test_account
XP-39C²
Shall be interesting to see at least =)
How many people do you think that really wanted to play Splatoon, but didnt since it was on the WiiU?
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ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
If anything, the sales of titles like Mario Maker 3DS and potentially now Mario kart 8 Deluxe are showing there's quite a few people. Wii U only sold 3.3M in Japan on a console that never dropped price there (kept increasing with bundles). Now with the portable factor and a more popular console with Switch, you'd think Splatoon 2 would AT LEAST keep flat sales right (aka 1.6M+)? When the PS4 has yet to have a seller that large, and its best seller, FFXV, suffered huge declines and barely hit 1M, it's likely not going to be a contest unless DQ PS4 overperforms and Splatoon 2 underperforms pretty drastically.
DarkLordMalik
Member
I don't expect DQXI on PS4 to hit the 1 million sales milestone like people in this thread are predicting so far.
I expect it to open more than 500k but settle on somewhere between 800-900k. This should be the ceiling for it and I doubt it can top 1 million like FFXV. This would have been a piece of cake if there was no hypothetical 3DS version, neither a confirmation for a Switch version, but I think both of these factors will affect the sales potential of the game on PS4.
I do believe that DQXI PS4 has potential to do some solid numbers worldwide just like it happened with DQB. I expect the WW sales for PS4 to easily pass 1.5 million after release provided the Western launch doesn't take too long for it.
At the end of the day, if we combine the 3DS + PS4 + Switch version sales worldwide, this should have no trouble being the best selling DQ game.
I expect it to open more than 500k but settle on somewhere between 800-900k. This should be the ceiling for it and I doubt it can top 1 million like FFXV. This would have been a piece of cake if there was no hypothetical 3DS version, neither a confirmation for a Switch version, but I think both of these factors will affect the sales potential of the game on PS4.
I do believe that DQXI PS4 has potential to do some solid numbers worldwide just like it happened with DQB. I expect the WW sales for PS4 to easily pass 1.5 million after release provided the Western launch doesn't take too long for it.
At the end of the day, if we combine the 3DS + PS4 + Switch version sales worldwide, this should have no trouble being the best selling DQ game.
test_account
XP-39C²
Yeah, the portable factor is indeed one thing, but i was under the impression that was thinking about the WiiU in specific and its low hardware sales, not that it being hindered due to being on a console.
DarkLordMalik
Member
They would localize it if they can sell it for higher than $60, the current price for DQH2 on the PS4/PC.
Don't expect it to release so close to the western release of Heroes 2. I doubt they will bother with it since there is nothing additional added in the Switch version of the game and it is not like there is a sales potential for the games here.
You are setting your expectations a bit low there. PS4 DQXI selling 1.5 million WW would be a bit of a waste.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Waste of what? This is as good of a number as it gets. Persona 5 managed to hit it so why not DQXI?
I think the best selling DQ on consoles was VIII and I doubt it managed to hit 1 million in Western sales alone. So half million for DQXI is a pretty reasonable expectation all thing considered.
Both VIII and IX hit a million in the west. The aim of XI(and specifically the PS4 SKU) should be to top that.
It would be a waste of potential.
frankie_baby
Member
I wouldnt be surprised if it ends up as an eshop only release now (perhaps split back up into the 2 games seperately) unless nintendo publish it
thestopsign
Member
A theoretical enhanced version of Splatoon on Switch bundled would sell 10 million copies in 2017 alone if priced at $250? I'm out.
It may be a closer prediction but the overall likelihood of it ever actually occurring would be closer to 0. No game in the history of the Japanese market has sold that much in the calendar year it was released. I had to double check if an old Pokémon game ever did, but none have.
Edit: Wait! Black and White did! They sold 4.9 million in 2010. Diamond and Pearl sold 4.3 million and both were released in September.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Even if tops 1 million on PS4 alone, the Switch version is a factor that is unknown here and depending on how it is released alongside the PS4, it will factor in the game's sales.
Unlike VIII and IX, both of which were confirmed for a single platform. So yeh, DQXI on Switch/PS4 can clear 1 million in the West but if we are going to expect that number from PS4, we need to have a clear idea of what to expect from the Switch version in term of release/version difference, etc.
Switch not Splatoon.
thestopsign
Member
Ah, that's what I get for not checking the whole page. It's not a completely unreasonable prediction for the hardware. I don't think it will go quite that high, but it really depends on if Splatoon can drive continual demand once it's launched and if Nintendo can supply to meet that demand in the holidays. I think 3.7-4.1 million is closer to reality.
In Japan Switch is an afterthought so I'm not sure why it would be treated with any more importance in the west. Either way they clearly want growth in the west and the PS4 should be the bulk of sales.
Do you still strongly believe that Zelda won't manage a million by the end of 2017?
Retail only? It's definitely going to be tough. Once it hits that 600-700k point, I think the adoption rate is going to be much slower and the attach rate with new Switch purchases will fall off. The ceiling for such games is pretty limited. If any Zelda can do a million in Japan again, it'll be BotW, but that is far from assured.
If the Switch is currently shy of a million and 4 million is a possibility according to thestopsign that would mean that out of 3 million possible new owners by the end of the year less than 16% would end up buying Zelda. To me that seems unreasonable and underestimates that this Zelda differs from past games, it has already been the most successful Zelda in a long while and it's on system that has a fraction of the user base compared to past Zelda games at launch. Switch and Wii U are the only system getting this unique Zelda, it has been well received by players and critics, it's accessible and has additional content coming.
The success of the Switch will push games like MK8D, Zelda, Minecraft and since the Switch is such a "starved" system new owners might as well buy one of those when they are picking up their Splatoon 2 machine.
I think it will depend on how the two DLCs for BotW play out. Nintendo is getting more and more experienced at using continuous value adds for keeping a game's community alive, and even if single player BotW won't turn into an evergreen the DLCs (with respective new retail releases/shipments perhaps) may be a good opportunity to push it also into the new switch owners' mindshare.
Come on man. You're just being ridiculous now.
It will reach a million, the question just is when? 2017 is possible but my guess is 2018 when the goty version with all content releases wich will give it another sales boost.
thestopsign
Member
I'm with duckroll, it'll be close combined with Wii U. I'll have a better feeling for if it will or not when we get sales for the week after Golden Week (this current week).
I don't see that happening.
frankie_baby
Member
If switch sales continue to hold up at about 40k i think it should stick around 10 to 15k til splatoon launches
Sure but in the end we're still talking about a purely single player adventure game. It's not really something people play together and build a community around like Mario Kart, Splatoon, Smash Brothers, or even NSMB and Mario Maker. That's always been the main thing holding Zelda back. Could be worse though. Could be like Metroid, and just dead.
I mean, if you want to count re-releases... sure?
frankie_baby
Member
I think the DLC coming should also lead to less people selling their copies meaning less 2nd hand copies on the market than maybe previous zelda games gad
I don't see how it's ridiculous to say the SKU missing from all the marketing, which probably isn't even being shown until the others are out for a while and will release at least several months later is an afterthought.
Oh- I thought you meant that as a general statement on the Switch. I disagree that its an afterthought, but that's certainly not an unreasonable opinion. Carry on.
Oh right yeah... I was just talking about DQXI.
thestopsign
Member
Well, for solely the Switch version to hit 1 million, the game would have to average 17,031 units a week for the rest of the year. Adding in the Wii U version makes it a little easier at 13,820 a week combined for the rest of the year. If it dips below those weekly averages needed in the end of May or June, it has no shot.
A million could happen, but my prediction earlier this year, while low, will still almost certainly be closer than Noshten's at 1.5 million.
frankie_baby
Member
With Wii U and digital I'm confident it'll make it, probably only just though
Calm Mind
Member
This is funny.
Tons of them? Mario Maker 3DS and Mario Kart 8DX already show how Wii U is their biggest reason why those title is unable to reach its full sales potential. And i don't see how Splatoon will be any different. Especially when this time, Switch is portable with LAN play too.
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
VIII had a FF demo and IX was pushed heavily by Nintendo.
So Dynasty Warriors 9 sounds very ambitious: http://s13.zetaboards.com/koeiwarriors/topic/9028116/1/
I'm not expecting it to help at all in Japan, their sales might even have some 25-50%+ crash, but I feel it's worth noting that this sounds like a major investment for the company.
I'm not expecting it to help at all in Japan, their sales might even have some 25-50%+ crash, but I feel it's worth noting that this sounds like a major investment for the company.
MrCookiepants
Member
Probably Dynasty Warriors 4. Over 1 million.
hah, so it means that DW series doesn't sell that well in Japan after all
too bad ps4 never had good sales in japan
I'd have to wonder who this product is actually for, though, because it still carries a pretty baggaged brand for the West and the perception of Musou (and none of them have ever done all that fantastically short of the Zelda Wrapper). Is this more of a title for Asia?
I feel this title is made for west market or at least Asia market more rather than Japan. But the new focus there probably would mitigate some of the sales drop as being open world musou would probably attract some old fans attention for the game.
Asia is a huge market for Koei Tecmo, they seem to have a solid footing in there, particularly with the musou stuff.
Usually when they mention what PS4 games are selling the most in China is musou, as such the move with DW9 is to tap into that audience, the open world move also helps with western audiences.
The strong precense of PS4 in Asia is also why DW9 won't release on other consoles, not only due to Sony's involvment but because there's no need to release anywhere else.
DW9 probably won't do too hot in Japan, but the rest of Asia will more than make up for it.
Usually when they mention what PS4 games are selling the most in China is musou, as such the move with DW9 is to tap into that audience, the open world move also helps with western audiences.
The strong precense of PS4 in Asia is also why DW9 won't release on other consoles, not only due to Sony's involvment but because there's no need to release anywhere else.
DW9 probably won't do too hot in Japan, but the rest of Asia will more than make up for it.
Mr. Pointy
Member
I still expect FE Musou to out sell DW9 worldwide. Unless DW9 is somehow the Nioh of musou and pulls a high-80 to low-90 MC average.
Hyrule Warriors sold a million, which isn't that close to the best selling musou games.
Regular Fire Emblem games barely sell a million (that is, the last 2), people are putting way too much faith on a musou spin off.
It might sell more in the US, I wouldn't bet on it, but maybe, but not anywhere else, not even in Japan.
Regular Fire Emblem games barely sell a million (that is, the last 2), people are putting way too much faith on a musou spin off.
It might sell more in the US, I wouldn't bet on it, but maybe, but not anywhere else, not even in Japan.
DecoReturns
Member
Yeah, Its strange that I see a lot of optimism for FE Warriors.Ōkami;236318934 said:
Maybe because its on the Switch it will do better (early release in life cycle and Fall date), But I don't see it reaching Fates or Awakening.
Then again it has a duel release, who knows how it will do
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
What are the best selling mousou games, the one piece games?Ōkami;236318934 said:
Edit: Lao I believe awakening is at 2 million or at least close to it, I wouldn't call that "barely"
Skullwaker
Member
Awakening had sold 1.9m worldwide as of December 2014, while Fates had sold 1.84m worldwide as of March 2016. So I think it's safe to say they're both over 2m at this point, or at least really close.
Granted, FE Warriors isn't going to pull those numbers, but given that it's on the Switch, which seems to be a successful platform thus far, I can see it doing respectable numbers. And currently I think there is much more appeal in the Fire Emblem brand than the Dynasty Warriors brand. But we'll see.
Granted, FE Warriors isn't going to pull those numbers, but given that it's on the Switch, which seems to be a successful platform thus far, I can see it doing respectable numbers. And currently I think there is much more appeal in the Fire Emblem brand than the Dynasty Warriors brand. But we'll see.
Musou All Stars can be considered as a bad selling one lol
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Godammit I hate this phone I meant to say best selling musou
It'll also have the added benefit of being a single player heavy experience, which by the time it comes out will *potentially* be the first Nintendo single player focused title since launch.
Mario x Rabbids, if legit, could beat it to the punch though.