Media Create Sales: Week 17, 2017 (Apr 24 - Apr 30)

test_account

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Probably won't get massive amounts but it'll likely get some.
Shall be interesting to see at least =)


...... Ps4 is still hoping for their first 1 mil hit on retail front which even ffxv is not able to reach till now. Vs splatoon which even severly limited by wii u sold more than 1 mil.... debatable on what?
How many people do you think that really wanted to play Splatoon, but didnt since it was on the WiiU?
 

ZSaberLink

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Shall be interesting to see at least =)



How many people do you think that really wanted to play Splatoon, but didnt since it was on the WiiU?
If anything, the sales of titles like Mario Maker 3DS and potentially now Mario kart 8 Deluxe are showing there's quite a few people. Wii U only sold 3.3M in Japan on a console that never dropped price there (kept increasing with bundles). Now with the portable factor and a more popular console with Switch, you'd think Splatoon 2 would AT LEAST keep flat sales right (aka 1.6M+)? When the PS4 has yet to have a seller that large, and its best seller, FFXV, suffered huge declines and barely hit 1M, it's likely not going to be a contest unless DQ PS4 overperforms and Splatoon 2 underperforms pretty drastically.
 

DarkLordMalik

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I don't expect DQXI on PS4 to hit the 1 million sales milestone like people in this thread are predicting so far.

I expect it to open more than 500k but settle on somewhere between 800-900k. This should be the ceiling for it and I doubt it can top 1 million like FFXV. This would have been a piece of cake if there was no hypothetical 3DS version, neither a confirmation for a Switch version, but I think both of these factors will affect the sales potential of the game on PS4.

I do believe that DQXI PS4 has potential to do some solid numbers worldwide just like it happened with DQB. I expect the WW sales for PS4 to easily pass 1.5 million after release provided the Western launch doesn't take too long for it.

At the end of the day, if we combine the 3DS + PS4 + Switch version sales worldwide, this should have no trouble being the best selling DQ game.
 

test_account

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If anything, the sales of titles like Mario Maker 3DS and potentially now Mario kart 8 Deluxe are showing there's quite a few people. Wii U only sold 3.3M in Japan on a console that never dropped price there (kept increasing with bundles). Now with the portable factor and a more popular console with Switch, you'd think Splatoon 2 would AT LEAST keep flat sales right (aka 1.6M+)? When the PS4 has yet to have a seller that large, and its best seller, FFXV, suffered huge declines and barely hit 1M, it's likely not going to be a contest unless DQ PS4 overperforms and Splatoon 2 underperforms pretty drastically.
Yeah, the portable factor is indeed one thing, but i was under the impression that was thinking about the WiiU in specific and its low hardware sales, not that it being hindered due to being on a console.
 

DarkLordMalik

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I don't know if this is the right place to ask it but is there any indication whatsoever that Square Enix is interested in localizing DQHI+II for Switch? Have they indicated being satisfied with DQHII PS4's western sales or anything?
They would localize it if they can sell it for higher than $60, the current price for DQH2 on the PS4/PC.

Don't expect it to release so close to the western release of Heroes 2. I doubt they will bother with it since there is nothing additional added in the Switch version of the game and it is not like there is a sales potential for the games here.
 

Oregano

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I don't expect DQXI on PS4 to hit the 1 million sales milestone like people in this thread are predicting so far.

I expect it to open more than 500k but settle on somewhere between 800-900k. This should be the ceiling for it and I doubt it can top 1 million like FFXV. This would have been a piece of cake if there was no hypothetical 3DS version, neither a confirmation for a Switch version, but I think both of these factors will affect the sales potential of the game on PS4.

I do believe that DQXI PS4 has potential to do some solid numbers worldwide just like it happened with DQB. I expect the WW sales for PS4 to easily pass 1.5 million after release provided the Western launch doesn't take too long for it.

At the end of the day, if we combine the 3DS + PS4 + Switch version sales worldwide, this should have no trouble being the best selling DQ game.
You are setting your expectations a bit low there. PS4 DQXI selling 1.5 million WW would be a bit of a waste.
 

DarkLordMalik

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You are setting your expectations a bit low there. PS4 DQXI selling 1.5 million WW would be a bit of a waste.
Waste of what? This is as good of a number as it gets. Persona 5 managed to hit it so why not DQXI?

I think the best selling DQ on consoles was VIII and I doubt it managed to hit 1 million in Western sales alone. So half million for DQXI is a pretty reasonable expectation all thing considered.
 

Oregano

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Waste of what? This is as good of a number as it gets. Persona 5 managed to hit it so why not DQXI?

I think the best selling DQ on consoles was VIII and I doubt it managed to hit 1 million in Western sales alone. So half million for DQXI is a pretty reasonable expectation all thing considered.
Both VIII and IX hit a million in the west. The aim of XI(and specifically the PS4 SKU) should be to top that.

It would be a waste of potential.
 

frankie_baby

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I don't know if this is the right place to ask it but is there any indication whatsoever that Square Enix is interested in localizing DQHI+II for Switch? Have they indicated being satisfied with DQHII PS4's western sales or anything?
I wouldnt be surprised if it ends up as an eshop only release now (perhaps split back up into the 2 games seperately) unless nintendo publish it
 

thestopsign

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What you referenced was a post where I was theorizing how the Switch would sell at different price points with Splatoon enhanced port at launch(it was a post before Splatoon 2 was confirmed). I thought that a Switch Splatoon bundle at ¥25,000 would be able to move 10 million Switches before the end of 2017 in Japan.
The price of the Switch ended up higher than $200, Splatoon 2 wasn't ready for launch and there would be no bundles according to Nintendo.
Hence I toned my prediction down because of those factors rather than people taking me seriously. I don't really mind discussing why I'm predicting these things and owning up where I went wrong when for example Nintendo ships so few Switches for the launch, or how much lower actual shipments for 3rd party games were during the launch, I do lack knowledge on the Japanese retail market hence I take part of these discussions.
A theoretical enhanced version of Splatoon on Switch bundled would sell 10 million copies in 2017 alone if priced at $250? I'm out.

For all the unrealistic predictions you continue to pull this one will be closer from the sub 2m of some experts here.
It may be a closer prediction but the overall likelihood of it ever actually occurring would be closer to 0. No game in the history of the Japanese market has sold that much in the calendar year it was released. I had to double check if an old Pokémon game ever did, but none have.

Edit: Wait! Black and White did! They sold 4.9 million in 2010. Diamond and Pearl sold 4.3 million and both were released in September.
 

DarkLordMalik

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Both VIII and IX hit a million in the west. The aim of XI(and specifically the PS4 SKU) should be to top that.

It would be a waste of potential.
Even if tops 1 million on PS4 alone, the Switch version is a factor that is unknown here and depending on how it is released alongside the PS4, it will factor in the game's sales.

Unlike VIII and IX, both of which were confirmed for a single platform. So yeh, DQXI on Switch/PS4 can clear 1 million in the West but if we are going to expect that number from PS4, we need to have a clear idea of what to expect from the Switch version in term of release/version difference, etc.
 

Chris1964

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It may be a closer prediction but the overall likelihood of it ever actually occurring would be closer to 0. No game in the history of the Japanese market has sold that much in the calendar year it was released. I had to double check if a Pokémon game ever did, but none have.
Switch not Splatoon.
 

thestopsign

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Switch not Splatoon.
Ah, that's what I get for not checking the whole page. It's not a completely unreasonable prediction for the hardware. I don't think it will go quite that high, but it really depends on if Splatoon can drive continual demand once it's launched and if Nintendo can supply to meet that demand in the holidays. I think 3.7-4.1 million is closer to reality.
 

Oregano

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Even if tops 1 million on PS4 alone, the Switch version is a factor that is unknown here and depending on how it is released alongside the PS4, it will factor in the game's sales.

Unlike VIII and IX, both of which were confirmed for a single platform. So yeh, DQXI on Switch/PS4 can clear 1 million in the West but if we are going to expect that number from PS4, we need to have a clear idea of what to expect from the Switch version in term of release/version difference, etc.
In Japan Switch is an afterthought so I'm not sure why it would be treated with any more importance in the west. Either way they clearly want growth in the west and the PS4 should be the bulk of sales.
 

noshten

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Ah, that's what I get for not checking the whole page. It's not a completely unreasonable prediction for the hardware. I don't think it will go quite that high, but it really depends on if Splatoon can drive continual demand once it's launched and if Nintendo can supply to meet that demand in the holidays. I think 3.7-4.1 million is closer to reality.
Do you still strongly believe that Zelda won't manage a million by the end of 2017?
 

duckroll

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Do you still strongly believe that Zelda won't manage a million by the end of 2017?
Retail only? It's definitely going to be tough. Once it hits that 600-700k point, I think the adoption rate is going to be much slower and the attach rate with new Switch purchases will fall off. The ceiling for such games is pretty limited. If any Zelda can do a million in Japan again, it'll be BotW, but that is far from assured.
 

noshten

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Retail only? It's definitely going to be tough. Once it hits that 600-700k point, I think the adoption rate is going to be much slower and the attach rate with new Switch purchases will fall off. The ceiling for such games is pretty limited. If any Zelda can do a million in Japan again, it'll be BotW, but that is far from assured.
If the Switch is currently shy of a million and 4 million is a possibility according to thestopsign that would mean that out of 3 million possible new owners by the end of the year less than 16% would end up buying Zelda. To me that seems unreasonable and underestimates that this Zelda differs from past games, it has already been the most successful Zelda in a long while and it's on system that has a fraction of the user base compared to past Zelda games at launch. Switch and Wii U are the only system getting this unique Zelda, it has been well received by players and critics, it's accessible and has additional content coming.

The success of the Switch will push games like MK8D, Zelda, Minecraft and since the Switch is such a "starved" system new owners might as well buy one of those when they are picking up their Splatoon 2 machine.
 

Datschge

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Retail only? It's definitely going to be tough. Once it hits that 600-700k point, I think the adoption rate is going to be much slower and the attach rate with new Switch purchases will fall off. The ceiling for such games is pretty limited. If any Zelda can do a million in Japan again, it'll be BotW, but that is far from assured.
I think it will depend on how the two DLCs for BotW play out. Nintendo is getting more and more experienced at using continuous value adds for keeping a game's community alive, and even if single player BotW won't turn into an evergreen the DLCs (with respective new retail releases/shipments perhaps) may be a good opportunity to push it also into the new switch owners' mindshare.
 

13ruce

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Retail only? It's definitely going to be tough. Once it hits that 600-700k point, I think the adoption rate is going to be much slower and the attach rate with new Switch purchases will fall off. The ceiling for such games is pretty limited. If any Zelda can do a million in Japan again, it'll be BotW, but that is far from assured.
It will reach a million, the question just is when? 2017 is possible but my guess is 2018 when the goty version with all content releases wich will give it another sales boost.
 

thestopsign

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Do you still strongly believe that Zelda won't manage a million by the end of 2017?
I'm with duckroll, it'll be close combined with Wii U. I'll have a better feeling for if it will or not when we get sales for the week after Golden Week (this current week).
 

frankie_baby

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I'm with duckroll, it'll be close combined with Wii U. I'll have a better feeling for if it will or not when we get sales for the week after Golden Week (this current week).
If switch sales continue to hold up at about 40k i think it should stick around 10 to 15k til splatoon launches
 

duckroll

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I think it will depend on how the two DLCs for BotW play out. Nintendo is getting more and more experienced at using continuous value adds for keeping a game's community alive, and even if single player BotW won't turn into an evergreen the DLCs (with respective new retail releases/shipments perhaps) may be a good opportunity to push it also into the new switch owners' mindshare.
Sure but in the end we're still talking about a purely single player adventure game. It's not really something people play together and build a community around like Mario Kart, Splatoon, Smash Brothers, or even NSMB and Mario Maker. That's always been the main thing holding Zelda back. Could be worse though. Could be like Metroid, and just dead. :)

It will reach a million, the question just is when? 2017 is possible but my guess is 2018 when the goty version with all content releases wich will give it another sales boost.
I mean, if you want to count re-releases... sure?
 

frankie_baby

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I think it will depend on how the two DLCs for BotW play out. Nintendo is getting more and more experienced at using continuous value adds for keeping a game's community alive, and even if single player BotW won't turn into an evergreen the DLCs (with respective new retail releases/shipments perhaps) may be a good opportunity to push it also into the new switch owners' mindshare.
I think the DLC coming should also lead to less people selling their copies meaning less 2nd hand copies on the market than maybe previous zelda games gad
 

Oregano

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Come on man. You're just being ridiculous now.
I don't see how it's ridiculous to say the SKU missing from all the marketing, which probably isn't even being shown until the others are out for a while and will release at least several months later is an afterthought.
 

schuelma

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I don't see how it's ridiculous to say the SKU missing from all the marketing, which probably isn't even being shown until the others are out for a while and will release at least several months later is an afterthought.
Oh- I thought you meant that as a general statement on the Switch. I disagree that its an afterthought, but that's certainly not an unreasonable opinion. Carry on.
 

thestopsign

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If switch sales continue to hold up at about 40k i think it should stick around 10 to 15k til splatoon launches
Well, for solely the Switch version to hit 1 million, the game would have to average 17,031 units a week for the rest of the year. Adding in the Wii U version makes it a little easier at 13,820 a week combined for the rest of the year. If it dips below those weekly averages needed in the end of May or June, it has no shot.

A million could happen, but my prediction earlier this year, while low, will still almost certainly be closer than Noshten's at 1.5 million.
 

frankie_baby

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Well, for solely the Switch version to hit 1 million, the game would have to average 17,031 units a week for the rest of the year. Adding in the Wii U version makes it a little easier at 13,820 a week combined for the rest of the year. If it dips below those weekly averages needed in the end of May or June, it has no shot.

A million could happen, but my prediction earlier this year, while low, will still almost certainly be closer than Noshten's at 1.5 million.
With Wii U and digital I'm confident it'll make it, probably only just though
 

casiopao

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Shall be interesting to see at least =)



How many people do you think that really wanted to play Splatoon, but didnt since it was on the WiiU?
Tons of them? Mario Maker 3DS and Mario Kart 8DX already show how Wii U is their biggest reason why those title is unable to reach its full sales potential. And i don't see how Splatoon will be any different. Especially when this time, Switch is portable with LAN play too.
 
J

Jpop

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Both VIII and IX hit a million in the west. The aim of XI(and specifically the PS4 SKU) should be to top that.

It would be a waste of potential.
VIII had a FF demo and IX was pushed heavily by Nintendo.
 

Vena

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So Dynasty Warriors 9 sounds very ambitious: http://s13.zetaboards.com/koeiwarriors/topic/9028116/1/

I'm not expecting it to help at all in Japan, their sales might even have some 25-50%+ crash, but I feel it's worth noting that this sounds like a major investment for the company.
I'd have to wonder who this product is actually for, though, because it still carries a pretty baggaged brand for the West and the perception of Musou (and none of them have ever done all that fantastically short of the Zelda Wrapper). Is this more of a title for Asia?
 

casiopao

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So Dynasty Warriors 9 sounds very ambitious: http://s13.zetaboards.com/koeiwarriors/topic/9028116/1/

I'm not expecting it to help at all in Japan, their sales might even have some 25-50%+ crash, but I feel it's worth noting that this sounds like a major investment for the company.
I feel this title is made for west market or at least Asia market more rather than Japan. But the new focus there probably would mitigate some of the sales drop as being open world musou would probably attract some old fans attention for the game.
 

Ōkami

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Asia is a huge market for Koei Tecmo, they seem to have a solid footing in there, particularly with the musou stuff.

Usually when they mention what PS4 games are selling the most in China is musou, as such the move with DW9 is to tap into that audience, the open world move also helps with western audiences.

The strong precense of PS4 in Asia is also why DW9 won't release on other consoles, not only due to Sony's involvment but because there's no need to release anywhere else.

DW9 probably won't do too hot in Japan, but the rest of Asia will more than make up for it.
 

Mr. Pointy

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I still expect FE Musou to out sell DW9 worldwide. Unless DW9 is somehow the Nioh of musou and pulls a high-80 to low-90 MC average.
 

Ōkami

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Hyrule Warriors sold a million, which isn't that close to the best selling musou games.

Regular Fire Emblem games barely sell a million (that is, the last 2), people are putting way too much faith on a musou spin off.

It might sell more in the US, I wouldn't bet on it, but maybe, but not anywhere else, not even in Japan.
 

DecoReturns

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Ōkami;236318934 said:
Hyrule Warriors sold a million, which isn't that close to the best selling musou games.

Regular Fire Emblem games barely sell a million (that is, the last 2), people are putting way too much faith on a musou spin off.

It might sell more in the US, I wouldn't bet on it, but maybe, but not anywhere else, not even in Japan.
Yeah, Its strange that I see a lot of optimism for FE Warriors.
Maybe because its on the Switch it will do better (early release in life cycle and Fall date), But I don't see it reaching Fates or Awakening.

Then again it has a duel release, who knows how it will do
 

foxuzamaki

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Ōkami;236318934 said:
Hyrule Warriors sold a million, which isn't that close to the best selling musou games.

Regular Fire Emblem games barely sell a million (that is, the last 2), people are putting way too much faith on a musou spin off.

It might sell more in the US, I wouldn't bet on it, but maybe, but not anywhere else, not even in Japan.
What are the best selling mousou games, the one piece games?



Edit: Lao I believe awakening is at 2 million or at least close to it, I wouldn't call that "barely"
 

Skullwaker

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Awakening had sold 1.9m worldwide as of December 2014, while Fates had sold 1.84m worldwide as of March 2016. So I think it's safe to say they're both over 2m at this point, or at least really close.

Granted, FE Warriors isn't going to pull those numbers, but given that it's on the Switch, which seems to be a successful platform thus far, I can see it doing respectable numbers. And currently I think there is much more appeal in the Fire Emblem brand than the Dynasty Warriors brand. But we'll see.
 

jonno394

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Awakening had sold 1.9m worldwide as of December 2014, while Fates had sold 1.84m worldwide as of March 2016. So I think it's safe to say they're both over 2m at this point, or at least really close.

Granted, FE Warriors isn't going to pull those numbers, but given that it's on the Switch, which seems to be a successful platform thus far, I can see it doing respectable numbers. And currently I think there is much more appeal in the Fire Emblem brand than the Dynasty Warriors brand. But we'll see.
It'll also have the added benefit of being a single player heavy experience, which by the time it comes out will *potentially* be the first Nintendo single player focused title since launch.

Mario x Rabbids, if legit, could beat it to the punch though.