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Media Create Sales 6/9 - 6/15
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
Parmenides
Banned
Phife Dawg said:
Playstation
- 12/3/1994 PlayStation [SCPH-1000] introduced. (RRP 39,800 Yen)
- 7/21/1995 PlayStation [SCPH-3000] introduced.((RRP 29,800 Yen )
- 3/28/1996 Fighting Box [SCPH-3500] introduced (RRP 24,800 Yen)
- 6/22/1996 [SCPH-5000] on sale.(Including 1 controller / RRP 19,800 Yen)
Playstation 2
- 3/4/2000 PlayStation 2 [SCPH-10000] introduced. (RRP 39,800 Yen)
- 6/29/2001PlayStation 2 [SCPH-30000] price changes to RRP 35,000 Yen.
-11/29/2001PlayStation 2 [SCPH-30000] price changes to RRP 29,800 Yen.
Playstation 3
-11/11/2006 PlayStation3 introduced (HDD 60GB: Open price / HDD 20GB: RRP 49,980 Yen, including tax)
-11/11/2007 PlayStation3 (HDD 40GB: RRP 39,980 Yen, including tax)
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
donny2112 said:
Possible millionaires for the rest of the year:
DQV (DS)
Pokemon Pla'inum (DS)
Kirby Superstar Deluxe (DS)--will probably hit a million in 2009, but released in 2008.
Animal Crossing (Wii)--if it makes it out and the portable success translates back to the main game.
DQIX (DS)--if it is released in 2008, which it probably won't be.
Pokemon Ranger 2 has an outside outside chance.
Software-wise, companies seem to be throwing as much or more and higher quality at the DS than ever. Whether or not the profile of those games is quite as high, I don't know, but there's no shortage of highly committed efforts coming down the pipeline and still being announced. You should know that simply looking at a <top x> list is no substitute for looking at overall or median software sales--how do those numbers stack up year over year? If sales are reduced, are they reduced because the market is becoming unresponsive, or because there just haven't been all that big titles in the first half of this year?
Just anecdotally most of the new installments of old series have been doing alright; Sim City DS 2 is on par with Sim City DS 1, Taiko 2 is tracking similarly to Taiko 1, the new Suspense game is on par with the previous one, Etrian Odyssey 2 beating the first one. No Tamagotchi-like collapses this year.
I think, though, that to some extent the DS is a victim of its own success. Titles from 2005, 2006, and 2007 are still selling briskly to the point that certain demographics in the market are already tapped. Who on earth would try to make a big profile kart racing game? Where the room for growth in the brain training zone? Can a new piece of Kanji software really light up the charts when the existing software continues to sell well? Same goes for life sims, for that matter. I'm sure it's not just newcomers experiencing this either...
Imagine you're Nintendo. What do you make for the DS? Almost all of your IP has made an appearance and a lot of it is sort of intrinsically limited to one outing per generation. Most of the IPs that can be doubledipped have been. You've already come up with a crapload of new IP...
Still, despite the fact that this thing is a juggernaut and will sustain itself for a long time, new products are needed. I think companies are adapting well. Square-Enix still has DQIX and the other two DQ remakes and in the mean time seems to have coped well by doing some smaller new IPs. Namco still has at least one more Tales of installment. Nintendo can still do another Zelda, another Mario, a 2d Metroid, Smash Bros, Pikmin... and if they stretch they could eek out another Mario Party and maybe a set of Pokemon Remakes... plus, they're still rolling out the new IP. Capcom has historically been more franchise-reliant than most and are continuing on their merry ways on the DS. Sega and Marvelous are both trying real hard to cultivate new IP. D3 seems to split the Simple Series into half brain/language training and half job simulators and they're not running out of ideas anytime soon.
I do think the DS has moved on from massive expansion to riding the wave. Picture the PS2 in late 2003-early 2004. Still tons of new stuff coming out, although most of the old IPs had their big guns fired off at least once. The reigns are mostly in the hands of the smaller and B-tier games and while the number of OMG-MEGATON games coming out is lower the overall pace of releases is blistering.
I'm not at all pessimistic on the DS. I feel better about it now than I did this time last year.
sphinx said:
The DSs successor has been announced and released? Holy shit. Is that what this "PS3" thing at the top of the charts is?
Stumpokapow said:
HK-47 said:
O.K , O.K you got me there but it is not like nintendo is planning anything exciting with the DS still. they delivered with their training games, the nintendogs and now they are done. They might try some interesting stuff this and next year but my prediction is that in 2010, it will be the GBA all over again with shelves full of licensed crap ( not that current DS shelves are far from that)
I don't think DS will get a 2nd wave, nintendo will let the thing sell itself until people get really tired of it.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Year-on-year tracking
Wii: - 205,728
PS3: + 41,303
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Wow I was wrong, big time. I forgot that MGS4 was releasing, and even had it pointed out to me, and still didn't change it. In fact, in a fit of stubbornness, I tried suggesting that it wouldn't make that big of a difference. I'll say it now: I was wrong, big time.
Outside of major releases, I stand by my method. I will need a better method to include major releases in the future.
Here's the damage:
Estimated for last week - Actual = Difference (% Accuracy)
Wii: 45.5k - 45.2k = +.3k (99.2%) <---
PS3: 9.3k - 75.3k = -66k (12.3%) <---
360: 1.85k - 2.2k = -0.3k (85.5%)
==============
Total units off: 66,688
Non-PS3 units off: 600
Next Week:
Wii: 48k
PS3: 38k
360: 2k
Outside of major releases, I stand by my method. I will need a better method to include major releases in the future.
Here's the damage:
Estimated for last week - Actual = Difference (% Accuracy)
Wii: 45.5k - 45.2k = +.3k (99.2%) <---
PS3: 9.3k - 75.3k = -66k (12.3%) <---
360: 1.85k - 2.2k = -0.3k (85.5%)
==============
Total units off: 66,688
Non-PS3 units off: 600
Next Week:
Wii: 48k
PS3: 38k
360: 2k
Case said:
MGS4 will turn out to be good business for konami, so much is true.
As for sony? they are screwed, MSG4 or not, localized, specific bumps mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. I suggest you read a couple of posts by pantherlotus in this very thread.
if PS3 consistenly sells as much or above the Wii in the next months, then I eat crow. Even then, it will take months, perhaps years to turn the PS3 into a realistic console war 1st place contender.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
sphinx said:
Even if it did (it won't), it would require a constant slate of releases in combination with sustaining titles that simply aren't there.
The PS3 will never be a realistic 1st place contender and I would contend that the battle for first was over before February of 2007, much less the day that filthy bastard uttered the words that began with five hundred and ended with ninety-nine. We may not have known it that day, or a year and 4 months ago, but clearly this war was lost before March 2007.
Now, nothing is wrong with 2nd place. Ask GC owners that were treated to Wind Waker, Pikmin, F-Zero, and RE4. PS3 owners will be saying the same next gen in relation to MGS4, GT5, and FFXIII.
And I will be utterly SHOCKED if the PS3 doesn't return to sub 25k hardware weeks within the month, if not two weeks.
PantherLotus said:
I disagree with the bolded.
yes, "$599" was part of the problem but the PS3's fate was sealed when they lost the 3rd parties, because you guys please face the facts and accept that in regards to quantity, the PS3 is a barren desert compared to PS2. The games just aren't there, I don't mean just the good games, the good exclusives will be there and some are already available but you can't be serious if you release 1 or 2 multiplatform and crappy games per months in Japan, the whole PS3 business model is absolutely fucked up. where are the jrpgs? where are the fun,casual, familiar games? where are the epic adventures? where are the sequels to big first party games of the PS2 era? WHERE THE FUCK ARE THEY????? why isn't home ready? why don't we have at least a LBP demo? where are the exclusivity deals with capcom, with namco, with konami (post-MGS4)?
Sony went blind with PS2's success and thought developers wouldn't have other option than to turn to them if they wanted to be succesful.
it's the nintendo of the 90s all over again, sadly for sony, they are not nintendo to work things out without 3rd parties.
milanbaros
Member?
Agree with people saying this is merely a bump, return to sub 20k in a few weeks etc but it should be noted that the PS3 couldn't have done much better this week nor MGS4.
I think it performed at the top end of everyone's expectations.
I think it performed at the top end of everyone's expectations.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Jasoncheng said:
Better late then never.
Anyway, the first who is saying that the DS Lite is dead with the absurde amount of games that are coming, after 23 millions systems sold and still with the majority of games in the top 50, is insane.
The_lascar
Member
jesusraz said:Is cvx or anyone else going to do a full translation of the Top 50 MC and the usual hardware chart layout with totals? Please?
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
PantherLotus said:
Wow. Very interesting read.
The_lascar said:
The_lascar, l'homme des graphes.
The_lascar
Member
I forgot:
Oh and it's in french and I don't have the time for translate. (blue : first week, red : others, blue+red : LTD)
(Famitsu data for this)
Oh and it's in french and I don't have the time for translate. (blue : first week, red : others, blue+red : LTD)
(Famitsu data for this)
Liabe Brave
Member
I appreciate your kind words, PantherLotus, and thanks for bearing with the following gigantic wall of text (should you choose to read it).
Furthermore, restricting PNB to blockbusters causes new problems. The historical maximum hardware delta from week-to-week (apart from supply pulses) I believe is around 120k, from the first holiday seasons for Gamecube and DS Lite. This means that extremely successful software can't have a high PNB, even if it's pushing record amounts of new hardware. In such a record week MGS4 would still only have a PNB of 25%; DQVIII would only get to 5%! Only less popular titles could climb higher, and again this raises the question of where you break off, and why.
Frontloading is very real, but it's neither as severe nor as consistent as you say. The data clearly indicates a more turbulent and opaque situation than you claim (and that you need if the PNB as currently construed is to be meaningful). I think the most telling example might be the extreme difference in legs between GT4 Prologue and GT4. Perhaps that can be explained away; perhaps all the ups and downs can be explained away. But the amount of post hoc argument needed seems vast, and with every auxiliary hypothesis your general model--and the PNB which depends on it--will become less compelling.
I used 1k-selling software just so the effect was clear. The larger point was actually that PNB simply describes a relationship between hardware increases and software sales. It doesn't posit any mechanism(s) for the link, and without that it can't serve as any sort of explanation or result in a fruitful, trustworthy model. For example, how do you separate the effects in a multiple-release week? (Did Devil May Cry 4 drive all the spike, or was some of it due to Disgaea 3?, etc.) Or, how do you set the threshold for "biggest selling titles" in a non-arbitrary fashion? And so on.PantherLotus said:
Furthermore, restricting PNB to blockbusters causes new problems. The historical maximum hardware delta from week-to-week (apart from supply pulses) I believe is around 120k, from the first holiday seasons for Gamecube and DS Lite. This means that extremely successful software can't have a high PNB, even if it's pushing record amounts of new hardware. In such a record week MGS4 would still only have a PNB of 25%; DQVIII would only get to 5%! Only less popular titles could climb higher, and again this raises the question of where you break off, and why.
But it doesn't have much to do with hardware LTD, once installed base is past a particular point (which would be different for each title). As more people buy into a platform, the chances of owners being interested in any particular title goes up. If you're right that virtually everyone who wants MGS4 already had a PS3, then it wouldn't have mattered much if Konami delayed it until the PS3 had a million more owners. Indeed, the PNB could even go up, if the baseline sales for PS3 went down. Again, my general point isn't that PNB is somehow artificial, just that because of this and other confusing factors, it can't carry the analytical freight you're trying to load it with.PantherLotus said:
I disagree, not in principle but quantitatively. Any strong version of this conclusion would require a world where consumers always immediately satisfied their desires, and their desires never changed over time.; weak versions become less and less interesting. I understand that models have to make generalizations in order to be of use; they free us from the "tyranny of the particular". I simply think that the number and extent of simplifications required to empower PNB as a reliable predictor are so large as to leave the model too divorced from reality. For example, I think it would be far harder than you imply to decide what "those types" of games would be. Even your point about high attach rates being worrisome, while generally correct, is subject to important exceptions.PantherLotus said:
This is not true. Here's a random selection of titles, from all points of the sales continuum, both casual and hardcore, and from varied genres, platforms, and years.PantherLotus said:
Code:
Week 1+2
Game Lifetime % of LTD
Diamond/Pearl 5445228 37.10%
NSMB 5192102 22.73%
Brain Age 3640092 2.13%
DQVIII 3538860 79.02%
MKDS 3085574 12.45%
Wii Sports 2973940 8.49%
F. Red/L. Green 2824674 43.97%
FF X 2325215 85.29%
FF XII 2305990 89.24%
MHP2G 2239261 61.45%
SSBB 1639846 66.00%
GT4 1066749 77.25%
Samurai Warriors 1024253 78.57%
MGS2 798179 68.27%
GT4 Prologue 747692 39.80%
Ridge Racer V 611507 49.84%
Taiko Drum Master 578993 15.45%
Yakuza 2 572917 63.30%
DBZ Budokai 543312 72.07%
Ace Combat 4 357742 74.14%
ToLegendia 342779 85.46%
ToSymphonia GC 322779 72.48%
Soul Calibur II PS2 144948 70.67%
Silent Hill 2 124793 73.38%
Baten Kaitos 108615 59.31%
Battalion Wars 55565 54.97%I don't think they're identical; nothing could be further from the truth. My point is that they're both successful, both beyond expectations--no matter what you claim, no one on NeoGAF thought MGS4 would do these numbers, and the people that came closest were called crazy. Wii Sports is, of course, an even more unexpected super-hit for the ages. My point was that its status doesn't somehow make MGS4's lesser success cause for alarm. PNB may tell us something, but you haven't shown how or why it could be a reliable indicator a game's overall impact, much less of overall platform health.PantherLotus said:
Absolutely agreed. Your conclusions are not careful. You figured exactly one PNB, and ran from there.PantherLotus said:
Please accept my apologies. I don't think you are hiding data (you posted an updated version of that chart in this very thread), nor do I think you're ashamed of it. But I think it's disingenuous to say you never made any claims with the chart and its title. You were simply mistaken about the sales curve MK Wii would follow, which doesn't say anything about your character. Predictions are difficult, which is why I try to avoid making very many. Sometimes--as with the weekly hardware predictions--yours are very accurate indeed. MK Wii's downward slope may yet change again, to echo the long tail of WiiFit and more closely follow the path you expected. That possibility is yet another reason to doubt the PNB's efficacy as a predictive tool.PantherLotus said:
First, as I pointed out above, past a certain point installed base has little effect on PNB. Second, I'm well aware that the games are different. That's my entire point. Different games, different reasons, different effects--nearly the same PNB.PantherLotus said:
Because of frontloading, that statement is true for the majority of all software ever. It's so trivial I doubt you would've needed to defend or explicate it as you did. No, you really did claim more than that, you really did claim that the low PNB for this game strongly implied (guaranteed?) low PNB for future games, and therefore inevitably low sales of PS3 hardware. That conclusion seems justified to me (at least for now), but I really can't find the linkage in the middle. Step two is still all question marks.PantherLotus said:
Steiner_Zi
Member
What? Capcom more franchise-reliant than Square-Enix or Namco? In fact, Capcom is one of the least franchise-reliant publishers worldwide.Stumpokapow said:
AnimeTheme
Member
http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/
Some first-day sales data:
- Super Robot Wars A Portable (PSP): 53k (50%)
- Super Mario Statium (Wii): 27k (20%)
- 遙かなる時空の中で4 (PS2 + Wii): 26k (<1k Wii)
Some first-day sales data:
- Super Robot Wars A Portable (PSP): 53k (50%)
- Super Mario Statium (Wii): 27k (20%)
- 遙かなる時空の中で4 (PS2 + Wii): 26k (<1k Wii)
Phife Dawg
Member
Quick and dirty:jesusraz said:Is cvx or anyone else going to do a full translation of the Top 50 MC and the usual hardware chart layout with totals? Please?
31. Animal Crossing, DS (on the rise too, what's with all the DS titles rising?)
32. Kanji Test thingamajic, DS (should be Kanji Brain Test)
33. Metal Gear Solid 3 Suneeku Iitaa, PS2 (The Best - guess having a complex story in a franchise also helps sales in a sense
)34. Riddle Training, DS
35. 99 Tears, DS
36. Mario Party, DS (rising as well)
37. Sim City 2, DS (rising)
38. Ninja Gaiden 2, 360 (dropping like a meteor)
39. Metal Gear Solid Pottaburu Opusu+, PSP (rising as well, though this one is obvious)
40. Front Mission 2089, DS (out next week)
41. Tea Dog's House, DS
lol wtf, never noticed that one)42. Mana Kemia 2, PS2
43. Sekai wa atashi de mawatteru, DS (didn't find it in last weeks thread, so as to prevent confusion I won't translate it)
44. Pokemon Pearl, DS (after the re-entry of Diamond, Pearl was inevitable I guess)
45. Bleach 5, PSP
46. Orochi, PS2
47. Phoenix Wright Gyakuten, DS (new best price)
48. English Training, DS
49. Harvest Moon Shining Sun, DS
50. Luminous Arc 2, DS
edit:
damn Internal Server Errors, that chart wasn't there when I finsihed the list :lol
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Based on the latest Famitsu numbers...
PS3 comparisons: After 83 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 18.1 weeks (July 2, 2000), where PSP was at 50.2 weeks (November 21, 2005), where GCN was at 76.6 weeks (February 27, 2003), and where Wii was at 20.0 weeks (April 14, 2007).
Wii comparisons: After 80 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 82.8 weeks (October 18, 2002), where DS was at 66.8 weeks (March 10, 2006), where PS2 was at 95.3 weeks (December 25, 2001), and where PSP was at 145.9 weeks (September 22, 2007).
Based on the latest Media Create numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 37.7 bring total shares to 70.2 / 29.8. At this week's rates PSP catches up to DS in 513.5 weeks (April 19, 2018). If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate it would catch up in 202.3 weeks (May 1, 2012).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 62.3 / 37.7 (a new PS3 record, not counting 100% pre-Wii weeks) bring gotal shares to 25.7 / 74.3. At this week's rates PS3 catches up to Wii in 136.9 weeks (January 30, 2011). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 54.1 weeks (June 29, 2009).
With PS3's boosted week, Wii's LTD lead over PS3 is set back to nearly what it was two weeks ago.
PS3 comparisons: After 83 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 18.1 weeks (July 2, 2000), where PSP was at 50.2 weeks (November 21, 2005), where GCN was at 76.6 weeks (February 27, 2003), and where Wii was at 20.0 weeks (April 14, 2007).
Wii comparisons: After 80 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 82.8 weeks (October 18, 2002), where DS was at 66.8 weeks (March 10, 2006), where PS2 was at 95.3 weeks (December 25, 2001), and where PSP was at 145.9 weeks (September 22, 2007).
Based on the latest Media Create numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 37.7 bring total shares to 70.2 / 29.8. At this week's rates PSP catches up to DS in 513.5 weeks (April 19, 2018). If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate it would catch up in 202.3 weeks (May 1, 2012).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 62.3 / 37.7 (a new PS3 record, not counting 100% pre-Wii weeks) bring gotal shares to 25.7 / 74.3. At this week's rates PS3 catches up to Wii in 136.9 weeks (January 30, 2011). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 54.1 weeks (June 29, 2009).
With PS3's boosted week, Wii's LTD lead over PS3 is set back to nearly what it was two weeks ago.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I'm a few weeks behind on putting the latest Famitsu software numbers in my database, but ~4.7M and ~3.1M respectively.Olaeh said:
Stumpokapow said:
Of course, but I'm just playing with simple models to try and ask the question, what if we only had the first 2 weeks of sales - could we say anything about expected LTD?
Using the "Week 1 = ~50% LTD" idea:
MGS2 week 1 / LTD / %: 457k / 789k / 57.9%
MGS3 week 1 / LTD / %: 487k / 820k / 59.4%
A small difference in the ratios. What about week 1 and week 2 combined?
MGS2 week 1 + 2 / LTD / %: 545k / 789k / 69.0%
MGS3 week 1 + 2 / LTD / %: 610k / 820k / 74.4%
The difference in the ratios actually increases. This reminds me of the "variation within a group > differences between groups" idea, where the factors that influence week-to-week sales overwhelm any general relationship we could try to establish between week 1 and LTD.
Edit: I guess my point is, no matter what the MGS4 week 2 sales turn out to be, we still won't be able to say much about the eventual LTD.
Edit: Updated 2008 PSPvDS chart
charlequin
Banned
Stumpokapow said:
I agree. There are a lot more companies that have made what I consider to be "serious" efforts on DS now than there were a year and a half ago, as well. Square-Enix, rather than backing off on new IPs (as I think most of us expected), have announced two more for DS in the coming year; Sega's banking some serious titles like World Destruction; Marvelous has done some excellent franchise building with Rune Factory; Namco's got another Tales coming; and so on. If there were third parties that I think have room to do better on DS, it'd probably be Konami and Capcom, both of whom have focused more on the PSP but who have franchises I think would benefit from the DS treatment just lying around (and who I would certainly love to see new IP from.)
(I was going to respond to your question about what else Nintendo could put out on DS, but then later in your post you listed exactly what I would've, so.)
I agree that we're in something comparable to 2004 for PS2 -- it's easy to get the feeling that everything is "winding down," and many of the titles that will forever define the system are out, but announcements are still coming at a good clip, and I expect both the system's best AAA titles and some of the more unexpected curveballs to turn up in the next two years.
sphinx said:
Take a look at what third-party announcements have looked like for DS over the last year, year and a half, and how those games have performed. And there are more semi-major titles already announced than just DQ9 coming.
Steiner_Zi said:
Capcom tends, especially over the last two generations, to operate on a hyperspeed New IP->Milk strategy. Look at the number of new IPs introduced by Capcom on PS2/GCN/GBA which were followed with two to four sequels on the same platform. (Off the top of my head: DMC, Onimusha, MMBN, Viewtiful Joe, Gyakuten Saiban.) Capcom's treated the DS as an extension of this strategy and literally released only one title that wasn't a continuation of a GBA franchise or a spinoff/port from a major console IP.
Wasn't it near the end of 2001? Might not be "nearly 2 years" either way, but it's a stretch to say that PS3 has been out for "nearly 2 years" as well.Phife Dawg said:
Ok, so that's 16 months, whereas PS3 has been out for about 19.Parmenides said:
And yet it's still way ahead of PS2.iidesuyo said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Steiner_Zi said:
Capcom's DS outings:
- 4x Gyakutan Saiban + 4x best price + at least a few double best price.
- 5x Mega Man Star Force
- 2x Mega Man ZX
- 2x Wanatame (arcade port)
- 1x Mega Man Battle Network
- 1x Resident Evil
...
- 1x Stock Trader
WOOHOO!
Square Enix, by contrast, has Yosumin, DS Style series, It's a Wonderful World, Sigma Harmonics, The Game With No Name, and Final Fantasy Fables (basically a new IP).
Namco has leveraged traditional IP in new ways; Pac-Pix as an early effort, Nodame Cantabile (licenced though it is), Game Center CX, a few language training games, Tamagotchi Corner shop, etc.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Here's the week starting just before that, and the next five. Both trackers.
OK, so I'm still trying to come up with a way to say something reasonable about a sales pattern given the first 2 weeks of sales.
Looking at MGS3, an exponential decay function based on the first 2 weeks severely underestimates the actual sales pattern, because the drop between 1st and 2nd weeks is much more than just an exponential decay.
What if we discarded week 1, and use week 2 and 3? An exponential decay function actually overestimates the actual sales pattern.
What happens if we peg week 1 sales and use the average of the decay rates?
The first 2 weeks of sales may not be enough to say much about LTD, but perhaps the first 3 weeks of sales may be?
Edit: I know that an exponential decay function is overly simplistic...
Looking at MGS3, an exponential decay function based on the first 2 weeks severely underestimates the actual sales pattern, because the drop between 1st and 2nd weeks is much more than just an exponential decay.
What if we discarded week 1, and use week 2 and 3? An exponential decay function actually overestimates the actual sales pattern.
What happens if we peg week 1 sales and use the average of the decay rates?
The first 2 weeks of sales may not be enough to say much about LTD, but perhaps the first 3 weeks of sales may be?
Edit: I know that an exponential decay function is overly simplistic...
Liabe Brave
Member
Your quest for perfection is hopeless. I totally understand that you may not have wanted to read my giant post above, but here's the data from it that's germane to your decay function attempts:liuelson said:
Code:
Week 1+2
Game Lifetime % of LTD
Diamond/Pearl 5445228 37.10%
NSMB 5192102 22.73%
Brain Age 3640092 2.13%
DQVIII 3538860 79.02%
MKDS 3085574 12.45%
Wii Sports 2973940 8.49%
F. Red/L. Green 2824674 43.97%
FF X 2325215 85.29%
FF XII 2305990 89.24%
MHP2G 2239261 61.45%
SSBB 1639846 66.00%
GT4 1066749 77.25%
Samurai Warriors 1024253 78.57%
MGS2 798179 68.27%
GT4 Prologue 747692 39.80%
Ridge Racer V 611507 49.84%
Taiko Drum Master 578993 15.45%
Yakuza 2 572917 63.30%
DBZ Budokai 543312 72.07%
Ace Combat 4 357742 74.14%
ToLegendia 342779 85.46%
ToSymphonia GC 322779 72.48%
Soul Calibur II PS2 144948 70.67%
Silent Hill 2 124793 73.38%
Baten Kaitos 108615 59.31%
Battalion Wars 55565 54.97%You can arbitrarily increase the accuracy by including progressively more weeks, but I doubt the returns on this approach. My gut feeling is that it would take five or six weeks to really get a good approximation, and for predictive modeling that's not so hot. Even I, dumb as I am, could probably make some really good guesses on LTD given the first month and a half. (Though stuff like Brain Age and Taiko Drum Master would still defeat me and the model.)liuelson said:
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Shouldn't you use data from previous PS3 top-sellers?Liabe Brave said:
Liabe Brave
Member
liuelson is trying to create a predictor for software in general, not PS3 software. Still, I'd be willing to bet the point still stands: legs are variable. Since "popular PS3 software in Japan" is such a small class, it won't be as variable as for a wider survey, but over time it will complexify. I leave collation of the actual data as an exercise for the reader.XiaNaphryz said: