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[cvxfreak]

Putting a 3rd party game on the PS3 still seems like a hell of a lot riskier move to me.

Yes.

Case in point, RE4 Wii > VF5 > Ninja Gaiden Sigma

 

[charlequin]

en generale

All other things being equal. Which, to return to my point, we are arguing they are not in this circumstance.

Also, your argument only works if companies are treating the console market as a separate one from the handheld market, which there is increasingly less and less reason to do.

What shareholders care about is profit and growth. Companies answer to these shareholders. Even if the DS is your main platform, the Wii has proven to be a viabeble system for software sales as well.

No. Again, this is exactly what has not been proven. The situation is very uncertain right now, with positive signs (DQS and RE4) and negative ones (TIZ, SMG, etc.) If we assume companies are going to be conservative in how they interpret that evidence (something that's often a safe bet with Japanese publishers), they'll look at the negative evidence and ignore the positive unless it continues to mount up like it did on the DS.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Putting a 3rd party game on the PS3 still seems like a hell of a lot riskier move to me.

Mmmm, I don't understand what does that have to with what I said. I mean, I read you answer and I fail to see how it connects to what I say :?

 

[ethelred]

Not only that but the profit margins on Wii software are much higher than DS software. (DS software cost less but also sell for less profit, Wii software cost more but sell for more profit, once you break even, Wii software is more profiteble)

what

 

[schuelma]

Mmmm, I don't understand what does that have to with what I said. I mean, I read you answer and I fail to see how it connects to what I say :?

Maybe I misread your post- I thought you were implying that the Wii in Japan doesn't deserve more 3rd party support than PS3 in Japan.

If not, I apologize.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

"exceptionally bad"?

I agree the last few months they've been disappointing, but I don't think they've reached that kind of territory...yet.

"Exceptionally bad" for a console that is completely annihilating the competition.

 

[schuelma]

"Exceptionally bad" for a console that is completely annihilating the competition.

Ok, now that makes sense.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Maybe I misread your post- I thought you were implying that the Wii in Japan doesn't deserve more 3rd party support in Japan.

If not, I apologize.

Not, that isn't it....I tried to say that Wii has gotten quite a few good pieces of 3rd party software by now, in regards to '3rd party games don't sell because they just release shit'..

 

[laserbeam]

At the end of the day the Wii offers the best Profitability for Companies if they actually put the effort in and appeal to the Market.

Decent Wii games can be Profitable with as little as 85,000-100,000 Sales. Decent Xbox 360/PS3 games take anywhere from 700,000-1,000,000 to hit the profitable stage.

Problem Developers are having right now is adjusting to the Wii. resident Evil 4 for instance showed the Wii is very viable for that kind of action Game and sales have blown more then double past what Capcom expected for the Game on the Wii.

If RE4 Wii keeps selling moderately well it could in fact fight to take over the best selling version spot and thats several years after the game already hit the market and people played it numerous time son 2 other systems

Developers need to settle in and see that the market is there for the types of games they usually make they just need to get back to making them well

 

[schuelma]

Not, that isn't it....I tried to say that Wii has gotten quite a few good pieces of 3rd party software by now, in regards to '3rd party games don't sell because they just release shit'..

Gotcha.

I think next week will say a lot with RE:UC

 

[CoolTrick]

Wii software sales are exceptionally bad.

No they aren't. They're average. It's not the X360, but not even the PS2 sold as much software as the X360 did this early. X360 sells so much software because

a) It's userbase is almost exclusively full of hardcore gamers
b) The types of AAA games on the system appeal to the same demographic.

Hence skyrocketed software sales of all the shooters and FPSs and action games.



The problem with this forum is that all the exceptional performances in a certain area jade people way too much. "Oh no, the Wii isn't selling as much software as the X360 and of DS nongames? It must be doing horribly!" "Oh no, the Wii isn't selling 100k a week anymore? It must mean Japanese gamers are disenchanted with it and Nintendo better do something quick!"

It's amazing how many people forget the DS's first year. So far, I haven't seen anything about the Wii's first year that is substantially different from that, at least with software sales. Are hardware sales much better right out of the gate? Yes. But that should only EASE everyone's fears about third party support on the Wii, not DECREASE it! The DS had much more to worry about in its first year against the PSP.

 

[kay]

Yes.

Case in point, RE4 Wii > VF5 > Ninja Gaiden Sigma

Wasn't RE4 half the price of those games? Also, a much bigger following...
Of course PS3 exclusive doesn't make much sense either but 360/PS3 aimed at Western market makes a lot of sense. I think for more Japanese targeted games though that is right, see D3 publisher.

 

[Wonderdave]

A couple weeks ago JJSloane put up a chart of Wii 3rd party sales VS PS3 and PS3 was higher on average, only marginaly so but still higher. When you consider the disparity between user bases that's troubling for Nintendo. Over the long term the smarter decision for third parties is to build the PS3 base, even if The PS3 only moves to a position of close second they will enjoy better sales than on the Wii. It's little wonder that many third parties are taking a short term view toward Wii support. IMO Nintendo needs to step up their game in terms of creating a Core gamer market before third parties will fully commit.

 

[charlequin]

I think next week will say a lot with RE:UC

Definitely. If it puts up a very strong performance, this discussion will change pretty significantly: that'll certainly be a pretty clear signpost for Capcom, if not more third parties. Conversely, if it does poorly, I think that'll do a lot to hurt future third party development efforts.

What are our expectations on this title? I haven't sat down to do the research yet; do we know shipments or have analysis on what is likely to be considered a good number?

 

[ksamedi]

what

Well cart production aside, DS software is sold for less money, so the total cost of getting your stuff manufactured and sent to stores, licensing fees and what not, you make less profit of 40 dollar titles than 50 dollar titles. SE actually expressed this point in there share holder meetings a while back, saying that there profit could be lower even though they had succes on DS because of this fact.

 

[schuelma]

Definitely. If it puts up a very strong performance, this discussion will change pretty significantly: that'll certainly be a pretty clear signpost for Capcom, if not more third parties. Conversely, if it does poorly, I think that'll do a lot to hurt future third party development efforts.

What are our expectations on this title? I haven't sat down to do the research yet; do we know shipments or have analysis on what is likely to be considered a good number?

Well, we know the Famitsu analysts predicted 500K or something- that seems way too high to me.

Anyone know how the previous RE on rails games did?


I want to say 200-250K overall would be pretty respectable?

 

[schuelma]

Wasn't RE4 half the price of those games? Also, a much bigger following...
Of course PS3 exclusive doesn't make much sense either but 360/PS3 aimed at Western market makes a lot of sense. I think for more Japanese targeted games though that is right, see D3 publisher.

I don't think RE4 was budget priced in Japan. And it was also the 3rd console version in what, 2 years?

 

[laserbeam]

Well, we know the Famitsu analysts predicted 500K or something- that seems way too high to me.

Anyone know how the previous RE on rails games did?


I want to say 200-250K overall would be pretty respectable?

Capcom I believe estimates they will sell 420K units or so worldwide.

I think we could see a potential Million Seller honestly if only because gamers want to send a message to capcom about bringing more hardcore to the wii

 

[ksamedi]

All other things being equal. Which, to return to my point, we are arguing they are not in this circumstance.

Also, your argument only works if companies are treating the console market as a separate one from the handheld market, which there is increasingly less and less reason to do.



No. Again, this is exactly what has not been proven. The situation is very uncertain right now, with positive signs (DQS and RE4) and negative ones (TIZ, SMG, etc.) If we assume companies are going to be conservative in how they interpret that evidence (something that's often a safe bet with Japanese publishers), they'll look at the negative evidence and ignore the positive unless it continues to mount up like it did on the DS.

SMG sales are really a bad example for disproving the software selling power of a platform. It may have had a worse start than SMS but third parties would kill for those sales (considering the long legs it will probably have). But I think I'm on the optimistic and your a little on the pessimistic side, we both have to wait to see how this all turns out. I think these discussions are much too premature to make.

 

[cvxfreak]

Well, we know the Famitsu analysts predicted 500K or something- that seems way too high to me.

Anyone know how the previous RE on rails games did?

There were none prior to Umbrella Chronicles.

Capcom I believe estimates they will sell 420K units or so worldwide.

That was RE4 Wii's obviously now-broken estimate for the fiscal year. REUC's was between 600 and 700K.

 

[kay]

I don't think RE4 was budget priced in Japan. And it was also the 3rd console version in what, 2 years?

The list price is 50% higher for the latter titles so it was still cheaper. I know it was a re-release but the series has always sold well as it has a more mainstream appeal.

 

[schuelma]

There were none prior to Umbrella Chronicles.

Wasn't there Gun Survivor?

And I'm curious on your expectations for RE:UC

 

[charlequin]

Decent Wii games can be Profitable with as little as 85,000-100,000 Sales. Decent Xbox 360/PS3 games take anywhere from 700,000-1,000,000 to hit the profitable stage.

This is a bad comparison at best. The difference in profitability stems directly from game budget. If we assume ~$20 revenue per sale goes to the publisher, you're claiming an average game budget of ~$2m for Wii, compared to ~$20m for PS360. That's an entire order of magnitude difference. While there are certainly games on each platform with budgets in that range, the difference on average is nowhere near that figure -- a AAA PS360 title does not cost 10 times as much as a AAA Wii title, end of story.

 

[cvxfreak]

Wasn't there Gun Survivor?

And I'm curious on your expectations for RE:UC

The Gun Survivor games weren't on rails arcade shooters. This is why Umbrella Chronicles isn't a Gun Survivor game.

I think UC can do well. I expect it to do somewhere between the REmake (270K) and RE0 (400K).

 

[schuelma]

The Gun Survivor games weren't on rails arcade shooters. This is why Umbrella Chronicles isn't a Gun Survivor game.

I think UC can do well. I expect it to do somewhere between the REmake (270K) and RE0 (400K).

I realize they aren't identical and RE:UC should do better, but it might not be a bad place to start.

 

[kay]

This is a bad comparison at best. The difference in profitability stems directly from game budget. If we assume ~$20 revenue per sale goes to the publisher, you're claiming an average game budget of ~$2m for Wii, compared to ~$20m for PS360. That's an entire order of magnitude difference. While there are certainly games on each platform with budgets in that range, the difference on average is nowhere near that figure -- a AAA PS360 title does not cost 10 times as much as a AAA Wii title, end of story.

Yeah that was way off, I think laserbeam got those figures from that one study and Koei already said it was wrong.

 

[schuelma]

Anyone else with RE:UC predictions?

I'll say 130K first week, 300K lifetime.

 

[laserbeam]

Anyone else with RE:UC predictions?

I'll say 130K first week, 300K lifetime.

Im thinking around 100k launch and maybe 400k lifetime if it is received well. If its not received well I could see 250-300k life.

Worldwide I am more optimistic and see it being a Million seller

 

[cvxfreak]

I realize they aren't identical and RE:UC should do better, but it might not be a bad place to start.

I think a comparison to Gun Survivor is meaningless at this point and merely a troll point for uninformed individuals (when judging the gameplay quality, that is).

The Gun Survivor games never enjoyed the luxury of full-RE game status, which includes a strong advertising and PR campaign. Their enjoyment depended on the availability of an expensive accessory. The original Gun Survivor was released one week before CODE: Veronica, while Gun Survivor 2 was an arcade port released after Capcom moved the series to GameCube. Gun Survivor 4 was released in between Zero and Outbreak. Umbrella Chronicles is preceeding 5, but no one knows much about 5.

 

[schuelma]

I think a comparison to Gun Survivor is meaningless at this point and merely a troll point for uninformed individuals (when judging the gameplay quality, that is).

The Gun Survivor games never enjoyed the luxury of full-RE game status, which includes a strong advertising and PR campaign. Their enjoyment depended on the availability of an expensive accessory. The original Gun Survivor was released one week before CODE: Veronica, while Gun Survivor 2 was an arcade port released after Capcom moved the series to GameCube. Gun Survivor 4 was released in between Zero and Outbreak. Umbrella Chronicles is preceeding 5, but no one knows much about 5.

Interesting. I assume Capcom has or will be advertising this pretty heavily?

 

[Fredescu]

This is a bad comparison at best. The difference in profitability stems directly from game budget. If we assume ~$20 revenue per sale goes to the publisher, you're claiming an average game budget of ~$2m for Wii, compared to ~$20m for PS360. That's an entire order of magnitude difference. While there are certainly games on each platform with budgets in that range, the difference on average is nowhere near that figure -- a AAA PS360 title does not cost 10 times as much as a AAA Wii title, end of story.

Not forgetting of course that anyone developing a Wii game has to spend extra development time and money on controls. Dev cost isn't just graphics.

 

[charlequin]

SMG sales are really a bad example for disproving the software selling power of a platform. It may have had a worse start than SMS but third parties would kill for those sales

This is just the converse of "third parties don't sell on Nintendo, you can tell because Nintendo sells so well" (an argument I don't agree with.) Mario is a huge franchise with a proven track record; it doesn't matter if it sold well compared to third party titles, only whether it did well given its budget and expectations, which -- thus far -- it didn't.

(considering the long legs it will probably have). /QUOTE]

Don't count your chicken legs before they've hatched.

(I agree that this is all uncertain. My goal is to get people to admit to the possibility that some third parties must already be considering. If SMG puts up ridiculous legs next week and REUC explodes with amazing sales, everything I've argued this week will be irrelevant because of how much that changes the landscape.)

 

[cvxfreak]

Interesting. I assume Capcom has or will be advertising this pretty heavily?

Seems like it. A few stores I've been to in Tokyo (Bic in Shinjuku) have had TV kiosks with the game's trailer running for at least two weeks. I expect a few commercials too.

 

[Weisheit]

It's only a bad business decision if core game titles do well after they are put on the Wii.
Right now, there's a couple examples that did: RE4 and DQ:S. There's also a lot more that didn't, and (this is the big thing) that includes Nintendo's own titles, the one area that's been previously unassailable on even Nintendo's biggest failure console. If you're a conservative company that doesn't want to spend a lot of money on shifting development priorities

Care to name these "previously unassailable" Nintendo titles that that have done badly?

This is a bad comparison at best. The difference in profitability stems directly from game budget. If we assume ~$20 revenue per sale goes to the publisher, you're claiming an average game budget of ~$2m for Wii, compared to ~$20m for PS360. That's an entire order of magnitude difference. While there are certainly games on each platform with budgets in that range, the difference on average is nowhere near that figure -- a AAA PS360 title does not cost 10 times as much as a AAA Wii title, end of story.

But it's not really the end of the story. The point still stands, in order to be profitable on PS360 publishers need to sell significantly more software.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I think I just noticed that there are....cough...26 PS3 games from 3rd parties. In a year, 26 games. Just wow. No more chart watching on saturday nights....


Went to look my predictions (month old by now) to look at my REUC one...err...

Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 150.000
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Fuketsu no Grimoire - 450.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1.500.000 (no counting 2008)
X360 Ace Combat 6 - 75.000

The released ones...well, not bad for AC6 if it was a first week prediction but considering it was LTD...FFTA2 also unspot....Galaxy better have those legs you guys says it'll have or I'll be missing by much :lol

 

[charlequin]

Care to name these "previously unassailable" Nintendo titles that that have done badly?

Er... Zelda and Mario? I feel like we've been over this already. And I said "didn't do well," which is subtly different from "did badly."

But it's not really the end of the story. The point still stands, in order to be profitable on PS360 publishers need to sell significantly more software.

No, it really is the end of the story. Those numbers are a misunderstanding at best and a lie at worst; they're totally unrepresentative and no decent discussion can come of them. I don't think anybody is claiming that PS360 games don't have significantly higher budgets (and therefore, significantly higher break-even points) than Wii titles on average, but citing a 10x difference as representative is totally ridiculous.

 

[Eteric Rice]

45k first week, 230k lifetime.

 

[schuelma]

45k first week, 230k lifetime.

If RE:UC sells 45K first week, that would be a disaster IMO.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

"Exceptionally bad" for a console that is completely annihilating the competition.

It's been about a month since I updated, but last time I checked Wii JP software was greater than PS2 JP software at the same time, not counting Wii Play. Difference being the PS2 first:third party ratio was something like 1:20.

 

[PantherLotus]

It's been about a month since I updated, but last time I checked Wii JP software was greater than PS2 JP software at the same time, not counting Wii Play.

The only way to prove this would be with a chart. If you gots the numbas I gots the pretty charts!

(must include DS first year as well, since we're trying to draw a parallel between the three)

 

[Eteric Rice]

If RE:UC sells 45K first week, that would be a disaster IMO.

I personally don't think Japan will be very into it, to be honest. It's a rail shooter that re-uses assets from previous games.

I should emphisise rail shooter.

 

[ethelred]

It's been about a month since I updated, but last time I checked Wii JP software was greater than PS2 JP software at the same time, not counting Wii Play. Difference being the PS2 first:third party ratio was something like 1:20.

Do a median comparison.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Er... Zelda and Mario? I feel like we've been over this already. And I said "didn't do well," which is subtly different from "did badly."



No, it really is the end of the story. Those numbers are a misunderstanding at best and a lie at worst; they're totally unrepresentative and no decent discussion can come of them. I don't think anybody is claiming that PS360 games don't have significantly higher budgets (and therefore, significantly higher break-even points) than Wii titles on average, but citing a 10x difference as representative is totally ridiculous.

Developers have said it themselves that a 360/PS3 game costs significantly more to make than a Wii game.

You'll have to look for the articles, though, I'm dead tired.

 

[PantherLotus]

I personally don't think Japan will be very into it, to be honest. It's a rail shooter that re-uses assets from previous games.

I should emphisise rail shooter.

so you're saying it's a title that has an appeal beyond comprehension? book me for 175k first week.

 

[schuelma]

Do a median comparison.

Are you implying that Wii Sports is skewing things? While I never...

 

[mepaco]

The list price is 50% higher for the latter titles so it was still cheaper. I know it was a re-release but the series has always sold well as it has a more mainstream appeal.

Irrelevant. People doubt the 3rd party sales potential because they don't believe the user base will buy the more traditional style games, not because they think Wii owners are poor. Regardless of the price, your casual Wii Sports grandma (that many seem to think is the majority of the user base) will not be interested in RE4.

 

[PantherLotus]

Developers have said it themselves that a 360/PS3 game costs significantly more to make than a Wii game.

You'll have to look for the articles, I'm dead tired.

I think the focus on the specific numbers is an elaborate ruse to miss the fuckin point.

Oh, what's the point?
Developers will put their games on the highest selling console, in general, and make more money doing so. Some developers can find a niche audience on the 2nd place system(s?) by filling a need and profit handsomely, but not by pouring huge amounts of money into it.

 

[ksamedi]

Developers have said it themselves that a 360/PS3 game costs significantly more to make than a Wii game.

You'll have to look for the articles, though, I'm dead tired.

He understands that, but some examples that were given were wrong. Also, the profit margins on PS3 or 360 software are higher because of the higer price, so every copy you sell after you break even has higher profits. But with the exceptionally low userbases for those platforms at there respected lifetimes, publishers didn't have the chance to reap the benefits yet.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The only way to prove this would be with a chart. If you gots the numbas I gots the pretty charts!

(must include DS first year as well, since we're trying to draw a parallel between the three)

Well, this is the one I did last month:

Do a median comparison.

Using the data I used to make the above graph, of the 67 charted PS2 games the median was 37.4K. Using Famitsu data through a month ago for Wii, the median of 58 charted games is 38.8K. Certainly Wii is more top-heavy, but the median always sucks.

EDIT: Oops, made a booboo. Proper link for Wii, leading to the median of 56 games being 42.6K I believe.

 

[reilo]

^^

Interesting to see that Wii Third Party and PS3 Third Party are not that far off from each other.

First party on the other hand...

Using the data I used to make the above graph, of the 67 charted PS2 games the median was 37.4K. Using Famitsu data through a month ago for Wii, the median of 58 charted games is 41.8K. Certainly Wii is more top-heavy, but the median always sucks.

Why do a median anyhow? What was the average?