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[Lostconfused]

Last I checked, Tekken has licensed characters.

And apparently they have no value, so why does it matter if they are there.

 

[thestopsign]

I'm mixing numbers because MC doesn't provide digital estimates.
These are the only numbers we have for digital and they could be widely incorrect since I have no idea what type of methodology Famitsu uses. If you have some MC based digital estimates perhaps you can provide those for us but I guarantee that you don't

All I'm saying is don't put Media Create physical sales with Famitsu digital sales, you can't assume what each of the trackers do doesn't overlap in some way. You can pair Famitsu physical and digital, but not mix and match.

 

[The Horror the horror]

And apparently they have no value, so why does it matter if they are there.

Of course they do, just to fewer people.

 

[Vena]

Looks like I was right on ARMS content issues for Western reviews.

 

[Toni]

It's a bit high but Switch will sell closer to that than the last few consoles.(provided they sort out the shortages)

You are really shooting imensely high for the Switch.

This isnt another Wii phenomenom. The Switch wont sell 4 million in a year. With or without stock. Its simply unsrealistic expectations.

 

[Fularu]

You are really shooting imensely high for the Switch.

This isnt another Wii phenomenom. The Switch wont sell 4 million in a year. With or without stock. Its simply unsrealistic.

It's unrealistic based on what exactly?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

I doubt T7 numbers include digital but I might as well ask: Does that 60K include digital?

 

[thestopsign]

You are really shooting imensely high for the Switch.

This isnt another Wii phenomenom. The Switch wont sell 4 million in a year. With or without stock. Its simply unsrealistic expectations.

Switch would absolutely sell 4 million this year if there was the stock for it.

I doubt T7 numbers include digital but I might as well ask: Does that 60K include digital?

No, we will see digital sales for it in about a month. It should be in the range of 10-20% of the total

 

[Toni]

It's unrealistic based on what exactly?

Man, its not selling 4 million in japan in a year lol.

 

[sinonobu]

You are really shooting imensely high for the Switch.

This isnt another Wii phenomenom. The Switch wont sell 4 million in a year. With or without stock. Its simply unsrealistic expectations.

@Japan? It will probably sell even more than that if they have enough stock

 

[boiled goose]

Nintendo lost money on Wii and wiiu because of supply issues and now Switch situation is a disaster again.

They are so out of touch with audiences. :/

They should be ramming Switches now that hype and demand is hot.

What a mess..

 

[Fularu]

Man, its not selling 4 million in japan in a year lol.

Outside of "lol" can you explain why it's unrealistic

 

[Oregano]

Man, its not selling 4 million in japan in a year lol.

Go check out how much 3DS sold in its first year and then realise Switch is already trending that way and has a much better lineup.

 

[EDarkness]

Nintendo lost money on Wii and wiiu because of supply issues and now Switch situation is a disaster again.

They are so out of touch with audiences. :/

They should be ramming Switches now that hype and demand is hot.

What a mess..

Really...after the January event, who thought that the NS was going to take off like it was? Most of the discussion was that it was dead in the water. Hindsight and all that....

 

[Vena]

Nintendo lost money on Wii and wiiu because of supply issues and now Switch situation is a disaster again.

They are so out of touch with audiences. :/

They should be ramming Switches now that hype and demand is hot.

What a mess..

There's a weird number of incorrect statements here, not even sure what you're getting at.

 

[PantsuJo]

vanilla tekken 6 arcade is 2 years earlier than tekken 6 console, basically about the same gap with tekken 7 situation

But mobile gaming wasn't strong at the time as it is today in Japan, so Tekken 7 results are absolutely expected.

 

[Eolz]

So is this week's thread about fighting games this time?

 

[boiled goose]

I think fighting games need to go through a revolutionary update.

There's just not much there in terms of value for casual players.

Single player content in games like smash and NRS games is great for casual audiences but is expensive.

What I would suggest instead is compelling online modes for casual players. Look at games like COD, splatoon, overwatch. Online play is fun and engaging with shit to unlock, deep ranking systems, achievements etc.

Online play for fighting games is so basic. It's only fun if you are serious. There's so much room for compelling gamification and progression.

 

[Toni]

Outside of "lol" can you explain why it's unrealistic

Im baffled as to why you keep citing information why it wont sell 4 million, the thought itself is impossible.

No console has ever sold that much in a year in Japan.

And this is isnt the early 2000's. There is a huge contrast in home console sales now.

The Switch would have to sell at insane proportions in a weekly basis for that to even be feasible, which means selling more than the PS2 and Wii did on a weekly basis in their peak. Which is an impossible feat with the status of japan's console market today.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Outside of "lol" can you explain why it's unrealistic

why you don't explain to us why it should be realistic ? lol

 

[Chris1964]

Man, its not selling 4 million in japan in a year lol.

You are right. It will sell more if Nintendo puts shipments in other.

 

[Aostia]

Wow at the PS4 bump due to such a low debut for Tekken!

 

[boiled goose]

There's a weird number of incorrect statements here, not even sure what you're getting at.

What's incorrect?

I don't mean they lost money overall. I'm saying they lost opportunities with Wii and switch and oversupplied wiiu.

 

[darkstar0155]

My thoughts are more whether demand for Zelda will cool as other high-profile releases appear. But it's got very good WoM, so that might not be a problem.

That definitely could happen. Although it doesn't really seem like its happened yet. Plus, outside of Mario and XC2 are there really any single player focused games on the horizon? The DLC will also keep its mindshare up.

 

[Oregano]

Im baffled as to why you keep citing information why it wont sell 4 million, the thought itself is impossible.

No console has ever sold that much in a year in Japan.

And this is isnt the early 2000's. There is a huge contrast in home console sales now.

The Switch would have to sell at insane proportions in a weekly basis for that to even be feasible, which means selling more than the PS2 and Wii did on a weekly basis in their peak. Which is an impossible feat with the status of japan's console market today.

Well that's just not true.

 

[Vena]

What's incorrect?

I don't mean they lost money overall. I'm saying they lost opportunities with Wii and switch and oversupplied wiiu.

The Wii was the fastest shipped console ever. There's a limit on what they can do vs. obscene demand.

Switch shortages are industry wide NAND shortages, not much Nintendo can do right now until there's increased production.

 

[boiled goose]

You are right. It will sell more if Nintendo puts shipments in other.

Definitely.

Splatoon sales on freaking wiiu should be telling .

 

[darkstar0155]

Im baffled as to why you keep citing information why it wont sell 4 million, the thought itself is impossible.

No console has ever sold that much in a year in Japan.

And this is isnt the early 2000's. There is a huge contrast in home console sales now.

The Switch would have to sell at insane proportions in a weekly basis for that to even be feasible, which means selling more than the PS2 and Wii did on a weekly basis in their peak. Which is an impossible feat with the status of japan's console market today.

at this point its not happening... if there was ample stock from launch forward it could have hit it. Really looks like its a hugely in demand product out there.

 

[KtSlime]

You are really shooting imensely high for the Switch.

This isnt another Wii phenomenom. The Switch wont sell 4 million in a year. With or without stock. Its simply unsrealistic expectations.

How much it can sell is completely untested as there is a deficit of Switches and not a surplus. We have no idea what the upper limit is, we do know that it will have the biggest ips on the platform.

 

[noshten]

All I'm saying is don't put Media Create physical sales with Famitsu digital sales, you can't assume what each of the trackers do doesn't overlap in some way. You can pair Famitsu physical and digital, but not mix and match.

"Famitsu digital sales" aren't sales - they are guesses especially when it comes to Nintendo. Unless Nintendo themselves come out and provide digital numbers all we can do is speculate.
Famitsu is the only tracker that provides these estimates and all I'm using them for is to provide context about potential digital adoption in Japan for BotW. I used MC numbers because they are easiest to locate in threads.
In the end digital sales could be lower or higher but we have no way of knowing so we work with these numbers since they are the only known ones.

I still don't understand the underlining problem is. Is it a great crime I've committed by using Famitsu digital estimates and MC numbers? Is there some sort of MC Rule Book I aint following?

 

[Fularu]

Im baffled as to why you keep citing information why it wont sell 4 million, the thought itself is impossible.

No console has ever sold that much in a year in Japan.

And this is isnt the early 2000's. There is a huge contrast in home console sales now.

The Switch would have to sell at insane proportions in a weekly basis for that to even be feasible, which means selling more than the PS2 and Wii did on a weekly basis in their peak. Which is an impossible feat with the status of japan's console market today.

Yes because the switch is like every other home console released before.

Or maybe (just maybe) it's trending to sell at the very least 3 million units in Japan by december, probably more if Nintendo can ship enough stock to meet the current demand.

You have provided noninputs as to why demand will suddenly crash with the current known lineup of games to make that 4 million units "lol not happening"

 

[AcademicSaucer]

Really...after the January event, who thought that the NS was going to take off like it was? Most of the discussion was that it was dead in the water. Hindsight and all that....

This, there were even people saying 2 million for March was too much.

 

[Chris1964]

Arms and Splatoon aren't far. Soon we'll see how much stock Nintendo can provive and not only at their launch weeks. Until then everything else is the usual clueless GAF prediction of the future.

 

[boiled goose]

The Wii was the fastest shipped console ever. There's a limit on what they can do vs. obscene demand.

Switch shortages are industry wide NAND shortages, not much Nintendo can do right now until there's increased production.

Those are explanations of what is happening. Doesn't invalidate my statement that Nintendo once again failed to properly assess demand of their console.

At this point there's not much they can do. If they knew what they know now back then they would have planned differently.

 

[Toni]

Yes because the switch is like every other home console released before.

Or maybe (just maybe) it's trending to sell at the very least 3 million units in Japan by december, probably more if Nintendo can ship enough stock to meet the current demand.

You have provided noninputs as to why demand will suddenly crash with the current known lineup of games to make that 4 million units "lol not happening"

Putting it at 4 million based on whether "Nintendo stocks enough" doesn't also warrant it selling 4 million in a year though?

It can have the most amazing line up of games in Japan. So did PS4 and Wii U, but that did not earn them 4 million units of hardware sold in a year. Especially today, where home console sales are at an all time low in Japan.

You are saying the Switch will single handely revive the entire console industry in Japan (which has been dead since Apple took over the world), because... it has a killer line up of games?

The hype is for the Switch is crazy, I know. But it would literally have to freeze hell or shake the entire console industry in Japan for it to sell 4 or 3 million.

 

[boiled goose]

Putting it at 4 million based on whether "Nintendo stocks enough" doesn't also warrant it selling 4 million in a year though?

It can have the most amazing line up of games in Japan. So did PS4 and Wii U, but that did not earn them 4 million units of hardware sold in a year. Especially today, where home console sales are at an all time low in Japan.

You are saying the Switch will single handely revive the entire console industry in Japan (which has been dead since Apple took over the world), because... it has a killer line up of games?

Both ps4 and wiiu had horrible 1st year lineups

Also , switch is not just a home console.

 

[Plainsong]

If they continue to provide only 100k consoles a month they'll get nowhere near 4 million. I don't know when we'll see the results of them upping production but it needs to start happening soon.

 

[schuelma]

Putting it at 4 million based on whether "Nintendo stocks enough" doesn't also warrant it selling 4 million in a year though?

It can have the most amazing line up of games in Japan. So did PS4 and Wii U, but that did not earn them 4 million units of hardware sold in a year. Especially today, where home console sales are at an all time low in Japan.

You are saying the Switch will single handely revive the entire console industry in Japan (which has been dead since Apple took over the world), because... it has a killer line up of games?

Switch first 9 months lineup blows away Wii U and PS4. Splatoon 2 alone guarantees that.

 

[phanphare]

Putting it at 4 million based on whether "Nintendo stocks enough" doesn't also warrant it selling 4 million in a year though?

It can have the most amazing line up of games in Japan. So did PS4 and Wii U, but that did not earn them 4 million units of hardware sold in a year. Especially today, where home console sales are at an all time low in Japan.

You are saying the Switch will single handely revive the entire console industry in Japan (which has been dead since Apple took over the world), because... it has a killer line up of games?

you keep referring to it as a home console

maybe that's your main mistake

also lol at saying the PS4 and Wii U had an amazing line up of games for Japan in their early days. can you provide some examples of that please?

 

[Fularu]

Putting it at 4 million based on whether "Nintendo stocks enough" doesn't also warrant it selling 4 million in a year though?

It can have the most amazing line up of games in Japan. So did PS4 and Wii U, but that did not earn them 4 million units of hardware sold in a year. Especially today, where home console sales are at an all time low in Japan.

You are saying the Switch will single handely revive the entire console industry in Japan (which has been dead since Apple took over the world), because... it has a killer line up of games?

No, because it disrupts the home console paradigm.

And obviously judging by the constant shortages 3 months after release during the slowest period of the year, that's how japanese consumers see it too. It's attractive to them, unlike both the WiiU and the PS4.

 

[kvetcha]

No console has ever sold that much in a year in Japan.

Portables & Home Consoles 6th / 7th / 8th Gen Yearly Performances (Famitsu):
By yearly sales:
01. DS (2006) 8,862,969
---------------------------------------------- 150K a week (7,800,000)
02. DS (2007) 7,143,702
03. 3DS (2012) 5,626,763
---------------------------------------------- 100K a week (5,200,000)
04. 3DS (2013) 4,931,509
05. GBA (2001) 4,200,311
06. 3DS (2011) 4,135,739 (launch / 44 weeks of data)
07. DS (2008) 4,029,804
08. DS (2009) 4,025,313
09. DS (2005) 4,002,871
----------------------------------------------- 75K a week (3,900,000)
10. PS2 (2000) 3,748,200
11. WII (2007) 3,629,361
12. GBA (2003) 3,613,259
13. PS2 (2002) 3,652,800
14. PS2 (2001) 3,603,700
15. PSP (2008) 3,543,171
16. GBA (2002) 3,366,723
17. 3DS (2014) 3.153.045

Hm.

 

[schuelma]

Anyone more knowledgeable than me explain Seiken Densetsu Collection's performance? I genuinely do not get how it sold 30K copies.

 

[boiled goose]

If they continue to provide only 100k consoles a month they'll get nowhere near 4 million. I don't know when we'll see the results of them upping production but it needs to start happening soon.

Has Nintendo ever confirmed first hand that production is increasing?

 

[Chris1964]

Switch first 9 months lineup blows away Wii U and PS4. Splatoon 2 alone guarantees that.

Switch will outsell PS4 first year sales in a few weeks. It's more than a joke still comparing it to PS4 or Wii U.

 

[Fiendcode]

.
The genre is pretty dead if not a single other release can do that.

Pokken went on to do 170k. On Wii U. In 2016.

Find a new narrative.

 

[Toni]

Hm.

Well, yeah? Exactly.

Way back in the early 2000's where smartphone didn't exist, Apple didnt explode, and console hardware sales where super healthy.

Today? No console is selling that much again,

 

[KillerMan91]

Im baffled as to why you keep citing information why it wont sell 4 million, the thought itself is impossible.

No console has ever sold that much in a year in Japan.

And this is isnt the early 2000's. There is a huge contrast in home console sales now.

The Switch would have to sell at insane proportions in a weekly basis for that to even be feasible, which means selling more than the PS2 and Wii did on a weekly basis in their peak. Which is an impossible feat with the status of japan's console market today.

?

PS1, GBA, DS and 3DS all have had year when they sold over 4 million units of HW in Japan. 3DS even had year when it sold over 5 million and DS had year when it sold over 8 million.

Edit. Seems I was slow.

 

[darkstar0155]

Putting it at 4 million based on whether "Nintendo stocks enough" doesn't also warrant it selling 4 million in a year though?

It can have the most amazing line up of games in Japan. So did PS4 and Wii U, but that did not earn them 4 million units of hardware sold in a year. Especially today, where home console sales are at an all time low in Japan.

You are saying the Switch will single handely revive the entire console industry in Japan (which has been dead since Apple took over the world), because... it has a killer line up of games?

The hype is for the Switch is crazy, I know. But it would literally have to freeze hell or shake the entire console industry in Japan for it to sell 4 or 3 million.

PS4 and WiiU had great first year lineups in Japan? Whaa? The switch lineup blows them out of the water on BotW and Splatoon2 alone, not alone with XC2 and a new Mario, and no Pok.Tournement or whatever its called.

 

[ZSaberLink]

You are really shooting imensely high for the Switch.

This isnt another Wii phenomenom. The Switch wont sell 4 million in a year. With or without stock. Its simply unsrealistic expectations.

I don't think you actually know Japanese sales #s..... The Switch is also a portable, thus it easily has a chance given its sold-out state and the titles releasing this year. PS4 & Wii U had HORRID 1st year lineups to the point that the Wii U outsold the PS4 in similar timeframes.

3DS approx sales each year in JAPAN
4.1M - 2011
5.6M - 2012
4.9M - 2013
3M - 2014

People are saying it's possible for the Switch to sell similarly to the 3DS if they sort out stock issues with the main driver being Splatoon 2 (alongside Mario, MK8 Deluxe, Zelda, MHXX, etc.).

Edit: Whoops looks like i was beaten... by a quote of an older post of mine xD. Looks like I remembered the #s correctly though .

 

[darkstar0155]

Well, yeah? Exactly.

Way back in the early 2000's where smartphone didn't exist, Apple didnt explode, and console hardware sales where super healthy.

Today? No console is selling that much again,

So since it hasn't happened since means it will never happen again is your argument. It's pretty obvious by now that the Switch isn't following any recent trends for console sales in Japan and is more closely mirroring handhelds.