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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2015 (Jul 13 - Jul 19)

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
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theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
http://www.vg247.com/2012/01/27/3ds-is-now-nintendos-fastest-selling-console-worldwide/

The 3DS wasn't the fastest launch, but the fastest selling after the first 52 weeks. This is in each of Japan, US and Europe.



Yes I am talking Japan. Lets say 4DS launches with Pokemon. That's a killer app that can get it to 4 or 5 million. Monster Hunter which I assume has a largely distinct audience would sell another 2 or 3 million systems. Animal Crossing which has a different appeal in many ways as well to some extent could sell another couple million systems. That's approaching 10M just on the back of 3 killer apps(let's assume there's also an ok library of smaller games to go with them).

Then you could have Yokai Watch as well as other potential million or double million sellers like Mario/Kart/Smash/Splatoon.

Now in reality this won't happen since they'll probably spread the games out over a couple of years rather than get them all out at launch, but if they did then 10M in year is achievable. 3DS did 5M the first year(Feb 2011 to Feb 2012) having struggled with the launch price. So realistically I think 4DS will sell 6-7M the first two years and then most likely decline the third year.
10 millions in the first year is way, waaay over-optimistic for the first year. Even assuming the game you mention will release in the first year, I don't see it reasonable. The DS, the Holy God in Japan, "only" obtained to sell 8,000,000 in its best year (damn, what a monster it was), and that was due to Touch Generation craze still going on. Honestly, I don't even know if Nintendo could ship 10,000,000 in Japan alone in the first year, assuming its release in other territories is around the same time as Japan. 6-7 millions sound more "realistic" for very optimistic forecasts, IMHO...10 millions is just too much.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
10 millions in the first year is way, waaay over-optimistic for the first year. Even assuming the game you mention will release in the first year, I don't see it reasonable. The DS, the Holy God in Japan, "only" obtained to sell 8,000,000 in its best year (damn, what a monster it was), and that was due to Touch Generation craze still going on. Honestly, I don't even know if Nintendo could ship 10,000,000 in Japan alone in the first year, assuming its release in other territories is around the same time as Japan. 6-7 millions sound more "realistic" for very optimistic forecasts, IMHO...10 millions is just too much.
All we need is an Animal Crossing: Hypnotoad Edition.
 

TheXfactor

Member
Jul 17, 2013
1,406
0
0
3ds never once dropped in price, just increased value after the price drop 4 years ago. Their profit margins on the 3ds must be amazing, its tech is no where near up to date for a 199.99 price point(yes im talking a bout the new one)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
All we need is an Animal Crossing: Hypnotoad Edition.
In that case, it could even do 15 millions, with Nintendo opening factories in the Moon. You can't escape the HypnoToad



"Animal Crossing: HypnoToad edition, only for - ...I NEED TO BUY IT. I NEED TO BUY IT. PRAISE THE ALMIGHTY LORD HYPNOTOAD"
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,288
0
1,375
Lol, that would be awesome; but can't see it as a potential upside, you know.
The upside is, the quicker it comes out the quicker the userbase grows. Bigger userbase means bigger sales for all games and this could lead to more 3rd party games.

10 millions in the first year is way, waaay over-optimistic for the first year. Even assuming the game you mention will release in the first year, I don't see it reasonable. The DS, the Holy God in Japan, "only" obtained to sell 8,000,000 in its best year (damn, what a monster it was), and that was due to Touch Generation craze still going on.
The DS did 8M in it's best year, but it already had a userbase of 5 million or so. Launch year you're starting from zero so it is the easiest year to sell hardware if you have the right games and the right price because you easily get the low hanging fruit of the hardcore. After the first year then I agree it is unlikely for the 4DS to sell 8 or 10 million in a year. Although I also agree they wouldn't get all the games out and they may not produce enough systems. 12M+ after two years is what I'd think Nintendo will be aiming for.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,404
207
1,040
That's not what that says, lol.
Whoops, you're right, I misread >_>. Anyways, Vena, you changed your Avatar again?

The upside is, the quicker it comes out the quicker the userbase grows. Bigger userbase means bigger sales for all games and this could lead to more 3rd party games.



The DS did 8M in it's best year, but it already had a userbase of 5 million or so. Launch year you're starting from zero so it is the easiest year to sell hardware if you have the right games and the right price because you easily get the low hanging fruit of the hardcore. After the first year then I agree it is unlikely for the 4DS to sell 8 or 10 million in a year. Although I also agree they wouldn't get all the games out and they may not produce enough systems. 12M+ after two years is what I'd think Nintendo will be aiming for.
Are you talking about Worldwide or Japan? Worldwide it's definitely possible. Japan it's nigh impossible unless Nintendo hits it WAY WAY WAY out of the park. Like in a way more than the DS. You realize that's saying the console is going to have to sell close to 150K a week, and have a massive boost in the holidays? The DS was like 100K a week back in its best, and even that was already insane.
 

Fisico

Member
Jul 9, 2012
2,539
0
575
Japan
twitter.com
Japanese game selling more on PS4 than PS3? Are the tides slowly shifting (aka the PS3 is just dying?
Hum no.

First Day Sell-Through {2015.07.23}
[PS3] [PS4] Sengoku Basara 4: Sumeragi # <ACT> (Capcom) (¥6.469) (¥7.549) - Sales PS3 > PS4 - Sell-through PS4 > PS3 around 40%
It's the sellthrough that's better on PS4, not the sales.

12M+ after two years is what I'd think Nintendo will be aiming for.
We went from a potential 15M in 2 years to 12M, you're on the right track and should continue to lower your expectations :p
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
7
1,595
I think you'll be surprised when people start reacting to the announcement.
so much concern over the well-being of the dq franchise is going to crop up. it'll be heartwarming to see so many people who really honestly care about the future of the series.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
DQ has a good chance of decline ahead, very similar to FF in Japan. Kind of funny that going forward Capcom and Level 5 will have stronger IPs than either FF and maybe even DQ. While those two had been the biggest 3rd party IPs for a very long time even decades in Japan.
That might be, but it also has a good chance of selling well enough to be well worth making the games. I dont think a decline will have any big impact on the serie in the next years at least.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,404
207
1,040
Don't worry, DQXI will be canceled in favor of making DQ12 - Lightning Returns Part II, DQ13- LR III, and DQ14, Lightning IV - Lightning strikes in Mexico, only available on Tiger's R-Zone. There will be a brief release on Xbox One for a single hour in one Japanese store just to see how many people can fit into a single Bic Camera!

To be completely honest, I've never played a DQ game for any extended period of time (I own the original b/c of my dad), but I did at least think about playing 9, but never got around to it since my DS wasn't with me at the time. Let's just hope DQ11 turns out to be a good game, and people who want to play it get the chance to :).


So with Great Ace Attorney, it seems to be following the pattern of AAI2 thus far in terms of sales for the 1st 2 weeks. However, it looks like the sell-through is 80-100%. So is at least less of a failure than AAI2 in that way? Like was AAI2 overstocked or anything?
 

Pennywise83

Banned
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
So with Great Ace Attorney, it seems to be following the pattern of AAI2 thus far in terms of sales for the 1st 2 weeks. However, it looks like the sell-through is 80-100%. So is at least less of a failure than AAI2 in that way? Like was AAI2 overstocked or anything?
I don't see how a spin-off with new characters in a character-driven IP might be even remotely called a failure with 200k in the pocket when the new mainline entry sold around 350k units.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
595
Spain
GamesMaya was invited to the Dragon Quest event next week. Unfortunatly she isn't going because is night time, so I won't go either.
She invited me to the Tokyo Game Show press event instead :)
 

Fisico

Member
Jul 9, 2012
2,539
0
575
Japan
twitter.com
I don't see how a spin-off with new characters in a character-driven IP might be even remotely called a failure with 200k in the pocket when the new mainline entry sold around 350k units.
It certainly isn't a succes either when it will struggle to reach 250k LTD, the series peaked with Apollo at 530k (650k with the best version), AA5 wasn't a success in that regard and now you can clearly see the trend is not good and even if it's not a huge failure it is veeeery likely that's it's a dissapointment on Capcom's side.

I don't remember the GAF prediction, but on average I think almost everyone must have hoped for a better launch than that.
 

mao2

Member
Jun 22, 2012
3,280
0
0
Apparently Nippon Ichi's summer greeting card this year teases a new dungeon RPG project called "Refrain".
http://blog.hokanko-alt.com/archives/45675792.html

GamesMaya was invited to the Dragon Quest event next week. Unfortunatly she isn't going because is night time, so I won't go either.
She invited me to the Tokyo Game Show press event instead :)
Dang, that means no pics of the DQ event from you. Anyway I hope both of you will have a great time at TGS. :)
 

Darius

Banned
Nov 22, 2013
942
0
0
That might be, but it also has a good chance of selling well enough to be well worth making the games. I dont think a decline will have any big impact on the serie in the next years at least.
It´s a multi-million selling IP with an important big and loyal fanbase, it´s very redundant to expect sales that at the very least make it worth making the games. I have little to no doubt that even unlikely sales as low as 500k units would make it well worth to continue the series, if it´s just about reaching profitability.

so much concern over the well-being of the dq franchise is going to crop up. it'll be heartwarming to see so many people who really honestly care about the future of the series.
Talking about not very favourable but still very likely scenarios for the former and not anymore best-selling 3rd party IP or sales expectations in general must be forbidden in a sales discussion thread, otherwise people get concerned lol. We should agree to make unrealistic and overoptimistic forecasts instead...
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Nov 2, 2007
70,821
1
0
While this is the Japanese sales thread I really do wonder what SE will do with the Bravely series if the second one does incredibly well in the west like the first one did.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
It´s a multi-million selling IP with an importantly big and loyal fanbase, it´s very redundant to expect sales that at the very least make it worth making the games. I have little to no doubt that even unlikely sales as low as 500k units would make it well worth to continue the series, if it´s just about reaching profitability.
Yep, so a possible decline most likely wont have any real impact on the serie in the near future.
 

Kresnik258

Member
Jan 25, 2014
9,210
0
0
There...might be a good reason for that.
-gifs-
Libera me from chibi hell
That looks hobbyist Unity made for PlayStation Mobile or something.

I knew this was a cheaply made game, but that's quite something.

Famitsu weren't keen either:

Langrisser Re:Incarnation Tensei (3DS) – 6/7/7/6 [26/40]

Which I know doesn't mean a whole lot, but at least was an early indication.
 

Darius

Banned
Nov 22, 2013
942
0
0
Yep, so a possible decline most likely wont have any real impact on the serie in the near future.
The irony of this scenario is that Final Fantasy started to become a very close competitor to DQ, when it came to retail sales in Japan until Final Fantasy sales eroded in the past years so much that DQ ended up selling millions of units more than FF in their respective last mainline entry. In this scenario there´s a little chance that they´ll finally can be again a bit closer competitors in Japan. It´s ironic that instead of pushing FF to new heights, it´s the other way around that could lead to beeing closer competitors again.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
2
0
There...might be a good reason for that.



Libera me from chibi hell
The audacity to release something like this anywhere near the launch of FE IF...what were they thinking. Keep these shit away from dedicated gaming systems and try your luck on mobile.
 
Nov 26, 2006
24,196
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goldmetalsonic.wordpress.com
The audacity to release something like this anywhere near the launch of FE IF...what were they thinking. Keep these shit away from dedicated gaming systems and try your luck on mobile.
They should've called Rideon to have done it instead, see Mercenaries Saga 2 on 3DS, which is a $5 eShop game that originated on mobile:



Then hired the original artist and composer (well they at least did the latter anyway), this could've been something special!
 

Darius

Banned
Nov 22, 2013
942
0
0
Langrisser is a good example that less can be more, they should have axed the 3D battle sequences completely, they simply are atrocious. Even just the archaic sprite animations on the battlefield would have made a better impression.

@Mercenaries Saga 2
Gameplay videos look great, I´ll get it today.
 

Pennywise83

Banned
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
It certainly isn't a succes either when it will struggle to reach 250k LTD, the series peaked with Apollo at 530k (650k with the best version), AA5 wasn't a success in that regard and now you can clearly see the trend is not good and even if it's not a huge failure it is veeeery likely that's it's a dissapointment on Capcom's side.

I don't remember the GAF prediction, but on average I think almost everyone must have hoped for a better launch than that.
Plenty of IPs decreased wrt previous generation, but this doesn't mean they're not successful or disappointing. AA cannot be defined as disappointing right now. Actually, Capcom mentioned both AA5 and AAT as selling well - the former above expectations, and well above expectations in Western markets - where margins were higher because of digital delivery.

DGS is basically a new IP - the gameplay is sort of the same but changing the whole cast and scenario means offering a new game in a series that is beloved because of characters. The experiment has been mildly successful in my opinion, and given its novelty might have more legs than usual.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
610
Not surprised Langrisser turned out to be a turd. I mean, the whole pre-launch communication was fishy as hell.

Basically, they did everything they could to talk about the game as much as possible, as often as possible... without saying anything about it. Without showing anything.

Even though I paid particular attention to the game because of my website, the gif below is the first time I've seen the battle scenes in action. That's... quite something, I tell ya.

Langrisser is a good example that less can be more, they should have axed the 3D battle sequences completely, they simply are atrocious. Even just the archaic sprite animations on the battlefield would have made a better impression.
Nah, Langrisser is a good example of the perfect crap game, byproduct of a company who just wanted to cash-in on a "famous" franchise. I don't think the devs. were trying to make a game even remotely attractive or fun. Even if the game had been like Mercenaries Saga 2, it would have turned out bad. The pre-launch communication is proof of that.
 

Kresnik258

Member
Jan 25, 2014
9,210
0
0
DGS is basically a new IP - the gameplay is sort of the same but changing the whole cast and scenario means offering a new game in a series that is beloved because of characters.
I've seen you say a few times now that this is basically a new IP, but you're the only person I've seen hold that opinion. Don't Capcom themselves class this as part of the Ace Attorney series?

I mean, even 5pb consider their "science adventure" games part of the same series, even though each one throws out the cast of the characters from the previous game and tells a completely new story (until Steins;gate 0 hits, at least).
 

Darius

Banned
Nov 22, 2013
942
0
0
Nah, Langrisser is a good example of the perfect crap game, byproduct of a company who just wanted to cash-in on a "famous" franchise. I don't think the devs. were trying to make a game even remotely attractive or fun. Even if the game had been like Mercenaries Saga 2, it would have turned out bad. The pre-launch communication is proof of that.
There´s no doubt that it´s low budget title, my point is that by not bothering with these chibi 3D models, they would have made a better impression and on top of that even saved even more money.

In the following trailer they have made the right choice of not showing these and it made a much better impression.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZE60z9voRt4

"Archaic sprite animations" will cost way more than this.
I said archaic for a reason I´m refering to the on battlefield sprite animation seen in the above linked trailer of the same game.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,288
0
1,375
Are you talking about Worldwide or Japan? Worldwide it's definitely possible. Japan it's nigh impossible unless Nintendo hits it WAY WAY WAY out of the park. Like in a way more than the DS. You realize that's saying the console is going to have to sell close to 150K a week, and have a massive boost in the holidays? The DS was like 100K a week back in its best, and even that was already insane.
The 3DS sold 5M the first year without Pokemon, Animal Crossing or Yokai Watch. If these games came out the first year of the new system then they would be able to sell 10M in Japan alone. They'll probably be spread over 2 or 3 years, hence why I think sales of 6-7M a year for the first two years are realistic.

We went from a potential 15M in 2 years to 12M, you're on the right track and should continue to lower your expectations :p
I did say 12M+ :)
Depends on the release list since some of the big games might not come out until right at the end of year 2 or year 3.
 

Pennywise83

Banned
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
I've seen you say a few times now that this is basically a new IP, but you're the only person I've seen hold that opinion. Don't Capcom themselves class this as part of the Ace Attorney series?

I mean, even 5pb consider their "science adventure" games part of the same series, even though each one throws out the cast of the characters from the previous game and tells a completely new story (until Steins;gate 0 hits, at least).
Yes, of course: it has Gyakuten Saiban written in the title! The point is, Gyakuten Saiban is a series driven by characters - the fanbase follows the series mainly to see how characters interact with each other and develop, on top of the good gameplay and excellent writing. AAI sold 300k+ because it focused on one of the most popular characters in the series - Miles Edgeworth - even though the gameplay was quite different.

Therefore I was saying that taking away the most important part (i.e. characters) was risky, but eventually it paid off - DSG might sell north of 200k units which is quite good and if word-of-mouth is good, a sequel might do even better.

Capcom itself stated that DQS was going to be the start of a new series.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
610
So... Fire Emblem Fates getting a manga by Kibayashi (scenario in FEF) and Yuusuke (FEA AND FEF).

Source

Anime when? Musou collab when? ;)
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
The irony of this scenario is that Final Fantasy started to become a very close competitor to DQ, when it came to retail sales in Japan until Final Fantasy sales eroded in the past years so much that DQ ended up selling millions of units more than FF in their respective last mainline entry. In this scenario there´s a little chance that they´ll finally can be again a bit closer competitors in Japan. It´s ironic that instead of pushing FF to new heights, it´s the other way around that could lead to beeing closer competitors again.
Hard to say, in my opinion. Personally, i think that DQ9 saw record sales mainly due to the price (about 3000 Yen cheaper MSRP than DQ8 and FF13) and the huge popularity of the DS. The reception for DQ9 was also overall better compared to FF13 if im not mistaken. I think DQ9 could have reached those numbers even if FF13 had sold a million more or less copies. But who knows, its just a guess either way.


I'm looking forward to see the sales of the upcoming Dragon Quest games =)
 
Aug 14, 2014
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I wouldn't be. I'd prefer it was exclusive to one platform. Multiplatform development has a ton of drawbacks not limited to longer dev times, opportunity cost of resources, lowest common denominator design, etc.
Depends on which multiplatform. The difference between PS4/Vita, PS4/PS3, PS4/PS3/Vita, or PS4/PS3/Vita/WiiU is probably marginal to some degree, the operative question being whether a "last-gen" aka PS3 or Vita version is made or not. There would of course be another whole level of difference if you added 3DS to mix because 3DS-PS4 would be encompassing effectively three generations, and as I have argued, at that point both cost and quality reasons would likely mitigate in favor of two different games.

Its the same as in the West. Xbone/PS4 likely does not add that much in terms of development costs, whereas adding PS3/360 had a devastating effect on the scale and quality of Dragon Age Inquisition by Bioware's own admission.

The general trend in terms of hardware design seems to be towards universal libraries so I suspect that multi-platform development will become increasingly common in the future. The market is too small to put all of one's eggs in a single basket, except maybe for the 3DS, and there seems to be quite a few indications that many developers increasingly do not like developing for it at this point.
 

Darius

Banned
Nov 22, 2013
942
0
0
Hard to say, in my opinion. Personally, i think that DQ9 saw record sales mainly due to the price (about 3000 Yen cheaper MSRP than DQ8 and FF13) and the huge popularity of the DS. The reception for DQ9 was also overall better compared to FF13 if im not mistaken. I think DQ9 could have reached those numbers even if FF13 had sold a million more or less copies. But who knows, its just a guess either way.


I'm looking forward to see the sales of the upcoming Dragon Quest games =)
Was there a substantial increase in retail price for FF13 compared to previous FF main games that justifies the decline? Don´t know if you remember but FF13 is also a game that had seen very deep price slashes incredibly fast due to performing way under expectations. DQ9 also sold so much because they chose the right systems. I also doubt comparisons with DQ8 and especially DQ7 will end that much better. Anyway it is just a matter of how steep the decline will be compared to DQ9.

The more interesting thing is, what happens after DQ11, since a speculated PS3 version of DQ11 in 2016 will be responsible for the lion share of sales, it basically is the backbone of why DQ11 is even beeing considered for PS4 at this point in my opinion. Unless a DQ11 successor launches quite early this very backbone won´t be viable anymore, that´s the point were DQ really risks even further decline, since I doubt PS4 will pick up the slack adequately.
 

crinale

Member
Sep 25, 2008
5,986
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0
This is a pretty good example of why budgets go up even for low end titles.

Even if you're not making a high end games, consumers expect some level of improvement over previous generations.
Well as an engineer (not in gaming industry though) I think any company in sci & tech field are expected to output more (more fidelity, complexity or whatever) as time goes by while keeping the budget same. I know it won't always work like that but at least that's a very common demand exist in any type of industry.

The DS could run better than that.
I agree.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,288
0
1,375
The irony of this scenario is that Final Fantasy started to become a very close competitor to DQ, when it came to retail sales in Japan until Final Fantasy sales eroded in the past years so much that DQ ended up selling millions of units more than FF in their respective last mainline entry.
DQ had one entry on PSX whereas FF had 3. It's had less mainline entrys since then too. So not surprising that FF has suffered from more franchise fatigue. DQ VII sold around 4M whereas FF 7,8,9 sold over a combined 9M on PSX.
 
Well as an engineer (not in gaming industry though) I think any company in sci & tech field are expected to output more (more fidelity, complexity or whatever) as time goes by while keeping the budget same. I know it won't always work like that but at least that's a very common demand exist in any type of industry.
Right, there are a lot of tools to increase efficiency. Obviously it costs way less to make something that seems very impressive when you license Unity or Unreal than it would have 15 years ago.

That said, there's still a huge amount of art asset creation that goes on with video games which is rather difficult to exponentially increase efficiency on. People are trying with things like outsourcing to China or using the Unity Asset Store, but it's still a reality of the scenario.

Once you're at the high end you also have a ton of R&D work you need to make the amount of complexity you need work. Comparing the team size for DOS and Windows 10 is a good example of that for a code heavy problem.
 

crinale

Member
Sep 25, 2008
5,986
0
0
Right, there are a lot of tools to increase efficiency. Obviously it costs way less to make something that seems very impressive when you license Unity or Unreal than it would have 15 years ago.

That said, there's still a huge amount of art asset creation that goes on with video games which is rather difficult to exponentially increase efficiency on. People are trying with things like outsourcing to China or using the Unity Asset Store, but it's still a reality of the scenario.

Once you're at the high end you also have a ton of R&D work you need to make the amount of complexity you need work. Comparing the team size for DOS and Windows 10 is a good example of that for a code heavy problem.
Yeah I was just trying to generalize what customers expect (and what engineers are trying to do, at least). Limits do exist regarding optimization and adding value to your product, but again there's no excuse to make in front of customer hehe.

And if any other firm excels you in terms of value or efficiency then that is the time your company will start losing the order over others (or in gaming industry your games won't sell over others'). What a tough world we live in.