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[Minsc]

If they haven't stockpiled a bunch of Splatoon 2 bundles it's going to be pretty bad.

Even if Nintendo has a stockpile (which they certainly do to some extent), does it even make much of a difference? So they sell 70 or 80k hardware for the release week of Splatoon 2, then what? It's back to the 30k baseline for a long time again, imo.

 

[BitStyle]

Switch stays bodied by shortages.

Nice PS4 bump for Stormblood

 

[Mpl90]

For the new page

I'll be bold here...if the supply helps, I can see this happening. I don't see so implausbile Splatoon 2 acting similarly to New Super Mario Bros. on DS back in 2006, sales-wise, and that would translate into weeks after weeks where hardware sales stay at the 100,000 level. But, again, the supply needs to be there.

 

[Kebiinu]

Switch stock is finally starting to worry me. I really hope they get it together, cause Splatoon 2 is right around the corner...

 

[Zedark]

.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Honestly if there really is a NAND shortage and that's affecting Switch sales I really don't understand what they are doing with the SNES/Super Famicom classic. The only way it makes sense is if the type of storage they're using for that is 100% not an option for the Switch, otherwise this seems almost irresponsible.

As an investor I'm kinda pissed about it.

 

[Mpl90]

Even if it has, does it even make a difference? So they sell 70 or 80k hardware for the release week of Splatoon 2, then what? It's back to the 30k baseline for a long time again, imo.

Honest question: do you believe this situation will never improve, in spite of how Nintendo has already established July will be better, especially once Splatoon 2 will release, and that the production will see major improvements during Fall? I mean, do you honestly believe Switch will sell 30,000 per week even during the Holidays? That's honestly a scenario I never see happening, not even in one million years.

 

[schuelma]

Even if Nintendo has a stockpile (which they certainly do to some extent), does it even make much of a difference? So they sell 70 or 80k hardware for the release week of Splatoon 2, then what? It's back to the 30k baseline for a long time again, imo.

Given Nintendo's public statement about supply improving starting in July and the software lineup from Splatoon until end of September I would be surprised if supply doesn't improve in 3 weeks.

 

[Fdkn]

A small weekly increase for PS4 doesn't sound weird with some game releases? Not sure what the sarcasm is about.

The effect of a second expansion to a MMO and a sub 5k game on hardware is negligible, the system is just selling like it always does despite some predictions of ps4 crattering because there were no games past march-april.

 

[LordRaptor]

Also, was Locoro ever popular in Japan?

It did ~32k first week ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[jett]

Arms dropped 71%. How is that a good hold?

 

[Kenzodielocke]

I assume Stormblood does better digitally?

 

[jonno394]

Honestly if there really is a NAND shortage and that's affecting Switch sales I really don't understand what they are doing with the SNES/Super Famicom classic. The only way it makes sense is if the type of storage they're using for that is 100% not an option for the Switch, otherwise this seems almost irresponsible.

As an investor I'm kinda pissed about it.

Because the SNES will use like 2GB NAND whereas the Switch will need 32GB NAND. The SNES isn't taking flash memory away from the switch.

 

[kuroneko0509]

Honestly if there really is a NAND shortage and that's affecting Switch sales I really don't understand what they are doing with the SNES/Super Famicom classic. The only way it makes sense is if the type of storage they're using for that is 100% not an option for the Switch, otherwise this seems almost irresponsible.

As an investor I'm kinda pissed about it.

different supplier, capacity, model. you don't need a high speed ones for snes mini for example

 

[Jacobson]

Nintendoomed.

 

[Loudninja]

Farpoint seems to be a big success for the small studio.

 

[Malakai]

Honestly if there really is a NAND shortage and that's affecting Switch sales I really don't understand what they are doing with the SNES/Super Famicom classic. The only way it makes sense is if the type of storage they're using for that is 100% not an option for the Switch, otherwise this seems almost irresponsible.

As an investor I'm kinda pissed about it.

The NES classic used like 512 MB vs 32 GB for the Switch. It wouldn't shock me that the SNES classic is using a much smaller memory size.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Because the SNES will use like 2GB NAND whereas the Switch will need 32GB NAND

The factories that had to set up production lines for the 2GB NAND chips could have been retooled to make more 32GB NAND chips. The actual size of the chips matters little to the production lines.

It only makes sense if they're using a completely different supplier who doesn't have the capacity to produce 32GB NAND chips (or chips of the necessary speed/quality). Which could definitely be the case.

But it rubs me the wrong way, especially when they're going to be making the SNES Classic another hard to find item this year, seemingly on purpose.

It was already pointed out in the last thread, for the SNES Classic Mini, Nintendo wouldn't be using eMMC from Samsung or Toshiba since they don't need memory with high read and write speeds for what the SNES Mini Classic does.

Someone else pointed out the eMMC used in the NES Mini Classic is from Spansion (512MB SLC NAND) so that makes sense that they went with a different manufacturer for the NES Classic.

Ah I didn't see that confirmed, that's good to know then.

 

[ggx2ac]

Honestly if there really is a NAND shortage and that's affecting Switch sales I really don't understand what they are doing with the SNES/Super Famicom classic. The only way it makes sense is if the type of storage they're using for that is 100% not an option for the Switch, otherwise this seems almost irresponsible.

As an investor I'm kinda pissed about it.

It was already pointed out in the last thread, for the SNES Classic Mini, Nintendo wouldn't be using eMMC from Samsung or Toshiba since they don't need memory with high read and write speeds for what the SNES Mini Classic does.

Someone else pointed out the eMMC used in the NES Mini Classic is from Spansion (512MB SLC NAND) so that makes sense that they went with a different manufacturer for the NES Classic.

 

[Minsc]

Honest question: do you believe this situation will never improve, in spite of how Nintendo has already established July will be better, especially once Splatoon 2 will release, and that the production will see major improvements during Fall? I mean, do you honestly believe Switch will sell 30,000 per week even during the Holidays? That's honestly a scenario I never see happening, not even in one million years.

I think they've overestimated their ability to met demand by a large amount. Switch shortages aren't exclusive to Japan, and production increases will be split in many directions. I expect Switch to be supply limited past the holidays, as far as exact amounts, I do think they'll get beyond a 30k baseline in the Fall as you say, however I don't expect that Fall baseline to be increased significantly (beyond double) for the holidays, because demand will be great everywhere, so they won't be able to direct extra production to just one place greatly increasing supply. All just my pessimistic guesses, but it does seem being conservative with Switch supply is the way to go from the data we have so far. Certainly a 20-ish to ~40k hardware bump for a major title like ARMs, then back to ~20k doesn't instill much confidence (for making guesses of Switch seeing 200k+ sales for Splatoon 2 week, or beyond 200k sales weekly in the holidays).

 

[thestopsign]

I'll be bold here...if the supply helps, I can see this happening. I don't see so implausbile Splatoon 2 acting similarly to New Super Mario Bros. on DS back in 2006, sales-wise, and that would translate into weeks after weeks where hardware sales stay at the 100,000 level. But, again, the supply needs to be there.

It isn't the same situation because I really doubt Nintendo could put out that level of stock on a weekly basis while saving for holiday stock as well. The DS/DS Lite were just much easier to produce machines.

 

[Chris1964]

But it rubs me the wrong way, especially when they're going to be making the SNES Classic another hard to find item this year, seemingly on purpose.

What's the purpose?

 

[Kresnik258]

100,000 worldwide already seems solid considering its probably pretty low budget.

I guess. I wonder how much higher they'll go than that, I can't see it lighting up western charts either, but at least they'd already sorted a western release. Kadokawa seem pretty up on worldwide releases - they must know how much of an audience they've got outside of Japan.

 

[twothunder]

hoping that ARMS will keep going in the next few weeks
Switch finally over a million but that's overshadowed by it's lack of stock.
Even dropping below PS4. Come on Nintendo

I do worry for the next few weeks though. if those splatoon pre-order numbers become reality. the lack of stock will turn into a nightmare.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

At this point Nintendo should try for a slightly lower price Switch SKU with less internal memory (8-16GB) from a different supplier to try and alleviate some of these stock problems. Even if it affects the performance of games loading from there to an extent.

 

[Living the Dream]

This is all on Kimishima.

No this is Iwata's fault for approving a console that would bunt heads with Apple & other Mobile Companies.

 

[ggx2ac]

No this is Iwata's fault for approving a console that would bunt heads with Apple & other Mobile Companies.

If the Wii U was successful we would have had this problem anyway since it also uses 32GB of NAND flash memory.

 

[Tonton]

09./06. [PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2017.05.25} (¥6.800) - 5.042 / 53.006 (+7%)
I'm loving these Ys VIII legs, I was expecting it to do around Tokyo Xanadu eX+ but it's doing a lot better, I wonder how far it'll go. Could it get close to Vita numbers?

 

[Skittzo0413]

What's the purpose?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1397418

A Gamestop manager after a strategy meeting about the SNES Classic is basically saying the purpose of the product is to both get Nintendo's name into headlines and get more people into retail stores to buy their other products (like the Switch). Which makes plenty of sense, business-wise. But seems like a very slimy move.

At least this seems to be the case for NOA, where preorders will likely never be available. Maybe it's different for NCL.

 

[Mpl90]

It isn't the same situation because I really doubt Nintendo could put out that level of stock on a weekly basis while saving for holiday stock as well. The DS/DS Lite were just much easier to produce machines.

Yeah, that's why I said "if the supply was there", both hardware-wise and software-wise. If the supply improves well enough, even if not on those high levels, I can still see Splatoon 2 becoming something quite similar to NSMB/Animal Crossing: WW in terms of sales pacing, but with lower weekly sales due to supply constraints.

 

[Living the Dream]

If the Wii U was successful we would have had this problem anyway since it also uses 32GB of NAND flash memory.

So again; Iwata is at fault. Great developer. Horrible business leader.

 

[Chris1964]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1397418

A Gamestop manager after a strategy meeting about the SNES Classic is basically saying the purpose of the product is to both get Nintendo's name into headlines and get more people into retail stores to buy their other products (like the Switch). Which makes plenty of sense, business-wise. But seems like a very slimy move.

At least this seems to be the case for NOA, where preorders will likely never be available. Maybe it's different for NCL.

So, Switch will be in full supply for holidays?

 

[PSFan]

So, will MS even bother releasing the Xbox One X in Japan? I can't see it doing better than the original.

 

[1st Course]

Even if Nintendo has a stockpile (which they certainly do to some extent), does it even make much of a difference? So they sell 70 or 80k hardware for the release week of Splatoon 2, then what? It's back to the 30k baseline for a long time again, imo.

It seemed unlikely at first but now I'm now really starting to believe that these issues won't be sorted out until 2018 (after iPhone 8 launch quarter)

 

[Skittzo0413]

So, Switch will be in full supply for holidays?

Absolutely no way it will be in full supply, but the supply is obviously going to be much greater. I have no idea why they feel the need to try to increase demand even more with a hard to find SNES Classic but that seems to be what the Gamestop manager got from that meeting. He also says it'll probably lift 3DS and software sales as well.

Who knows, maybe it's just his read on the situation and not what the actual purpose behind the product is, but the fact that NOA is again refusing preorders makes me believe he's right. So it could very well just be an NOA problem.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

If the SNES Classic (and NES Classic) were long-term products for Nintendo, I could see why it would launch this year. It being a limited edition item seems like it'll take attention away from Switch. I really don't understand why it's launching this year.

 

[Chris1964]

If SNES Classic is supposed to be released in order to push Switch, Nintendo must be in position to provide huge shipments in holidays, there is no other way to read into this.

 

[silva1991]

So, will MS even bother releasing the Xbox One X in Japan? I can't see it doing better than the original.

I will be surprised if they do.

 

[NotLiquid]

Arms dropped 71%. How is that a good hold?

I wouldn't call it a great hold but the attach rate is probably kneecapped by there not being a lot of consoles to push alongside it. Famitsu numbers are a bit rosier though, as the LTD there is 154k.

 

[NintendosBooger]

So again; Iwata is at fault. Great developer. Horrible business leader.

Nintendo issued a statement they'd be ramping up production of the Switch soon, which suggests it was always within their control to produce more if given time. Kimishima assumed control back in 2015, so how the F is this not his fault?

 

[1st Course]

No this is Iwata's fault for approving a console that would bunt heads with Apple & other Mobile Companies.

About every electronic device use NAND.

Even XB1 use NAND.

 

[Skittzo0413]

If SNES Classic is supposed to be released in order to push Switch, Nintendo must be in position to provide huge shipments in holidays, there is no other way to read into this.

If that's the case then I'll be very happy with that. What kind of numbers could they put up if the Switch isn't supply constrained this Holiday?

 

[Living the Dream]

About every electronic device use NAND.

Even XB1 use NAND.

It isn't the 32GB that the iPhone uses.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

No this is Iwata's fault for approving a console that would bunt heads with Apple & other Mobile Companies.

Ah yes, Iwata knew back in early 2015 there would be NAND shortages in the middle of 2017.

 

[Minsc]

If that's the case then I'll be very happy with that. What kind of numbers could they put up if the Switch isn't supply constrained this Holiday?

Or better yet, what kind of numbers do people feel seeing Switch hardware sell in late Nov. and Dec. and would be considered a failure? Would 100k/week be a failure? 200k/week? 400k/week? I guess it really could be anything, but if the demand is there for another 2-3 million Switches and then some, we should hope they could sell at least 250k/week throughout a good portion of Q4.

 

[Cornbread78]

How is that Stormblood bump compared to Heavensward?

 

[Nibel]

Now the apology makes sense

 

[Living the Dream]

Can someone link me to the apology so if I'm wrong I don't continue to embarrass myself?

 

[Charamiwa]

More than anything I think this ridiculous shortage really hurt the software. Nintendo has 3 big games to push right now but they can't really progress because the stock just isn't there. And when it'll finally be sorted out you'll have Splatoon 2, MHXX, Odyssey...

Now was Arms' time to shine but it can't do much.

 

[boiled goose]

So again; Iwata is at fault. Great developer. Horrible business leader.

Iwata clearly not perfect.. but Wii and DS did exist.