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Sales-Age Media Create Sales: Week 23, 2017 (Jun 05 - Jun 11)

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
610
Combined, both versions of Zelda BOTW have sold 625 308 units. To reach 1 million units before the end of the year, they need to sell at least 374692 units during the next 29 weeks, and that’s about 12 920 units per week.
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
2
1,325
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.

And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success :)
I agree. Even in the minor variations week to week Zelda has seen steady small decline despite there being a few thousand more units on the shelves some weeks. It should see a slight bump next week with the increased Switch stock. It will be really telling, big picture-wise, how big that increase is comparatively to the Switch stock increase.

Combined, both versions of Zelda BOTW have sold 625 308 units. To reach 1 million units before the end of the year, they need to sell at least 374692 units during the next 29 weeks, and that's about 12 920 units per week.
It sold 11,119 total this week in Media Create. So under that weekly mark already.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
We can have a better estimate for Seiken Densetsu shipment this week, since sell-though increased.

It's between 50 and 60k, maybe closer to 50.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,845
1
400
Sofia
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.

And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success :)
BOTW will make it to 1 million #Believe


I don't think so :(

I agree. Even in the minor variations week to week Zelda has seen steady small decline despite there being a few thousand more units on the shelves some weeks. It should see a slight bump next week with the increased Switch stock. It will be really telling, big picture-wise, how big that increase is comparatively to the Switch stock increase.



It sold 11,119 total this week in Media Create. So under that weekly mark already.

So if Nintendo resolves the manufacturing issues, can we all agree that the Switch could sell over 4 million in Japan by the end of the year?

If the Switch sells over 4 million by the end of the year there are weeks where it would need to sell north of 100K.

You all don't think its feasible that Zelda BotW is going to remain a compelling game for new buyers. You seem to think because previous Zelda followed a particular sales trend in Japan that BotW would follow a similar trend despite BotW already doing statistically better than prior titles on systems with much larger audiences.

Switch has 4 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 20% attach rate for the rest of the year

Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 12.5% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year

Switch has 4.5 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 14% attach rate for the rest of the year

Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 10.5% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year

Switch has 5 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 12.5% attach rate for the rest of the year

Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 9.25% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year


None of this accounts for digital sales or additional Wii U Zelda sales.

Why do you guys think Zelda is going to have lower than 10% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year in Japan?
 

darkstar0155

Member
Aug 15, 2012
1,151
0
0
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.

And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success :)
Doubt it will reach that on switch until a few holidays, but combined Switch and Wii U I still feel it will reach that by the time it hits its 1 year anniversary.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
I suspect 50-60K for ARMS week but Hiska will have important input if he can suss out store allotments again this week.
 

Crom

Junior Member
Nov 18, 2006
1,445
0
0
Valhalla
Still not seeing Zelda reaching 1m LTD on Switch. Adding the Wii U version and counting on a rise when the 2nd DLC comes (and Christmas) maybe could make it. If there's a bigger shipment next week (I'm expecting something closer to 50.000 than 75.000) it'll be interesting to see if Zelda Switch sales grow proportionally with the shipment or if it remains flat.

And Nier keeping the amazing legs... glad to see a Taro game having success :)
It will have long legs. The userbase is still under 1 mil due to shortages. In the years ahead when the userbase has grown I think it will
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
May 5, 2014
9,911
0
0
I suspect 50-60K for ARMS week but Hiska will have important input if he can suss out store allotments again this week.
I actually think it's gonna pull 70-75k. I think it'll over perform the expectations a bit. Legs will be important though
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Following from my earlier post, if the launch week for ARMS doesn't have at least 75k Switch hardware units available, then I would be concerned about supply issues.
Shipments will increase worldwide, not only in Japan. 50k top is what should expected. There was already a small rise last week.

Splatoon 2 and the weeks after it will define how high available stock can go, not Arms.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
Jun 25, 2006
7,122
2
0
With the impending physical release of the upgraded Minecraft for Switch, Splatoon 2, and continued sales of Zelda and Mario Kart I have a very real feeling that we're looking at a top 5 in media create dominated by Switch for most of the year.

Nintendo was smart to get out a Mario Kart so soon (it has long proven to be an evergreen franchise), and Minecraft is also a big evergreen title (and being the only upgraded version with cross play and the enhanced graphics on a viable platform in Japan will surely help).

I'm really not sure if Splatoon 2 is going to be an evergreen title like the Wii U version, or more front loaded.

Either way Nintendo is set to dominate the software charts in japan for this year, and I really won't be surprised to see Minecraft and Mario Kart still in the top 10 through most of next year as well.

Next year I imagine we'll see Animal Crossing as well which is probably their biggest evergreen title, and a New Super Mario Bros game would also be a big evergreen title and they could develop one in relatively short time.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
With the impending physical release of the upgraded Minecraft for Switch, Splatoon 2, and continued sales of Zelda and Mario Kart I have a very real feeling that we're looking at a top 5 in media create dominated by Switch for most of the year.

Nintendo was smart to get out a Mario Kart so soon (it has long proven to be an evergreen franchise), and Minecraft is also a big evergreen title (and being the only upgraded version with cross play and the enhanced graphics on a viable platform in Japan will surely help).

I'm really not sure if Splatoon 2 is going to be an evergreen title like the Wii U version, or more front loaded.

Either way Nintendo is set to dominate the software charts in japan for this year.
It'll certainly be more front loaded than the first (600k+ first week probably) but coming so early in swutch life means it'll be just as much an evergreen as the first if not more, the only thing tgat will stop it will be the inevitable splat3
 
Sep 11, 2011
13,698
11
660
Live you where?
Good top-10 hold for Ys VIII PS4, which should stick for at least another week if another Dengeki reveal for Sen no Kiseki III pushes fans to get the VIII LE just for the promo Sen III artbook.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
Jun 25, 2006
7,122
2
0
Anyone think Nintendo will release a New Super Mario Bros. game on the Switch? The 3DS version I believe broke 2 million, and even the Wii U release hit a million.

They could announce one in the Fall as their big Summer title considering the low resources they take to make.

Just not sure how much momentum NSMB still has. I could see it at least being a million seller on the Switch.

Pair that with Animal Crossing in the winter and Nintendo could have a huge year of hardware sales.

Mario Party, though it doesn't have even a fraction of the pull it once did, could prove a big title given the Switch's format.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
Anyone think Nintendo will release a New Super Mario Bros. game on the Switch? The 3DS version I believe broke 2 million, and even the Wii U release hit a million.

They could announce one in the Fall as their big Summer title considering the low resources they take to make.
I doubt it, i think even nintendo realise nsmb was overdone, id expect the next (non-maker) 2d mario will be something radical
 

Calm Mind

Member
May 16, 2016
4,771
2
0
Anyone think Nintendo will release a New Super Mario Bros. game on the Switch? The 3DS version I believe broke 2 million, and even the Wii U release hit a million.

They could announce one in the Fall as their big Summer title considering the low resources they take to make.

Just not sure how much momentum NSMB still has. I could see it at least being a million seller on the Switch.

Pair that with Animal Crossing in the winter and Nintendo could have a huge year of hardware sales.
I think Nintendo is done with the "New" series. Super Mario Maker has a better chance of happening. Animal Crossing is next year for certain.
 

Zedark

Member
Feb 22, 2016
5,220
0
290
With the impending physical release of the upgraded Minecraft for Switch, Splatoon 2, and continued sales of Zelda and Mario Kart I have a very real feeling that we're looking at a top 5 in media create dominated by Switch for most of the year.

Nintendo was smart to get out a Mario Kart so soon (it has long proven to be an evergreen franchise), and Minecraft is also a big evergreen title (and being the only upgraded version with cross play and the enhanced graphics on a viable platform in Japan will surely help).

I'm really not sure if Splatoon 2 is going to be an evergreen title like the Wii U version, or more front loaded.

Either way Nintendo is set to dominate the software charts in japan for this year, and I really won't be surprised to see Minecraft and Mario Kart still in the top 10 through most of next year as well.

Next year I imagine we'll see Animal Crossing as well which is probably their biggest evergreen title, and a New Super Mario Bros game would also be a big evergreen title and they could develop one in relatively short time.
It's almost guaranteed to be less evergreen in comparison, since current preorder numbers from COMG indicate Splatoon could sell pretty close to 1 million in its first week (or maybe like 800k, which is still massive), which is definitely going to be more than 9% of LTD sales like Splatoon's FW was. Still, Splatoon 2 most likely will have great legs nonetheless, and will remain for a very long time in the sales top 10.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
Jun 25, 2006
7,122
2
0
I doubt it, i think even nintendo realise nsmb was overdone, id expect the next (non-maker) 2d mario will be something radical
I kind of forgot about Mario Maker. That pretty much makes NSMB unnecessary, and a sequel on the Switch could easily prove to be an evergreen title.
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
2
1,325
So if Nintendo resolves the manufacturing issues, can we all agree that the Switch could sell over 4 million in Japan by the end of the year?

If the Switch sells over 4 million by the end of the year there are weeks where it would need to sell north of 100K.

You all don't think its feasible that Zelda BotW is going to remain a compelling game for new buyers. You seem to think because previous Zelda followed a particular sales trend in Japan that BotW would follow a similar trend despite BotW already doing statistically better than prior titles on systems with much larger audiences.

Switch has 4 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 20% attach rate for the rest of the year

Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 12.5% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year

Switch has 4.5 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 14% attach rate for the rest of the year

Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 10.5% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year

Switch has 5 million owners by the end of 2017:
Switch version >1 million
- 12.5% attach rate for the rest of the year

Wii U + Switch version >1 million
- 9.25% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year


None of this accounts for digital sales or additional Wii U Zelda sales.

Why do you guys think Zelda is going to have lower than 10% attach rate on the Switch for the rest of the year in Japan?
Let's wait for next week and a significant hardware increase. This week already hurt your attach rate idea by Switch hardware going up ~10% and Zelda falling ~10%. Legs eventually die down, especially for single player games that will start to have more and more used copies on the market.
 

GregLombardi

Member
Dec 5, 2008
6,092
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0
I guess I am very curious about Switch allocations at this point. I presume it will take them several months to ramp up production? I just feel like they are missing out on a lot of potential sales in the mean time.
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
Aug 30, 2005
22,609
0
0
32
Toronto, ON
Hopefully they manage to ship at least 50k units for Arms launch, even if Arms doesn't do that great.
 

Usobuko

Banned
Feb 3, 2013
12,695
0
385
Since they've stabilized the servers, SINoALICE has been sitting at #2-#3 on the top grossing grossing charts for several days now. Square Enix might have finally found another major mobile hit. It's a bit early to say for certain though.

Between this and the moderate success of Bravely Default, they're already going endlessly better than last fiscal year as far as new titles go.
All the traditional games companies having success in mobile reminds me that Capcom fucking suck at riding the wave.
 

mao2

Member
Jun 22, 2012
3,280
0
0
I just noticed that Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege is the Media Create chart. It's quite remarkable the game debuted with only 23,402 copies about a year and a half ago, but continues to sell and has now topped 200K copies.
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
3
0
Do'h posted in last weeks thread but quoting myself:

I was thinking about this before but watching the Treehouse stream at the minute solidified it. Salmon Run is going to give Splatoon 2 extra life in Japan. I missed who it is(Producer/Director) but he was just talking about how it came about because they wanted to make it easy to play on the go with friends, you don't need 8 people to get a match going.

I'll wait Salmon Runter World on PS4 :p
Also good that they've confirmed they will add new maps and stuff for Salmon Run.
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
475
And events fo it as well (as in more than just splatfests)!
They've really understood how to make a live game with S1.
 

Rob2K19

Member
Nov 3, 2015
834
0
0
Thanks to FF XV charting last week, we know it is at 997k this week. 3 more weeks to 1 million physical sales.
 
ß

ßig

Unconfirmed Member
Champion Jockey Special and Winning Post 8 2017 (Switch version) are both coming out on September 14.
 

sphinx

the piano man
Nov 21, 2006
15,738
0
1,360
Germany
never in my life would I have thought a mainline Zelda game could be an evergreen in Japan.

congrats to the series, finally managed to keep the attention of gamers in Japan
 

Skullwaker

Member
Dec 3, 2015
629
0
250
Texas
That's crazy, considering FF XIII sold 1.4 million its first week. The industry really has changed.
I wonder how much of that is the industry changing and how much is a result of the damage of the FFXIII trilogy (and previous games to a lesser extent).

Edit: also, good to see MK8D hitting 500k, becoming the first Switch game to do so (just edging out Zelda, which should reach that next week). Hopefully we see Switch hit the 1m milestone next week.
 

Prophane33

Member
Feb 6, 2008
2,594
1
870
From Nakameguro to Everywhere
I wonder how much of that is the industry changing and how much is a result of the damage of the FFXIII trilogy (and previous games to a lesser extent).
It's likely a little of A and a little of B.

Dragon Quest sales have only gone up since DQ VII. XI will do a million each minimum on PS4 and 3DS in week 1. If you go by Amazon ranks, I believe the PS4 version may even do better than the 3DS version (which is the one I pre-ordered). Though I expect long-term sales to be better on 3DS.
 

Ōkami

Member
May 10, 2015
3,585
1
0
Famitsu retail + digital

[PS4] NieR: Automata - 361.613
[PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 361.074
[PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below - 360.698

Kazuma must be rolling in his grave.

Nier is the 9th best selling game on PS4, next up is Black Ops III at 392k.

We'll be getting an update on Yakuza 6's LTD within a few weeks, must've sold some 20k or so since dissapearing from the charts, so it'll be back above Nier, not for long as Nier will sell more than it in the long run anyway.

Famitsu will actually give an updated LTD on plenty of games seeing how the 100th best selling game, using just the top 30, has sold just 7k
 

Edge_Maverick

Member
Aug 1, 2009
1,388
0
0
Brazil
twitter.com
Since they've stabilized the servers, SINoALICE has been sitting at #2-#3 on the top grossing grossing charts for several days now. Square Enix might have finally found another major mobile hit. It's a bit early to say for certain though.

Between this and the moderate success of Bravely Default, they're already going endlessly better than last fiscal year as far as new titles go.
Damn...Yoko Taro, the overperformer.

Star Ocean is also doing quite nice (it recently surpassed 5 million downloads and it usually climbs to Top 20 when events are big enough). DQ Rivals will be interesting to see. This time everything seems to point to a great 1st half when compared to last year.
 
Mar 31, 2013
1,893
0
0
37
France
Any particular reaction from the japanese MH fanbase after the MH World announcement ? With 2 million views on Capcom Japan channel, it's already the 4th biggest video ever seen here (the number one being MH3P with 3 million, published 7 years ago). Also, the amount of dislike doesn't seem higher than on other MH videos.
 

KtSlime

Member
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
0
0
Tokyo
Any particular reaction from the japanese MH fanbase after the MH World announcement ? With 2 million views on Capcom Japan channel, it's already the 4th biggest video ever seen here (the number one being MH3P with 3 million, published 7 years ago). Also, the amount of dislike doesn't seem higher than on other MH videos.
I don't have time to read them all, but from what I have read, reactions are mixed. Generally positive, however some disappointment, "doesn't look like MH", "Looks good", "Wish I could play with my friends (physically)", "Now I have to buy a PS4", "Now they are just dinosaurs", "Not enough content", etc.