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Media Create Sales: Week 10, 2013 (Mar 04 - Mar 10)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I half wonder if LM2 will end up pulling a YI2 and crawl to million seller?
Eeeh, it'd be an amazing result for the brand, on par with basically the Galaxy entries in the 3D Mario series...it could happen if its multiplayer modes attract the Monster Hunter crowd already present on the platform too.
Sammy Samusu
Member
C'mon now.
That's why Luigi's Mansion 2 as a million seller isn't a big possibility at the moment. It'd be quite a big achievement for the game to attract those players too, but I don't see it so possible right now
electroplankton
Banned
I think Luigi could easily do in the range 300-500k, depending how strong will be arrive to the Golden Week. 3DS is popular, and before Friend Collection, it has basically all attention on itself.
airmangataosenai
Member
Anything is possible, it isn't like we have many data points for the franchise and handheld versions tend to perform better. I dunno, it just seems unlikely that it will outperform Paper Mario to me. I know that probably seems like a weird comparison to make though, but I do agree with the range you gave.
Yes, due to the way PSN allows rankings. For 3DS, only the digital-only titles could use that, though, since the game just has to be played for an hour (digital or retail) to allow ranking.
Worldwide, LTD, I think that's a very likely possibility. In Japan only, 500K seems overly optimistic as a LTD total, though, for comparison.
Edit:
After reading the NES piece on Howard Lincoln and the 90s NOA folks (and remembering what that was like), I want lawyers with a killer instinct running NOA again. Invest in Next Level Games and bring them in as a second party. They're not RARE, but they're already seem much more capable than Left Field Studios.
Pirate Warriors 2 is the next game to watch the size of drop from the first one. Bad word of mouth for last year's release and being another musou game won't help.
But 500k preorders from retailers look on target to me unless it shows bigger than expected decline.
But 500k preorders from retailers look on target to me unless it shows bigger than expected decline.
Worldwide it could be a million seller yeah. In its first month. I have great feelings about it. My milion comment was referred specifically to Japan.
how long between it and its predecessor?
One piece as far as i am aware is still the nr1 anime in japan so unless they are milking the series i can't see why it cannot reach or get close to the numbers of the previous game .
Unless the game utterly sucks.
frankie_baby
Member
apparently the first game was a turd and had terrible legs, preorders seem they may be a lot lower this time
One Piece Musou 1 was released on March 1 last year so it's a little over a year for this sequel.
electroplankton
Banned
So, the first one did a total of 825,860 units, with a first week of 627,214 units.
How much will OPM2 drop? I would say 50%.
How much will OPM2 drop? I would say 50%.
Seems reasonable.
I more interested if Vita can catch a considerable percentage. Before the price cut I would've said like the PS360 multi versions (being Vita the 360).
Now it seems that can be a little better.
frankie_baby
Member
i'd say i big big drop, 270k tops for the ps3 version, 30-40k for the vita version
That would leave 200k unsold. Not gonna happen, even with price collapse it will sell more.
frankie_baby
Member
i was meaning week one sorry, if it has better word of mouth it may have better legs than the first if not yeah a price collapse should clean up the rest from shop shelves eventually
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
It often pays to never underestimate One Piece in Japan.
frankie_baby
Member
i'd expect one to be announced fairly sharpish when this game underperforms
electroplankton
Banned
It sold 278,657 units, which is great.
Anyway, I'm expecting something in line with Gigant Battle on DS.
Sammy Samusu
Member
One Piece 3DS is a Wii port, no?
But yeah, with PW2 out of the way, maybe it's time to announce a new game for the 3DS.
But yeah, with PW2 out of the way, maybe it's time to announce a new game for the 3DS.
[3DS] One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP (Bandai Namco) - 76.578 / 278.657 / 27,48% 26/05/11
It was a port of the two Unlimited Cruise for Wii. It came out when 3DS was still at 25,000 Yen, and it basically doubled each of the two entries, and outsold them combined. We've seen Digimon did the jump recently to 3DS (through a port of the PSP title), I'm expecting an Unlimited Cruise 3 coming to the platform.
It was a port of the two Unlimited Cruise for Wii. It came out when 3DS was still at 25,000 Yen, and it basically doubled each of the two entries, and outsold them combined. We've seen Digimon did the jump recently to 3DS (through a port of the PSP title), I'm expecting an Unlimited Cruise 3 coming to the platform.
I don't think that's likely. I recall reading that based on pre-orders the sequel is already expected to do over 500k. It'll be very surprising if the LTD drops 50%.
Bruno MB
Member
I was checking Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2 sales and it debuted even worse than I thought.
It barely sold about 30% of what the previous title did.
Still around 50.000 units on shelves.
That was a very drastic case. While I expect a sizable drop for One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2 it won't be that severe.
Worst-case scenario (35% retention)
[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2 (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.03.21} - 220.000
Optimistic scenario (60% retention)
[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2 (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.03.21} - 375.000
I personally expect around 300.000 units for the PS3 version. PS Vita 15% of PS3 sales.
Lifetime sales? whatever they manage to ship in its opening, it is said at least around 500.000 units. It won't need a new shipment.
It barely sold about 30% of what the previous title did.
Still around 50.000 units on shelves.
That was a very drastic case. While I expect a sizable drop for One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2 it won't be that severe.
Worst-case scenario (35% retention)
[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2 (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.03.21} - 220.000
Optimistic scenario (60% retention)
[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2 (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.03.21} - 375.000
I personally expect around 300.000 units for the PS3 version. PS Vita 15% of PS3 sales.
Lifetime sales? whatever they manage to ship in its opening, it is said at least around 500.000 units. It won't need a new shipment.
electroplankton
Banned
Over 500k? Mmh.
You know that pre-orders don't automatically translate into sales. We'll see.
According to Dengeki Metal Gear Rising also had 500k retailers orders, right? For retailers, it was expected to do over 500k and failed.
Dengeki Sales: Week 08, 2012 (Feb 18 - Feb 24)
Still, in Japan school ends this friday, and next week is holiday. So that should help OP2 to have a good second week and reach the 500k shipment.
Hero of Legend
Member
Anyone else think we'll see a shift of the DBZ games to 3DS considering Heroes large sales?
To me Namco would be looking at hard numbers to judge the series reception on 3DS and not at all to the view of the game's quality, might've been an uber cheap game as a test title I would think, and it looks like it really paid off.
Now get Dimps on Shin Budokai 3D! Please?
To me Namco would be looking at hard numbers to judge the series reception on 3DS and not at all to the view of the game's quality, might've been an uber cheap game as a test title I would think, and it looks like it really paid off.
Now get Dimps on Shin Budokai 3D! Please?
StreetsAhead
Member
It probably has no effect, but LM2 is also Nintendo's first game since December on 3DS in Japan. In fact, between Wii U and 3DS, this is their first game release in over 3 months.
thehypocrite
Member
Anyone else think we'll see a shift of the DBZ games to 3DS considering Heroes large sales?
To me Namco would be looking at hard numbers to judge the series reception on 3DS and not at all to the view of the game's quality, might've been an uber cheap game as a test title I would think, and it looks like it really paid off.
Now get Dimps on Shin Budokai 3D! Please?
We won't if they have ambitions to make a global release.
electroplankton
Banned
A Dragon Ball fighting game on 3DS would do nicely worldwide, given the target.
Considering how third party games seem to be doing on the 3DS outside of Japan I very much doubt that.
Hero of Legend
Member
I've also been dying for Arika to make a 3DS DBZ game, they worked with Crafts & Meister on Super DBZ IIRC.
Yep. I think Game & Wario is the next Nintendo-published title on March 28.
StreetsAhead
Member
Yep and after that the only other dated titles for Japan are the downloadable Pokemon Rumble U and the retail 3DS Friend Collection: New Lifestyle.
thehypocrite
Member
Looking at the results on the NPD and UK/Pal charts I disagree. I think the game would crater worldwide.
Hero of Legend
Member
Maybe western fans are just sick of Tenkaichi games?
I remember Animal Crossing getting so much coverage before it was released in comparison to Tomodachi Collection. I really think Nintendo need to mimic this with more footage, more special directs etc. getting people talking about this title. All we've seen are half a dozen little clips; I think this is where they fall a bit flat in comparison to the success of AC:NL.
thehypocrite
Member
The biggest hurdle isn't DBZ, I think the 3DS wouldn't be the ideal platform for the game if they are thinking in worldwide sales to get a profit. They should continue to make more 3DS DBZ games, however the budget should allow it to be profitable with the Japan sales only.
thehypocrite
Member
Honestly? Nintendo should clear their production pipeline of these types of games (TC/Brain Training/ETC) these games have way cheaper clones available on mobile platforms and these platforms are so prevalent that Nintendo should move all their production resources to Wii U and Tent-poles 3DS games. I would also do the same with Wii Fit U, I might even suggest canceling that one as the financial risk may be too high with the inventory cost of the scale.
These titles don't really cost Nintendo a lot of money to make, and they make them a very nice amount of money in return. It's not like these titles are a focus for them anyways, and they've got plenty of people working on more traditional games on both the Wii U and especially the 3DS. They may not be your type, but they're good investments for Nintendo to make.
StreetsAhead
Member
Still plenty of time for a Nintendo Direct, Chotto Direct focused on it, and TV commercials. As with Animal Crossing, the majority of the sales won't happen in launch week.
Incidentally, Animal Crossing is on its 9th TV commercial now, according to the official site.
I don't blame them for trying with these games again at all, they were massive money spinners last gen. Every generation will see new franchises succeed and others falter or be forgotten.
Wii Fit U is almost certainly done and just waiting to be released - it was, after all, one of the first titles shown off at E3 2011. Unlikely they'll cancel it now. Worst comes to worst, you bundle it with the white console and hope it sells to mums again.
These are the types of games that have typically been 'big hits' on Wii and DS, though. They certainly didn't predict that there would be a complete collapse on most of those more casual titles, while franchises like 3D Mario, Fire Emblem, and Paper Mario would go on to sell some of the best number for their franchises. Again, when some of these games were doing 3-5 million copies in Japan, giving up on them after one or two Wii/DS entries would have been foolish.
TC is just as relevant and will probably sell more than Luigi's Mansion 2. Let's not pretend that the rest of this year doesn't have those 'tent-pole' releases from them with Pokemon, M&L4, Mario Golf, Donkey Kong, and possibly Zelda. They don't have another game like TC announced for this year.
thehypocrite
Member
They are a waste, even more now with the Wii U situation. Nintendo isn't a niche company, they need to aim for big hits/homeruns/moonshots/etc. These types of games are no longer the evergreen forest they used to be, a big publisher like Nintendo needs to be focused and executing properly by putting all their resources where they need them the most. The Wii U needs high impact software, the 3DS has been established and it needs a stable supply of tent-pole releases. I don't see where TC/Brain Training fit in the strategy Nintendo needs to follow.
Making titles that make them money isn't a waste. Besides, they already have a packed schedule for the 3DS and they have heavy hitters coming for the Wii U later on this year, with some neat smaller titles making their way before then. Making these casual titles just makes some money that they can use to fund their bigger releases, and these games sell a good amount too, helping to build a bigger userbase.
They'll be fine.
Edit: Tomadachi Collection actually has a chance to be a breakout seller in the same vein as Animal Crossing too.
thehypocrite
Member
You say it as if they were obligated to try it again with these IPs but they weren't, there was sufficient data to determine these customers are being served better by the app store/mobile games ecosystem, however Nintendo left their own greed to blind them to the obvious.
LM2 will outsell TC worldwide. Do you doubt this? TC is a game that a publisher with a Japan only focus should make, not Nintendo. I also agree they do have several 3DS tent-pole releases schedule and that's all fine but doesn't make TC/Brain Training and Wii Fit U less of a waste of resources and money for a company like Nintendo.
serplux said:
Yes its a waste of resources and money because of a little something called Opportunity Cost and focus. Nintendo has 14 billion dollars in cash reserves, they have no need to make small titles to fund big ones. Why is so hard to call a spade a spade?
Also TC has no chance of getting even close to AC 3DS, I think it would outperform expectations if it sells 15% of AC3DS.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
The handheld staples (Sonic, Lego, Skylanders, Angry Birds, Kingdom Hearts, etc) are actually doing rather well. This isn't like Vita/Wii U where literally everything bombs unless it's bundled to success.
DBZ would probably do okay too, the games have traditionally sold best on Nintendo handhelds historically.