Support NeoGAF

[Dragona Akehi]

^^

Interesting to see that Wii Third Party and PS3 Third Party are no that far off from each other.

First party on the other hand...

They're not? PS2 has over three times more software sold than Wii.

That's gotta be scary for publishers.

 

[ksamedi]

I think Joshua's charts make something clear, Japanese developers were caught by surprise as well, even though they knew that the DS was selling so well and that the Wii was the home console version of it.

 

[DemonSwordsman]

No, it isn't. Metroid Prime 3 is by far the best showcase for the controls.

Anyways, the ongoing debate here is pretty interesting. charlequin's post is spot on.

no i played metroid prime 3. It was terrible with the wii mote.

 

[reilo]

They're not? PS2 has over three times more software sold than Wii.

That's gotta be scary for publishers.

Is 1.9mil to 1.2mil really that far off when you take into account the install base?

no i played metroid prime 3. It was terrible with the wii mote.

Summon Amir0x!

 

[ksamedi]

no i played metroid prime 3. It was terrible with the wii mote.

Wha?

Wrong thread and uhh, your wrong on the controls as well.

 

[ethelred]

Why do a median anyhow? What was the average?

Average is pretty useless as a measuring stick. Median is much more valuable in the sense that it minimizes the ability for small numbers of outlying items to skew figures too high or too low. It gives a better broad look at how individual games as a whole are doing.

Josh: interesting figures. If those numbers are correct, that is fairly counterintuitive, but certainly a point of interest. I'd be curious to see what games are being counted there and what the timeframe being used is.

 

[PantherLotus]

I don't think it's that simple. One might say that Nintendo is its own 3rd party!

 

[reilo]

Average is pretty useless as a measuring stick. Median is much more valuable in the sense that it minimizes the ability for small numbers of outlying items to skew figures too high or too low. It gives a better broad look at how individual games as a whole are doing.

Josh: interesting figures. If those numbers are correct, that is fairly counterintuitive, but certainly a point of interest.

But a median can be skewed and misinterpreted, too.

 

[ksamedi]

I don't think it's that simple. One might say that Nintendo is its own 3rd party!

Well they do seem to output a lot more titles than they used to, must be because of those 3 programmer titles (Brain age was developed by 3 programmers in 3 months).

 

[Weisheit]

Er... Zelda and Mario? I feel like we've been over this already. And I said "didn't do well," which is subtly different from "did badly."

No you said:

Right now, there's a couple examples that did: RE4 and DQ:S. There's also a lot more that didn't, and (this is the big thing) that includes Nintendo's own titles, the one area that's been previously unassailable on even Nintendo's biggest failure console. If you're a conservative company that doesn't want to spend a lot of money on shifting development priorities

What previous 3D Mario or Zelda games have done so well in Japan so as to make them "unassailable"?
Edit:

Actually, you can blame the manufacturer. Nintendo chose to release the paucity of core game titles that the Wii currently has, and to focus as heavily as they did on casual gamers. That decision is what's maintaining third-party reticence; Nintendo doing something to make the Wii look like a real gaming machine would probably go a long way towards remedying this issue.

This is pure guess work on your part, I find it very difficult to believe people who are buying the Wii don't know it's a real game console.

 

[Mariah Carey]

Actually, you can blame the manufacturer. Nintendo chose to release the paucity of core game titles that the Wii currently has, and to focus as heavily as they did on casual gamers.

Aside from Wii Sports, Wii Play, and Mario Party 8, Nintendo's pretty much focused entirely on its core audience. I'm not entirely convinced the core console market as it was in the past really exists anymore in Japan; considering Nintendo themselves were the ones predicting this in the first place it seems strange their disruptive software has been so sparse.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Josh: interesting figures. If those numbers are correct, that is fairly counterintuitive, but certainly a point of interest. I'd be curious to see what games are being counted there and what the timeframe being used is.

I compiled it through putting old Top 30 lists in a spreadsheet and removing duplicates or non-PS2 games. Here's an HTML-exported version of what was compiled through week 45.

This does give Wii an advantage, in that the data is more complete thanks to getting information like almost complete software info through March.

Still, median sucks; the majority of games are always going to be really low. Something that certainly shows the PS2 software to be spread broader is to count, say, games over 100K. Using the above data, PS2 had 21, while in the month-old Wii data there were 11 (plus Wii Play). Wii has fewer games over 100K, but it has more games that are 20 times 100K.

 

[Jokeropia]

A couple weeks ago JJSloane put up a chart of Wii 3rd party sales VS PS3 and PS3 was higher on average, only marginaly so but still higher. When you consider the disparity between user bases that's troubling for Nintendo. Over the long term the smarter decision for third parties is to build the PS3 base, even if The PS3 only moves to a position of close second they will enjoy better sales than on the Wii.

Absolutely not. First of all the chart showed that virtually all the top 20 Wii third party games outsold their counterparts of the top 20 third party PS3 games (i.e #1 Wii third party game > #1 PS3 third party game, #2 Wii third party game > #2 PS3 third party game and so on), secondly the PS3 has gotten much more big budget games that needed to sell several times more than they did in order to turn a profit (hello Gundam Musou), and finally with Wii there's also a viable worldwide installed base to consider. lol :lol :lol @ "even if PS3 only becomes a close second".)

Well, that's really part of the problem: "as they did on GCN" isn't really good enough.

When have they made more games?

Er... Zelda and Mario? I feel like we've been over this already. And I said "didn't do well," which is subtly different from "did badly."

Zelda was definitely not "unassailable" in Japan (in fact TP is likely quite close to WW if you consider the GC sales), and it's way to early to declare that SMG will fail to match SMS.

 

[ksamedi]

This is quite the generalization, that American devs are less creative than Japanese developers. And it flies in the face of the abundance of new IPs that have done exceptionally well over the last two years, Red Steel included. If we're talking about Japanese sales alone, its impossible to make a valid comparison, because Western games almost never sell in Japan, innovative or not.

And firing your talent for their refusal to work on hardware that they don't want to work on is an easy way to end up with a portfolio of mediocre games.

I didn't mean to say that American devs are less creative, but there development model is. Its more focused on specialty and thats why the US devs create great technological showpieces but almost always lack in the game design department. Ofcourse there are exceptions to this but generaly speaking, Japanese companies create better software for platforms like the DS and Wii.

Madden as it exists on Wii could not be done on the 360. It's a football sim that uses motion controls to perform analogous actions on the field. But at the end of the day, its selling point is (and should be) that it's a football sim.

But as you say, Madden should be a non-issue in a Japanese thread.

It replaces buttons with motions, there is nothing special about that. It should use complex motions to simulate complex play while at the same time being accesible to a broad range of people. That is not possible on the 360 and that is what I meant.

Okay, this argument is fundamentally flawed. You're now asking 3rd parties to not make the games that they want to make (the 'fire the producer' bit), but games that have to be based on motion controls in order to sell? Doesn't this argue against every dev putting the majority of their resources into making traditional games on Wii? There are some games that work just as well with regular controls, and for those games the Wii has to present a convincing argument to Japanese devs that it's a better choice than PSP, DS, or PS3/360/PC.



This isn't true and you know it.

Well you are partially right but I do think that the best selling Wii games will be games that are only possible on Wii.

 

[ethelred]

Actually, you can blame the manufacturer. Nintendo chose to release the paucity of core game titles that the Wii currently has, and to focus as heavily as they did on casual gamers. That decision is what's maintaining third-party reticence; Nintendo doing something to make the Wii look like a real gaming machine would probably go a long way towards remedying this issue.

This is pure guess work on your part, I find it very difficult to believe people who are buying the Wii don't know it's a real game console.

That's actually not guess work on his part at all. Third party developers have been pretty clear that they view the Wii exactly as how Nintendo has been marketing it -- a casual gaming system. From Patrice Desilets to Akira Yamaoka to Tomonobu Itagaki (who has said that even within the frame of being very positive about the system). Nintendo has pushed it as a casual system, and third parties responded in kind.

Boo fucking hoo.

Something that certainly shows the PS2 software to be spread broader is to count, say, games over 100K. Using the above data, PS2 had 21, while in the month-old Wii data there were 11 (plus Wii Play). Wii has fewer games over 100K, but it has more games that are 20 times 100K.

Yes, I agree that that, too, is a better way of looking at the numbers than simple averages or overall totals.

 

[Fredescu]

Aside from Wii Sports, Wii Play, and Mario Party 8, Nintendo's pretty much focused entirely on its core audience.

BBA, and arguably Warioware. Core games might be ahead for the first year, but not by much.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

When have they made more games?

N64 was greater, at least early on. Check the yearly comparison at the bottom. That's only one possible way of looking at things; I chose all Nintendo-published games by year of US release, but if someone were to do a Japanese equivalent games would be shifting years and unlocalized games could change the balance.

 

[Tristam]

no i played metroid prime 3. It was terrible with the wii mote.

When you're the anomaly (i.e., when 99% of users and media outlets state the contrary), the problem isn't the control scheme; it's you.

 

[donny2112]

Galaxy 2nd week sales based on Sunshine's drop (i.e. very disappointing):
92K

Awesome, possibly over 1 million this year 2nd week sales:
200K+

Realistic expectation (i.e. trending to match Sunshine

Spoiler

):
~120K

 

[Weisheit]

That's actually not guess work on his part at all. Third party developers have been pretty clear that they view the Wii exactly as how Nintendo has been marketing it -- a casual gaming system. From Patrice Desilets to Akira Yamaoka to Tomonobu Itagaki (who has said that even within the frame of being very positive about the system). Nintendo has pushed it as a casual system, and third parties responded in kind.

That's great but he said:

That decision is what's maintaining third-party reticence

I haven't read any third party dev say that (maybe I missed it). Irregardless the opinions of two or three people doesn't prove what he said.

Boo fucking hoo.

It sounds more and more like this is what some folks will be saying to third party devs before long...

 

[ethelred]

That's great but he said:

I haven't read any third party dev say that (maybe I missed it). Irregardless the opinions of two or three people doesn't prove what he said.

I have a feeling that no matter how many people I quoted (and no matter how many actual real casual games these guys spend money on developing) you still would respond that it doesn't prove that third parties are reticent to commit heavily to hardcore games on Wii because of its branding as a casual system.

It sounds more and more like this is what some folks will be saying to third party devs before long...

Nope. Most of 'em seem to be doing fine. I imagine if these guys stick with the PS3 and 360, and if Nintendo can't bolster their support amongst hardcore gamers, most people will be perfectly willing to say fuck the Wii, there are better alternatives elsewhere.

 

[Weisheit]

I have a feeling that no matter how many people I quoted (and no matter how many actual real casual games these guys spend money on developing) you still would respond that it doesn't prove that third parties are reticent to commit heavily to hardcore games on Wii because of its branding as a casual system.

Well I'm not saying it wasn't said, but you didn't quote anybody.

Nope. Most of 'em seem to be doing fine. I imagine if these guys stick with the PS3 and 360, and if Nintendo can't bolster their support amongst hardcore gamers, most people will be perfectly willing to say fuck the Wii, there are better alternatives elsewhere.

That's the operative phrase.

 

[Vic]

sigh

 

[reilo]

That's great but he said:

I haven't read any third party dev say that (maybe I missed it). Irregardless the opinions of two or three people doesn't prove what he said.

It sounds more and more like this is what some folks will be saying to third party devs before long...

Smack!

 

[mclem]

It seems to me they must build a new user base. The biggest part of the old one has been lost, especially for Nintendo.

I'm wondering if that's Nintendo's long-term plan. A lot of people are suggesting that they're making casual games to broaden the userbase - I wonder if, long-term, that's just phase one.

Someone - I forget who - made the point that Wii Sports is a simple game in a similar way to how Pac-Man is simple, and it made me wonder whether there's a vague intent to create new hardcore gamers in the way that worked the first time, back in the 80s, with incremental increases in complexity.

'course, if that's the case, it'll probably be slow progress...

 

[Deku]

It's all academic at this point. Jonny's post earlier this weak about the splitting of the Japanese industry seems to make the most sense. The only twist I would add is the demographic issues facing that industry in that there are fewer and fewer kids coming up the ranks each year.

Every publisher are now going back and digging old franchises to reconnect with the 20-30 year old echo boomers who have fond memories of the games they grew up with.

There's a tendency to oversimplify things by saying S-E or Nintendo is in it for the money and is milking Final Fantasy for all its worth, but remake mania has move to do with the fact that very few new IPs do well in Japan.

 

[laserbeam]

It's all academic at this point. Jonny's post earlier this weak about the splitting of the Japanese industry seems to make the most sense. The only twist I would add is the demographic issues facing that industry in that there are fewer and fewer kids coming up the ranks each year.

Every publisher are now going back and digging old franchises to reconnect with the 20-30 year old echo boomers who have fond memories of the games they grew up with.

There's a tendency to oversimplify things by saying S-E or Nintendo is in it for the money and is milking Final Fantasy for all its worth, but remake mania has move to do with the fact that very few new IPs do well in Japan.

You bring up an interesting point. Many Nations Japan and the US included are facing a growing Crisis in the fact that the Population is Greying as fewer children are born.

Fewer Children being born with the Current gaming Population having been raised on Super Mario bros etc is forcing developers to rekindle the love gamers have for games of the past.

Theres Honestly 2 Generations of Gamers right now. The Nintendo generation and the Playstation Generation.

Developers got used to catering to the Playstation generation but thats no longer gonna suffice and they need to reappeal to The Nintendo Generation and thats whats hurting them. They are rusty appealing to the Older generation of gamers.

 

[Deku]

You bring up an interesting point. Many Nations Japan and the US included are facing a growing Crisis in the fact that the Population is Greying as fewer children are born.

Fewer Children being born with the Current gaming Population having been raised on Super Mario bros etc is forcing developers to rekindle the love gamers have for games of the past

The US is unique, its population is growing, net of migration. Both Europe and Japan are going down the road of less children and potential disaster for companies that rely of youth to sell their products.

Video games, no matter how mature we think the games are (which IMHO are not very mature) rely largely on young kids or at least young people with a lot of disposale income and time to drive the sales. They buy the most games. Stats showing average gamer age says very little as it includes someone who may play for 10 minutes vs the kid down the street who spends 40 hours gaming each week. Some research may also include grey demographics such as the yahoo game rooms and the like -- activities doesn't generate a lot of revenues.

 

[P90]

Fewer Children being born with the Current gaming Population having been raised on Super Mario bros etc is forcing developers to rekindle the love gamers have for games of the past.

Theres Honestly 2 Generations of Gamers right now. The Nintendo generation and the Playstation Generation.

Developers got used to catering to the Playstation generation but thats no longer gonna suffice and they need to reappeal to The Nintendo Generation and thats whats hurting them. They are rusty appealing to the Older generation of gamers.

Not true in the US:

http://www.prb.org/Publications/PopulationBulletins/2007/WorldPopulationHighlights.aspx Pg. 3 in particular.

It is only a matter of time until Nintendo takes over the undeveloped world.

 

[P90]

The US is unique, its population is growing, net of migration. Both Europe and Japan are going down the road of less children and potential disaster for companies that rely of youth to sell their products.

Video games, no matter how mature we think the games are (which IMHO are not very mature) rely largely on young kids or at least young people with a lot of disposale income and time to drive the sales. They buy the most games. Stats showing average gamer age says very little as it includes someone who may play for 10 minutes vs the kid down the street who spends 40 hours gaming each week. Some research may also include grey demographics such as the yahoo game rooms and the like -- activities doesn't generate a lot of revenues.

No. US' growth is due to migration and birth rate.

 

[Deku]

No. US' growth is due to migration and birth rate.

Hmm I need to check my reading, I thought it was 'natural' growth, which means growth based on birth only and not including migration.

 

[Fredescu]

Unreliable wikipedia etc etc, but going on this the fertility rate in the USA is 2.09. Replacement rate is considered to be 2.1 in developed countries, so pretty close but not quite. Most developed nations have sub replacement rates of fertility. There are government run dating agencies in Singapore and other places.

 

[PantherLotus]

So now declining birthrates and "fewer kids to sell to" are the reason:

1. SE is remaking everything over and over again
2. New IPs aren't doing well, and thus
3. 3rd parties can't sell shit on the Wii.


This is where we're at? BAIL OUT.

 

[reilo]

So now declining birthrates and "fewer kids to sell to" are the reason:

1. SE is remaking everything over and over again
2. New IPs aren't doing well, and thus
3. 3rd parties can't sell shit on the Wii.


This is where we're at? BAIL OUT.

Haha. Holy shit.

How about this:

Gaming has hit a stalemate in Japan, and the Japanese consumer is looking for something to rattle their console gaming fancy.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Another point regarding the youth of today (oh god I feel so old saying that) is that video games are no longer the hottest, coolest gadget available to kids. There is, and will be marketshare leak due to other newer forms of entertainment/time consumption such as instant messaging and social web 2.0 sites such as Facebook.

 

[HyperionX]

Another point regarding the youth of today (oh god I feel so old saying that) is that video games are no longer the hottest, coolest gadget available to kids. There is, and will be marketshare leak due to other newer forms of entertainment/time consumption such as instant messaging and social web 2.0 sites such as Facebook.

That's probably it. The gaming "fad" is falling out of style lately. It come back though, but only when good games compel them to do so.

 

[Fredescu]

One in six people in Japan own a DS, and it's climbing at a rate greater than the population of <subject hometown here> a week. Gaming fad over? Really?

 

[Lobster]

One in six people in Japan own a DS, and it's climbing at a rate greater than the population of <subject hometown here> a week. Gaming fad over? Really?

DS isn't a fad though. Hardcore games are.

Spoiler

please, everyone, refrain from killing me

 

[marvelharvey]

One in six people in Japan own a DS, and it's climbing at a rate greater than the population of <subject hometown here> a week. Gaming fad over? Really?

Nice reference <subject name here>!

 

[Phife Dawg]

Not, that isn't it....I tried to say that Wii has gotten quite a few good pieces of 3rd party software by now, in regards to '3rd party games don't sell because they just release shit'..

Such as? From the ones I played RE4 and Elebits and TC are definetly good (the first being one of the best games ever). Sonic was OK.
From the ones I didn't play, these are supposedly good: DBZ3, Z&W, TC2.

Did Blur ever get released in JP? That was good as well but doesn't really cater to japanese tastes, I don't think anyone expected this to sell in Japan, esp. after it bombed in the west.

Did I miss some games? Did you play more?

Definitely. If it puts up a very strong performance, this discussion will change pretty significantly: that'll certainly be a pretty clear signpost for Capcom, if not more third parties. Conversely, if it does poorly, I think that'll do a lot to hurt future third party development efforts.

What are our expectations on this title? I haven't sat down to do the research yet; do we know shipments or have analysis on what is likely to be considered a good number?

All the hopes and expectations of a whole console generation on the shoulders of an on-rails-shooter? Who'd have thunk that?

no i played metroid prime 3. It was terrible with the wii mote.

WTF? :lol

The list price is 50% higher for the latter titles so it was still cheaper. I know it was a re-release but the series has always sold well as it has a more mainstream appeal.

VF4 PS2: 356.897 (first week) 541.973 (LTD)
RE4 PS2: 234.917 (first week) 454.979 (LTD)
RE4 GC: 145.533 (first week) 220.799 (LTD)

Virtua Fighter was a bomb of epic proportions, there's no way to spin that. Even Anime shovelware sold better on Wii - hell Excite Truck almost matches it's LTD numbers :lol .

 

[CoolTrick]

is that video games are no longer the hottest, coolest gadget available to kids.

..........................................................


............................................................

.......................................................................................


...................................................................................................

Yeah, you hit the nail right on the head there. Videogames just aren't a hot, booming business anymore.

 

[Xeke]

..........................................................


............................................................

.......................................................................................


...................................................................................................

Yeah, you hit the nail right on the head there. Videogames just aren't a hot, booming business anymore.

So now the Wii isn't the fastest selling console of all time...?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Another point regarding the youth of today (oh god I feel so old saying that) is that video games are no longer the hottest, coolest gadget available to kids.

"You mean you have to use your hands? That's like a baby's toy!"

 

[perfectchaos007]

..........................................................


............................................................

.......................................................................................


...................................................................................................

Yeah, you hit the nail right on the head there. Videogames just aren't a hot, booming business anymore.

Nope, all kids want these days is a pet rock and silly putty.

 

[RBH]

VF4 PS2: 356.897 (first week) 541.973 (LTD)

Wow, I had no idea that VF4 sold that much. Makes the VF5 sales look even more laughable in comparison.

 

[kay]

Wow, I had no idea that VF4 sold that much. Makes the VF5 sales look even more laughable in comparison.

It sold to the same percentage of userbase as 4 did even though it was known to be the worst version. I believe Galaxy just did the same and didn't "bomb". Not to mention the likelyhood of an upgraded Evolution which needs to be better than the 360 version for anybody to buy it.

I don't know why Phife Dawg says RE is not bigger than VF just because of sales, so I guess Rayman is bigger than Pokemon (battle revolution)? :lol

 

[Phife Dawg]

It sold to the same percentage of userbase as 4 did even though it was known to be the worst version. I believe Galaxy just did the same and didn't "bomb". Not to mention the likelyhood of an upgraded Evolution which needs to be better than the 360 version for anybody to buy it.

I don't know why Phife Dawg says RE is not bigger than VF just because of sales, so I guess Rayman is bigger than Pokemon (battle revolution)? :lol

:lol Your point was sales, I merely compared the sales of the last installments in the respective series. The point was that RE4 sold better due to it being cheaper and being more popular and thus having better sales and thus relativizing VF5's sales. It was a moot attempt.

 

[A Black Falcon]

Unreliable wikipedia etc etc, but going on this the fertility rate in the USA is 2.09. Replacement rate is considered to be 2.1 in developed countries, so pretty close but not quite. Most developed nations have sub replacement rates of fertility. There are government run dating agencies in Singapore and other places.

Yes, but immigrants have the highest birthrates. The longer groups are here the lower their birthrates go. Still, yes, thanks to immigration and birthrates the US does not have the population problems of Japan and most of Europe. There are a few European countries that aren't shrinking, but most of them are, some almost as badly as Japan is... Japan has one of the lowest birthrates in the world, but a bunch of European countries aren't doing much better. This is bad for game companies sure, but also for governments (how do you support more old people than there are workers? And can you maintain your current international position with a substantially smaller population? And you'll have to stop the decline SOMETIME if you want to continue to survive as a separate people, given that most of the countries with population-shrink problems are places which do not believe that you can become a member of their society simply by moving there as America does... you can't 'become' Japanese like you can American, you either are or aren't. That's true in most of Europe too; France is one of the main exceptions... and France has one of Europe's highest birthrates.)

The problem is that countries that have highly-developed ideas of national identity that cannot be expanded to outsiders totally preclude the idea of fixing population decline with immigration as the US can. But how do you increase birthrates when it's obvious that, for lots of very good economic and social reasons, people don't want to have as many children... there aren't any answers to this problem yet. The US isn't totally exempt from the issue, though; just look at all the people unhappy about the rapidly expanding Hispanic population, with its birthrate way above where the non-Hispanic Caucasian US population's is...

Anyway, yeah, it makes a lot of sense for Japanese companies aiming at the home market to look beyond young people. That's a big part of why Nintendo's done this whole strategy, I'm pretty sure... simply looking at Japan's current population and trying to make games that fit it best. This means more games for adults. And because of other social reasons (such as high mass transit usage), handheld games are perfect for that region... in the US in contrast most casual gaming is done on PC (as well as cellphones, but PC first), but the PC has never had much of a hold in Japan gaming-wise, either casual or hardcore...

 

[icecream]

I cannot believe the 360 hardware results I'm seeing. All of this for Ace Combat 6, of all games?

Not to undermine its potential in Japan, but it's a super westernized (by its sixth iteration at least) flight-combat game. How much appeal could it have to the otaku?

Who said it was only because of AC6? There were a lot of Platinum releases this week as well.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

So now the Wii isn't the fastest selling console of all time...?

Fastest of all time if one of Slones previous charts is right, and substantially so. Even with Japans two month slow down, America and Eurolands sustained 100,000 weeks, are still propelling the console high.

So instead of having 1.3 million months, they now have 1.08 million five week months.

Comparing to either of the other two consoles would not be fair. They are nowhere near that region.