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thestopsign
Member
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.
And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success
I agree. Even in the minor variations week to week Zelda has seen steady small decline despite there being a few thousand more units on the shelves some weeks. It should see a slight bump next week with the increased Switch stock. It will be really telling, big picture-wise, how big that increase is comparatively to the Switch stock increase.
It sold 11,119 total this week in Media Create. So under that weekly mark already.
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.
And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success
BOTW will make it to 1 million #Believe
I don't think so
So if Nintendo resolves the manufacturing issues, can we all agree that the Switch could sell over 4 million in Japan by the end of the year?
If the Switch sells over 4 million by the end of the year there are weeks where it would need to sell north of 100K.
You all don't think its feasible that Zelda BotW is going to remain a compelling game for new buyers. You seem to think because previous Zelda followed a particular sales trend in Japan that BotW would follow a similar trend despite BotW already doing statistically better than prior titles on systems with much larger audiences.
Switch has 4 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 20% attach rate for the rest of the year
Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 12.5% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year
Switch has 4.5 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 14% attach rate for the rest of the year
Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 10.5% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year
Switch has 5 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 12.5% attach rate for the rest of the year
Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 9.25% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year
None of this accounts for digital sales or additional Wii U Zelda sales.
Why do you guys think Zelda is going to have lower than 10% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year in Japan?
darkstar0155
Member
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.
And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success
Doubt it will reach that on switch until a few holidays, but combined Switch and Wii U I still feel it will reach that by the time it hits its 1 year anniversary.
darkstar0155
Member
Yeah, but one holiday season can easily make up for that. Sales should spike during the holidays.
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.
And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success
It will have long legs. The userbase is still under 1 mil due to shortages. In the years ahead when the userbase has grown I think it will
Gotdatmoney
Member
I actually think it's gonna pull 70-75k. I think it'll over perform the expectations a bit. Legs will be important though
Talking about hardware.
Shipments will increase worldwide, not only in Japan. 50k top is what should expected. There was already a small rise last week.
Splatoon 2 and the weeks after it will define how high available stock can go, not Arms.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
With the impending physical release of the upgraded Minecraft for Switch, Splatoon 2, and continued sales of Zelda and Mario Kart I have a very real feeling that we're looking at a top 5 in media create dominated by Switch for most of the year.
Nintendo was smart to get out a Mario Kart so soon (it has long proven to be an evergreen franchise), and Minecraft is also a big evergreen title (and being the only upgraded version with cross play and the enhanced graphics on a viable platform in Japan will surely help).
I'm really not sure if Splatoon 2 is going to be an evergreen title like the Wii U version, or more front loaded.
Either way Nintendo is set to dominate the software charts in japan for this year, and I really won't be surprised to see Minecraft and Mario Kart still in the top 10 through most of next year as well.
Next year I imagine we'll see Animal Crossing as well which is probably their biggest evergreen title, and a New Super Mario Bros game would also be a big evergreen title and they could develop one in relatively short time.
Nintendo was smart to get out a Mario Kart so soon (it has long proven to be an evergreen franchise), and Minecraft is also a big evergreen title (and being the only upgraded version with cross play and the enhanced graphics on a viable platform in Japan will surely help).
I'm really not sure if Splatoon 2 is going to be an evergreen title like the Wii U version, or more front loaded.
Either way Nintendo is set to dominate the software charts in japan for this year, and I really won't be surprised to see Minecraft and Mario Kart still in the top 10 through most of next year as well.
Next year I imagine we'll see Animal Crossing as well which is probably their biggest evergreen title, and a New Super Mario Bros game would also be a big evergreen title and they could develop one in relatively short time.
frankie_baby
Member
It'll certainly be more front loaded than the first (600k+ first week probably) but coming so early in swutch life means it'll be just as much an evergreen as the first if not more, the only thing tgat will stop it will be the inevitable splat3
Dragoon En Regalia
Member
Good top-10 hold for Ys VIII PS4, which should stick for at least another week if another Dengeki reveal for Sen no Kiseki III pushes fans to get the VIII LE just for the promo Sen III artbook.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Anyone think Nintendo will release a New Super Mario Bros. game on the Switch? The 3DS version I believe broke 2 million, and even the Wii U release hit a million.
They could announce one in the Fall as their big Summer title considering the low resources they take to make.
Just not sure how much momentum NSMB still has. I could see it at least being a million seller on the Switch.
Pair that with Animal Crossing in the winter and Nintendo could have a huge year of hardware sales.
Mario Party, though it doesn't have even a fraction of the pull it once did, could prove a big title given the Switch's format.
They could announce one in the Fall as their big Summer title considering the low resources they take to make.
Just not sure how much momentum NSMB still has. I could see it at least being a million seller on the Switch.
Pair that with Animal Crossing in the winter and Nintendo could have a huge year of hardware sales.
Mario Party, though it doesn't have even a fraction of the pull it once did, could prove a big title given the Switch's format.
frankie_baby
Member
I doubt it, i think even nintendo realise nsmb was overdone, id expect the next (non-maker) 2d mario will be something radical
Calm Mind
Member
I think Nintendo is done with the "New" series. Super Mario Maker has a better chance of happening. Animal Crossing is next year for certain.
It's almost guaranteed to be less evergreen in comparison, since current preorder numbers from COMG indicate Splatoon could sell pretty close to 1 million in its first week (or maybe like 800k, which is still massive), which is definitely going to be more than 9% of LTD sales like Splatoon's FW was. Still, Splatoon 2 most likely will have great legs nonetheless, and will remain for a very long time in the sales top 10.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I kind of forgot about Mario Maker. That pretty much makes NSMB unnecessary, and a sequel on the Switch could easily prove to be an evergreen title.
thestopsign
Member
Let's wait for next week and a significant hardware increase. This week already hurt your attach rate idea by Switch hardware going up ~10% and Zelda falling ~10%. Legs eventually die down, especially for single player games that will start to have more and more used copies on the market.
would be good. let's see...
Nintendo won't release another Mario Bros. if it is to sell only 1 million.
GregLombardi
Member
I guess I am very curious about Switch allocations at this point. I presume it will take them several months to ramp up production? I just feel like they are missing out on a lot of potential sales in the mean time.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
Is PS4 holding back Nier Automata??
The game has impressive legs for a PS4 game.
The game has impressive legs for a PS4 game.
All the traditional games companies having success in mobile reminds me that Capcom fucking suck at riding the wave.
Huh? Seiken Densetsu Collection came out the previous week, nobody could've talked about legs during launch week.
leatherhat
Member
Does anyone have any info on how the Japanese response to Monster Hunter World has been?
I think you remember wrong, the collection was never sold out.
Do'h posted in last weeks thread but quoting myself:
Also good that they've confirmed they will add new maps and stuff for Salmon Run.
I was thinking about this before but watching the Treehouse stream at the minute solidified it. Salmon Run is going to give Splatoon 2 extra life in Japan. I missed who it is(Producer/Director) but he was just talking about how it came about because they wanted to make it easy to play on the go with friends, you don't need 8 people to get a match going.
I'll wait Salmon Runter World on PS4
Also good that they've confirmed they will add new maps and stuff for Salmon Run.
thestopsign
Member
It didn't sell out, Famitsu had it at 40-60% sell through (probably higher end of that) and this week it is at 60-80% sell through.
SS
ßig
Unconfirmed Member
Champion Jockey Special and Winning Post 8 2017 (Switch version) are both coming out on September 14.
Prophane33
Member
That's crazy, considering FF XIII sold 1.4 million its first week. The industry really has changed.
Edit: FFX was 1.9 mil; FF XII was 1.8million
Skullwaker
Member
I wonder how much of that is the industry changing and how much is a result of the damage of the FFXIII trilogy (and previous games to a lesser extent).
Edit: also, good to see MK8D hitting 500k, becoming the first Switch game to do so (just edging out Zelda, which should reach that next week). Hopefully we see Switch hit the 1m milestone next week.
Prophane33
Member
It's likely a little of A and a little of B.
Dragon Quest sales have only gone up since DQ VII. XI will do a million each minimum on PS4 and 3DS in week 1. If you go by Amazon ranks, I believe the PS4 version may even do better than the 3DS version (which is the one I pre-ordered). Though I expect long-term sales to be better on 3DS.
Famitsu retail + digital
[PS4] NieR: Automata - 361.613
[PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 361.074
[PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below - 360.698
Kazuma must be rolling in his grave.
Nier is the 9th best selling game on PS4, next up is Black Ops III at 392k.
We'll be getting an update on Yakuza 6's LTD within a few weeks, must've sold some 20k or so since dissapearing from the charts, so it'll be back above Nier, not for long as Nier will sell more than it in the long run anyway.
Famitsu will actually give an updated LTD on plenty of games seeing how the 100th best selling game, using just the top 30, has sold just 7k
[PS4] NieR: Automata - 361.613
[PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 361.074
[PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below - 360.698
Kazuma must be rolling in his grave.
Nier is the 9th best selling game on PS4, next up is Black Ops III at 392k.
We'll be getting an update on Yakuza 6's LTD within a few weeks, must've sold some 20k or so since dissapearing from the charts, so it'll be back above Nier, not for long as Nier will sell more than it in the long run anyway.
Famitsu will actually give an updated LTD on plenty of games seeing how the 100th best selling game, using just the top 30, has sold just 7k
Edge_Maverick
Member
Damn...Yoko Taro, the overperformer.
Star Ocean is also doing quite nice (it recently surpassed 5 million downloads and it usually climbs to Top 20 when events are big enough). DQ Rivals will be interesting to see. This time everything seems to point to a great 1st half when compared to last year.
Jarod McChicken
Member
Any particular reaction from the japanese MH fanbase after the MH World announcement ? With 2 million views on Capcom Japan channel, it's already the 4th biggest video ever seen here (the number one being MH3P with 3 million, published 7 years ago). Also, the amount of dislike doesn't seem higher than on other MH videos.
I don't have time to read them all, but from what I have read, reactions are mixed. Generally positive, however some disappointment, "doesn't look like MH", "Looks good", "Wish I could play with my friends (physically)", "Now I have to buy a PS4", "Now they are just dinosaurs", "Not enough content", etc.