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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2013 (Jan 07 - Jan 13)

Laguna

Banned
@test-account
I think electroplancton is making some valid points, and I also pointed out some important differences, with the most important beeing that WiiUs direct competitors are not available yet [while PSV came after its direct competitor], another important point beeing available, feasible system-sellers (2 potential million sellers from the get go etc.pp, see my last post for further examples, especially the possible holiday 2013 titles and other 2013 releases like Pikmin, WiiFitU, Wario, DQ10).

While all products are somehow more or less in competition the pronounciation of the "direct competition" is an imprtant one, for example PS3 because it won´t be relevant forever and actually is in its phase out phase (product cycle).

To make a recent example, please look back when 3DS launched, PSP was still a relevant platform (2011) in Japan and even outsold 3DS in some weeks. But what does it look like now?


The biggest point is that Sony in a whole year just didn´t do a whole lot to push the system.
- no significant system sellers since launch
- no price cut
- no noteworthy releases this holiday season last month (December)

In the second half of 2012 they pretty much seemed to be apathetic to the system especially in Japan, evidenced and highlighted by the lacking and disapointing December lineup.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
The difference is that direct competitors of Wii U are PS3, PS4, Nextbox (unlikely); 3DS itself is a competitor, but to a less extent in my opinion, being an handheld; home console market is shrinking in Japan, but we have seen that it has still some space, in particular for Western perspectives. Hence, Wii U has, as competitors, one console that will be irrelevant in the next few years because of obsolence (PS3) and two platforms that are not in the market yet; hence, Nintendo could still take this year of advantage to do something; for example, in its first holiday season, Wii U will likely have big support from Nintendo (e.g. Yoshi's Island, new IP, sport Mario, let's say) + some games that have been released during the year and that will have an effect on sales (Wii Fit U, Wario); Nintendo could announce bundles, price cut, and even without a quite strong support from third parties, could easily perform well against the new platforms.

New platforms, indeed, will be launched and of course will have a barren line-up in the first period (as it always happened, since it's not common AAA titles are released so early in console lifetime). Hence, Wii U could take advantage of this thanks just to the fact that it's already in the market.

Vita didn't have that because it was released after its main competitor, 3DS, and with a still strong PSP (Wii U, instead, doesn't have to worry about Wii). Vita had its first year against a second year of 3DS that had everything: Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Animal Crossing, NSMB, new IP, old series, etc. etc. It's different.

I'm not saying Wii U will perform well, will "win" the race, etc. etc. just some possible scenario against the boring "Wii U is doomed".
I agree that there is a distinction between the console and the handheld market. I'm not actually arguing against what you are saying, because what you say regarding the WiiU might be a likely senario i think. It is possible that the one year head start could have a positive effect for the WiiU. I also think it is good to see some positive predictions too :)

I just felt that it was worth mentioning the Vita's one year head start over the WiiU because they both compete against eachother, and both will most likely have (Vita already had it) a not-so-good first year regarding sales. I didnt mean to say that the WiiU will see the exact same outcome as the Vita.


@test-account
I think electroplancton is making some valid points, and I also pointed out some important differences, with the most important beeing that WiiUs direct competitors are not available yet [while PSV came after its direct competitor], another important point beeing available, feasible system-sellers (2 potential million sellers from the get go etc.pp, see my last post for further examples, especially the possible holiday 2013 titles and other 2013 releases like Pikmin, WiiFitU, Wario, DQ10).

While all products are somehow more or less in competition the pronounciation of the "direct competition" is an imprtant one, for example PS3 because it won´t be relevant forever and actually is in its phase out phase (product cycle).

To make a recent example, please look back when 3DS launched, PSP was still a relevant platform (2011) in Japan and even outsold 3DS in some weeks. But what does it look like now?


The biggest point is that Sony in a whole year just didn´t do a whole lot to push the system.
- no significant system sellers since launch
- no price cut
- no noteworthy releases this holiday season last month (December)

In the second half of 2012 they pretty much seemed to be apathetic to the system especially in Japan, evidenced and highlighted by the lacking and disapointing December lineup.
I agree. I'm not really trying to argue against it because i know that the outcome can go both ways. I just wanted to bring up the 1 year head start for the Vita over the WiiU because i see some similarities between the two systems, mostly being the lack of 3rd party support. I'm not saying that the outcome for the WiiU will be identical with the Vita, only time will tell what happen :)
 

saichi

Member
You dont think there is any relevance between consoles and handhelds? I'm definitelly not the only one who believes that. As Chris1964 mentioned above, even Iwata himself think so.

No. I think it's relevant since all systems regardless console or handheld are competing for dev resource. However, it's not relevant that it doesn't help VITA's situation because it has one year head start over Wii U. That's all you are insisting.

VITA's current situation is not because of Wii U. Most games that were planned for VITA are moved to 3DS, not Wii U. So why does it matter if VITA has one year head start over Wii U?

EDIT:

I agree. I'm not really trying to argue against it because i know that the outcome can go both ways. I just wanted to bring up the 1 year head start for the Vita over the WiiU because i see some similarities between the two systems, mostly being the lack of 3rd party support. I'm not saying that the outcome for the WiiU will be identical with the Vita, only time will tell what happen :)

I'm not even sure you point anymore.
 
I agree that there is a distinction between the console and the handheld market. I'm not actually arguing against what you are saying, because what you say regarding the WiiU might be a likely senario i think. It is possible that the one year head start could have a positive effect for the WiiU. I also think it is good to see some positive predictions too :)

I just felt that it was worth mentioning the Vita's one year head start over the WiiU because they both compete against eachother, and both will most likely have (Vita already had it) a not-so-good first year regarding sales. I didnt mean to say that the WiiU will see the exact same outcome as the Vita.

I don't see Vita and Wii U as direct competitors. Vita competes directly with 3DS and PSP; Wii U with PS3 mainly, both PS3 and 360 in the West, and next-gen platforms. Assuming that the home console market will still be viable in the future (and I think it will be; it was during DS/PSP era, though declining, why not in the next few years?), Wii U still has the chance to be the leading console; it's now that Nintendo should exploit this one year advantage.

Having a one year advantage of Wii U, though, didn't mean anything for Vita, because the platform should have got PSP releases, and 3DS ones, mainly.
 
How do we determine if a piece of software is a system seller prior to being put on a system and generating hardware sales? I don't mean OLD IP, How can we define if a piece of software has the system seller quality prior to the actual effect if it were a new IP and hadn't produced that effect before? Can we?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Yeah, especially if we had to consider worldwide situation, Wii U is very likely to surpass Vita's LTD sales this year, if it hasn't already done it by now.
Yeah, if they are trying to go for the worldwide market, the WiiU might be a better choice, that is true.


No. I think it's relevant since all systems regardless console or handheld are competing for dev resource. However, it's not relevant that it doesn't help VITA's situation because it has one year head start over Wii U. That's all you are insisting.

VITA's current situation is not because of Wii U. Most games that were planned for VITA are moved to 3DS, not Wii U. So why does it matter if VITA has one year head start over Wii U?
Then we seem to agree because the first sentence you say there is my main point regarding what i said :)

I never said that the outcome will be identical between them. All i said is that the one year head start for the Vita over the WiiU did not help much for the Vita. With this i mean this:

The one year head start for the Vita over the WiiU didnt mean that publishers banked on the Vita. Instead, they banked on other platforms (mainly 3DS, PSP and PS3). The WiiU headstart over the PS4/Xbox 720 doesnt necessarily means that they will bank more on the WiiU. They might bank on other platforms instead (which is what happened to the Vita). Maybe i wasnt clear enough earlier with what i ment, but i'm talking about getting more 3rd party support than another upcoming system.

But as said, i'm not ruling out that it could be an advantage for the WiiU. But this explanation above here is why i brought it up, and that was my point with it :)


I'm not even sure you point anymore.
See my reply above =)
 
I never said that the outcome will be identical between them. All i said is that the one year head start for the Vita over the WiiU did not help much for the Vita. With this i mean that the publishers had one year to plan many games for the Vita, yet that didnt happen. If we look at the WiiU senario regarding 3rd parties, will they use the one year head start to make games for the WiiU? So far it doesnt seem like it.

Again?
It didn't happen because Vita is directly competing with 3DS and PSP, not Wii U. Many PSP releases should have been Vita releases, or at least multi. The same goes for 3DS; people were expecting MH for Vita, not for 3DS. Why you keep saying that the one year advantage over Wii U didn't help, when it's not the competition between Vita and Wii U that matters?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I don't see Vita and Wii U as direct competitors. Vita competes directly with 3DS and PSP; Wii U with PS3 mainly, both PS3 and 360 in the West, and next-gen platforms. Assuming that the home console market will still be viable in the future (and I think it will be; it was during DS/PSP era, though declining, why not in the next few years?), Wii U still has the chance to be the leading console; it's now that Nintendo should exploit this one year advantage.

Having a one year advantage of Wii U, though, didn't mean anything for Vita, because the platform should have got PSP releases, and 3DS ones, mainly.
It depends on where the publishers want to allocate their resources. This is what i mean with that the systems compete against eachother. Handhelds are a very viable alternative in Japan these days, so i can see that many games that would be a console game i.e ~10 years ago would have no problem being a handheld game today. But if a publisher strictly want to make console or handheld games only, then it is something different.


Again?
It didn't happen because Vita is directly competing with 3DS and PSP, not Wii U. Many PSP releases should have been Vita releases, or at least multi. The same goes for 3DS; people were expecting MH for Vita, not for 3DS. Why you keep saying that the one year advantage over Wii U didn't help, when it's not the competition between Vita and Wii U that matters?
I'm replying to different people, that is why i repeat it. I dont know if they had read my other replies/posts.
 
Anyway,
one thing that surprised me is how the original 3DS model is still selling well:
3DSLL: 56.377
3DS: 36.284
(this week); 3DS XL is preferred, of course, but the ratio is not as bad as I though. That's a new scenario for Nintendo, in the sense that the first DS revision, the DS Lite basically substituted the original model in a few months. Now, they have two models that are both selling well. That put a third revision scenario more difficult to happen in the near future, imo.
 

Baki

Member
Vitas direct competitor is 3DS which had a headstart of 10 months that was fundamental to 3DSs success in my opinion.

Finally, someone who sees eye to eye with me on this point! It wasn't the proprietary memory cards that hurt Sony, it was the late launch will allowed 3DS to maneuver to a much more market competitive price point!

That said, 24,498/$249.99/€249.99/£229.99 is not a good price-point for a dedicated handheld any more.
 
How do we determine if a piece of software is a system seller prior to being put on a system and generating hardware sales? I don't mean OLD IP, How can we define if a piece of software has the system seller quality prior to the actual effect if it were a new IP and hadn't produced that effect before? Can we?
You can guess based on various qualities, but I'd say that makes it easier to recognize the majority of games that won't make a big difference than to correctly pick the ones that will.
test_account said:
I never said that the outcome will be identical between them. All i said is that the one year head start for the Vita over the WiiU did not help much for the Vita. With this i mean that the publishers had one year to plan many games for the Vita, yet that didnt happen. If we look at the WiiU senario regarding 3rd parties, will they use the one year head start to make games for the WiiU? So far it doesnt seem like it.
It's all relative. In this U/V-only situation, the Vita is in a better position now than if it didn't have the last year of sales behind it.
WiiU

WiiU

Baki said:
Finally, someone who sees eye to eye with me on this point! It wasn't the proprietary memory cards that hurt Sony, it was the late launch will allowed 3DS to maneuver to a much more market competitive price point!
That and rack up a few major games to arrive in the same timeframe as PSV.
 

evangd007

Member
That is true, but i'm wondering if a publisher should start making a game next week for example, what advantage would the WiiU have over the Vita?

The PSP was a software wasteland in the West. Western publishers stopped making PSP games and Japanese publishers stopped localizing PSP games because software sales sucked. It's the same thing with the Vita, except in Japan as well now. Instead of asking whether to make a game for Wii U or Vita, the question should be, "Why make a Vita game at all?"

Nintendo also engages in sweetheart deals where they publish and market the game in the West for Japanese publishers, offloading that risk to Nintendo.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
It's all relative. In this U/V-only situation, the Vita is in a better position now than if it didn't have the last year of sales behind it.
http://garaph.info/linecompare.php/.../sys-0/PSV/date-0/launch/tra-0/fam/sys-1/WiiU
http://garaph.info/linecompare.php/...iulaunch/sfd-0/psvlaunch/tra-0/fam/sys-1/WiiU
Sure, that is true. The Vita also has more upcoming 3rd party support than what the WiiU has. Who knows if this is mainly because that the Vita has been on the market for a while now, but the overall Vita situation isnt all that great, so to me it doesnt seem that the 1st year has been too much of an advantage. But as you say, it is all relative.


The PSP was a software wasteland in the West. Western publishers stopped making PSP games and Japanese publishers stopped localizing PSP games because software sales sucked. It's the same thing with the Vita, except in Japan as well now. Instead of asking whether to make a game for Wii U or Vita, the question should be, "Why make a Vita game at all?"

Nintendo also engages in sweetheart deals where they publish and market the game in the West for Japanese publishers, offloading that risk to Nintendo.
Yeah, i was just taking the outcome if the choice was only between Vita and WiiU since it was kinda brought up earlier in the discussion. But there are other platforms to concider as well, so it can be easy to drop one platform and support the others instead, indeed.
 
Among them, the only one that has a chance in approaching the DS counterparts is Animal Crossing. It could easily go above 4 million units. Mario Kart can do 3 million easily as well. As for NSMB, it's impossible it will reach even the Wii entry, but it had also a stronger competition with 3D Land.
 
You can guess based on various qualities, but I'd say that makes it easier to recognize the majority of games that won't make a big difference than to correctly pick the ones that will.

True, I even agree that trying to argue that new IPs will become system sellers it's a futile endeavor. Like attempting to capture lightning.
 
I had a discussion with Road and wanted to propose a new thing about the prediction league: making a yearly contest when we have to predict how many copy a game will be sold by the end of the year, using the Famitsu top 100 for 2013.

Of course, only some games will be relevant, I don't think it will work with games like Dynasty Warriors 8, One Piece Musou 2 or even Dragon Quest VII when the first month prediction is enough, but it's could be fun to do that for some Nintendo games or for Monster Hunter 4. We can add this to the usual monthly prediction, and Road will keep the data until next year.

I don't see anything interesting in the near futur, but we can start by predicting the 2013 sales for 2011/2012 games, like these:
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Super Mario 3D Land
Mario Kart 7
Animal Crossing: New Leaf
New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Land

Maybe we can add Monster Hunter 3G (Best Price) and Tousouchuu?
 

L Thammy

Member
Sony might get some decent sales with Soul Sacrifice. The customers will be trading the system in afterward, but I guess that's better than nothing.


Is it unrealistic to think that New Super Mario Bros U will end up higher than 2? Maybe within the same range as Wii.

If I recall, Vinnk's mentioned his students wanting to play but not enough to buy the system just for Mario in itself.

It may make its sales after some yet unknown system sellers draw people in. And, obviously, it might bomb (relative to other New Marios) if these games don't appear.
 
Maybe ending up close to NSMBW is impossible, but is it really so much of a stretch to beat NSMB2 over time? 2 was disappointing despite being released after the 3D had its "holy trinity", while U is a launch title.
Despite faring far worse than it's predecessors, NSMB2 is still selling very well and will continue to sell into the 3DS' life. It will be the same for Wii U and NSMBU, but hindered by lower hardware sales and launching later than 2. There already a big gap between the two games as is. It just won't happen.
 

Kenka

Member
I had a discussion with Road and wanted to propose a new thing about the prediction league: making a yearly contest when we have to predict how many copy a game will be sold by the end of the year, using the Famitsu top 100 for 2013.

Of course, only some games will be relevant, I don't think it will work with games like Dynasty Warriors 8, One Piece Musou 2 or even Dragon Quest VII when the first month prediction is enough, but it's could be fun to do that for some Nintendo games or for Monster Hunter 4. We can add this to the usual monthly prediction, and Road will keep the data until next year.

I don't see anything interesting in the near futur, but we can start by predicting the 2013 sales for 2011/2012 games, like these:
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Super Mario 3D Land
Mario Kart 7
Animal Crossing: New Leaf
New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Land

Maybe we can add Monster Hunter 3G (Best Price) and Tousouchuu?
I am ok with this proposal: yearly predictions are made in the NPD threads, so why not here ? I agree also with the selection of titles, their legs make them more unpredictable.
 
Anyway,
one thing that surprised me is how the original 3DS model is still selling well:
3DSLL: 56.377
3DS: 36.284
(this week); 3DS XL is preferred, of course, but the ratio is not as bad as I though. That's a new scenario for Nintendo, in the sense that the first DS revision, the DS Lite basically substituted the original model in a few months. Now, they have two models that are both selling well. That put a third revision scenario more difficult to happen in the near future, imo.

That's not even comparable situation- DS Lite was superior in everything to orginal DS while XL is mostly as name implies super size me version.

You should be comparing do DSi vs XL models split.
 

Road

Member
I had a discussion with Road and wanted to propose a new thing about the prediction league: making a yearly contest when we have to predict how many copy a game will be sold by the end of the year, using the Famitsu top 100 for 2013.

Of course, only some games will be relevant, I don't think it will work with games like Dynasty Warriors 8, One Piece Musou 2 or even Dragon Quest VII when the first month prediction is enough, but it's could be fun to do that for some Nintendo games or for Monster Hunter 4. We can add this to the usual monthly prediction, and Road will keep the data until next year.

I don't see anything interesting in the near futur, but we can start by predicting the 2013 sales for 2011/2012 games, like these:
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Super Mario 3D Land
Mario Kart 7
Animal Crossing: New Leaf
New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Land

Maybe we can add Monster Hunter 3G (Best Price) and Tousouchuu?

So should we add Pokemon X/Y and MH4 too? They're obviously gonna sell much more than everything else.
 
So should we add Pokemon X/Y and MH4 too? They're obviously gonna sell much more than everything else.

Agreeed, Dragon quest VII would also be fun to predict for that matter, whereas most of those listed titles are going to sel abysmall figures overall imo, aside from a comeback during holidays season.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
True, I even agree that trying to argue that new IPs will become system sellers it's a futile endeavor. Like attempting to capture lightning.
I think it depends a lot on what the game offers. As JoshuaJSlone said, you can look at different qualities what a game offers and make guesses out from that (like most predictions work). Unless you mean to only have a one-sided arguement if a new IP can or can not become a system seller, and not keep both options open. New IPs can often be wildcards.
 

Opiate

Member
True, I even agree that trying to argue that new IPs will become system sellers it's a futile endeavor. Like attempting to capture lightning.

I'd add further that most of the lightning-in-a-bottle games (with the likely exception of CoD) were doing something mechanically unique that we couldn't have possibly known the value of until it was actually on us.

Wii Sports, Monster Hunter, DotA, Nintendogs and Brain Training all fit that description this generation: they weren't just tweaks of Gran Turismo or Mario or Halo, they were pretty original games, some even establishing their own genres in their wake. This makes it very hard to know what will blow up and what won't.
 

AzaK

Member
I'd add further that most of the lightning-in-a-bottle games (with the likely exception of CoD) were doing something mechanically unique that we couldn't have possibly known the value of until it was actually on us.

Wii Sports, Monster Hunter, DotA, Nintendogs and Brain Training all fit that description this generation: they weren't just tweaks of Gran Turismo or Mario or Halo, they were pretty original games, some even establishing their own genres in their wake. This makes it very hard to know what will blow up and what won't.

"Peek-a-boo Pikachu" bundled with Oculus Rift is my guess.
 

Road

Member
Agreeed, Dragon quest VII would also be fun to predict for that matter, whereas most of those listed titles are going to sel abysmall figures overall imo, aside from a comeback during holidays season.

I agree.

Maybe remove Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 and replace with Wii U and 3DS hardware?

Restrict to things that have a possibility of selling 1 million this year.
 

BadWolf

Member
Sony might get some decent sales with Soul Sacrifice. The customers will be trading the system in afterward, but I guess that's better than nothing.

The thing is though, Soul Sacrifice isn't that kind of game. You can't just finish it quickly and call it a day. Its the type of game that people spend hundreds of hours on and still come back for more. It has a lot of content and both online and offline multiplayer, the kind Japan seems to be really into.
 

perorist

Unconfirmed Member
Is there an up to date graphic of the vita first year sales compared to all the other consoles? I recall seeing one with the dreamcast / neo geo pocket / wonderswan on it a while back.
 

L Thammy

Member
The thing is though, Soul Sacrifice isn't that kind of game. You can't just finish it quickly and call it a day. Its the type of game that people spend hundreds of hours on and still come back for more. It has a lot of content and both online and offline multiplayer, the kind Japan seems to be really into.

Lol what the hell?

It wasn't a knock at the game, it was a tongue-in-cheek comment. I'm sure the game will sell decently at least, but do you think it will have a lasting effect?

Does anyone remember how quickly information about the final boss of MH3G was found on 2ch? I think it only took a week or two.

What the hell at decent sales or trading vita in afterwards?

A lot of used vitas showed up a week after Persona 4 golden so it has precedence.

Didn't it also happen with the 360 and Blue Dragon?
 

Bruno MB

Member
So another week where everything is going to drop, probably about a 20%?

3DS (80k)
PS3 (18k)
Wii U (16.5k)
PS Vita (8.5k)

I'm curious about DmC.
 

Road

Member
Just realized why the Nintendo Direct is gonna be 11 pm in Japan: Trying to deviate attention from the weekly Media Create / Famitsu sales...

No, I don't actually believe that.
 
With all the excitement from the Sony and MS console threads and ND I completely forgot this was today.

Wii U drop smaller than I expected but still terrible. 3DS is a monster.
 
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