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[JoshuaJSlone]

Ye old MMV forecast thread for FY2009.

Muramasa's was 56K.

And the FY ends at March 31st 2010 right? I think in time it could reach that. It's only been almost three months since release...

Here are games which matched Muramasa's first two weeks, +/- 2K of its LTD on each week. For games where we have totals from many months later, the lower end stopped at about 37K (Y's Box of Napishtim), while on the high end there's 72K (Yu-Gi-Oh Duel Monsters Expert 2006). 40-50K does seem most common, though.

Putting in the extra number donny2112 has for a few weeks later doesn't get any results, buuut that's more because we usually don't have a good view of what such low sellers are up to 4 weeks from launch, rather than that nothing ever behaved like that.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Did the PC Engine outsell the Genesis in Japan?

Yes, i don't remember correct numbers, but the only system which sold more than the PC Engine was the Saturn (besides Sony and Nintendo ones, of course)

 

[Jokeropia]

I meant to say Arc Rise Fantasia, but Muramasa works too.

His point was that nobody should care about the sales of a re-release with some extras of a year old, awful and low-budget rpg when that old game sold much more than any Marvelous game on the Wii.

We don't know if Marvelous positioned this re-release as an "overpriced best version" but at least it seems that way. I'm not surprised about the low first day percentage sold, it seems in line with almost every budget (best) re-release.

Wouldn't it's status as a re-release be taken into consideration when the expectations are set? Really the only bar you can measure a game against (to determine success or failure) is the publisher expectations, and it's a slippery slope if we're gonna make exceptions to that.

Now if you wanna say that it doesn't mean much that Valhalla failed then that's another issue, but I don't think any of the Wii games have failed enough to be significant either.

 

[D.Lo]

Yes, i don't remember correct numbers, but the only system which sold more than the PC Engine was the Saturn (besides Sony and Nintendo ones, of course)

Yeah kinda funny that - the PC Engine and Saturn are the most successful 2nd place systems ever in Japan! Until now with the PSP.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I meant to say Arc Rise Fantasia, but Muramasa works too.Wouldn't it's status as a re-release be taken into consideration when the expectations are set?

I didn't reply because Spiegel already answered, but now I think you got the games mixed up or something. The latest Valhalla title isn't a normal new game release, its not a new entry, it isn't even a spinoff, and there aren't any expectations set for it. Its a re-release of Valhalla Knight 2 that adds a few new quests and items and fixes minor complaints so Marvelous can cash-in on it instead of doing a normal the best! re-release (that the first one had) with a higher but still budget price point (4000Y vs 3000Y).

EDIT: And it goes without saying that what a publisher tells their investors they are expecting retailers to swallow of one of its products very close to its release means shit to the game success or failure to me.

 

[Spiegel]

I meant to say Arc Rise Fantasia, but Muramasa works too.Wouldn't it's status as a re-release be taken into consideration when the expectations are set? Really the only bar you can measure a game against (to determine success or failure) is the publisher expectations, and it's a slippery slope if we're gonna make exceptions to that.

Now if you wanna say that it doesn't mean much that Valhalla failed then that's another issue, but I don't think any of the Wii games have failed enough to be significant either.

Again, why the fuck should anyone here care about the sales of a re-release with some extras of a year old, awful and low-budget rpg?

Okay, let's say that this cash-in re-release has failed.
How is this bad?
Maybe Marvelous will know now that releasing a shitty game once is enough.

EDIT

Kurosaki explained it better

 

[Vinnk]

Picked up another motion plus today. The store I got Wii Sports resort at on launch was sold out. Lot of copies of the game and m+. I'm not sure if this is a second shipment or leftover from the first, but either way it is not supply constrained in my town.

And personally I don't think hardware is going to get a major bump. I didn't see anyone walking out of the store with a new Wii at any of the places I went to. This game seems more targeted at existing Wii owners than new users. Of course I am sure Nintendo hopes that like the first Wii Sports this will be the next "Killer app" and sell hardware by word of mouth. And better yet keep it trending higher.

I am sure there will be a boost to hardware, but I am not expecting a huge change.

 

[cvxfreak]

I don't expect a huge hardware boost either. Monster Hunter 3 + black Wii will be the one to cause that.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Picked up another motion plus today. The store I got Wii Sports resort at on launch was sold out. Lot of copies of the game and m+. I'm not sure if this is a second shipment or leftover from the first, but either way it is not supply constrained in my town.

And personally I don't think hardware is going to get a major bump. I didn't see anyone walking out of the store with a new Wii at any of the places I went to. This game seems more targeted at existing Wii owners than new users. Of course I am sure Nintendo hopes that like the first Wii Sports this will be the next "Killer app" and sell hardware by word of mouth. And better yet keep it trending higher.

I am sure there will be a boost to hardware, but I am not expecting a huge change.

What about when Monster Hunter 3 comes out?

I wonder if MH3, then NSMBWii would be enough to hold the interest of the Japanese public for a while?

 

[schuelma]

I don't expect a huge hardware boost either. Monster Hunter 3 + black Wii will be the one to cause that.

Agreed. I think I predicted 40K but that's probably high..32K or so seems about right.

 

[Jokeropia]

The latest Valhalla title isn't a normal new game release, its not a new entry, it isn't even a spinoff, and there aren't any expectations set for it.

Are you really saying that Marvelous had no expectations whatsoever (whether high or low) for the game?! If you don't have any expectations, how can you determine budget, shipments, overall expectations for fiscal year and such things?

EDIT: And it goes without saying that what a publisher tells their investors they are expecting retailers to swallow of one of its products very close to its release means shit to the game success or failure to me.

Now you're saying that shipment sell-though means absolutely nothing when determining whether a game is a success or not. I've seen the argument that high sell-through doesn't necessarily mean success since the publisher might have wanted to ship more copies than retailers ordered, but I believe this is the first time I've seen the flip-side argument. Did Marvelous expect to sell less than they asked retailers to order?

Again, why the fuck should anyone here care about the sales of a re-release with some extras of a year old, awful and low-budget rpg?

->

Now if you wanna say that it doesn't mean much that Valhalla failed then that's another issue, but I don't think any of the Wii games have failed enough to be significant either.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Are you really saying that Marvelous had no expectations whatsoever (whether high or low) for the game?! If you don't have any expectations, how can you determine budget, shipments, overall expectations for fiscal year and such things?

Hell no, I'm saying that we have no expectations number from them like we actually do for the other you mentioned. You compared it to a game that isn't at all like the one at hand, from conception to expectations (one we have, one we don't but of course it has one). I don't know what kind of expectations they do have, but it isn't comparable to the likes of Valhalla Knights 2, Muramasa, Arc Rise Fantasia or any other like that. Its a much more meaningless release, to add some extra, budget sales on top of Valhalla Knights 2.

Now you're saying that shipment sell-though means absolutely nothing when determining whether a game is a success or not. I've seen the argument that high sell-through doesn't necessarily mean success since the publisher might have wanted to ship more copies than retailers ordered, but I believe this is the first time I've seen the flip-side argument. Did Marvelous expect to sell less than they asked retailers to order?

No I'm not saying that its sell through is good because Marvelous expected less because no one here knows what they expected, me the first one. I'm saying that even if we had Marvelous expectations it wouldn't make or break game success in my eyes, be it 1k or 100k, I wouldn't use it as an absolute bar to label the game as success or failure. It would only tell me if they had seen the demand coming, a game can do plenty good missing its publishers expectations, and it can also do plenty bad even surpassing them, its just a matter of how they see it coming.

 

[Vinnk]

What about when Monster Hunter 3 comes out?

Unlike WSR the new Monster Hunter appeals to a different group, one that might not have a Wii yet (or had one and sold it). Also it will launch with a MH branded black Wii that will move simply due to it being a MH collectible. Anyone know how many of the bundles are going to be made?

 

[Sage00]

Unlike WSR the new Monster Hunter appeals to a different group, one that might not have a Wii yet (or had one and sold it). Also it will launch with a MH branded black Wii that will move simply due to it being a MH collectible. Anyone know how many of the bundles are going to be made?

It's MH branded? I thought it was a new permanent colour variation being launched at the same time as MH Tri, or are there 2 versions?

 

[Eteric Rice]

It's MH branded? I thought it was a new permanent colour variation being launched at the same time as MH Tri, or are there 2 versions?

I think one is a bundle, but you'll still be able to get the black Wii seperately, most likely.

 

[schuelma]

It's MH branded? I thought it was a new permanent colour variation being launched at the same time as MH Tri, or are there 2 versions?

Yeah I don't think its MH branded. The MH Tri pack just comes with the game, the black CC Pro, and the new black console.

 

[AniHawk]

Yes, i don't remember correct numbers, but the only system which sold more than the PC Engine was the Saturn (besides Sony and Nintendo ones, of course)

See, then I find this interesting:

Wii: first in Japan, first worldwide
PS3: second in Japan, last worldwide
360: last in Japan, second worldwide

PS2: first in Japan, first worldwide
GC: second in Japan, last worldwide
Xbox: last in Japan, second worldwide

PSX: first in Japan, first worldwide
Saturn: second in Japan, last worldwide
N64: last in Japan, second worldwide

SNES: first in Japan, first worldwide
PC Engine: second in Japan, last worldwide
Genesis: last in Japan, second worldwide

 

[Dash Kappei]

What about when Monster Hunter 3 comes out?

I wonder if MH3, then NSMBWii would be enough to hold the interest of the Japanese public for a while?

Doesn't NSMBWii come out in late November though? If so, August -> December seems too far away if there isn't something big in-between...

 

[schuelma]

Doesn't NSMBWii come out in late November though? If so, August -> December seems too far away if there isn't something big in-between...

You know what would be good..a sequel to a game that's sold almost 3.5 million copies in a year and a half. That would be the ticket!

 

[d[-_-]b]

You know what would be good..a sequel to a game that's sold almost 3.5 million copies in a year and a half. That would be the ticket!

Hmm drawing a blank...
Mario and Sonic Winter Games?

 

[schuelma]

Hmm drawing a blank...
Mario and Sonic Winter Games?

It rhymes with Fii Mit.

 

[Dash Kappei]

You know what would be good..a sequel to a game that's sold almost 3.5 million copies in a year and a half. That would be the ticket!

Oh, right, Plus!

 

[Vinnk]

It's MH branded? I thought it was a new permanent colour variation being launched at the same time as MH Tri, or are there 2 versions?

The box is MH branded and for the Otaku gamer that is enough. But yeah for the more casual MH fan I am sure any Wii will do but I think many will still opt for the bundle.

 

[Shipptnotsold]

Did the PC Engine outsell the Genesis in Japan?

Japan shipped:
PC-Engine: 3.92m
PC-Engine CD: 1.92m
Mega Drive: 3.58m

 

[vicissitudes]

See, then I find this interesting:

Wii: first in Japan, first worldwide
PS3: second in Japan, last worldwide
360: last in Japan, second worldwide

PS2: first in Japan, first worldwide
GC: second in Japan, last worldwide
Xbox: last in Japan, second worldwide

PSX: first in Japan, first worldwide
Saturn: second in Japan, last worldwide
N64: last in Japan, second worldwide

SNES: first in Japan, first worldwide
PC Engine: second in Japan, last worldwide
Genesis: last in Japan, second worldwide

:O

Mind blown.

 

[donny2112]

.

Have you always used that avatar?

 

[GDGF]

See, then I find this interesting:

Wii: first in Japan, first worldwide
PS3: second in Japan, last worldwide
360: last in Japan, second worldwide

PS2: first in Japan, first worldwide
GC: second in Japan, last worldwide
Xbox: last in Japan, second worldwide

PSX: first in Japan, first worldwide
Saturn: second in Japan, last worldwide
N64: last in Japan, second worldwide

SNES: first in Japan, first worldwide
PC Engine: second in Japan, last worldwide
Genesis: last in Japan, second worldwide

That's pretty cool!

 

[Nirolak]

See, then I find this interesting:

Wii: first in Japan, first worldwide
PS3: second in Japan, last worldwide
360: last in Japan, second worldwide

PS2: first in Japan, first worldwide
GC: second in Japan, last worldwide
Xbox: last in Japan, second worldwide

PSX: first in Japan, first worldwide
Saturn: second in Japan, last worldwide
N64: last in Japan, second worldwide

SNES: first in Japan, first worldwide
PC Engine: second in Japan, last worldwide
Genesis: last in Japan, second worldwide

So that's why Microsoft stopped trying in Japan.

Spoiler

Seriously, isn't it about time for them to announce a better exclusive lineup than Ninety Nine Nights 2 and Magna Carta 2?

 

[Saint Gregory]

See, then I find this interesting:

Wii: first in Japan, first worldwide
PS3: second in Japan, last worldwide
360: last in Japan, second worldwide

PS2: first in Japan, first worldwide
GC: second in Japan, last worldwide
Xbox: last in Japan, second worldwide

PSX: first in Japan, first worldwide
Saturn: second in Japan, last worldwide
N64: last in Japan, second worldwide

SNES: first in Japan, first worldwide
PC Engine: second in Japan, last worldwide
Genesis: last in Japan, second worldwide

Wow that's freaky. Is there any logic to explain why the second and third place consoles are shaking out that way?

 

[Nirolak]

Wow that's freaky. Is there any logic to explain why the second and third place consoles are shaking out that way?

My guess would be that the second and third place consoles have generally relied heavily on exclusives to sell their systems, and whichever region those exclusives were focused at (either the West or Japan) is where their systems sold better. Since the West as a whole is a bigger market, it usually meant better worldwide success if you targeted that market instead.

This is largely speculation though, since obviously consoles like the Wii also sell heavily based upon exclusives as well, it's just we're seeing those appeal to both Japan and the West quite well. Though, the Wii's sales in Japan relative to the West right now might speak to Nintendo's casual titles appealing more to the West in the long run, or it might just be a factor of Japan switching primarily to a handheld market.

 

[shykyoichi]

See, then I find this interesting:

Wii: first in Japan, first worldwide
PS3: second in Japan, last worldwide
360: last in Japan, second worldwide

PS2: first in Japan, first worldwide
GC: second in Japan, last worldwide
Xbox: last in Japan, second worldwide

PSX: first in Japan, first worldwide
Saturn: second in Japan, last worldwide
N64: last in Japan, second worldwide

SNES: first in Japan, first worldwide
PC Engine: second in Japan, last worldwide
Genesis: last in Japan, second worldwide

:O

How bizarre...

 

[laserbeam]

The Industry repeats itself even with the 3rd gen curse. If it holds true Nintendo wins next gen and than loses next next gen

Companies have even tried the priced out the ass console method before and bombed yet someone *cough Sony*cough* did not bother to study history.

 

[Saint Gregory]

My guess would be that the second and third place consoles have generally relied heavily on exclusives to sell their systems, and whichever region those exclusives were focused at (either the West or Japan) is where their systems sold better. Since the West as a whole is a bigger market, it usually meant better worldwide success if you targeted that market instead.

This is largely speculation though, since obviously consoles like the Wii also sell heavily based upon exclusives as well, it's just we're seeing those appeal to both Japan and the West quite well. Though, the Wii's sales in Japan relative to the West right now might speak to Nintendo's casual titles appealing more to the West in the long run, or it might just be a factor of Japan switching primarily to a handheld market.

I guess that would also explain why the Japanese console market doesn't seem to be the focus of many developers at all anymore. Or is it more of a "which came first, the chicken or the egg" scenario?

The Industry repeats itself even with the 3rd gen curse. If it holds true Nintendo wins next gen and than loses next next gen

Well if what Sony and Microsoft says is true next next gen won't begin until 2025. I'm sure that Nintendo will have built a small nation out of their money by then.

 

[AceBandage]

Well if what Sony and Microsoft says is true next next gen won't begin until 2025. I'm sure that Nintendo will have built a small nation out of their money by then.

Miyamoto is already planing it, actually.

* Posted 6:53 PST
“And who knows, if all goes well we may buy our own island in the South Pacific…but I don’t know if Nintendo stockholders would approve of the idea.”

http://www.wiinintendo.net/2009/06/02/miyamoto-e3-2009-roundtable-discussion/

 

[Saint Gregory]

Miyamoto is already planing it, actually.

http://www.wiinintendo.net/2009/06/02/miyamoto-e3-2009-roundtable-discussion/

:lol Nice, I wonder if the inhabitants of that island will be able to import rival video game systems? One console future indeed.

 

[shykyoichi]

Miyamoto is already planing it, actually.

http://www.wiinintendo.net/2009/06/02/miyamoto-e3-2009-roundtable-discussion/

What would they name it?

 

[Eteric Rice]

What would they name it?

Yoshi's Island.

 

[Spiegel]

Interesting fact about Yuusha 30 (related to MMV failures and successes):

Takaki says planning started in August last year and production began in September.

http://www.psphyper.com/psp/famitsu...minute-hero-flash-origin-development-process/

The game has sold ~50k to date and it's showing decent legs. It must be pure profit for them, knowing its short development time and low apparent budget.

 

[slaughterking]

Yeah, you couldn't figure that out by just looking at the game.

 

[Spiegel]

Yeah, you couldn't figure that out by just looking at the game.

It's worth pointing out.

For better or worse, discussions here make it seem like MMV is almost a 2nd party for Nintendo consoles.

Truth is that MMV is also being successful on the psp.

 

[Hero of Legend]

It's worth pointing out.

For better or worse, discussions here make it seem like MMV is almost a 2nd party for Nintendo consoles.

Truth is that MMV is also being successful on the psp.

Who owns the IP?

I heard it was based off something by Sony, maybe not.

If not, as the game as you said seems to be pure profit, shouldn't they have ported it to DS, WiiWare, and even PS2 for lots of $$$ if they could?

 

[test_account]

I've seen the argument that high sell-through doesn't necessarily mean success since the publisher might have wanted to ship more copies than retailers ordered, but I believe this is the first time I've seen the flip-side argument. Did Marvelous expect to sell less than they asked retailers to order?

I was wondering about this, is it possible that the stores have more faith in how a game will sell compare to how much the developer/publisher think it will sell? Or does developer/publisher usually base their expectations on stores' pre-orders of the game? Not that the developer/publisher base their expecations only on stores' pre-orders though, but that this is one factor that they base their expectations on how a game will sell?

See, then I find this interesting:

Wii: first in Japan, first worldwide
PS3: second in Japan, last worldwide
360: last in Japan, second worldwide

PS2: first in Japan, first worldwide
GC: second in Japan, last worldwide
Xbox: last in Japan, second worldwide

PSX: first in Japan, first worldwide
Saturn: second in Japan, last worldwide
N64: last in Japan, second worldwide

SNES: first in Japan, first worldwide
PC Engine: second in Japan, last worldwide
Genesis: last in Japan, second worldwide

That is interesting indeed

 

[Ryu Hayabusa]

PS3 = Genesis <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

 

[[Nintex]]

PS3 = Genesis <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

According to that, PS3 = Saturn

Genesis = Xbox 360

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I was thinking. With the earlier discussion of PS3 vs Wii third party sales this year, a large chunk of it comes down to the Final Fantasy games: how big will they be, and when will they release. At this point, do we really have a good idea which, if either, will release this year? It's not like Final Fantasy has traditionally relied on being a holiday title or anything, so it seems unlikely they feel a necessity to be a big Q4 game. The last time a new numbered FF released later than July was V in December 1992, and the series' biggest successes were January and February releases.

Nor does the current public state of each game seem to conclusively show one as much further along than the other. Both were revealed at the same time, and have spent a long time in development. One has had a demo released to the public, while the other has been playable at a trade show and had a more active web site.

 

[Nirolak]

So I was thinking. With the earlier discussion of PS3 vs Wii third party sales this year, a large chunk of it comes down to the Final Fantasy games: how big will they be, and when will they release. At this point, do we really have a good idea which, if either, will release this year? It's not like Final Fantasy has traditionally relied on being a holiday title or anything, so it seems unlikely they feel a necessity to be a big Q4 game. The last time a new numbered FF released later than July was V in December 1992, and the series' biggest successes were January and February releases.

Nor does the current public state of each game seem to conclusively show one as much further along than the other. Both were revealed at the same time, and have spent a long time in development. One has had a demo released to the public, while the other has been playable at a trade show and had a more active web site.

I imagine they'll both be ready by the end of 2009, but only FFXIII will release then.

Square will probably want to focus all of their major marketing effort on FFXIII, and releasing FFCC:TCB in the middle of New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus doesn't strike me as the best idea in the world. Not to mention, if both FFXIII and DQIX are actually releasing in the same fiscal year, chances are high that Square wants at least a few games with a chance to do well in Japan to release next fiscal year instead.

On the plus side, it would probably only mean good things for FFCC if it got that much more development time.

Edit:

Right, I should probably address the why I think they'll be ready since that's what you really asked.

Based on all the statements and footage they've released of FFXIII so far, it seems they're really pushing for a Fall 2009 releasing in Japan, because as far as the PlayStation 3 goes they have almost no competition, and since it's only releasing in Japan then, it doesn't overly affect their financial results due to the low install base of PS3s in the nation.

FFCC:TCB also just seems to have a very large array of content already done based upon the variety of media they have released, as well as the ramp up in advertising, but if something has to take a back seat, I would really place my bet on FFCC doing so due to the above reasons.

 

[Spiegel]

Not to mention, if both FFXIII and DQIX are actually releasing in the same fiscal year, chances are high that Square wants at least a few games with a chance to do well in Japan to release next fiscal year instead.

Next fiscal year they'll have FFXIII (NA/E), KH:BBS (NA/E) and probably Versus, DQVI and Agito XIII (J)

I heard it was based off something by Sony, maybe not.

It's not

 

[Nirolak]

Next fiscal year they'll have FFXIII (NA/E), KH:BBS (NA/E) and probably Versus, DQVI and Agito XIII (J)

They'll also have quite a few large titles from Eidos, including the reboots of both Tomb Raider and Hitman, but I meant more specifically just things for the Japanese market that might keep their sales level in Japan a little more stable than they would be otherwise year over year.

But yeah, the above titles could probably do that, but there would always be the risk of delays to them, whereas if FFCC is almost done, there would be no real risk to that.

Of course, my entire theory is based upon Square thinking FFCC will sell quite well in Japan, which might be entirely inaccurate.

 

[donny2112]

Next fiscal year they'll have FFXIII (NA/E), KH:BBS (NA/E) and probably Versus, DQVI and Agito XIII (J)

The mainline Final Fantasys have sold more in Japan than in the U.S. since at least FFVII and probably always have. If they're actually trying to even out their Fiscal Years, then a FY2010 Japanese release for FFXIII seems much more likely. However since they had a down FY last year due to DQIX's delay, I could see them foregoing the "evening out FY" motivation for this year.

Of course, my entire theory is based upon Square thinking FFCC will sell quite well in Japan, which might be entirely inaccurate.

The series hasn't sold over 390K on any release, and that was on the DS. I honestly wouldn't even expect that out of Crystal Bearers.

 

[Spiegel]

The mainline Final Fantasys have sold more in Japan than in the U.S. since at least FFVII and probably always have. If they're actually trying to even out their Fiscal Years, then a FY2010 Japanese release for FFXIII seems much more likely. However since they had a down FY last year due to DQIX's delay, I could see them foregoing the "evening out FY" motivation for this year.

But it's not just US sales, the game will be out next fiscal year on Europe too

NA+E >> J for sure.

And with also a 360 release maybe just with NA sales it will be enough