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[jgwhiteus]

I realize that both DS & Wii are selling "well", and may even be selling better than the PS2 at this point in its life cycle, but still...I think the DS at least is past the point where PS2 sales should be used as a yardstick - it's its own beast, and in comparison to how it was doing last year, there's been a pretty significant drop-off (30%? 40%?)

I don't think any company would be satisfied with such a significant percentage drop in sales in a year's time - I thought the DS used to regularly clear 100K a week (and to put it in perspective, it took MHP2G to raise the PSP's hardware numbers to levels even comparable to the DS's run-of-the-mill sales last year). I know people get sick of the word "saturation" being thrown around, and ~50K sales/week are nothing to sneeze at, but Nintendo has to have taken notice. It's not going to be satisfied because "well, we're still selling better than the PS2 was" - it's going to evaluate the DS's current sales against the DS sales of last year and in 2006. This is probably the reason Iwata & co. are testing out new ideas like streetmap functions, etc., to introduce the DS to new audiences.

MKWii not bumping the hardware that much doesn't surprise me either way - sure, it's a huge game, but "big game" and "system seller" aren't the same thing, especially if it appeals to the current Wii userbase and not new users. It's hard to tell what Wii game will draw in new audiences - Wii Music? Animal Crossing Wii? (especially if it takes on a MMO form, which might draw in a different crowd).

 

[titiklabingapat]

for fark sake Sony, release some epic game in Japan, they should be ashamed of themselve by letting the PS3 drop below 10k.

I don;'t think epic games are quite the answer.

 

[Mr Killemgood]

Ruh Roh. The X360 is nearing it's worst sales since it debuted in Japan. Better get the ghost of Peter Moore in somewhere to save 'em.

 

[PantherLotus]

Market Share Gains
[ ] 360: - 0.03
[ ] PS3: - 0.06
[ ] Wii: + 0.09

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Market Share Gains
[ ] 360: - 0.03
[ ] PS3: - 0.06
[ ] Wii: + 0.09

At this rate, 7-8 weeks, the Wii will hit that elusive 70% market share.

 

[donny2112]

What was PS2 doing at this point in it's life, around 25-35k?

About the same as the DS is doing now.

Updated. Any outside verification of the adjusted numbers would be appreciated.

I have mostly slight differences on some, but I don't know why. We probably need someone else to chime in.

LTDs (that I track):
DS - 22,325,908 (DS + DSL)
PSP - 8,980,578
WII - 5,762,518
PS3 - 2,007,796
360 - 556,986

Might not be what you're getting at, but consider that Golden Week had no significant effect on hardware last year.

Wasn't it the week of or the week after FFXII:RW released? DS saw a huge spike around then, which finally ended up breaking through the shortage barrier.

I thought the DS used to regularly clear 100K a week (and to put it in perspective, it took MHP2G to raise the PSP's hardware numbers to levels even comparable to the DS's run-of-the-mill sales last year).

The DS was still in shortage at this point last year. They were selling everything they shipped. Why in the world would 50K make Nintendo sad when it's no longer in shortage?

I'm pretty sure I understand where you're coming from, but DS from late 2005 until mid-2007 is the anomaly. These sales have every right to be called "normal" for Japan. That said, I still think they should drop the price to at least get it back to its launch price. :lol

 

[PantherLotus]

 

[Cheesemeister]

I have mostly slight differences on some, but I don't know why. We probably need someone else to chime in.

LTDs (that I track):
DS - 22,325,908 (DS + DSL)
PSP - 8,980,578
WII - 5,762,518
PS3 - 2,007,796
360 - 556,986

Here's what I have...

LTD through end of 2007 before:
[PS2] 20,927,037
[PSP] 7,601,594
[PS3] 1,641,676
[360] 507,341
[GBA] 15,348,849
[NGC] 4,180,061
[NDS] 21,173,051
[WII] 4,616,160

And after:
[PS2] 20,927,040
[PSP] 7,665,077
[PS3] 1,641,671
[360] 507,340
[GBA] 15,348,241
[NGC] 4,180,061
[NDS] 21,173,050
[WII] 4,616,159

Just as a note, I don't track DS & DS Lite separately.

 

[PantherLotus]

Notes

[ ] I was wrong on my estimated bump from MarioKart (by 12k). Not sure what happened honestly. Is this the moment when people start using dumbass words like "hardcore saturation?" I don't know.

[ ] It's possible that everybody that ever would have wanted MK already owns a Wii, but the sales of it show that it isn't a small title at all. It's also possible that Nintendo not having shortages (and thus not needing to hold units back) means that the bump was spread out over the previous weeks. One might confirm this by comparing the relative "calmness" of this year's Wii line vs. last year's.

[ ] It's possible that MK isn't a system seller.


==============

Next Week
360: 1,200
PS3: 9,000
Wii: 49,200

 

[Elbrain]

Well Ps3 is back in the crapper that sucks.

 

[Minsc]

Wasn't it the week of or the week after FFXII:RW released? DS saw a huge spike around then, which finally ended up breaking through the shortage barrier.

Yea, it seems we're both right, the spike may be due to inventory/software just as much as it was golden week for the DS, but the other systems not so much. Here are the relevant threads for a closer look:

Media Create Sales 4/16/07 - 4/22/07
Media Create Sales 4/23/07 - 4/29/07
Media Create Sales 4/30/07 - 5/06/07

360, DS, & Wii saw the biggest leaps (% wise), but I think the DS was in part supply constrained? That and the FF title like you said. The Wii was definetly supply constrained, so that jump is likely just extra inventory, and the PSP, PS2 & PS3 are all generally unaffected. The 360's huge increase was really only a thousand or so units, so despite being such a high % change, it's really an insignificant # of units compared to the other systems.

Edit: Seeing recent PSP hardware sales, I wouldn't be surprised to see the PSP hardware benefit the most this year from Golden Week sales.

 

[Gaborn]

Say, uh.... all the chart Gods? (Donny, Joshua, Panther, I'm looking in your direction...) Is there any way you can represent graphically (preferably) what the PS3 needs to sell per week by the end of the calendar year to equal what the Wii sold in 1 year? I know I figured it out a couple of weeks ago and it was like 46k per week or something, I'm sure it's over 50k but I'd love some sort of easy representation of the figure or something, though I know it'd be a bit of work.

The reason I think it's useful though is unlike a fluid number like what it'd take the PS3 to catch the wii if the wii stopped selling or whatever, the goal doesn't change every week.

 

[Link]

Here's what I have...

LTD through end of 2007 before:
[NDS] 21,173,051
[WII] 4,616,160

And after:
[NDS] 21,173,050
[WII] 4,616,159

I demand a recount.

 

[donny2112]

Here's what I have...

LTD through end of 2007 before:
[PSP] 7,601,594 match
[PS3] 1,641,676 1,641,677
[360] 507,341 match
[NDS] 21,173,051 match
[WII] 4,616,160 match

And after:
[PSP] 7,665,077 match
[PS3] 1,641,671 match
[360] 507,340 match
[NDS] 21,173,050 21,173,052
[WII] 4,616,159 4,616,161

Through the end of 2007, we're just slightly different on NDS and WII. I also found an error in my DSL number for Jan 21-27, which explains the larger previous difference there.

 

[Tenbatsu]

 

[jts]

ITT we see who are the real graphics whores.

 

[Vinnk]

MArio Kart Wii sold out in my town as far as I can tell (didn't visit 2 of the stores). I hope they have more by my payday on Monday. I still don't have a copy.

 

[kenta]

Holy crap PS3, just holy crap

 

[PantherLotus]

Say, uh.... all the chart Gods? (Donny, Joshua, Panther, I'm looking in your direction...) Is there any way you can represent graphically (preferably) what the PS3 needs to sell per week by the end of the calendar year to equal what the Wii sold in 1 year? I know I figured it out a couple of weeks ago and it was like 46k per week or something, I'm sure it's over 50k but I'd love some sort of easy representation of the figure or something, though I know it'd be a bit of work.

The reason I think it's useful though is unlike a fluid number like what it'd take the PS3 to catch the wii if the wii stopped selling or whatever, the goal doesn't change every week.

[(Wii's 2007 LTD) - (PS3's TOTAL LTD)] / (remaining weeks in the year)

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Holy crap PS3, just holy crap

I was exactly one week off on my expectations for the PS3.

I figured it'd drop below the 10,000 unit mark last week, but the chubby guy hung on for one more week.

 

[Soule]

oh wow just realized okami should (hopefully) be in next weeks charts right? can't wait to see how it goes, anyone got PS2 sales numbers?

also PS3 back down in the pits, any idea on when the next game expected to bump up the sales comes out?

 

[jj984jj]

oh wow just realized okami should (hopefully) be in next weeks charts right? can't wait to see how it goes, anyone got PS2 sales numbers?

also PS3 back down in the pits, any idea on when the next game expected to bump up the sales comes out?

No, Okami Wii is a Capcom USA/RAD game, if it comes out in Japan it'll be after the NA release. The next game that will give the PS3 a bump for sure is MGS4, but Valkyria next week might give it a small bump as well.

 

[nli10]

No time to read the other comments but the Mario Kart week hardware for the Wii situation was identical to this in the UK. It just sold as normal.

We are betting that sales will increase over the next few weeks though as UK tends to pick up games after launch unlike JP who like it on day one. Guess 'casual Japan' might do the same - if so look for steady slow HW climbs for the next month.

 

[Neil]

The PS3 really has failed in Japan :\

 

[lastendconductor]

:lol PS3
not surprising anyway, where the fuck are the games? does Sony expect to sell on brand alone?? (wait, don't answer that question)

wow PSP... MH is huge.

ITT we see who are the real graphics whores.

:lol :lol :lol

 

[Rock_Man]

Through the end of 2007, we're just slightly different on NDS and WII. I also found an error in my DSL number for Jan 21-27, which explains the larger previous difference there.

How can you have the Wii "after number" different from the one from geimin?

I have exactly the same numbers as Cheesemeister.

 

[Spiegel]

See the post above yours.

The Battle for Second

Difference: 142,958

I hate you donny

Spoiler

 

[AniHawk]

The PS3 really has failed in Japan :\

Dynasty Warriors Gundam Hot Shots Golf 5 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Metal Gear Solid 4 will save it.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Dynasty Warriors Gundam Hot Shots Golf 5 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Metal Gear Solid 4 will save it.

You forgot massive sales drivers like Ratchet and Clank, Heavenly Sword, Lair, and Virtua Fighter 5.

 

[near]

Dynasty Warriors Gundam Hot Shots Golf 5 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Metal Gear Solid 4 will save it.

I really doubt MGS4 will save it, I don't think the series is even all that strong over there.

 

[fortified_concept]

OH GOD....

The PS3 numbers...

 

[Defuser]

Worst part is after Valkyria Chonicles,there's almost no ps3 games coming out for next month.

 

[Yoshichan]

for fark sake Sony, release some epic game in Japan, they should be ashamed of themselve by letting the PS3 drop below 10k.

Uh, keep quiet please. Japanese people don't like the PS3, no game can save it so don't blame it.

 

[dolemite]

First day numbers anywhere?

 

[Stumpokapow]

First day numbers anywhere?

Not yet, it seems. When they do exist, they will be up at Sinobi. In case you are using a machine translation (Google Translator, Babelfish, etc), please note that when the machine tells you "million", it means "ten thousand". 22 million means 220,000, not 22,000,000 when it's translated

--and please don't post Sinobi stuff on GAF machine translated without checking it. Wait for someone who actually reads Japanese to post it :lol

 

[Laguna]

Uh, keep quiet please. Japanese people don't like the PS3, no game can save it so don't blame it.

How many PS3 games were released this year by Sony? zero? It is their fault because it seems they are extremely lazy.

 

[dolemite]

Wait for someone who actually reads Japanese to post it :lol

Since my Japanese is nonexistant, that's what I'm gonna do.

 

[slaughterking]

First day numbers anywhere?

Were there any siginificant releases anyway?

 

[gofreak]

How many games has SCEJ brought out on PS3 thusfar?

They seem to be totally asleep at the wheel. They need to get more games out themselves, and they need to cut deals with third parties to get more third party games out.

Obviously there are upcoming games that will see bumps..but Sony's problem is consistency. There is not a consistent stream of bump-producing software, such that bumps become the norm.

Surely they're not going to wait for something like Final Fantasy before trying to stimulate the market there?

Maybe since Kaz took over there's been a switch to a focus on western markets? I'm beginning to wonder if SCEJ has lost a bit of focus in the transition to PS3, the transition from Kutaragi etc. That's a lot of change happening at once.

 

[Soule]

No, Okami Wii is a Capcom USA/RAD game, if it comes out in Japan it'll be after the NA release. The next game that will give the PS3 a bump for sure is MGS4, but Valkyria next week might give it a small bump as well.

Thanks.

Are you sure about Okami though? The official Okami thread OP states it's due for a simultaneous release: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10612480&postcount=1

Published by: Capcom
Developed by: Ready At Dawn Studios / Clover Studio
Genre: Adventure
Release Date:
US: April 15, 2008
Japan: April 15, 2008
Europe: TBC
Price: $39.99

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Wow, the PS3 is dead in Japan.

Well, not really dead, it is more like the PS3 has become a permanent 2nd place.

I guess we are not seeing FF13 for a very long time.

 

[jj984jj]

Thanks.

Are you sure about Okami though? The official Okami thread OP states it's due for a simultaneous release: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10612480&postcount=1

That's wrong, games don't come out on Tuesday in Japan.

 

[Soule]

That's wrong, games don't come out on Tuesday in Japan.

alright, thanks for clarifying

 

[justjohn]

what are the chances of a ps3 slim this fall?

 

[stilgar]

what are the chances of a ps3 slim this fall?

Slim.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

what are the chances of a ps3 slim this fall?

I'd say between 0-5% at best. It wouldn't help much anyway. The solution to the PS3's problems in Japan isn't a redesign. I mean, honestly, at this point I don't know if there is a "solution". They just have to keep the games rolling, drop the price when they can, and try to hang on for next gen.

 

[justjohn]

I'd say between 0-5% at best. It wouldn't help much anyway. The solution to the PS3's problems in Japan isn't a redesign. I mean, honestly, at this point I don't know if there is a "solution". They just have to keep the games rolling, drop the price when they can, and try to hang on for next gen.

i donk know, maybe i'm being hopeful. i just think a smaller more power efficient ps3 can definetely do some respectable numbers weekly. just llike the psp. at this stage sony probably knows its lost the war but their aim is to make the ps3 relevant again just like the psp.
say what you want about the psp but its no longer a laughing stock in mc threads like a year or two ago.

 

[near]

I'd say between 0-5% at best. It wouldn't help much anyway. The solution to the PS3's problems in Japan isn't a redesign. I mean, honestly, at this point I don't know if there is a "solution". They just have to keep the games rolling, drop the price when they can, and try to hang on for next gen.

Completely agree. Not sure why many expect a slim PS3 to make a huge difference at this stage. The only thing that will increase sales is larger library of games and a few price drops at the least.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

i donk know, maybe i'm being hopeful. i just think a smaller more power efficient ps3 can definetely do some respectable numbers weekly. just llike the psp. at this stage sony probably knows its lost the war but their aim is to make the ps3 relevant again just like the psp.
say what you want about the psp but its no longer a laughing stock in mc threads like a year or two ago.

The PSP was never doing this badly. I mean, a redesign would certainly increase numbers, but what Sony has to ask themselves is if the juice of that redesign is worth the squeeze.

A redesign to make a portable lighter, quicker-loading, with a better screen, and better button design is more of a boon to a portable machine than a case shrink would be for a console.

 

[apujanata]

I'd say between 0-5% at best. It wouldn't help much anyway. The solution to the PS3's problems in Japan isn't a redesign. I mean, honestly, at this point I don't know if there is a "solution". They just have to keep the games rolling, drop the price when they can, and try to hang on for next gen.

Just like Nintendo did with Gamecube ?