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[Chris1964]

I would say that 1) A single counter example isn't strong evidence, particularly when that game has such exceptional pull, and 2) while I would hardly call MH3 a failure, I also wouldn't call it a runaway success, compared to expectations.

I could produce the long list of games that have underperformed slightly or significantly on the Wii -- including games made by Nintendo itself, which focus on young males -- but I won't, because this is not the evidence my argument is based on, and we've had enough of these list wars for a lifetime. I'm asking you again, Chris, please stop.

Instead, my argument is based on evidence provided by Nintendo, coupled with obvious common sense. Taking the example even further, to make the point clearly, imagine if you have a user base that is 90% young girls. Would making a game that appeals very strongly to older males (with violence, sexuality, or reliance on typical male archetypes such as swords or guns or cars) be a good idea? No. Even with a user base of 20 million., the vast majority of the user base simply wouldn't be accessible to your product. Is this seriously something you're arguinig against? It should be obvious, common sense stuff.

I won't continue the demographic argument. Only this (completely irrelevant with the male/female discussion).

Who started these supposed list wars? You brought into conversation Metal Gear Solid 4 out of nowhere, the most advertised high profile PS3 game until Final Fantasy XIII.
The only 3rd party Wii game you can compare it is Monster Hunter 3.
The end and you can't deny this.

 

[Rolf NB]

Late ports always struggle. The publisher's marketing activities are much more important to a strong launch than year-old word of mouth will ever be, and giving it a genuine second sales push is expensive. Even if the same marketing budget is allocated again, the game is old news, which makes things difficult. Members of the press will be hard to get excited, as they're already "done" with the game. Doing the usual routine of previews and exclusive droplets of information to trickle out simply won't make sense anymore for a game that's already a known quantity.

To see a late port match or even outperform the original version in sales, you need strong reasons, like a userbase multiple times the size of the original platform. A bit of extra content isn't going to explain Vesperia/PS3. 3x+ the installed base is the argument you're looking for.

To interpret the first release a year earlier as an aid, as free marketing for the second release, is surely in the more preposterous half of the claims made this week.

 

[schuelma]

Errr... why?


.

Well, I think we are due for the next Tales game and I don't know what other team could possibly be ready, and a sequel to Vesperia seems more likely than another all new entry given the movie and all that.


I dunno.

 

[Opiate]

Who started these supposed list wars? You brought into conversation Metal Gear Solid 4 out of nowhere

I actually used Metal Gear the franchise, which is a pretty important distinction. I'm not interested in discussing Metal Gear Solid 4 in particular: I'm interested in discussing the franchise, who it appeals to (I'm arguing it heavily skews towards males, particularly nerdy ones), and how that demographic presents itself on the different systems. MGS4 is a real instance of this, but I was not bringing up MGS to say "MGS4 sold great on the PS3!" but rather to say, "The MGS franchise in general is not compatible with a large portion of the Wii's userbase."

And for the record, list wars have been raging for years. I'm not just talking about this thread: I'm just tired of having that conversation over and over again. I'd much rather take a new approach, i.e., discussing demographics and how they affect sales of hardware and software. In comparison, it's a woefully undiscussed topic in sales age.

The only 3rd party Wii game you can compare it is Monster Hunter 3.
The end and you can't deny this.

I don't deny it at all, I'm just saying it's not relevant to the more general discussion I'm having, about how differing demographics affect platform decisions. I would say this: Monster Hunter as a franchise, speaking generally, is better suited to the Playstation 3, as we stand now, if it's going to be on a console at all. I don't mean that because it would be a better game, or because only the PS3 can do it justice, or any of that nonsense. I mean that it's generally a game for young males, and the Playstation systems in general (both PSP and PS3) seem to have attracted a notably higher concentration of those people. Beyond the evidence I've already cited (Nintendo's own PR), the best evidence for this is that most (or all?) young-male centric games released on both the PS3 and Wii have done better on the PS3, thus far. The next major example will be Basara 3, which practically everyone seems to agree will do notably better on the PS3 than on the Wii.

Why would that be the case, Chris? I ask that question with an answer already in mind, but I'd like to hear your position. The Wii has somewhere near 3x as many systems sold as the PS3 in Japan. Despite this obvious advantage, why do people feel so confident the game will sell better on the system with a far smaller install base?

 

[Jokeropia]

I'll just reiterate that Nintendo itself provided that 40/60 split information

Actually, it's almost exactly 50/50.

 

[schuelma]

I would say this: Monster Hunter as a franchise, speaking generally, is better suited to the Playstation 3, as we stand now, if it's going to be on a console at all. I don't mean that because it would be a better game, or because only the PS3 can do it justice, or any of that nonsense. I mean that it's generally a game for young males, and the Playstation systems in general (both PSP and PS3) seem to have attracted a notably higher concentration of those people. Beyond the evidence I've already cited (Nintendo's own PR), it's worth mentioned that most if not all young-male centric games released on both the PS3 and Wii have done better on the PS3, thus far.

I'm sorry, but this seems awfully speculative. I don't know how you can say with any certainty that Monster Hunter would do better on the PS3 when out of all the high profile PS2 "male" franchises to have come to the PS3 nothing has even came close to matching what MH Tri has done on the Wii so far.

I agree that as a proportion the PS3 userbase has more young males. But that doesn't mean the total group of people on the Wii willing to buy software geared towards that group is necessarily that much lower than the total number of the PS3.

Did Smash Brothers sell almost 2 million copies on the backs of grandmothers? Did Galaxy sell almost a million because of your grandpa? Hell did Zelda sell almost 600K because of your wife? I don' think its only a question of demographics-its a question of attracting a certain kind of gamer that grew up on PS2 franchises by putting those franchises on your platform. That has happened on the PS3 and it mostly has not happened with the Wii. Now, is it true that there are a lot of young males in that group?Of course. But do I think that group is like the only group of young males in the country willing to play a videogame? No.

The next major example will be Basara 3, which practically everyone seems to agree will do notably better on the PS3 than on the Wii.

Why would that be the case, Chris? I ask that question with an answer already in mind, but I'd like to hear your position. The Wii has somewhere near 3x as many systems sold as the PS3 has in Japan. Despite this obvious advantage, why do people feel so confident the game will sell better on the system with a far smaller install base?

From what our Japanese posters have said, Basara seems to have a lot of appeal to the female audience, so if your theory is correct maybe it will do well on Wii afterall!

 

[Opiate]

Actually, it's almost exactly 50/50.

My god, it's even worse.

I'm just joking, of course. As I stated earlier, I do think this type of split is absolutely healthy from a general, conceptual standpoint. It's a very good thing that this product is not heavily skewing towards a specific demographic, as that limits it's reach right from the start.

But outside of concepts and theories, the truth is that most third parties and their hallmark games skew heavily towards male preferences. Guns, cars, swords, sports. For games that skew heavily in that direction, that 50% female population is practically untouchable. They will not want to play Metal Gear. They simply will.not. Ever. For a game like Metal Gear, that 50% of the userbase might as well not exist.

I think it would be great if there were a larger portion of quality games made with either 1) Young girls, women, and the older people in mind, or 2) more games made to appeal to all demographics simultaneously, but in reality, that simply isn't the case at the moment. Most games are made by younger males (i.e. before the age of 40) to be played by younger males.

A fantastic equivalent in America would be Madden -- it's a great example because the NFL has been trying to penetrate the female market literally for decades, but it's gained them virtually nothing. The demographic splits for Monday Night Football -- according to Nielson -- have been stuck at ~80/20% since 1990 (I don't have the data for this handy, you'll just have to trust I've done this research). The NFL has tried, but the concept of gigantic, bulky men smashing in to each other and playing rough house is such an intrinsically male preference that women simply will not stay interested. Generally speaking, of course.

I would assume the same is true of Football Simulation games; if it is, then that female portion of the Wii market is practically untouchable by the Madden franchise. And what-dya know? The Wii has indeed struggled to sell Madden games.

 

[Chris1964]

Monster Hunter as a franchise, speaking generally, is better suited to the Playstation 3, as we stand now, if it's going to be on a console at all. I don't mean that because it would be a better game, or because only the PS3 can do it justice, or any of that nonsense. I mean that it's generally a game for young males, and the Playstation systems in general (both PSP and PS3) seem to have attracted a notably higher concentration of those people.

What does PSP has to do now? Are we gonna add and DS into the conversation?From what you I understand you believe that Monster Hunter will sell better on PS3 than Wii and Capcom is probably stupid for putting it on Wii. Monster Hunter 3 G for PS3 incoming.

Beyond the evidence I've already cited (Nintendo's own PR), it's worth mentioned that most if not all young-male centric games released on both the PS3 and Wii have done better on the PS3, thus far. The next major example will be Basara 3, which practically everyone seems to agree will do notably better on the PS3 than on the Wii.

Basara 3 is the first major example. You make me talk about list wars again. What exactly are the other ''big'' Japanese franchises that had simultaneous release on PS3 and Wii? As for the fact that the PS3 version will sell notably better from the Wii allow me to have my doubts.

 

[schuelma]

My god, it's even worse.

I'm just joking, of course. As I stated earlier, I do think this type of split is absolutely healthy from a general, conceptual standpoint. It's a very good thing that this product is not heavily skewing towards a specific demographic, as that limits it's reach right from the start.

But outside of concepts and theories, the truth is that most third parties and their hallmark games skew heavily towards male preferences. Guns, cars, swords, sports. For games that skew heavily in that direction, that 50% female population is practically untouchable. They will not want to play Metal Gear. They simply will.not. Ever. For a game like Metal Gear, that 50% of the userbase might as well not exist.
.

Maybe I'm missing something....but even if we grant you that 50% of the Wii's user base will never touch a so called core game ever..wouldn't that still leave with a higher install base than the complete number of PS3 owners?

 

[Opiate]

I'm sorry, but this seems awfully speculative. I don't know how you can say with any certainty that Monster Hunter would do better on the PS3 when out of all the high profile PS2 "male" franchises to have come to the PS3 nothing has even came close to matching what MH Tri has done on the Wii so far.

They've also done worse on the Wii. The question is: which is worse-r? So far, every single heads up battle between the Wii and PS3, where the same game is released at the same time, has been won by the PS3 handily. I see no reason to believe that the same wouldn't hold true for MH3, particularly when the franchise exploded on the PSP, Sony's other system

I agree that as a proportion the PS3 userbase has more young males. But that doesn't mean the total group of people on the Wii willing to buy software geared towards that group is necessarily that much lower than the total number of the PS3.

Oh, I agre with this. I'm not saying this is black and white, where games of this type will sell 0 on the Wii and a million on the PS3. If I had to get down to specifics, I'd say these types of games (i.e. RPGs, Fighting games, Action games, racing games) sell slightly better on the PS3, as of today, on average. Which is itself a huge accomplishment, because it is essentially means that the PS3 is keeping up despite a near 3:1 userbase disadvantage.

Did Smash Brothers sell almost 2 million copies on the backs of grandmothers? Did Galaxy sell almost a million because of your grandpa?

No. I'm not sure what to make of Smash Brothers (I've rarely played it), but I absolutely think that Mario Brothers games appeal to both men and women, despite their origins in the "hardcore" world.

Hell did Zelda sell almost 600K because of your wife? I don' think its only a question of demographics-its a question of attracting a certain kind of gamer that grew up on PS2 franchises by putting those franchises on your platform. That has happened on the PS3 and it mostly has not happened with the Wii. Now, is it true that there are a lot of young males in that group?Of course. But do I think that group is like the only group of young males in the country willing to play a videogame? No.

I'm not suggesting this is the case. This whole discussion sprung out of the Tales of Graces numbers. Did that game sell 0 copies? No. Did it sell 1/10th what recent entries have done? No. It's just... slightly disappointing. Even compared to Vesperia.

And my point, here, was to explain how the PS3 can seem to best the Wii on these games -- even by small percentages -- when the Wii has such a dominant market share.

From what our Japanese posters have said, Basara seems to have a lot of appeal to the female audience, so if your theory is correct maybe it will do well on Wii afterall!

Had no idea. I'll be interested to see. It's a game about giant robots, is it not? Are we... sure it has a large female following? Or is this only large compared to, say, Devil May Cry?

 

[Opiate]

Maybe I'm missing something....but even if we grant you that 50% of the Wii's user base will never touch a so called core game ever..wouldn't that still leave with a higher install base than the complete number of PS3 owners?

If we broke it down that simply, yes -- but I'm only using these very simple examples to get the point across. I don't literally believe that no single woman will ever buy Metal Gear, or what have you. I just believe it's far less likely. Something like a 90/10% split between men/women. And I choose Metal Gear in particular because I think it's one of the most extreme examples: it tilts very, very heavily towards male preferences. Something like Tales of still tilts toward Males, but probably less so. 75%/25% seems like a ballpark starting point, to me.

Further, even amongst young males, there is going to be some divergence of tastes. But there's a reason why demographic information is so coveted by industries of all kinds, be it games, movies, toys, cars, sports: because in general, they are applicable. I think generalities are detested by Sales GAF because they cannot be measured with any certainty or have little mathematical basis at all, but in some cases, they provide relevant information. None of this is absolute, but we seem to agree that generally, the PS3 has a far higher concentration of young males than the Wii does. This presents itself in data, with games focused on sword wielding heroes or giant robots selling disproportionately well on the PS3.

 

[schuelma]

They've also done worse on the Wii. The question is: which is worse-r? So far, every single heads up battle between the Wii and PS3, where the same game is released at the same time, has been won by the PS3 handily. I see no reason to believe that the same wouldn't hold true for MH3, particularly when the franchise exploded on the PSP, Sony's other system

There haven't been many of those though.

.

Had no idea. I'll be interested to see. It's a game about giant robots, is it not? Are we... sure it has a large female following? Or is this only large compared to, say, Devil May Cry?

No, its actually not about giant robots at all.

 

[Chris1964]

So far, every single heads up battle between the Wii and PS3, where the same game is released at the same time, has been won by the PS3 handily.

You said the same thing again. Find a big title that did this. And please don't start posting FIFA, Live, Madden and Need for Speed. I tell you from now that you won't find anyone.

 

[schuelma]

None of this is absolute, but we seem to agree that generally, the PS3 has a far higher concentration of young males than the Wii does.

I will agree that it has a higher concentration of young males. I disagree that this means every single franchise is best served on the PS3.

 

[TunaLover]

Your female/male theory looks so weak when compared to your previous insights Opiate, let´s back to disscuss the umbrella theory instead, it pretty much explain the whole Wii problem.

Note: I must say that the umbrella theory was expresed on GAF before, but no one gave it a name until you =P

 

[Opiate]

I will agree that it has a higher concentration of young males. I disagree that this means every single franchise is best served on the PS3.

Oh, definitely not.

Okay, let's dial this back, Schuelma. I think many people are taken aback by my extreme examples: I can see why this can be confusing. I'm not suggesting that Metal Gear -- my common example -- represents the norm. To the contrary, I think it is a particularly young-male centric franchise, and it is precisely it's extreme tilt that makes it a very clear example. To put it differently, my examples are chosen in order to make the concept clear, not to represent a typical instance.

I originally breached this discussion in response to the "ToGraces sales are underwhelming" discussion. Even though they're underwhelming, they aren't cataclysmically bad and omg every RPG should move to the PS3; they're just... far less good than you'd expect given the user base difference. The PS3 Tales is likely going to sell slightly more than the Wii tales, despite the install base disparity. That's pretty remarkable. Do you want to know what happens if these systems have virtually identical preferences? See the PS3 and 360 in the US: Donny mentioned recently that the only game to launch on both systems that has sold more on PS3 than on 360 is Batman: AA, out of literally dozens if not hundreds of examples. That's what happens. This is far from what is happening to the PS3 and Wii in Japan -- many, if not all, PS3/Wii games (even games that aren't literally exact copies, like Tales of Vesperia and Tales of Graces) are performing as well on the PS3 as they are on the Wii, if not better.

I wanted to discuss why this is the case. I suggested this is caused by the disproportionately high concentration of young males who own PS3s.

If I strip the discussion of my extreme examples, does this now seem more reasonable?

 

[schuelma]

I wanted to discuss why this is the case. I suggested this is caused by the disproportionately high concentration of young males who own PS3s.

If I strip the discussion of my extreme examples, does this now seem more reasonable?

Yes, it does. Though I think the far easier explanation that doesn't require us to get into vague demographic arguments is that third parties have built the audience up on the PS3 through PS2 franchises which is allowing many titles to do well on the system.

I would also add that I still don't agree with you regarding Monster Hunter. We can debate the portable's success and its impact all we want, but the reality is MH Tri has done significantly better than any previous console entry and has done significantly better than any PS3 third party game up to this point. I think it is way too speculative to say a PS3 version would sell better when faced with those facts.

 

[Opiate]

Yes, it does. Though I think the far easier explanation that doesn't require us to get into vague demographic arguments is that third parties have built the audience up on the PS3 through PS2 franchises which is allowing many titles to do well on the system.

These are effectively the same thing, but one is examining the audience, while the other examines the franchises.

That is, what you are describing as "PS2 franchises being built on PS3, allowing many titles to do well on the system," could also be described as "Games aimed at young males attracted that audience to the PS3, which allows many titles aimed at young males to do well."

Edit: In both cases, the point could crudely be boiled down to, "If you build it, they will come." The question is simply whether you're discussing the issue from the publisher's point of view (i.e. those who "build it), or the audience's point of view (i.e. those who "will come").

 

[schuelma]

These are effectively the same thing, but one is examining the audience, while the other examines the franchises.

That is, what you are describing as "PS2 franchises being built on PS3, allowing many titles to do well on the system," could also be described as "Franchises aimed at young males attracting that audience to the PS3, which allows many titles aimed at young males to do well."

I still think that is too simplistic. I think there are plenty of young males that own a Wii- but I think they bought the Wii for Nintendo franchises and not the latest Koei Musou game.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Not a great start for Graces but I wouldn`t label it as a bomba just yet. It may yet rebound somewhat as Wii games typically have longer tails than PS360 titles.

That being said, Namco picked a very bad time to release the game. Right after NSMB Wii and right before FF13 and Zelda Spirit Tracks. I wouldn`t doubt for a second that its sales would be stunted by the competition, but the christmas effect may help it maintain a presence for a little while longer at least.

 

[Opiate]

I still think that is too simplistic. I think there are plenty of young males that own a Wii- but I think they bought the Wii for Nintendo franchises and not the latest Koei Musou game.

This is reasonable, but I still think we're thinking too absolutely.

My core point was simply this: a system with a highly diverse user base, consisting of men and women of virtually all ages, is not an ideal platform for a game that very strongly focuses on a single one of these demographics.

That just.. does not seem contestable to me. You can certainly argue the degree with which this affects the current gaming landscape, but that's not a discussion I feel equipped to handle, and it wasn't my original point. Does it affect the landscape "some" or "a lot?" I'm not really sure. I understand the dislike of imprecise arguments -- which I freely admit is the case here -- but when expressed so generally, I still can't see how or why anyone would argue against this very common sense observation.

 

[schuelma]

This is reasonable, but I still think we're thinking too absolutely.

My core point was simply this: a system with a highly diverse user base, consisting of men and women of virtually all ages, is not an ideal platform for a game that very strongly focuses on a single one of these demographics.
.

When the install bases in question are somewhat equal I can agree. But as an absolute..not way- the DS has a very diverse userbase in Japan and is unquestionably the top choice for 3rd party software.

 

[schuelma]

Not a great start for Graces but I wouldn`t label it as a bomba just yet. It may yet rebound somewhat as Wii games typically have longer tails than PS360 titles.

That being said, Namco picked a very bad time to release the game. Right after NSMB Wii and right before FF13 and Zelda Spirit Tracks. I wouldn`t doubt for a second that its sales would be stunted by the competition, but the christmas effect may help it maintain a presence for a little while longer at least.

Well, the first Tales game on Wii had horrible legs, far worse than the PS360PSP titles. I do tend to think that won't be the case here, but it cant be discounted.

Also, I think I disagree on the timing, mostly. I do think it might have done better if released more than 1 week before FF13, but overall I think it will benefit from being out when retail traffic in Wii sections will be at its highest point in a long long time.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Curious how the japanese have their heavy hitters in December, while we get ours in November. Is that normal for them, or is this a one off?

 

[schuelma]

Curious how the japanese have their heavy hitters in December, while we get ours in November. Is that normal for them, or is this a one off?

As I understand it there is no late November holiday and New Years is the really big holiday for buying.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

As I understand it there is no late November holiday and New Years is the really big holiday for buying.

Makes sense.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Well, the first Tales game on Wii had horrible legs, far worse than the PS360PSP titles. I do tend to think that won't be the case here, but it cant be discounted.

Also, I think I disagree on the timing, mostly. I do think it might have done better if released more than 1 week before FF13, but overall I think it will benefit from being out when retail traffic in Wii sections will be at its highest point in a long long time.

If the game was finished in time, Namco should`ve released a week or two before NSMB Wii. They could`ve started off the Wii`s holiday momentum and then ride NSMB`s coattails for the week before FF13.

As it stands, it`s lost in the crowd IMO as all JRPG fans` eyes are on FF13 now. TOV was lucky (Twice!) in that it never had such strong competition to compete against!

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

TOV was lucky (Twice!) in that it never had such strong competition to compete against!

Yeah, TOV PS3 only had Pokemon Gold Silver remakes on DS 5 days before its release.

:lol


EDIT: Prediction League:
- what to predict next week? picking up the discussion from before, ff13 1st day, ff13 1st week, PS3 hard, Wii hard...do we really need anything else? Take into account that given ff13 numbers will be on the million side, any differences on lesser numbers else will be meaningless (as in it won't really matter how correct you get a 150k figure...its all about getting right the one at ~1000k).

 

[charlequin]

To interpret the first release a year earlier as an aid, as free marketing for the second release, is surely in the more preposterous half of the claims made this week.

"Free marketing" is definitely pushing it, but I think you can legitimately say that in a case where a game that itself is quite desirable appears on a totally undesirable platform, you are much more likely to retain sales for the rerelease on a desirable platform.

Vesperia on the whole would've been more successful in toto if they'd just done it for PS3 right upfront, because then they wouldn't have had to release and port the game twice to squeeze out, at most, maybe 100k extra sales, but I do think the specific crappiness of the 360 (and the fact that almost no one wanted to buy one just to play Vesperia) helped the port compared to if it had been ported from a more successful system.

Well, I think we are due for the next Tales game and I don't know what other team could possibly be ready, and a sequel to Vesperia seems more likely than another all new entry given the movie and all that.

The only time a team has done its own sequel to a Tales game is ToD2, and that was like five games after the first release. It just strikes me as unlikely that they'll do a sequel to anything as their next release.

I'm sorry, but this seems awfully speculative. I don't know how you can say with any certainty that Monster Hunter would do better on the PS3 when out of all the high profile PS2 "male" franchises to have come to the PS3 nothing has even came close to matching what MH Tri has done on the Wii so far.

I think Opiate is severely overgeneralizing here, basically. I think the demographic point is one important factor, but things like relative importance of computational power to making the franchise "work," similarity to things that are already successful on a given platform, narrowness of focus, "umbrellas" and "primers," etc. all contribute as well, often as much or more than the strict demographic measure.

It's obviously not something we can measure, but I think the computational weakness of the Wii really is a significant element in pushing most teen-male demographic games off of the system -- these games are more likely than others to be computationally and graphically intensive and to be sold on the basis of these factors, which makes releasing them on the Wii in a form that this market "respects" difficult.

I actually think Madden is a very poor example. While it's heavily male-tilted, Madden also has a severe "non-enthusiast" bias compared to most series that sell at its level -- but much like WE, its developer bungled the game on Wii so frequently that it became impossible to build a meaningful audience there. Had a Wii Madden that was feature-complete to the HD versions shipped upfront and continued every year, I expect it would've taken a significantly larger chunk of the overall Madden pie (in a way comparable to how feature-complete Guitar Hero became a unique success on Wii.)

When the install bases in question are somewhat equal I can agree. But as an absolute..not way- the DS has a very diverse userbase in Japan and is unquestionably the top choice for 3rd party software.

Yep. If I had to dictate why, I'd say that it's a combination of two factors: the DS focused on revitalizing moribund or declining genres, or bringing currently popular genres back to their "old school" roots, thereby avoiding competition with the neophilic HD systems, and the DS had the pump primed early on such that people of many demographics including teen males became accustomed to buying games there, while many teen males may own or have access to the Wii but simply not habitually buy games for it.

 

[Nirolak]

The only time a team has done its own sequel to a Tales game is ToD2, and that was like five games after the first release. It just strikes me as unlikely that they'll do a sequel to anything as their next release.

Well, Namco did say their staff was excited to make a Vesperia 2 and that they were thinking about doing so: http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/10/17/tales_of_vesperia_sequel_talk/

 

[schuelma]

It's obviously not something we can measure, but I think the computational weakness of the Wii really is a significant element in pushing most teen-male demographic games off of the system -- these games are more likely than others to be computationally and graphically intensive and to be sold on the basis of these factors, which makes releasing them on the Wii in a form that this market "respects" difficult.
.

Absolutely. I think I've tried to make somewhat of a similar point in a round about way- there really isn't any sort of differentiator for Wii versions of traditional Playstation franchises. Motion controls add nothing and in many cases would probably lessen the appeal of a title, and the graphics are basically unchanged from the PS2. In that case, why would a Wii version of these titles find success if the franchise is offered on another platform with at least some improvement in graphical fidelity. On a related note, even looking at the PSP you get a new feature- portability- which differentiates that version from the PS2 title.

Other than a third party just going all out and basically ensuring success like MH Tri with its marketing and exclusivity there seems little incentive for a property like SW3 to do very well- what makes it at all different from its PS2 versions other than it appearing on the Wii? If you are a fan of the PS2 Musou games, why would you play the same game on a new system when you can at least get a cosmetic difference with the HD games.

I hope that made some sense..

Yep. If I had to dictate why, I'd say that it's a combination of two factors: the DS focused on revitalizing moribund or declining genres, or bringing currently popular genres back to their "old school" roots, thereby avoiding competition with the neophilic HD systems, and the DS had the pump primed early on such that people of many demographics including teen males became accustomed to buying games there, while many teen males may own or have access to the Wii but simply not habitually buy games for it.

Excellent point with the old school aspect. I think that is one area that the Wii could have been successful in, but alas that did not happen.

 

[Datschge]

Well, Namco did say their staff was excited to make a Vesperia 2 and that they were thinking about doing so: http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/10/17/tales_of_vesperia_sequel_talk/

The project lead of ToV, Takashi Hasegawa, is apparently working on something new already since he wasn't even credited in the PS3 port. Going by the time between "Team Symphonia" game releases their next one would be out in Fall 2010. The result of thinking about a ToV sequel now would come to fruition only after that game (unless it's handled by a different staff).

 

[Mr.Wuggles]

sucks for TOG

 

[Hero of Legend]

my 2 cents on ToG... I really think Inomata's designs are wearing thin on people. her designs for Tales games get progressively worse with each new game, and her artwork honestly isn't very appealing in the first place. I firmly believe that if ToG was released as the same game it is right now but with Fujishima designs, it would sell better.

not removing blame on the wii, mind you. I'm not saying it's selling poorly solely because it has terrible Inomata designs (although I do believe it's a contributing factor) - I'm just positive it would sell better with Fujishima designs.

Was Sakura Wars 5 successful in Japan? The characters were done by Fujishima if I recall.

 

[Brofist]

Okay, so why is Graces performing like it is? If the devoted fanbase will go wherever Tales games go, why isn't it doing ToV PS3 numbers? It's a completely new game with all-new content. Is there something fundamentally wrong with the Wii?

Is it a question of not building up the userbase of the PS3? The Wii had a couple of Tales games on the system already, unlike the PS3. The biggest RPG on the PS3 to that point was what, WKC? Was it the flood of GUST and Nippon Ichi RPGs that made the difference?

I like how he didn't bother with a comeback to this :lol

No way to spin ToG sales, disappointing is the only word that applies.

 

[Bebpo]

Ok, I'm gonna lay down the generalized opinionated version of why Graces sold what it did:

Now I'm not even a huge Wii fan and will not try to hide my bias. I own all the systems and I truly enjoy my Wii on occasion when good games like Graces, Crystal Bearers, S&P2, Mario etc... come around. But I'm pro-3rd parties failing on the Wii because when it comes down to it I'd enjoy 95% of 3rd party games more if they were on a different system (5% being games that actually use the wiimote to further controls or innovation like S&P2 or No More Heroes) due to the poor online, jaggies, dithering, poor framerates, no achievements (although FF Crystal Bearers had them!), etc... that the Wii comes with.

Yet I can't even blame the 3rd parties on the Wii for Graces bombing.

Graces bombed because of FFXIII. FACT

Tales does not sell to a casual audience. Tales sells 200-300k each time because it has THAT BIG of core gamer fanbase that it's built up over the years. This core Tales audience owns all the systems except maybe X360 (probably 1/3rd own X360s, or "owned" them until they beat Vesperia). They are hardcore gamers.

Now I feel my tastes and spending and time management fall close to the upper spending end of this group of core rpg gamers in Japan. I did buy Graces, but I'm not playing it for a month or two because of FFXIII and then KH BBS. These are BIGGER games than Tales in Japan (FF/KH) and for your average core gamer (the kind that plays 10-30 hours a week, not 20 hours a day), They know, like I do, that if they start playing Graces now they will not be finished when FFXIII comes out and will have to make a decision on which to play. They can play Graces first and FFXIII later, but then they miss the party where all their friends are playing and talking about FFXIII right when it comes out. Then right after they'd probably finish FFXIII, KH BBS comes out. There is no time to play Graces until mid-late Jan...and then DQVIr comes out! Graces is getting squeezed out by SquareEnix.

See the thing is that NO ONE in the Japanese game industry expected FF this december or even KH or DQ in Jan. SE has never put out their huge games in December. Every year December core rpg gamer sales are left to Tales. There is a Tales every Nov/Dec and a few small action games and that's it for 3rd parties in Japan. SE has always put out their games at the end of fiscal quarters, usually focusing on March/June/July/Sept/Oct.

But this year SE went CRAZY. Whether it's because of the recession or just a new approach for the company they're releasing all their big hitters (DQIX, FFXIII, KH BBS, DQVIr) in a single fiscal year and 3 of the 4 in a single 90 day span.

No one could have predicted that. Like I said, Tales and NamcoBandai has a simple formula of always releasing a new mainline Tales every xmas period (sometimes 2 mainlines like in 08 with Vesperia and Hearts, so one gets xmas). Last year was Hearts (12/08),, the year before was Innocence (12/07), the year before was DestinyR (11/30/06), the year before Abyss (12/05), etc... Namco has a definite "this is when we sell Tales games" framework going. None of those years did they have a major SE rpg to battle against.

So here they are with Graces done and ready for December release. Suddenly FFXIII gets announced for Dec. They could delay the game until mid-2010, but they probably have other Tales games set for 2010 and that would encroach on them. Plus they are a Japanese company and Japanese companies FEAR CHANGE. They like to find something that works and stick to it over and over again. Which is why SE doing this maniac release of huge titles is shocking and throwing off EVERYONE in the industry. So at the end of the day they do nothing and gamers have to choose and Graces bombs. Only the upper spending end of the core Tales fanbase buys it anyhow like me, to shelve it for a month. The smarter ones figure by that time the pristine used copies will have dropped by $20.

Also the FFXIII monster did not hurt NSMB because it had A. The Casual audience buying a ton, B. The Nintendo faithful who don't own any other consoles buying it, and C. The Core gamers figured they could easily beat a mario game and keep it or sell it back in the 2 weeks before FFXIII. After all it's no 30-70 hour rpg. Tales has a very small casual sell and nintendo faithful sell, the majority of buyers are the core Tales audience and I'd wager 9 out of 10 of them are also buying FFXIII and that there is what's killing Graces sales.

 

[cvxfreak]

Nice post. 2004's Tales of Rebirth still sold well in spite of DQVIII (and I guess MGS3 and the fact Legendia and Symphonia PS2 were out mere months earlier), but that was ages ago when the series was AAA in terms of sales.

 

[schuelma]

Huh. Interesting.

If FF13 really has that big of an impact, I don't see why Namco couldn't have released Graces a few weeks earlier. Even if it hit in the middle of November that gives you a lot more room.

 

[Nirolak]

But this year SE went CRAZY. Whether it's because of the recession or just a new approach for the company they're releasing all their big hitters (DQIX, FFXIII, KH BBS, DQVIr) in a single fiscal year and 3 of the 4 in a single 90 day span.

This reminds me. Yoichi Wada was mentioning that he wanted to increase the number of core IPs (which he defined as games that could sell over 2 million copies with each major entry) Square Enix had from 3 to 8 so that Square Enix could release a major title every quarter on a two year time cycle.

If Wada can actually achieve this, this seems to mean we would be looking at a mainline Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, and Dragon Quest title every two years, and that's not even counting all their spinoffs and remakes such as Agito and Dragon Quest VI. This is also assuming that all five of the other IPs are not targeted at Japan, which might not be true.

I wonder if we could start seeing some serious choking out of smaller titles with such an onslaught of major titles during the year. If companies like Capcom and Level 5 can get a few more of their brands to become really major in Japan, I imagine the situation would only get worse.

 

[markatisu]

Huh. Interesting.

If FF13 really has that big of an impact, I don't see why Namco couldn't have released Graces a few weeks earlier. Even if it hit in the middle of November that gives you a lot more room.

Because it's Namco and that may have been a smart move

 

[Spiegel]

My theory is that there are too many big games released this December.

Wii = NSMB, SW3, ToG
PSP = GvsGN, PSP2
DS = Zelda
PS3 = FFXIII

We are probably looking at >4M between all of them just in December

For comparison, last year we had:

Wii = Taiko
PSP = Dissidia
DS = Tales of Hearts
PS3 = Gundam Musou, WKC

<2M in December

 

[schuelma]

My theory is that there are too many big games released this December.

Wii = NSMB, SW3, ToG
PSP = GvsGN, PSP2
DS = Zelda
PS3 = FFXIII

We are probably looking at >4M between all of them just in December

For comparison, last year we had:

Wii = Taiko
PSP = Dissidia
DS = Tales of Hears
PS3 = Gundam Musou, WKC

<2M in December

That also makes some sense. Ehh, we'll see..its still early.

 

[faridmon]

ok, maybe i am ignorant or something, but calling Tales of Graces a bomb would a tad of a stretch.

i think even Namco is actually aware that the series is declining. To compare against Abyss or even Vesperia is unfair. one came out with the popularity of the PS2 and when the name actually carried some weight, and the other one came out when the 360 was applauded as the successor of the PS2 when it comes to the RPG (don't question me about the PS3 version, since i don't have any explanation :lol )

I still think 300k LTD is ok to good expectation to have for this game (or is this a high budget game?)

i actually thought it would sell something like 50K first week after the bombing of so many Wii games the past 2 month or so :lol

 

[Sage00]

when the 360 was applauded as the successor of the PS2 when it comes to the RPG

You're really going to have a hard time justifying that this belief was ever widely held in Japan. It was still a console selling <10k per week with a userbase of half a million.

 

[faridmon]

You're really going to have a hard time justifying that this belief was ever widely held in Japan. It was still a console selling <10k per week with a userbase of half a million.

well, not as strongly, but it did have some RPG surge going on at that time With Tales of Vesperia, Lost Odyssey, Eternal Sonata and before that was Blue dragon and FF XI.

i actually remember many people here on GAF saying that it will have more RPG support and all.

 

[Y2Kev]

Bebpo, do you really think there is that much overlap in the audiences? Given that Tales fans are THAT "core"--the same 200-300k show up for every iteration--does it matter when you release it? How many are going to be dissuaded from picking it up because of another release?

I'm not saying it's not true in part, but in the past we see some Tales games doing well against other major RPG releases.

This reminds me. Yoichi Wada was mentioning that he wanted to increase the number of core IPs (which he defined as games that could sell over 2 million copies with each major entry) Square Enix had from 3 to 8 so that Square Enix could release a major title every quarter on a two year time cycle.

He's got Batman and Tomb Raider now, so that's 5. He needs 3 more franchises. Maybe he can try making another RPG FOR THE WORLD

 

[ccbfan]

I don't know whats sadder TOG sales or the damage control.

Watch Namco port this to the PSP.

The PSP version then outsells the Wii version and the Wii damage controllers state that the only reason the PSP port sold more is because the Wii version advertised for it and the Wii version didn't have this advantage.

I know this sound ridicules but what I'm reading right now is even more ridicules.

REally had Namco released it before NSMB it'll be.

OMG Namco is so stupid why would you want to release a game before a big game increases the userbase especially for a series not known to have legs. Namco is so dumb they don't even know how to ride coattails.

OMG had Namco didn't release a mediocre TOS2 this would sell better **goes back last week**. OMG if Koei had release some musou ports SM3 would sell so more better.

OMG PS3 version should be considered a brand new game cause the 360 is so unpopular.

Do I have enough OMGs?

 

[Rolf NB]

Do I have enough OMGs?

The pros don't use OMG. Too technical. If you want to make something seem that extra bit more genuine, you start your posts with "Wow" and end in an exclamation point.

 

[faridmon]

I don't know whats sadder TOG sales or the damage control.

Watch Namco port this to the PSP.

The PSP version then outsells the Wii version and the Wii damage controllers state that the only reason the PSP port sold more is because the Wii version advertised for it and the Wii version didn't have this advantage.

I know this sound ridicules but what I'm reading right now is even more ridicules.

REally had Namco released it before NSMB it'll be.

OMG Namco is so stupid why would you want to release a game before a big game increases the userbase especially for a series not known to have legs. Namco is so dumb they don't even know how to ride coattails.

OMG had Namco didn't release a mediocre TOS2 this would sell better **goes back last week**. OMG if Koei had release some musou ports SM3 would sell so more better.

OMG PS3 version should be considered a brand new game cause the 360 is so unpopular.

Do I have enough OMGs?

huh?

 

[AranhaHunter]

Well, there are different ways of looking at successful sales of spinoffs, especially from a developer/publisher point of view. While the Radiant Mythology games and Tales of Versus did really well in terms of sales, it does not automatically mean Tales Studio will go "Wow we always wanted to make a PSP Tales game, since people bought that games, it's time to start now!". Instead, they could just as easily be going "Well if we can keep outsourcing fanservice spinoffs on the PSP, and they sell so well, let's keep doing that."

Considering we've seen THREE of these spinoffs over the years, it's pretty clear that the intention is to keep building on the PSP as a platform for the fanservice titles (crossovers between the other Tales games), build the main RPGs are developed for other platforms.

Now, if ALL the Tales games on console and DS stayed at ~200k and declining, while the PSP games continued selling 300+k, then sure I can see them having no choice but to move the series to the PSP. But that's not the case. With ToV PS3's performance, I think as far as the Vesperia team is concerned, they are most likely already in development for the next HD Tales game for the PS3.

Furthermore, considering how they have already invested significant experience and development infrastructure on the DS and Wii internally, I doubt they will drop them immediately to work on a PSP game. Even with sales of ~250k LTD for each title, there's no reason why they wouldn't continue to make additional entries on the DS and the Wii for the near future.

They just probably won't have as much effort and budget put into them as compared to a scenario where ToH and ToG did really well. If that happened then I would expect the next DS and Wii Tales to be even more of a leap, simply because the fanbase was receptive. Since the PS3 fanbase was so receptive to ToV, I do expect the next HD Tales to get a substantially larger push by Namco to try and centralize the fanbase on one platform at least.

That's a pretty nice and thorough explanation and it makes sense. I'd like to ask you what you think of a TOG port to PSP? Surely with Tales game selling so well on PSP and with Wii -> PSP port seeming to be a common enough occurrence these days, do you think it makes business sense to do it at all? I personally think that if they were to do that they could sell an extra 200k copies of the game while at the same time Namco could say that they have given the PSP a mainline Tales game.

On the week's sale I wanna say that SW3 did better than I expected but of course not as good as the previous iterations but we already knew that wasn't gonna happen. Also NSMB Wi did some superb numbers, way better than I think anyone predicted, and I definitely did not expect NSMB to give such a big HW boost to the Wii this week.