series has a huge, long history of sales on three other consoles. Symphonia GCN sold dramatically worse than every other entry in the series, including Legendia -- the game with bad release buzz due to the alternate team developing it. The most comparable title, Tales of the Abyss (designed by the same subgroup of Tales Studio) sold about double on the PS2 what ToS did on the GCN. It's pretty much completely unambiguous that ToS was a sales failure and that its platform was the direct and sole cause of that failure.
 

ksamedi

Member
ethelred said:
Right, right. I know in Hypothetical Nintard Fantasy World, Crisis Core came out on the DS and sold 5 million copies because of how hugely fanboyish towards Cloud x Sephie the stylus fanbase is. Here in Real World, though, it's still one of the best-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever created, even comparing its performance to market leading platforms like the PSX, the PS2, and the NDS; its sales are consistent with how a top-of-the-line Final Fantasy spinoff should sell. Anyone who latches onto it as some sort of underachiever is, I regret to say, pushing an agenda bigger than the iceberg what sunk the Titanic.



We can't compare the PSP's Monster Hunter performance with that of the PS2? We can't compare Tales of Phantasia's PSP performance to that of the GBA? Surely those count as market leading platforms as well -- surely, at the very least, the PS2 is? Your statement was that by definition a market leading platform is going to engender better sales for various third party games, but that isn't the case as here I'm pointing to a bunch of third party games and series that thrived on perpetually second place PSP.

We can't compare Crisis Core to Crisis Core DS (thank god), but we can look at how every single Final Fantasy spinoff has done on another system. While none leads to a direct comparison, there's still enough broad information about the subseries and its trending to tell us enough -- that Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, had outsold a lot of its brethren and didn't just achieve "good for the system" sales but "great for the series in general" sales.

Heh, I'm not a Nintard living in a fantasy world and don't call me that. What you fail to understand is that most PSP owners probably also own a DS. What sells on the PSP could also sell on the DS or PS2 if the game works well on the platform. Its not like all those PSP owners suddenly started buying Monster Hunter because its on PSP and they feel they reperesent the PSP. Its not like that, and thats kind of the picture you are painting, almost saying that stuff sells worse on DS because of Nintards, or stuff sells good on PSP because of Sony fans. Both Sony and Nintendo would be one happy company if theyh had so many blind fans, in truth those fans only make up a very small percentage of the userbase. You just have to create stuff that sells and if it doesn't, blaming the userbase is the last thing you should do.
 

Parl

Member
ethelred said:
Right, right. I know in Hypothetical Nintendo Candy Land Fantasy World, Crisis Core came out on the DS and sold 5 million copies because of how hugely fanboyish towards Cloud x Sephie the stylus fanbase is. Here in Real World, though, it's still one of the best-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever created, even comparing its performance to market leading platforms like the PSX, the PS2, and the NDS; its sales are consistent with how a top-of-the-line Final Fantasy spinoff should sell. Anyone who latches onto it as some sort of underachiever is, I regret to say, pushing an agenda bigger than the iceberg what sunk the Titanic.

On the other side of the coin, a spin-off doesn't typically sell as well as a main numbered iteration because its perception as a spin-off (that stigma makes it less compelling than a main numbered title), most spin-offs are viewed as lower quality titles, and they're promoted less. These attributes only partially apply to CC as it has the strength of the FF7, was generally viewed as a high quality title (higher than that of many of the other spin-offs) and was promoted heavily.

The game sold really well, but it sold to less than a third of those who buy main iterations on PS2. If you define success as making a significant profit (whatever that is), then that's fine.

I don't think Monster Hunter Portable would have been more successful on DS, but I think maybe that CC would have been, despite the disadvantages the game has from being on there. Same applies to if it was on PS2.
 

Galactic Fork

A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
test_account said:
I dont quite see what you mean with this. We were talking about how the situation was 2 years before Wii was released, that would be somewhere around 2004. Nintendo did not dominate in 2004 so why should i mention Nintendo's domination back in the late 80's and to some extend in the early 90's? That is irrelevant to this example. Handheld is a different marked and Nintendo has dominated that since the release of Gameboy in 1990 (maybe you can even count Game & Watch from the early 80's too). But that is a different discussion.

The reason I brought up nintendo was to point out in the past, even long strings of domination suddenly die. So you cannot just assume Sony will continue without actually looking at history. And dominating the market for years didn't help Nintendo, but in the case of 2 years ago, you just assume it's going to help Sony. What is that based on?


test_account said:
So far this has seem to be the case, but history doesnt always repeat itself. These times are different from the other times. If it will happend again is totally possible of course, but its not a given.

It's not a given, but as time passes it becomes more and more likely. How much time has to pass before the possibility goes away?

test_account said:
My point was that you could use logic and evidence already back in 2004 that Nintendo Wii wouldnt dominate this generation (so far atleast), just like you can use logic and evidence today that PS3 wont sell i.e 12 million within 4 years. I agree that its a different thing, but the main thing is still the same, using evidence and logic on today's situation to predict the future.

That's like saying a puddle and an ocean are the same because they both have water.

Actually I think JoshuaJSlone said it best with: "One is predicting a race's outcome before it starts. Another is predicting a race's outcome after it's begun and one competitor has lapped another multiple times."

To which you still replied that they are both predictions. But let me ask you this flat out. Which one has more credit?

You are so quick to often say "anything is possible." But the question is, what is more likely?
 
Given the marketing push behind FF7:CC, plus the fact that it was (for once) a quality F7 spinoff, I kinda expected it to go platinum status.

I still don't see it as an outright sales disppointment, however. More of a 'Could have done better' thing.
 

ethelred

Member
Parl said:
On the other side of the coin, a spin-off doesn't typically sell as well as a main numbered iteration because its perception as a spin-off (that stigma makes it less compelling than a main numbered title), most spin-offs are viewed as lower quality titles, and they're promoted less. These attributes only partially apply to CC as it has the strength of the FF7, was generally viewed as a high quality title (higher than that of many of the other spin-offs) and was promoted heavily.

The game sold really well, but it sold to less than a third of those who buy main iterations on PS2. If you define success as making a significant profit (whatever that is), then that's fine.

I don't think Monster Hunter Portable would have been more successful on DS, but I think maybe that CC would have been, despite the disadvantages the game has from being on there. Same applies to if it was on PS2.

Whether or not a game made a profit is a good gauge for success. But again, there's a lot of history here and we can look at how the game sold compared to every other spinoff -- and the answer, except in one particular case, is "better." It's pretty plain meaning, actually, but you're going through some severe contortions of straight-up numeric comparisons and twists of logic to state that Crisis Core not only should have sold better than all prior Final Fantasy spinoffs but that it should have sold more better than the prior Final Fantasy spinoffs... and because it just didn't outsell every one of them but one by enough of a margin to meet your hypothetical standard, it wasn't successful.

Frankly, that's beyond silly. The numbers have a plain meaning and they speak for themselves, and comparatively Crisis Core was more than a success. It may well end up outselling the original release of Kingdom Hearts, for christ's sake. The bar you are setting is both unreasonable and irrational.

ksamedi said:
Heh, I'm not a Nintard living in a fantasy world and don't call me that.

Then stop acting like one.

ksamedi said:
You just have to create stuff that sells and if it doesn't, blaming the userbase is the last thing you should do.

Fortunately, in Crisis Core's case, the game did sell. Exceptionally well.

charlequin said:
The mainline Tales series has a huge, long history of sales on three other consoles. Symphonia GCN sold dramatically worse than every other entry in the series, including Legendia -- the game with bad release buzz due to the alternate team developing it. The most comparable title, Tales of the Abyss (designed by the same subgroup of Tales Studio) sold about double on the PS2 what ToS did on the GCN. It's pretty much completely unambiguous that ToS was a sales failure and that its platform was the direct and sole cause of that failure.

Absolutely. It's really not at all ambiguous. The GameCube was an unmitigated third party failure. After this was demonstrated, no publisher in good conscience brought anything to it except anime licenses. The PSP, on the other hand, has been an unqualified success for a number of third party titles. So no, what you stated before isn't just the definition of a market leader writ large.
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
ethelred said:
We can't compare Crisis Core to Crisis Core DS (thank god), but we can look at how every single Final Fantasy spinoff has done on another system. While none leads to a direct comparison, there's still enough broad information about the subseries and its trending to tell us enough -- that Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, had outsold a lot of its brethren and didn't just achieve "good for the system" sales but "great for the series in general" sales.
That's a flawed analysis, the FFVII appeal of userbase on PSP cannot solely attain to the success of the game. Aren't you ignoring the fact that people also concede to a game based on the quality? Or even taking genre into account?

If S-E had made FFXII:RW in-house for about 3 years, or had at least coordinated Think & Feel and Brownie Brown's efforts into a higher-quality game, do you think it would have done better? Or how about if they made into a full RPG or even the action/semi-RPG they made Crisis Core into instead of a pseudo-RTS/semi-RPG, would a FFXII:RW like that perform more successfully? I think so.

So while it's unfair to underplay Crisis Core's success, I think it's also unfair to compare it to other Final Fantasy spin-offs, or to even outright say that it would not have performed better on the DS or Wii or even on the 360 (okay, maybe not on the 360 in Japan :lol ).
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
jj984jj said:
So while it's unfair to underplay Crisis Core's success, I think it's also unfair to compare it to other Final Fantasy spin-offs, or to even outright say that it would not have performed better on the DS or Wii or even on the 360 (okay, maybe not on the 360 in Japan :lol ).

QFT :)
 

ethelred

Member
jj984jj said:
That's a flawed analysis, the FFVII appeal of userbase on PSP cannot solely attain to the success of the game. Aren't you ignoring the fact that people also concede to a game based on the quality? Or even taking genre into account?

If S-E had made FFXII:RW in-house for about 3 years, or had at least coordinated Think & Feel and Brownie Brown's efforts into a higher-quality game, do you think it would have done better? Or how about if they made into a full RPG or even the action/semi-RPG they made Crisis Core into instead of a pseudo-RTS/semi-RPG, would a FFXII:RW like that perform more successfully? I think so.

So while it's unfair to underplay Crisis Core's success, I think it's also unfair to compare it to other Final Fantasy spin-offs, or to even outright say that it would not have performed better on the DS or Wii or even on the 360 (okay, maybe not on the 360 in Japan).

That's why I didn't compare it to a single specific Final Fantasy spinoff, because it's not directly comparable to any one of them. However, we can look at the entire spinoff subseries as a whole and still see Crisis Core coming out ahead -- again, barring inclusion of Tactics. What if it was a multiple year in-house effort? Well, Crystal Chronicles and Dirge of Cerberus were. What if it was an action RPG? Well, Crystal Chronicles and Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates were. What if it got higher review scores? Several have.

It's not fair to compare Crisis Core to any one spinoff but we can sure as hell look at how it's sold more than all of them except one and come to the conclusion that it performed pretty fucking well.
 

Christopher

Member
ksamedi said:
Heh, I'm not a Nintard living in a fantasy world and don't call me that. What you fail to understand is that most PSP owners probably also own a DS. What sells on the PSP could also sell on the DS or PS2 if the game works well on the platform. Its not like all those PSP owners suddenly started buying Monster Hunter because its on PSP and they feel they reperesent the PSP. Its not like that, and thats kind of the picture you are painting, almost saying that stuff sells worse on DS because of Nintards, or stuff sells good on PSP because of Sony fans. Both Sony and Nintendo would be one happy company if theyh had so many blind fans, in truth those fans only make up a very small percentage of the userbase. You just have to create stuff that sells and if it doesn't, blaming the userbase is the last thing you should do.

:lol ethelred calls it right pretty much.
 
I don't see how one could state with such conviction that a Crisis Core DS wouldn't have done better (significantly or no) that the Crisis Core we do have.

Given first that a Crisis Core DS would have to be a significantly different game from the Crisis Core that did release, there's no call either that (a) the quality (enjoyabiliy, et al) of the game would have suffered on the DS, or that (b) Square would not have aggressively marketed it like they did for the Crisis Core that did appear.

The userbase demographic argument is also strange to me. Let's give that the PSP has a more 'hardcore' base, because usually it's the hardcore that buy the systems that aren't performing as well. However, said hardcore would likely also own DSes, thus such sales would also carry over regardless of the handheld.

Therefore, at absolute least, sales would be largely the same regardless of platform, and I believe it would be higher on the DS simply due to the larger userbase to sell to.
 

Parl

Member
ethelred said:
Whether or not a game made a profit is a good gauge for success. But again, there's a lot of history here and we can look at how the game sold compared to every other spinoff -- and the answer, except in one particular case, is "better." It's pretty plain meaning, actually, but you're going through some severe contortions of straight-up numeric comparisons and twists of logic to state that Crisis Core not only should have sold better than all prior Final Fantasy spinoffs but that it should have sold more better than the prior Final Fantasy spinoffs... and because it just didn't outsell every one of them but one by enough of a margin to meet your hypothetical standard, it wasn't successful.

Frankly, that's beyond silly. The numbers have a plain meaning and they speak for themselves, and comparatively Crisis Core was more than a success. It may well end up outselling the original release of Kingdom Hearts, for christ's sake. The bar you are setting is both unreasonable and irrational.

What I was basically saying was that CC sold better than nearly all spin-offs because it had a bigger budget, had the FF7-ness to it, and was promoted like crazy. It has many differences to a typical FF spin-off for these reasons.

It was treated more like a main numbered iteration, had much of the perceived quality of one, and much of the promotion of one, and the FF7 branding and theme. The reason why this game sold much, much less than something like FF X-2 on a system with a fairly uncompetitive RPG market was because there is only so much success that can be found on PSP. To avoid your tendency to disregard any opinion formed by me that mix reality and Nintendo success, I'll ignore DS and state that I believe FF:CC would've sold much more on PS2 than PSP.

That's like me saying RE4 did worse on GC than RE1 did on PS1, therefore RE4 is not as successful as it should have been, because of the GC userbase.

Pureauthor said:
I don't see how one could state with such conviction that a Crisis Core DS wouldn't have done better (significantly or no) that the Crisis Core we do have.

Given first that a Crisis Core DS would have to be a significantly different game from the Crisis Core that did release, there's no call either that (a) the quality (enjoyabiliy, et al) of the game would have suffered on the DS, or that (b) Square would not have aggressively marketed it like they did for the Crisis Core that did appear.

The userbase demographic argument is also strange to me. Let's give that the PSP has a more 'hardcore' base, because usually it's the hardcore that buy the systems that aren't performing as well. However, said hardcore would likely also own DSes, thus such sales would also carry over regardless of the handheld.

Therefore, at absolute least, sales would be largely the same regardless of platform, and I believe it would be higher on the DS simply due to the larger userbase to sell to.

I agree.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
GreenGlowingGoo said:
The reason I brought up nintendo was to point out in the past, even long strings of domination suddenly die. So you cannot just assume Sony will continue without actually looking at history. And dominating the market for years didn't help Nintendo, but in the case of 2 years ago, you just assume it's going to help Sony. What is that based on?

I know, i didnt say that either. As said, just look at PS2 -> PS3. I dont think any console line has taken this big turn. When i mentioned 8 years of Playstation dominance it was to show that it could be used as a evidence that Wii wouldnt dominate this generation. No other console company had seen the same success as Sony had (~100 million PSX sold and probly like 60-70 million PS2 consoles sold (by 2004 that is)). To think this success would stop with a snap of a finger, so to say, was pretty much unthinkable back in 2004. It was first when the price for the PS3 was announce that people started to think otherwise.


GreenGlowingGoo said:
That's like saying a puddle and an ocean are the same because they both have water.

I'm not comparing apples and oranges here. I'm saying that evindences to predict something could be used before a console is released or not.


GreenGlowingGoo said:
It's not a given, but as time passes it becomes more and more likely. How much time has to pass before the possibility goes away?

From now.. i would say 1-2 years.


GreenGlowingGoo said:
To which you still replied that they are both predictions. But let me ask you this flat out. Which one has more credit?

Do you mean these predictions?
1. Saying in 2004 that Wii would dominate this generation.
2. Saying that PS3 will see an amazing boost in hardware sale and regain the number 1 spot?

I would say both is pretty much on the same line.


GreenGlowingGoo said:
You are so quick to often say "anything is possible." But the question is, what is more likely?

Going by today's situation its more likely that PS3 wont see any amazing boost in hardware sales. Its no denying that.
 

Parl

Member
test_account said:
Do you mean these predictions?
1. Saying in 2004 that Wii would dominate this generation.
2. Saying that PS3 will see an amazing boost in hardware sale and regain the number 1 spot?

I would say both is pretty much on the same line.

Like Josh said, one is making a prediction before the generation has started, the other is making a prediction that a failing system will gain massive momentum in the future, despite previous efforts failing to bring momentum up a fraction of what would be required to regain the number 1 spot.

What you're saying is like me saying that these two are on the same line...

1. My PC will still be working tonight.

2. It will stop raining between 2 hours and 2 hours 15 mins from now. That's just a guess, but it could happen.

(Not as a extreme though)
 
Pureauthor said:
I don't see how one could state with such conviction that a Crisis Core DS wouldn't have done better (significantly or no) that the Crisis Core we do have.

It has almost nothing to do with the overall userbase of DS and PSP in general and a lot to do with the game in specific. FF7 was correctly identified by S-E as their single most popular and marketable FF IP, with a huge amount of built-up desire to play around more in the same world. This appeal is definitely partially linked to the fact that FF7 was by far the most primitive of the 3d FFs and there's a great deal of room to expand on that game's presentation. The PSP provided the opportunity to realize this and present a game with dramatically better presentation than the original game; the DS would not have.

I don't think it's a wild assertion in this specific case to suggest that the PSP iteration is more successful than an "identical" DS game would be, in the same way that the constantly-discussed FF7-remake-for-PS3 is more "relevant" than FF7-remake-for-Wii would be.
 
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