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Media Create Sales: August 16-22

Cosmonaut X

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BladeoftheImmortal said:
So I'm actually thinking the game will do better than FFXIII. 2 million easy I would say.
IMO, the game outselling XIII would be a fairly major upset - when has a FF sidegame (now matter how polished) ever outsold a mainline FF?
 

ULTROS!

People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
Aug 17, 2009
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Cosmonaut X said:
IMO, the game outselling XIII would be a fairly major upset - when has a FF sidegame (now matter how polished) ever outsold a mainline FF?
In Japan's context? I believe its Final Fantasy X-2 (1.96m) as compared to Final Fantasy XIII (1.89m).

reference
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
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Baki said:
Didn't MGS4 (including re-release) have something like an 800K LTD?
Enterbrain numbers:
MGS3 - 819k
MGS3 Subsistence - 133k
MGS3 The Best - 62k

vs

MGS4 - 706k
MGS4 The Best - 64k
 

duckroll

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Jun 7, 2004
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BladeoftheImmortal said:
I feel like it'll do gangbusters. It's a mainishline FF by the guy that did Kingdom Hearts and FFVII (Character designs). The style seems to be going back to the FFVII "dark and gritty badass steampunk" aesthetics also.
Well let me quantify this in terms of factors. Nomura is the creator and director of the Kingdom Hearts series, yes. This is the same KH series where the only title to do over a million in Japan is KH2, and that sold about 1.1 million.

Nomura is also the character designer of FFVIII, FFX, FFX-2, and FFXIII. So that's not really saying much more in Versus' favor here. It's not like FFXIII didn't have Nomura as a character designer.

So I'm actually thinking the game will do better than FFXIII. 2 million easy I would say.
Once again, I'm not sure why you would think that. The reasons you gave simply do not indicate in any way that Versus will easily outsell FFXIII. What is exactly in its favor to make it sell more than FFXIII?

Also, the hype is pretty killer for this outing, hype seems even bigger than FFXIII to me.
You know what else had a shitload of internet hype? Scott Pilgrim.
 

duckroll

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Jun 7, 2004
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Baki said:
I was right about the 800K+ LTD though. :p
:lol
Yes, but I'm just pointing out that any boost MGS4 gets from a budget re-release is nullified by the fact that previous MGS games all had re-releases and budget re-releases as well!
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
21,700
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0
nipponsalesage.blogspot.com
farnham said:
As weak as Wii sales might be in the moment. its not like PS3 is going to overtake wii sales anytime soon either. Wii will get the Nintendo releases and those will sell millions like they used to and third parties will put nothing on the wii just like they did since the beginning of the generation.

Again though, I'm not just talking about hardware sales. I'm talking 3rd party software announced this year and the upcoming release lists. Yes, 3rd party support has never been good on the Wii, but it has never been virtually empty. I would argue that in years past (well, after the launch stuff), the announcements/release lists were actually relatively even for the 2 platforms- but since 2009 when Wii had its best year in terms of 3rd party support it is completely dead. Last year at this time, MH Tri had just came out, and we knew that Tales of Graces, Samurai Warriors 3, and Resident Evil Darkside Chronicles were firm holiday 2010 releases. This year we know of literally nothing besides DQX and Inazuma Break- one game that has been announced for almost two years and another game people already suspected was a Wii game. Think about that- we know of zero 3rd party games for Wii that have formally been unveiled that would even break 50K! If that's not dead or dying by a traditional support/mindshare standpoint I don't know what would be.
 

farnham

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Nov 18, 2006
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schuelma said:
Again though, I'm not just talking about hardware sales. I'm talking 3rd party software announced this year and the upcoming release lists. Yes, 3rd party support has never been good on the Wii, but it has never been virtually empty. I would argue that in years past (well, after the launch stuff), the announcements/release lists were actually relatively even for the 2 platforms- but since 2009 when Wii had its best year in terms of 3rd party support it is completely dead. Last year at this time, MH Tri had just came out, and we knew that Tales of Graces, Samurai Warriors 3, and Resident Evil Darkside Chronicles were firm holiday 2010 releases. This year we know of literally nothing besides DQX and Inazuma Break- one game that has been announced for almost two years and another game people already suspected was a Wii game. Think about that- we know of zero 3rd party games for Wii that have formally been unveiled that would even break 50K! If that's not dead or dying by a traditional support/mindshare standpoint I don't know what would be.
thirdparties did not sell well on wii and wii did not succeed because of thirdparties so its pretty irrelevant at this point.
 

duckroll

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Jun 7, 2004
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Let's have a look at the Ryu ga Gotoku series (all Enterbrain numbers):

PS2:
RgG - 345k
RgG The Best - 484k + 53k (repackaged release)
RgG2 - 572k
RgG2 The Best - 255k

PS3:
RgG Kenzan - 270k
RgG Kenzan The Best - 64k
RgG3 - 509k
RgG3 The Best - 79k
RgG4 - 552k

Here we can see how the PS3 is regaining lost ground. RgG3 exhibits a much smaller scale issue of what we see with FFXIII and MGS4, where it sold less than RgG2, but not by a very huge margin. But with RgG4 we're seeing growth and expansion again, with title reaching the RgG2 level of sales. It might even surpass RgG2's LTD when the yearly chart of 2010 is out.

Unfortunately, while the original release sales are back to speed, it seems the budget release is suffering significantly. I'm not really sure why this is so, but there's basically no chance of RgG3 The Best reaching RgG2's levels. At best we'll be seeing it over 100k by the end of 2010.

537k -> 255k -> ~100k. It looks like each main RgG game is losing half of the budget re-release sales. Could this be indication that while the core fanbase of the games is still strong (people who buy the original release to play it as it comes out), the word of mouth is no longer driving more casual gamers into checking out the games when they're cheap? I remember with RgG and RgG2, the buzz was definitely what gave the games massive legs initially, followed by great budget sales. This does not seem to be the case any longer.

What do you guys think?
 
Nov 4, 2009
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duckroll said:
Well let me quantify this in terms of factors. Nomura is the creator and director of the Kingdom Hearts series, yes. This is the same KH series where the only title to do over a million in Japan is KH2, and that sold about 1.1 million.
But the whole series has been in a decline since FFVII. I'd say going back to that aesthetic has a lot of people excited.

Nomura is also the character designer of FFVIII, FFX, FFX-2, and FFXIII. So that's not really saying much more in Versus' favor here. It's not like FFXIII didn't have Nomura as a character designer.
Certainly doesn't hurt it, though.


Once again, I'm not sure why you would think that. The reasons you gave simply do not indicate in any way that Versus will easily outsell FFXIII. What is exactly in its favor to make it sell more than FFXIII?



You know what else had a shitload of internet hype? Scott Pilgrim.
We shall see when we see, whenever the fuck that is.

Avatar had a lot of internet hype too, so there :p
 

duckroll

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BladeoftheImmortal said:
But the whole series has been in a decline since FFVII. I'd say going back to that aesthetic has a lot of people excited.
I'm not sure that's true at all though. Versus is based on real cities from around the world. The art direction is "real world + fantasy". I'm not seeing any steampunk either. I'm a huge Nomura fan, and I've been following Versus a lot. I don't really think there's enough information to accurately say that the game is going to look anything like FFVII when it's fully revealed and marketed.

More importantly, it's not going to play like a FF game. It will play like a KH game. That imo, has more going against it than for it, since S-E's sales history with unconventional FF games and action RPGs doesn't really prove in any way that it will outsell a normal FF game.

Avatar had a lot of internet hype too, so there :p
Avatar actually had a lot of internet anti-hype. Dances with Smurfs, LOL 3D MOVIE, James Cameron is a hack, etc.
 

Spiegel

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duckroll said:
Okay, that huge boost still puts it significantly behind MGS3. What's your point? :lol
I was only updating your information :p


But I find pretty impressive that the game sold 64k in the first six months (Mid June-December) and 82k in the next six months after that (Jan-Jun)
 

duckroll

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Spiegel said:
I was only updating your information :p
Yes, I appreciate that too! :)

But I find pretty impressive that the game sold 64k in the first six months (Mid June-December) and 82k in the next six months after that (Jan-Jun)
Yeah, there's definitely a huge boost, but I guess Peace Walker being in full marketing swing in Japan probably helped quite a bit.
 
Nov 4, 2009
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duckroll said:
I'm not sure that's true at all though. Versus is based on real cities from around the world. The art direction is "real world + fantasy". I'm not seeing any steampunk either. I'm a huge Nomura fan, and I've been following Versus a lot. I don't really think there's enough information to accurately say that the game is going to look anything like FFVII when it's fully revealed and marketed.

More importantly, it's not going to play like a FF game. It will play like a KH game. That imo, has more going against it than for it, since S-E's sales history with unconventional FF games and action RPGs doesn't really prove in any way that it will outsell a normal FF game.



Avatar actually had a lot of internet anti-hype. Dances with Smurfs, LOL 3D MOVIE, James Cameron is a hack, etc.
Inception then.

EDIT: i don't have the FFVII numbers on me, but if I recall correctly, it was like 2.5 mil+ and each iteration after that was lower. Where do you get your numbers anyway? I can look them up for both of us if that would be good.
 

Cosmonaut X

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farnham said:
thirdparties did not sell well on wii and wii did not succeed because of thirdparties so its pretty irrelevant at this point.
Well, that may well be true, but it doesn't change the point schuelma is making - in Japan at least, third parties have deserted the system and gamers looking for titles outside of Nintendo's releases are going to be seeing an utterly barren release list (barring the odd title) from now until Wii 2/Power Wii/whatever releases.

Also, simply saying that Wii succeeded without third parties and will still do (relatively) well without them is missing the blindingly obvious point that if the console struggles on for another couple of years in this parlous state, Nintendo are going to have a monumental task bringing developers, publishers and gamers back to their next system.

Their best option now would seem to be to leapfrog Sony and Microsoft technologically - a PS3+ level system should be doable for under $300 now - while they are tied up trying to extend the lifespan of their moneysinks. Build it to be "industry-standard" enough to allow for quick, easy up-ports of third-party titles and conform to gamer and developer expectations re: online functionality.
 

duckroll

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BladeoftheImmortal said:
Inception then.
I really don't see where this is going. Inception isn't breaking any records. It did very well for what it was, and like I said, no one realistically expects Versus to bomb or anything. What I'm failing to see is what indicates that it will easily do better than FFXIII. Can it do better? Sure, there's a chance. Is there a lot of evidence which points to it doing better? Not that I can see.

I'll certainly welcome a discussion which presents an analysis of why it would sell better than FFXIII. I'm just saying that I don't see it right now. I'm actually not even sure if it is worth discussing at this point because the game has not been shown in any playable form whatsoever, and it's really silly to try and draw conclusions on sales from how people are reacting to old videos and random screenshots when it's obvious the game is still quite a while away.

If S-E is not committed to marketing the game at all yet, there's really no point debating how much the game could sell. There are too many factors which are important to sales forecasts which are simply non-existent or unknown at this point for Versus.
 
Nov 4, 2009
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duckroll said:
I really don't see where this is going. Inception isn't breaking any records. It did very well for what it was, and like I said, no one realistically expects Versus to bomb or anything. What I'm failing to see is what indicates that it will easily do better than FFXIII. Can it do better? Sure, there's a chance. Is there a lot of evidence which points to it doing better? Not that I can see.

I'll certainly welcome a discussion which presents an analysis of why it would sell better than FFXIII. I'm just saying that I don't see it right now. I'm actually not even sure if it is worth discussing at this point because the game has not been shown in any playable form whatsoever, and it's really silly to try and draw conclusions on sales from how people are reacting to old videos and random screenshots when it's obvious the game is still quite a while away.

If S-E is not committed to marketing the game at all yet, there's really no point debating how much the game could sell. There are too many factors which are important to sales forecasts which are simply non-existent or unknown at this point for Versus.
I'll agree to that. Not enough information both ways. And I was wrong too, it wasn't till FFVIII that the series went down. was 3.2ish for ffVII and 3.5 for FFVIII then 9 did about 2.7 mil and ffx did 2.3 ffxii did 2.3 also.

Anywho, we can take this back up after TGS. I hope it's playable at TGS.
 

duckroll

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BladeoftheImmortal said:
Anywho, we can take this back up after TGS. I hope it's playable at TGS.
It's not playable. There will only be a 1 minute long combined trailer of Versus and Agito. The Versus footage will mostly be the same areas shown in the 3 screenshots recently. There will be no user interface (menus, etc) shown either, because the game is not ready to be shown. Kitase also said that they cannot commit to any release date, not even for the year 2011.
 
Nov 4, 2009
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duckroll said:
It's not playable. There will only be a 1 minute long combined trailer of Versus and Agito. The Versus footage will mostly be the same areas shown in the 3 screenshots recently. There will be no user interface (menus, etc) shown either, because the game is not ready to be shown. Kitase also said that they cannot commit to any release date, not even for the year 2011.
Well, shit. Hasn't this been in development since FFXIII? What have they been doing? (Besides making Birth by Sleep and 358/2 days)
 

duckroll

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BladeoftheImmortal said:
Well, shit. Hasn't this been in development since FFXIII? What have they been doing? (Besides making Birth by Sleep and 358/2 days)
Obviously reading GAF too much and trying to argue that it will outsell FFXIII! You better get back to work, I wanna play Versus before I die of old age! :lol
 

gundamkyoukai

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duckroll said:
It's not playable. There will only be a 1 minute long combined trailer of Versus and Agito. The Versus footage will mostly be the same areas shown in the 3 screenshots recently. There will be no user interface (menus, etc) shown either, because the game is not ready to be shown. Kitase also said that they cannot commit to any release date, not even for the year 2011.
Which goes to show how sad SE is this gen when comes to console gaming.
What even worst is that the games they bring out was not even that good.
 
Nov 4, 2009
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duckroll said:
Obviously reading GAF too much and trying to argue that it will outsell FFXIII! You better get back to work, I wanna play Versus before I die of old age! :lol
I've got to defend my title, damnit. Wouldn't you say my English is exceptionally good for a Japanese citizen?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Famitsu (as of 15/08/10)
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |[GCN]Mario Sunshine| [WII]Mario Galaxy |[WII]Mario Galaxy 2|       difference      |
|    |     (19/07/02)    |    (01/11/07)     |     (27/05/10)    |                       |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  SMG2-SMS |  SMG2-SMG |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|  1 |  280.610|  280.610|  256.431|  256.431|  337.569|  337.569|     56.959|     81.228|
|  2 |  102.576|  383.186|   78.439|  334.690|  116.153|  453.722|     70.536|    119.032|
|  3 |   59.975|  443.161|   43.317|  378.007|   71.803|  525.525|     82.364|    147.518|
|  4 |   39.562|  482.723|   37.484|  415.491|   49.304|  574.829|     92.106|    159.338|
|  5 |   43.921|  526.644|   36.354|  451.845|   38.461|  613.290|     86.646|    161.445|
|  6 |   22.794|  549.438|   48.750|  500.595|   30.470|  643.760|     94.322|    143.165|
|  7 |   18.588|  568.026|   70.541|  571.136|   21.122|  664.882|     96.856|     93.746|
|  8 |   13.739|  581.765|  109.029|  680.165|   15.513|  680.395|     98.630|        230|
|  9 |    9.891|  591.656|   67.519|  747.684|   17.899|  698.294|    106.638|    -49.390|
| 10 |    8.929|  600.585|   62.017|  809.701|   14.057|  712.351|    111.766|    -97.350|
| 11 |    8.820|  609.405|   17.617|  827.318|   12.117|  724.468|    115.063|   -102.850|
| 12 |    6.827|  616.232|   16.643|  843.961|   16.192|  740.660|    124.428|   -103.301|
| 13 |    5.927|  622.159|    9.056|  853.017|         |         |           |           |
| 14 |    6.146|  628.305|    7.234|  860.251|         |         |           |           |
| 15 |    5.194|  633.499|    6.344|  866.595|         |         |           |           |
| 16 |    5.112|  638.611|    5.868|  872.463|         |         |           |           |
| 17 |    4.366|  642.977|    4.357|  876.820|         |         |           |           |
| 18 |    2.156|  645.133|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 19 |    2.651|  647.784|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 20 |    2.721|  650.505|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 21 |    3.481|  653.986|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 22 |    4.446|  658.432|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 23 |    9.965|  668.397|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 24 |    9.043|  677.440|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |  SMG2-SMS |  SMG2-SMG |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|  1 |  677.440|  677.440|  747.684|  747.684|  740.660|  740.660|     63.220|     -7.024|
|  2 |   84.358|  761.798|  197.442|  945.106|         |         |           |           |
|  3 |   28.191|  789.989|   27.218|  972.324|         |         |           |           |
|  4 |        -|        -|    5.629|  977.953|         |         |           |           |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
| LTD|        -|  789.989|        -|  977.953|        -|  740.660|    -49.329|   -237.293|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. [N64] Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) - 162.111 / 1.639.921
2. [NDS] Super Mario 64 DS (Nintendo) - 120.062 / 1.179.706
3. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 256.431 / 977.953
4. [GCN] Super Mario Sunshine (Nintendo) - 280.610 / 789.989
5. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 337.569 / 740.660
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Can anyone tell me a logical reason why would MH3G be mentioned at all before MHP3 is dated, released, hit major milestone and slowed down in sales?
Announcement of PSP MHP3 before Wii MH3 hits West
Announcement of Wii MH3G before PSP MHP3 hits Japan
Announcement of PS3 MH3G before Wii MH3G hits Japan or West

Yup, that's the Capcom we know.
 

Spiegel

Member
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
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Capcom waited 8 months to announce MHP3 after Tri was released in Japan. I can't see why people are betting (hoping?) for them to announce TriG before releasing MHP3
 

Cosmonaut X

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Jun 5, 2006
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Moor-Angol said:
100k first week ? rotfl...

it would be a success if 100k LTD
Pretty much - Metroid has been a non-event in Japan for quite some time now. If Other M surpasses 100k, it will be quite an achievement.
 

farnham

Banned
Nov 18, 2006
18,018
0
0
34
Germany (Bayern)
Cosmonaut X said:
Well, that may well be true, but it doesn't change the point schuelma is making - in Japan at least, third parties have deserted the system and gamers looking for titles outside of Nintendo's releases are going to be seeing an utterly barren release list (barring the odd title) from now until Wii 2/Power Wii/whatever releases.

we had a long thread a few days/weeks ago

the consensus was thirdparties western and eastern have both abandoned the wii (even though its debatable if they have abandoned it since they were never really on board in the first place) and that the wii got successful thanks to nintendos first party efforts.

so yeah shuelmas points are valid. but it should not be formulated as the wii is dead but rather "wii third parties are dead" or "wii is dead for thirdparties"



Cosmonaut X said:
Also, simply saying that Wii succeeded without third parties and will still do (relatively) well without them is missing the blindingly obvious point that if the console struggles on for another couple of years in this parlous state, Nintendo are going to have a monumental task bringing developers, publishers and gamers back to their next system.
or they try to ramp up their own development resources (like they are already doing) and make more contracts with thirdparties and publish their games in order to keep the platform afloat until they get ready for the next machine.

this gen will not be 10 years. it began in 2005 and it will end in 2012 or 2013 anyway. they just need to make some more casual hits like wii fit 3, wii sports 3 and wii relax alongside with some hardcore hits from donkeykong, kirby, mario to zelda to keep the wii from dying in 2011 and 2012 and then they will probably have their next thing ready.


will third parties jump on it ? obviously not. it will only get worse as third parties will probably bank on ps4 and the next xbox once again. so its better to have a huge first party development force to offset that disadvantage



Cosmonaut X said:
Their best option now would seem to be to leapfrog Sony and Microsoft technologically - a PS3+ level system should be doable for under $300 now - while they are tied up trying to extend the lifespan of their moneysinks. Build it to be "industry-standard" enough to allow for quick, easy up-ports of third-party titles and conform to gamer and developer expectations re: online functionality.
well its nintendos choice to try to pull off a wii again or try to go the gamecube route and try to harness the thirdparty multiplats

but i personally think that the gamecube is a good indication how thirdparties will treat a ps3 level system that can receive ports from other HD consoles. they will just not give a shit. especially if the userbase of that said system is 0.

same with the audience. who will buy that said machine. nintendo fans ? maybe. but there are 20 million of those people tops. casuals ? no probably not. they hopped on the wii for the wii sports, wii fit and mario kart games but they probably wont be there until there is another good argument to buy another console (something that is beyond motion controls)
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
duckroll said:
What do you guys think?
That this will be also the case with Monster Hunter Portable 3rd.
Spiegel said:
Capcom waited 8 months to announce MHP3 after Tri was released in Japan. I can't see why people are betting (hoping?) for them to announce TriG before releasing MHP3
Because it's Capcom. If Monster Hunter 3G is planned for next summer the announcement won't be far away, if it's planned for next winter the announcement can wait.
 

farnham

Banned
Nov 18, 2006
18,018
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Germany (Bayern)
BladeoftheImmortal said:
On top of that, they don't really care about Team ninja either. Other M is pretty much for the western audience.
ruh oh. they made a big mistake then (not making it a first person game, 3d space with dpad, weird japanese anime esque cg cutscenes)

as i already said somewhere else

trainwreck in the making

nintendo should be ashamed of themselves not making prime 4
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
21,700
0
0
nipponsalesage.blogspot.com
farnham said:
or they try to ramp up their own development resources (like they are already doing) and make more contracts with thirdparties and publish their games in order to keep the platform afloat until they get ready for the next machine.

What possible evidence is there that they are doing this for the Wii?
 

Cosmonaut X

Member
Jun 5, 2006
9,604
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farnham said:
or they try to ramp up their own development resources (like they are already doing) and make more contracts with thirdparties and publish their games in order to keep the platform afloat until they get ready for the next machine.

this gen will not be 10 years. it began in 2005 and it will end in 2012 or 2013 anyway. they just need to make some more casual hits like wii fit 3, wii sports 3 and wii relax alongside with some hardcore hits from donkeykong, kirby, mario to zelda to keep the wii from dying in 2011 and 2012 and then they will probably have their next thing ready.
I think you would have to assume a title under wraps of Pokemon-scale (in terms of how that revitalised the Game Boy) to keep the Wii afloat until 2013, and I think that's unlikely. Retreads of their Wii xxx line and fan-pleasing titles like Skyward Sword or Donkey Kong Returns aren't going to keep the system alive in Japan for another three years.

will third parties jump on it ? obviously not. it will only get worse as third parties will probably bank on ps4 and the next xbox once again. so its better to have a huge first party development force to offset that disadvantage
If the lesson they take away this gen is that they just need more first-party software, then they're only really understanding half of the problem. Yes, they need more flexibility and depth in their releases, but to really take the market in the way they want, they need to get third parties onboard. Just ramping up internal development and deciding to sit tight and wait for third parties to appear would be a disaster, especially given how aggressively their competitors are courting said companies.

well its nintendos choice to try to pull off a wii again or try to go the gamecube route and try to harness the thirdparty multiplats

but i personally think that the gamecube is a good indication how thirdparties will treat a ps3 level system that can receive ports from other HD consoles. they will just not give a shit. especially if the userbase of that said system is 0.

same with the audience. who will buy that said machine. nintendo fans ? maybe. but there are 20 million of those people tops. casuals ? no probably not. they hopped on the wii for the wii sports, wii fit and mario kart games but they probably wont be there until there is another good argument to buy another console (something that is beyond motion controls)
...and what about the 3DS option - a powerful machine with industry-standard hardware features but a unique hook? Or do you not see that as a possibility?
 

farnham

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Cosmonaut X said:
I think you would have to assume a title under wraps of Pokemon-scale (in terms of how that revitalised the Game Boy) to keep the Wii afloat until 2013, and I think that's unlikely. Retreads of their Wii xxx line and fan-pleasing titles like Skyward Sword or Donkey Kong Returns aren't going to keep the system alive in Japan for another three years.
Yeah fan pleasing hardcore titles will not be the big sellers. but the Wiixx line has been pretty good so far. the newest title wii party looks like it will do a million soon and they might have wii relax up their sleeve for this holiday.


Cosmonaut X said:
If the lesson they take away this gen is that they just need more first-party software, then they're only really understanding half of the problem. Yes, they need more flexibility and depth in their releases, but to really take the market in the way they want, they need to get third parties onboard. Just ramping up internal development and deciding to sit tight and wait for third parties to appear would be a disaster, especially given how aggressively their competitors are courting said companies.
But third parties will just not move from their position. It is impossible for nintendo to spill the beans for their hardware secrets as they wont let competitors get a sneak at it. And nintendo said that they want to disrupt the market once again with their next machine. So what does that mean. Third parties will leave nintendo out of the equasion once again and once they have made their investments on xbox 720 and PS4 they wont back out.

Making a gamecube like approach (following the industry trends) did not work with the gamecube and will not work with the next gen console. it will just mean that a mere 20 million people buy it for nintendo games and that third parties will say "its not selling". they need the casual crowd once again for next gen and to capture them they have no choice then keep things secret and go against the third party agenda.

And if you look at it. has the wii been a disaster for nintendo so far ? I dont think so.


Cosmonaut X said:
...and what about the 3DS option - a powerful machine with industry-standard hardware features but a unique hook? Or do you not see that as a possibility?
3DS is a Nintendo Handheld. There is no established Rival in that sector that ever did shake nintendos dominance. PSP did quite well but it is doubtful that they will try again at this point. Also 3DS is hardly a industry standard hardware. it has two screens a touch screen and a 3D screen that needs not 3D glasses. I have never seen a similar hardware to that outside of the DS and the DS was nintendos own "odd system" back in the days.
 

schuelma

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farnham said:
the general output has definately increased for one

Really? Right now we know of one Wii project made by a Nintendo EAD internal team- Zelda. If anything, I would say Nintendo is winding down its Wii support.
 

Cosmonaut X

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farnham said:
But third parties will just not move from their position. It is impossible for nintendo to spill the beans for their hardware secrets as they wont let competitors get a sneak at it. And nintendo said that they want to disrupt the market once again with their next machine. So what does that mean. Third parties will leave nintendo out of the equasion once again and once they have made their investments on xbox 720 and PS4 they wont back out.
...except that letting third parties in at an earlier stage of hardware development to secure earlier support is exactly what they appear to have done with the 3DS!

And if you look at it. has the wii been a disaster for nintendo so far ? I dont think so.
No, but it hasn't been the success it should have/could have been if it had better industry support.

3DS is a Nintendo Handheld. There is no established Rival in that sector that ever did shake nintendos dominance. PSP did quite well but it is doubtful that they will try again at this point. Also 3DS is hardly a industry standard hardware. it has two screens a touch screen and a 3D screen that needs not 3D glasses. I have never seen a similar hardware to that outside of the DS and the DS was nintendos own "odd system" back in the days.
"Hardware-features" meaning things like shader support, allowing third parties to bring across properties like Street Fighter IV easily, quickly and in versions not far off their console counterparts. That kind of ease-of-development is what third parties are going to be looking for, rather than being presented with yet another awkward proposition like Flipper.
 

farnham

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schuelma said:
Really? Right now we know of one Wii project made by a Nintendo EAD internal team- Zelda. If anything, I would say Nintendo is winding down its Wii support.
since when did we ever get full disclosure of nintendos development process in the first place

i was talking about the output they have shown this gen compared to the out put on the gamecube. i dont know how it will pan out in 2011 and 2012 since its not e3 2011 yet
 

cvxfreak

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I'm doubting that Monster Hunter 3G comes to Wii at all, or that if it did, it would be an exclusive. 3DS and PS3 are the other realistic options for such a game.

My doubts stem from this reasoning: What would Capcom have to gain from MH3G on Wii in terms of pushing the franchise forward? Capcom isn't even in a position to release a Best Price version of MH3 because they haven't even gotten rid of those year-old copies of the standalone or even the controller bundles. Meanwhile, Biohazard 4 Wii Edition and Umbrella Chronicles are being re-re-released as Best Price games next month for ¥2100 each. Their first Best Price re-releases came within a year of launch. Even Biohazard 0 and remake were Best Priced.

It's pretty clear that MH has a good future on portable systems, and it just so happens that a new one is hitting this year or early next year. Since MH3's original release, we've also seen the PS3 become on-par with the Wii in terms of current sales. Even Sengoku Basara 3 gives Capcom reason to consider the PS3 for a potential MH3G. So does RE5, which is a near million seller.
 

farnham

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Cosmonaut X said:
...except that letting third parties in at an earlier stage of hardware development to secure earlier support is exactly what they appear to have done with the 3DS!

3DS is a different situation as i said. it is a nintendo handheld and that has never failed to be dominant.



Cosmonaut X said:
No, but it hasn't been the success it should have/could have been if it had better industry support.
Shoulda Coulda Woulda.

Sure everything can be better. It is still the most successful nintendo console in the history. It sold more then the NES.


Cosmonaut X said:
"Hardware-features" meaning things like shader support, allowing third parties to bring across properties like Street Fighter IV easily, quickly and in versions not far off their console counterparts. That kind of ease-of-development is what third parties are going to be looking for, rather than being presented with yet another awkward proposition like Flipper.
Its not like there is no way for SFIV to appear on the wii. that game exists on the iphone and the 3DS. its that third parties just dont care to port it over.


cvxfreak said:
I'm doubting that Monster Hunter 3G comes to Wii at all, or that if it did, it would be an exclusive. 3DS and PS3 are the other realistic options for such a game.

My doubts stem from this reasoning: What would Capcom have to gain from MH3G on Wii in terms of pushing the franchise forward? Capcom isn't even in a position to release a Best Price version of MH3 because they haven't even gotten rid of those year-old copies of the standalone or even the controller bundles. Meanwhile, Biohazard 4 Wii Edition and Umbrella Chronicles are being re-re-released as Best Price games next month for ¥2100 each. Their first Best Price re-releases came within a year of launch. Even Biohazard 0 and remake were Best Priced.

It's pretty clear that MH has a good future on portable systems, and it just so happens that a new one is hitting this year or early next year. Since MH3's original release, we've also seen the PS3 become on-par with the Wii in terms of current sales. Even Sengoku Basara 3 gives Capcom reason to consider the PS3 for a potential MH3G. So does RE5, which is a near million seller.
Monster hUnter 3G will not appear on wii. Capcom has abandoned the system a long time ago with Monster hunter 3 being probably the last game they even developed for it. Do they have any game announced for the system currently ? no.
 

[Nintex]

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schuelma said:
Really? Right now we know of one Wii project made by a Nintendo EAD internal team- Zelda. If anything, I would say Nintendo is winding down its Wii support.
And that's only because of the new graphics according to Aonuma.

farnham said:
nintendo should be ashamed of themselves not making prime 4
If Retro Studios started another Prime project, they would've had to hire even more freelancers and contracters than they brought in for Prime 3.

And asking a studio to do something they don't really want to do is just waiting for disaster.
 

cw_sasuke

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cvxfreak said:
I'm doubting that Monster Hunter 3G comes to Wii at all, or that if it did, it would be an exclusive. 3DS and PS3 are the other realistic options for such a game.

My doubts stem from this reasoning: What would Capcom have to gain from MH3G on Wii in terms of pushing the franchise forward? Capcom isn't even in a position to release a Best Price version of MH3 because they haven't even gotten rid of those year-old copies of the standalone or even the controller bundles. Meanwhile, Biohazard 4 Wii Edition and Umbrella Chronicles are being re-re-released as Best Price games next month for ¥2100 each. Their first Best Price re-releases came within a year of launch. Even Biohazard 0 and remake were Best Priced.

It's pretty clear that MH has a good future on portable systems, and it just so happens that a new one is hitting this year or early next year. Since MH3's original release, we've also seen the PS3 become on-par with the Wii in terms of current sales. Even Sengoku Basara 3 gives Capcom reason to consider the PS3 for a potential MH3G. So does RE5, which is a near million seller.

Full Ack.

I love my Wii and MH Tri, but MH 3G as a Wii exclusive doesnt make much sense for Capcom. If they are smart they could release it as a multiplattform Wii/3DS title or even Wii/Ps3.

Looking at Nintendos DQ9 marketing in europe i could see MH being a greater sucess on the 3DS in the west than on Wii, maybe they can work out a deal.... Capcom already has announced two of their biggest IPs for 3DS, i would be shocked if they werent ready to announce an MH 3DS game next year.
 

schuelma

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farnham said:
Capcom has abandoned the system a long time ago with Monster hunter 3 being probably the last game they even developed for it. Do they have any game announced for the system currently ? no.
since when did we ever get full disclosure of capcoms development process in the first place
 

farnham

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schuelma said:
since when did we ever get full disclosure of capcoms development process in the first place
yeah youre right. but then again unlike nintendo capcom actually announces their projects a good time before they release them

in case of nintendo its sometimes within 1 or 2 month (wii party for example got announced in may and was released in august. excitebots was even shorter)